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专栏 - 苹果2_0

股价沉浮背后“看不见的手”露出原形

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年12月19日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
12月9日之前,美国股市不足100股的交易都不会向普通投资者公布。而45%的苹果股票交易都不足100股,在此之前,只有高频交易者才能掌握这些交易的具体情况。以前,这种信息不对等一直是某一部分股民抢占投资先机的利器。

    不少苹果投资者认为这也许能解释苹果股价自2007年以来的诸多奇怪现象。iPhone的上市时间和美国证交会全国市场体系的公布时间惊人的一致,而高频电脑交易者恰好可以利用该体系大发横财。苹果股价呈现冰火两重天——要么高得吓人,要么低得绝望——但股票成交量又远低于理论预测值。无形的零散交易或许能解释这种现象。

    新的报告制度会对普通苹果投资者造成怎样的影响?

    高频交易批评人士,Nanex的亨赛德说:“以后会出现下面这些情况:首先,那样原本依靠信息不对称的投资将无以为继。这本身是件好事,也不会让投资者难办。其次,通过了解零散交易的走向,零售应用程序将能够更好的地掌握供需的全局面貌。”

    亨赛德总结说:“信息不对称向来对市场不利,因为它会导致一些市场参与者的退出。而市场参与者越具有多样性,市场的弹性就越大。”(财富中文网)

    译者:项航  

    Some Apple investors believe this might explain a lot of the strange behavior they've observed in Apple since 2007 -- when the launch of the iPhone coincided with the promulgation of the SEC's Regulation NMS, which created the national electronic market system that high-frequency traders exploit. Apple's share price has moved both ways -- to extraordinary highs and confidence-shattering lows -- at volumes much lower than theory would predict. Invisible odd lot trades could explain the discrepancy.

    How will the new reporting regime affect the average Apple investor?

    "Several things will happen," says Nanex's Hunsader, a critic of high-frequency trading. "First, games that used to rely on that asymmetric information will no longer work. That in itself is good, with no effort on the part of the investor. Second, it will allow retail applications to better detect the supply/demand picture, etc. By knowing where these odd-lot trades are executing for example."

    "Asymmetric information is always bad for the market," Hunsader concludes, "because it drives away some participants from the market. The most resilient market is one with the widest diversity of participants."  

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