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专栏 - 苹果2_0

中国移动用户能不能用上iPhone 5

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年09月11日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
6.55亿中国移动用户拭目以待。新一代iPhone能否兼容中国移动的LTE网络?这个问题至关重要,因为它直接决定苹果能否打破持续四年之久的僵局,和中国移动成功牵手。而答案取决于苹果将采用哪种芯片。

    
中国用户疯狂追求iPhone 4S。
图片来源:Photo: MIC Gadget
 

    上周五,《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)一如往常,援引来自匿名“消息灵通人士”的说法称,苹果(Apple)将于下周发布的新款iPhone有望支持欧洲和亚洲制式的最高速无线4G LTE网络。

    这确实是个新闻,因为目前的LTE(长期演进技术)网络至少有40种之多,第一款支持LTE的苹果设备是去年3月发布的全新iPad,不过它仅支持美国和加拿大运营商的LTE网络。

    不过,《华尔街日报》的线人并未透露iPhone 5的LTE解调器是否兼容世界最大的运营商——中国移动(China Mobile)。中国移动拥有6.55亿移动用户,是威瑞森无线(Verizon Wireless)和美国电话电报移动公司(AT&T Mobility)两者用户数之和的三倍。这个问题至关重要,因为它直接决定苹果能否打破持续四年之久的僵局,和中国移动成功牵手。

    答案取决于苹果将采用哪种芯片。目前市面上已有数款芯片能够做到这点,而高通(Qualcomm)也已制造该产品一年有余。如果新款iPhone选择其中一款芯片,那么它在全球最大手机市场的目标用户群可以一举扩大两倍。

    但这并不意味着6.55亿中国移动用户都可以享受到高速4G网络——至少不是马上就可以。虽然中国移动拥有中国70%的市场份额,但其高速网络的建设速度非常缓慢。大部分用户仍在使用2G网络,只有不到20%的用户升级到了3G。尽管中国移动已开始试点4G,不过截止到今年5月,参与试点的城市只有6个。

    不过这一切都无关紧要。中国用户非常喜欢手机,他们总是迫不及待地更新换代,拿到最新款。今年1月,iPhone 4S在北京首发时,压倒性的需求曾迫使苹果不得不终止销售,而这种需求主要是受到了黄牛党的推动,他们忙着抢购iPhone,然后转手卖给中国移动的用户。今年初,中国移动宣布,其iPhone用户数已达到1,200万。虽然苹果并未和中国移动签约,而iPhone也不支持中移动的3G网络,但众多用户仍心甘情愿地使用蜗牛般的2G网络。

    译者:项航

    The Wall Street Journal, quoting the usual unnamed "people familiar with the matter," reported Friday that the new iPhone that Apple (AAPL) is expected to unveil next week will work on the fastest wireless 4G LTE networks in Europe and Asia.

    That's news because there are at least three dozen flavors of LTE (for long-term evolution), and the first Apple device to support the technology, the new iPad introduced last March, was only compatible with the bands used by U.S. and Canadian carriers.

    What the Journal's sources didn't say is whether the iPhone 5's LTE modem is compatible with the biggest carrier of them all: China Mobile (CHL), with 655 million wireless subscribers -- three times as many as Verizon Wireless (VZ) and AT&T Mobility (T) combined.

    It's a critical question -- one that could break the impasse that has prevented Apple from signing a contract with China Mobile for more than four years.

    The answer depends on which chipset Apple has decided to use. There are several on the market that will do the trick; Qualcomm (QCOM) has been making them for more than a year (seehere). If the new iPhone uses one of them, it could triple its addressable user base in the world's largest mobile phone market.

    Not that those 655 million subscribers will get to enjoy those 4G speeds -- at least not at first. Although China Mobile controls 70% of the Chinese mobile market, it has been slow to deploy the faster network protocols. The lion's share of its network is still running at 2G speeds; less than 20% has been upgraded to 3G. And although it has begun testing 4G hotspots, as of last May they were up and running in only six Chinese cities.

    But it almost doesn't matter. The Chinese love their cell phones, and they like to have the latest model. The crushing demand for the iPhone 4S that forced Apple to shut down sales in Beijing last January was fueled largely by scalpers snapping them up for resale to China Mobile users. Earlier this year, the carrier announced that even without a contract with Apple -- or an iPhone that could communicate with its home-grown 3G protocol -- there were already 12 million iPhones on its network running at sluggish 2G speeds.

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