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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果iPhone 5S的销量到底是5C的几倍

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年10月16日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果高端机型iPhone 5S的销量到底比低端的5C多了多少?几家市场调研公司对这个问题给出了不同的答案。有的说是2:1,有的说是3:1,另外一家公司说两者的比例达到了4:1

    图为2013年9月9日只10月14日iPhone 5S和iPhone 5C两款手机的销量对比图。其中枣红色的曲线为5S,黑色的曲线代表5C。数字来源:MixPanel

上图为苹果iPhone各型号手机的销售占比图。数字来源:CIRC

    iPhone 5S和5C上个月上市时,人们有一千个理由相信更先进的5S会比5C吸引到更多早期采用者。真实情况也的确如此,从首发日苹果(Apple)零售店前的排队情况看,iPhone 5S的购买者是5C的20倍之多。

    那么iPhone 5C的销量后来有没有起色?来自中国的一条流传颇广的报道指出,苹果已将5C订单削减一半,从每天30万部减少到了15万部。

    那么,苹果高端机型iPhone 5S的销量到底比低端的5C强了多少?本周一发布的两篇报道给出了大相径庭的数字。

    • 根据消费者情报研究机构Consumer Intelligence Research Parters(CIRP)的报道,美国市场5S和5C的销售比大约为2比1。

    • 根据Mixpanel取自其监测应用的全球数据(不仅仅是美国),这个比例更靠近3比1。

    CIPR联合创始人乔什•洛维茨向科技博客AllThingsD表示:“手机刚上市时,许多粉丝会一窝蜂地升级至旗舰机,但随着时间推移,低价手机会开始抢占旗舰机的份额。所以我们预计接下来几个月,5C在美国市场iPhone销量中的比例会有所上升,不过5C在设计上的变化可能会影响到这一趋势。iPhone 5C的潜在客户同去年购买4S的人群不大一样,和今年新上市的5S的购买人群也不同。”

    最新消息:现在情况更加复杂了,Localytics提供了第三组数据,取样自10亿部设备上的2万多个应用程序。从中可看出,美国市场iPhone 5S和5C的销售比约为2比1,而海外市场的比例约为4比1。具体数字如下(截至本周一):

    全球:

    72% (5s) vs. 28% (5c)

    美国:

    68% (5s) vs.32% (5c)

    美国以外:

    79% (5s) vs.21% (5c)(财富中文网)

    译者:项航  

    When the iPhone 5S and 5C went on sale last month, there was every reason to suspect that the more advanced 5S would draw more early adopters to the Apple (AAPL) stores than the 5C. And indeed, by one launch-day line count, the iPhone 5S buyers outnumbered 5C buyers that first day by 20 to 1.

    Have iPhone 5C sales picked up since then? A widely circulated report out of China last week suggested that Apple had cut 5C production in half, from 300,000 units per day to 150,000.

    Now we have dueling reports on how much better the iPhone 5S is doing than the 5C.

    • According to Consumer Intelligence Research Parters, the 5S is outselling the 5C by roughly 2 to 1 in the U.S.

    • According to Mixpanel, which counts actions within apps from around the world, not just the U.S., the ratio is more like 3 to 1.

    "Over time, the lower-priced phones have tended to gain share versus the flagship phone, after the initial rush of dedicated upgraders to the newest device," CIRP co-founder Josh Lowitz told AllThingsD. "So we expect that the 5c will account for a higher percent of total U.S. iPhone sales in the coming months, but the design changes may alter that dynamic. The iPhone 5c may appeal to different buyers than the legacy 4S did last year, or the new 5s will this year."

    UPDATE: The plot thickens. Localytics, which says it samples more than 20,000 apps on a billion devices, offers a third set of statistics. They show the iPhone 5S outselling the iPhone 5C by three to one in U.S. and five to one in the rest of the world. The specific ratios (as of Monday):

    The World:

    72% (5s) to 28% (5c)

    US Only:

    68% (5s) to 32% (5c)

    Ex US:

    79% (5s) to 21% (5c)  

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