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专栏 - 苹果2_0

戴尔竞价内幕

Dan Primack 2013年04月02日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
上周末,戴尔公司发布了股东签署的委托书,详细披露了公司创始人及银湖资本联合收购要约的出炉过程。

    上周五,戴尔公司(Dell)发布了股东签署的委托书。委托书详细阐述了首席执行官迈克尔•戴尔和私募基金公司银湖资本(Silver Lake Partners)联手开出的总价高达224亿美元的收购要约的出炉过程。它还包括了该公司近期接受“询价”的详情,这轮询价后,戴尔获得了黑石集团(Blackstone Group)和卡尔•伊坎不具约束力的投资意向。

    这份文件足有274页之多。如果你是个并购迷(或者说的确切点,是个没啥朋友的并购迷),那它会是你周末晚上的绝佳读物。而对其他人来说,看看我们为大家摘取的一些精华就够了:

    发端:最早接触迈克尔•戴尔,表示有意收购的集团是东南资产管理公司(Southeastern Asset Management),但它最大的外部股东表示反对这一提案。这是去年6月的事了。7月,银湖资本的一位代表在一个行业会议上找到迈克尔•戴尔,建议两家公司坐下来商谈。委托书并未说明这是在哪次行业会议上,但我敢打包票,那就是阿斯彭举办的“《财富》头脑风暴技术大会”(the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference)(当时迈克尔•戴尔和银湖资本的埃贡•德班都做了发言)。此后不久,迈克尔•戴尔就去请教另一家私募基金了(据信是KKR集团)。到了8月14号,他又将这一意向正式通报了戴尔重量级的独立董事阿历克斯•曼德尔。三天后,董事会全体接到了通知,同时开始搭建并购的基础架构——包括筹建一个特别委员会。

    财务管理不善:成立这个特别委员会的主要动力似乎不是来自迈克尔•戴尔购买戴尔公司的意向,而更多是因为戴尔的管理层一再无法准确预测公司的业绩。比如,8月21日公司报出的季度营收要比公司管理层的内部预测要少了约3亿美元。总的来说,戴尔的营收已经连续七个月显著低于管理层的预期,而且除了一个月之外,还普遍低于分析师的预测。情况糟得无以复加,结果特别委员会只好一度请来了波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)——该集团已经为戴尔的替代性战略提供咨询了——对公司的财务前景开展独立分析。

    说实在的,首席财务官布莱恩•格莱登还能保住自己这个饭碗也真算奇迹了。再者,假如黑石集团真打算发起恶意收购,这个财务信息可能会成为它最有效的防御手段(比如,现任管理层——包括迈克尔•戴尔本人——不适合掌管戴尔公司业务)。当然,前提是黑石愿意为这个出价甘冒名声被毁的风险,而且能拿得出这么多钱来代替迈克尔•戴尔重新投入银湖资本交易的股份(更别提微软公司(Microsoft)那20亿美元的借款了)。噢,它还有另一个准备走马上任的首席执行官呢。我越想越觉得,黑石想正式出价的可能性微乎其微。

    这部分也肯定是戴尔最难接受的,因为这可能会让它本已焦虑不安的客户和员工变得更加紧张。另一方面,惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)可能也会对自己这位同在奥斯汀的对手的大笔开销看笑话。

    定价:银湖最初提出的收购价是每股11.22-12.16美元,并假定迈克尔•戴尔会把自己的股份也投入这笔交易中。KKR集团的出价也是每股12-13美元,并假定迈克尔的股份会加上东南资本持有的那些股份——加上迈克尔所做的5亿美元追加投资。值得一提的是,东南资本对KKR的出价并不知情,所以对自己被假设的角色也一无所知。

    Dell Inc. (DELL) today filed a proxy statement, detailing the process leading up its its $24.4 billion buyout proposal from CEO Michael Dell and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners. The proxy also includes details from the company's recent "go-shop" period, which resulted in nonbinding indications of interest from The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn.

    The entire package is 274 pages long, and certainly would make a good Friday night read if you're an M&A junkie (or, more specifically, a lonely M&A junkie). For the rest of you, here is a breakdown of the more interesting cuts:

    Inception: The first group to approach Michael Dell about a possible buyout was Southeastern Asset Management, the company's largest outside shareholder which has said it plans to vote against the current proposal. That was last June. The following month, a representative of Silver Lake approached Michael Dell at an industry conference to suggest the two sit down. The proxy does not say which industry conference, but I'm 99.9% certain it was Fortune Brainstorm Tech in Aspen (where Michael Dell and Silver Lake's Egon Durban both spoke). Michael Dell soon would reach out to another private equity firm (believed to be KKR) for advice, before formally advising Dell's lead independent director, Alex Mandl, on August 14. Three days later the entire board was informed and began putting M&A infrastructure in place -- including the creation of a special committee.

    Financial mismanagement: The driving force behind the special committee seemed to be less that Michael Dell wanted to buy Dell, and more that Dell management was serially incapable of accurately forecasting company performance. For example, on August 21 the company reported quarterly earnings that were around $300 million less than internal management projections. Overall, Dell's revenue came in significantly below management projections for seven straight quarters and, save for one quarter, below consensus analyst estimates. Things got so bad that, at one point, the special committee asked Boston Consulting Group -- which already was advising on strategic alternatives -- to provide independent financial analysis of the company's prospects.

    To be honest, it's kind of a wonder that CFO Brian Gladden still has his job. Moreover, if Blackstone Group were to launch a hostile bid, this financial information could be its most effective defense (i.e., current management -- including Michael Dell -- is unfit to run the business). Of course, that would assume Blackstone would be willing to risk its reputation on such an offer, and that it has the financial resources to replace the equity Michael Dell is rolling over as part of the Silver Lake deal (not to mention Microsoft's $2 billion loan). Oh, and that it has another CEO in place. Again, the chances of a formal Blackstone bid keep getting smaller the more I think about them.

    This section also must be the toughest for Dell to swallow as a company, since it may make fidgety customers and employees even more nervous. On the other hand, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) may be having a good laugh at its Austin rival's expense.

    Pricing: Silver Lake originally proposed a purchase price range of $11.22-$12.16 per share, assuming that Michael Dell would roll his shares into the deal. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR) also put in a bid for $12-$13 per share, assuming Michael's shares plus those held by Southeastern -- plus a $500 million additional investment from Michael. Important to note that Southeastern was unaware of the KKR offer, and thus was ignorant of its hypothetical role.

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