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专栏 - 苹果2_0

iPhone 5下周五登陆大陆市场

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年12月03日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
Wi-Fi版iPad mini和配备Retina显示屏的第四代iPad将于12月7日星期五在中国上市,iPhone 5在中国的发售时间定于12月14日星期五。

    

    苹果公司(Apple)刚刚宣布了新产品在中国上市的种类及发售时间,华尔街分析人士对此反应不一。

    主要观点(删去了令人不快的商标符号):

    Wi-Fi版iPad mini和配备Retina显示屏的第四代iPad将于12月7日星期五在中国上市,iPhone 5在中国的发售时间定于12月14日星期五。iPad mini与配备Retina屏的第四代iPad目前已在42个国家和地区上市,iPhone 5已经在47个国家和地区上市,其中包括美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、法国、德国、日本和英国。

    分析人士第一时间作出了反应,下面是一部分节选:

    投资银行Piper Jaffray的基尼·蒙斯特:iPhone在中国上市的时间略早于预期。“之前,我们预计这两款产品将于本季度在中国上市,iPad的上市时间与我们之前的预测基本一致,而iPhone 5的上市日期则比我们预计的时间提前了一周左右。最主要的是,我们曾预测iPhone在12月份将取得4,500万台的销量,iPhone 5在中国上市的消息让我们对之前的预测更有信心。”

    投资公司Topeka的布莱恩·怀特:期待中国在蛇年“吞”下苹果。“之前我们曾预测iPhone 5将于12月份在中国上市,但我们并未想过iPad mini和第四代iPad也会在今年登陆中国。此外,目前iPad已经在42个国家和地区开卖,而iPhone 5正式上市的时间虽然晚于预期,却已经在47个国家上市,这让我们非常吃惊。”

    国际战略投资集团(ISI)的布莱恩·马绍尔:对苹果继续向中国渗透的看法。“我们仍然认为,截至12月底,iPhone 5将在约100个国家和240家运营商全面铺开(例如,其全部运营商合作伙伴)。从技术角度来看,iPhone 5具有重要意义,因为这是首款同时支持中国三大运营商网络(中国移动、中国联通和中国电信)的iPhone手机。不过,中国移动正式发售iPhone的时间目前仍是个迷。我们的预测是在2013年下半年。”

    敬请期待更多分析。

    译者:刘进龙/汪皓

    There was mixed reaction on Wall Street to Apple's (AAPL) announcement about which new products are headed to China and when they might get there.

    The key paragraph (with irritating trademark symbols stripped out):

    The Wi-Fi versions of iPad mini and fourth generation iPad with Retina display will be available in China on Friday, December 7, and iPhone 5 will be available on Friday, December 14. iPad mini and the new fourth generation iPad with Retina display are currently available in 42 countries, and iPhone 5 is available in 47 countries, including the US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK.

    Excerpts from the early analyst's reactions:

    Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: China iPhone Launch Slightly Earlier Than Expected. "We had previously expected both products to go on sale in China during the quarter and while the iPad timing is generally in-line with our prior thinking, the iPhone 5 will be available about a week earlier than we expected. The bottom line is that the China iPhone 5 announcement gives us slightly greater confidence in our 45 million unit iPhone estimate for December."

    Topeka's Brian White: During the Year of the Snake, Expect China to Devour the Apple."Although we expected the iPhone 5 to arrive in China in December, we were not expecting the iPad mini and fourth generation iPad to be launched in the country this year. Also, we were surprised on the upside by the fact the new iPads are now in 42 countries, while the iPhone 5 rollout seems a bit slower than expected and in 47 countries."

    ISI's Brian Marshall: Quick Thoughts on AAPL's continued penetration of China. "We continue to expect the iPhone 5 will be in ~100 countries and ~240 carriers by the end of Dec (e.g., nearly 100% of their total carrier partner base). From a technology perspective, the iPhone 5 is significant as it is the first iPhone capable of running on all 3 major carrier networks in China (e.g., CHL, CHU, CHA.) Big question remains however…when will China Mobile (CHL, world's largest carrier with ~700 million wireless subs) start selling the iPhone? Our best guess is 2H13."

    More as they come in.

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