苹果公司或许正试图最大限度地淡化谷歌对自身产品的影响力，不过投行派杰（Gene Munster）的分析师基尼•蒙斯特却认为，这并不会给谷歌带来多大的打击。

    据报道，苹果近日正准备在下一代iOS系统中预装自家地图，以取代当前默认的谷歌地图。而谷歌也不甘示弱，在自家地图中增添了3D模式作为回应。蒙斯特上周三在一封致客户的信中表示，谷歌与苹果的地图大战不大可能导致二者间的天平失衡。

    如果苹果的确在iPhone和iPad中弃用了谷歌地图，谷歌可能仍然不会放弃iOS这块大蛋糕，它也许会把谷歌地图变成一款独立的应用，放在苹果应用商店里供用户下载。蒙斯特认为，如果真的是这样，谷歌地图可能会迅速超越苹果应用商店里的其它免费谷歌应用（如搜索、Gmail、Google+、谷歌翻译等）。

    谷歌已经明确表态，公司认为谷歌产品在移动设备上的存在具有重要战略意义，尽管目前它所带来的收入还相对较少。

    据蒙斯特的估算，2012年谷歌移动业务的毛收入大约在45亿美元左右，其中的大头（40亿美元）来自搜索广告收入，其余（5亿美元）来自陈列式广告。他认为，iOS很可能将继续成为这笔收入的最大来源，即便不是最大来源，应该也相差不多。iOS为谷歌移动业务贡献了约40%的收入（约16亿美元）。扣除所谓的购置成本之后，谷歌手里还剩这些收入的一半，相当于2012年iOS贡献了谷歌公司总收入的2%。

    总之，蒙斯特指出：“如果谷歌地图不再是iOS的默认地图应用，我们不认为这会对上述假设产生任何实质性的冲击。”

    译者：朴成奎

    Apple (AAPL) may be trying to minimize Google's (GOOG) presence on its mobile screens, but Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster doesn't expect the search giant to feel much pain.

    In a note to clients issued late Wednesday, Munster suggests that the looming map wars -- in which Apple is reportedly poised to replace Google Maps as iOS's default mapping app, and to which Google has responded by beefing up its 3D mapping imagery -- is not likely to tip the balance one way or the other.

    If Apple does drop Google Maps from the iPhone and iPad, Google will probably stick around, turning it into stand-alone app on the App Store. Munster believes it could quickly overtake Google's other free iOS apps (Search, Gmail, Google+, Translate).

    Google has made it clear that it views its presence on mobile devices as an important strategic beachhead, even if the revenue it brings in today is relatively small.

    Munster estimates that Google will generate about $4.5 billion in gross mobile revenue in 2012, the lion's share ($4 billion) from search ads and the rest ($500 million) from display. He believes that iOS is likely to remain the biggest or close to the biggest source of that revenue, generating roughly 40% of the total (or $1.6 billion). Assuming Google keeps half (after subtracting so-called acquisition costs), iOS would generate about 2% of Google's total revenue in 2012.

    Bottom line, according to Munster: "We do not expect any material impact to these assumptions if Google Maps were to no longer be the default mapping application on iOS."