订阅

多平台阅读

微信订阅

杂志

申请纸刊赠阅

订阅每日电邮

移动应用

专栏 - Geoff Colvin

缘木求鱼:奥巴马指望制造业推动就业

Geoff Colvin 2011年09月21日

杰奥夫·科尔文(Geoff Colvin)为《财富》杂志高级编辑、专栏作家。美国在管理与领导力、全球化、股东价值创造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的评论员之一。拥有纽约大学斯特恩商学院MBA学位,哈佛大学经济学荣誉学位。
奥巴马总统对如何解决就业危机有着非常明确的远景,但问题在于,他完全搞错了方向。

    在通用电气(GE)董事长兼首席执行官杰夫•伊梅尔特的陪同下,美国总统奥巴马6月11日视察通用电气位于纽约洲斯克内克塔迪(Schenectady)的一家工厂时正在参观发动机。

    虽然民主党和共和党在很多事情上都意见相左,但有一件事情双方的看法却是一致的:即就业现在是美国的头等大事。对于如何推动就业增长,美国总统奥巴马及其共和党对手纷纷出谋划策,唯恐落在人后。经过双方激烈辩论一番之后,可能会出现一些不错的方案。不过,现在能对就业问题采取实际行动的只有美国总统。但不幸的是,他有可能会选择一个异想天开且注定会失败的方案。

    奥巴马总统眼中只有一种观点,即制造业岗位才是解决美国就业问题的关键。看看他最得意的就业刺激举措吧,也就是本月即将与他碰面的就业与竞争力委员会(Jobs and Competitiveness Council)。奥巴马是在纽约州克内克塔迪视察一个大型涡轮机工厂时宣布成立该委员会的,对于该工厂所创造的就业机会,当时他赞许有加地说,“我希望像这样的工厂能在美国遍地开花。”随后在6月份,他与该委员会在北卡罗来纳州德罕市的一家灯饰厂会面,并表示工人们“正在带领美国制造业王者归来。这才是我们赢得未来的基础。” 奥巴马在这些讲话中,有17次提到建筑制造,仅有1次提到服务,而且还是在“商品和服务”中一笔带过。

    奥巴马想讲述这样一个故事:过去十年美国制造业不幸衰落,但还是有机会重回昔日辉煌,并为广大美国民众带来高薪工作。 他在纽约州斯克内克塔迪郡谈及上次经济扩张时说,“过去是因为我们过度使用信用卡消费,经济才会落到这步田地。全球各地都在向我们出售大量商品。我们必须逆转这一局面。我们需要的是由我们发明的(技术)和制造的(产品)所推动的经济”。

    这个故事暗示我们在商场购买中国商品是因为美国制造业没落了,但它显然是占不住脚的。美国制造业在经济扩张时经历过飞速发展。“美国制造业”的价值每年都在增加。奥巴马总统所面临的重大、最核心的问题是,我们发展制造业所需的人数一年比一年少。

    这样一个不争的事实,却总是被奥巴马总统忽略。在美国和每个市场经济国家,制造业优势在于能不断利用更少的工人生产出更多的商品。这并非一个新出现的趋势。二次世界大战结束时,美国制造业工人占工人总数的比例达到39%的峰值。此后该比例一直稳步下滑,目前仅为9%。历史数据显示,美国制造业工人人数在1979年达到顶峰。现在美国制造业工人有1,180万,约为当时峰值的一半,尽管美国现在比以前更强大更富有,制造的产品也更多。举例来说,在1941年美国加入二战之前,制造业工人人数就比现在要多。

    这些数据应该都不足为奇,因为这样的场景我们以前就见识过。19世纪,美国农民占总就业人数的比例远超过60%,此后该比例一路下滑,到今天已经不足2%。在过去这一比例高达60%的时代,多数人最大的担心是挨饿。而如今不到2%的农民却生产出这么多的粮食,生产率水平如此之高,以至于肥胖成了威胁美国人健康的头号公敌。

    现在,只需更少的人手就能生产出更多、更好的东西,不论是玉米、汽车,还是其他实物产品。这是不可逆转的趋势。

    奥巴马总统对制造业的痴迷已经到了相当严重的程度。刚当上总统后不久,他在乔治城大学(Georgetown University)演讲时就对学生说:“我希望能再次看到最优秀、最聪明的美国人全身心地投入到制造业中去。”这话没错,更智能、更精湛和更高科技的制造业对美国而言的确是好事情。但是,我们都明白一点:制造业技术越先进,需要雇佣的劳动力就越少。在美国迫切需要更多工作机会的今天,想依靠制造业显然不靠谱。奥巴马总统即将与其就业与竞争力委员会碰面,他到时候会讲些什么可得听仔细了,因为美国的就业问题现在最不需要的就是异想天开的政策。

    Even Democrats and Republicans at each other's throats agree on one thing: Jobs are America's No. 1 issue. President Obama and his Republican challengers strive to outdo one another with ideas for job growth, and maybe some good will come of that debate. But right now the President is the only one in a position to take action on the problem. The bad news for the country is that he seems fixated on an approach that is delusional and doomed.

    President Obama is bedazzled by the idea of manufacturing jobs as the way forward. Just look at his most prominent jobs initiative, his Jobs and Competitiveness Council, which will meet with him at the White House this month. He announced the council's formation at a giant turbine factory in Schenectady, N.Y., praising the jobs it creates and saying, "I want plants like this all across America." He next met with the council in June at a lighting factory in Durham, N.C., telling the workers they're "leading the comeback of American manufacturing. This is where the future will be won." Total references to manufacturing and building things in those speeches: 17. Total references to services: one, and that was in the phrase "goods and services."

    The President is trying to create a narrative in which U.S. manufacturing fell into sad decline over the past decade but can be restored to its former glory and employ legions of Americans in high-paying jobs. "What was driving our economy was, we were spending a lot on credit cards," he said in Schenectady, talking about the previous economic expansion. "Folks were selling a lot to us from all over the world. We've got to reverse that. We want an economy that's fueled by what we invent and what we build."

    But that narrative, implying that U.S. manufacturing withered while we bought Chinese products at the mall, is simply wrong. American manufacturing boomed during the expansion. The value of "what we build" increased every year. The problem for the President -- and it's a giant, central problem for him -- is that we did it with fewer workers every year.

    This is the overwhelming reality that the President ignores. The great story of manufacturing in America and every place with a market economy is that we continually produce more stuff with fewer workers. The trend is not new. Manufacturing employees were 39% of total U.S. workers at the end of World War II, and that was the peak. The proportion has declined steadily ever since and is now 9%. Looking past percentages, the raw number of U.S. manufacturing workers topped out in 1979. Today it's 11.8 million, about half what it was then, though the country is far larger and richer and manufactures enormously more. For perspective, in 1941, before our entry into World War II, we had more manufacturing workers than we have today.

    None of this should be surprising, because we've seen this movie before. Well over 60% of U.S. jobs were in agriculture in the 19th century, and the proportion has been declining ever since. Today it's less than 2%. Back when it was 60%, hunger was a significant worry for much of the population. Today that tiny 2% of workers produce so much food so efficiently that obesity is our gravest national health problem.

    Fewer people relentlessly produce more and better stuff, whether it's corn, cars, or any other physical product. The trend isn't going to reverse.

    The President's obsession with manufacturing jobs goes deep. "I'd like to once again see our best and brightest commit themselves to making things," he told Georgetown University students soon after taking office. And that's fine. Smarter, more sophisticated, higher-technology manufacturing is good for America. But one thing we know for sure is that the more advanced that manufacturing becomes, the fewer people it employs. At a time when the country desperately needs more jobs, manufacturing is obviously not the place to look for them. As the President meets with his Jobs and Competitiveness Council, listen carefully to what he says. A delusional policy for America's No. 1 problem is the last thing we need.

我来点评

  最新文章

最新文章:

中国煤业大迁徙

500强情报中心

财富专栏