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专栏 - 苹果2_0

谷歌强力整合生态系统对抗苹果

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年06月29日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
谷歌的计划是,赢得价格敏感型的平板电脑客户,然后引导他们购买更多搭载Android操作系统的设备,使用谷歌Play等自有服务,再依靠这些服务把这支由Android设备组成的乌合之众整合成能与苹果抗衡的平台。但问题是,谷歌的果冻豆、Play、Nexus 7以及the Q组合真的能赶上苹果iTunes吗?

Nexus Q媒体中心

    最大的惊喜:谷歌宣布,到场的6,000名与会者,每人都会获赠一部Nexus盖世(Galaxy)手机、一部Nexus平板和一台Nexus Q媒体中心。

    极具戏剧性的场面:特技表演者佩戴着装有视频摄像头的谷歌眼镜,表演了一系列惊险至极的特技动作:极限跳伞演员从一架飞机上高空跳伞,径直降落到莫斯克尼西会展中心的屋顶上;极限自行车运动员通过惊险的特技坡道,从一座建筑飞跃到另一座建筑上;最后,极限登山运动员沿着绳索从展中心中央天而降。

    场面上的热闹几乎掩盖了这样一个事实:除了Android手机销量独占鳌头,谷歌在其它方面几近全败,该公司几乎在各个前沿方向都扮演着追赶者角色。而谷歌Play和Nexus Q出现得实在有点迟了。微软(Microsoft)背靠Xbox 360的多媒体播放器已经拥有了巨大的装机量,而苹果的iTunes早在十年前就已经出现。

    分析师们没有浪费时间,他们第一时间将谷歌的新产品与苹果进行了对比:

    投资机构Topeka的布莱恩•怀特向客户发出了即时报告,他写道:“在我们看来,苹果的生态系统仍然是移动领域最好的,总计超过65万个应用程序,22万5,000个原生iPad应用程序。与其相比,谷歌应用程序的总数为60万个,但其中针对平板电脑的原生应用则少得可怜。苹果应用程序商店的注册帐号超过4亿,应用程序下载量超过300亿次,iCloud的用户数目前也达到了1.25亿。”

    资讯公司Forrester公司的詹姆斯•麦克奎维称:“谷歌从亚马逊身上看到,击败高端设备iPad的唯一途径就是赢得众多预备购买尺寸较小、价格较低的平板电脑的客户,然后引导这些客户购买更多由Android驱动的设备,更重要的是,引导他们使用谷歌Play等谷歌自有服务,以及观看YouTube上可能出现的付费视频节目。这些服务将成为一个秘密武器,把这支由Android设备组成的乌合之众整合成能与苹果抗衡的平台,从而与苹果竞争用户的使用时间,而不是高端设备的销售收入。

    投资公司ISI的布莱恩•马歇尔写道:“这台平板电脑199美元的定价,再加上新增增加的大量内容,有可能会将一些消费者吸引到Android生态系统。我们相信谷歌正在大幅改善其生态系统和Android,而且199美元的定价将有助于谷歌在平板电脑领域赢得消费者。然而,我们相信苹果仍遥遥领先,同时也对我们关于iPad销量的预测抱有信心(例如,2012年为6,400万部,2012年为8,000万部)。”

    译者:项航

    The biggest crowd pleaser: The announcement that all 6,000 attendees will be getting a free Nexus Galaxy phone, a Nexus 7 tablet and a Nexus Q media player.

    The dramatic highlight: The live-streamed video of Google Glass-wearing stuntmen performing a variety of death-defying feats: skydivers jumping out of a passing airplane to land on the roof of the Moscone West; cyclists leaping from building to building via bicycle ramps; mountain climbers rappelling down the side of the conference center.

    Almost lost in the hoopla is the fact that except for its lead in Android phone sales, Google is playing catch-up on almost every front. Google Play and the Nexus Q, in particular, are coming in late. Microsoft (MSFT) has a huge installed base of multi-media players in its XBox 360 and Apple has a decade-long head start with iTunes.

    Analysts wasted no time comparing Google's offerings to Apple's:

    "In our view," wrote Topeka's Brian White in a quick note to clients, "Apple's ecosystem still remains the best in the mobile device world with over 650,000 apps in total and 225,000 apps that are native to the iPad. This compares to 600,000 apps in total for Google and an insignificant amount that are native for tablets. Apple already has 400 million accounts on the App Store with more than 30 billion App downloads, while 125 million users have registered for iCloud."

    From Forrester's James McQuivey: "Learning a lesson from Amazon, Google can see that the only way to beat the premium-worthy iPad is to go for the millions of customers who are ready for smaller and cheaper tablets and then grow those customers into more Android powered devices and, more importantly, Google-powered services like Google Play and whatever paid video experience YouTube will likely create. That range of services will be the secret to stitching together this rag-tag fleet of Android gadgets into a platform that can compete with Apple for minutes of user's attention rather than premium device dollars."

    "The $199 tablet price point as well as improved content availability could draw some consumers to the Android ecosystem," wrote ISI's Brian Marshall. "We believe GOOG is making meaningful improvements to its ecosystem/Android and that the $199 price point could help GOOG gain some traction in tablets. However, we believe AAPL remains well ahead and are comfortable with our iPad estimates (e.g., 64mil in CY12, 80mil in CY13)."

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