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专栏 - Geoff Colvin

百事女掌门面临职业生涯最大挑战

Geoff Colvin 2012年02月16日

杰奥夫·科尔文(Geoff Colvin)为《财富》杂志高级编辑、专栏作家。美国在管理与领导力、全球化、股东价值创造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的评论员之一。拥有纽约大学斯特恩商学院MBA学位,哈佛大学经济学荣誉学位。
现任百事公司首席执行官卢英德已经多次未能实现既定的盈利目标。投资者对此难以接受。未来数月,她的表现如何将变得至关重要。

卢英德

    执掌百事公司(Pepsi)的卢英德正面临着严峻的领导力考验。公司制定了今后数年的宏观战略方案后,形势已经有所缓解,但依然严峻。这种情况在商界是家常便饭,但没有哪个首席执行官会喜欢这种考验。对百事公司的雇员、股东以及卢英德本人来说,未来数月内她的表现如何显得至关重要。

    百事公司股票的差劲表现是卢英德最明显的问题。百事股价在去年5-9月间下跌了15%,引发了一些投资者的恐慌。更重要的是,自从卢英德五年半之前开始担任首席执行官,百事公司的股价就一直不见起色。怒火中烧的投资者指出,可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola)这几年的股价却上涨了大约四成。

    如果这种对比就此打住,倒也不是太严重的问题。但对这两家公司进行简单对比并不太公平。卢英德刚接手百事时,可口可乐的股票已持续数年下跌。因为时任可口可乐首席执行官的传奇性人物罗伯托•古兹维塔去世后,可口可乐就陷入了管理不善的境地,并持续七年之久,因此其股价有较大的上升空间。而百事公司一直以来管理良好,股价也稳中有升。卢英德接手百事之时正处于经济扩张最高点,公司股价充分反映市值,甚至有可能被高估。人们进行这样的比较,不能不说卢英德运气欠佳。

    但她现在确实面临更深层次的问题。她在任期内已经多次未能达到曾经承诺的盈利目标,投资者认为这是无法饶恕的过失。尤其是公司的旗舰产品——饮料类产品在北美这一全球最大饮料市场惨遭溃败。去年汽水行业重新洗牌,作为长期以来排在可口可乐之后的千年老二,百事甚至将碳酸饮料亚军的位置也拱手让给了健怡可乐(Diet Coke)。

    汽水行业座次的变化对投资者震动颇大,因为投资其他行业都不如投资名牌软饮料更有吸引力。这一行业对资本要求低,而利润率相当可观。如果在这方面出了状况,那么百事无疑发生了根本性的变化,同时也将丧失对投资者的吸引力。

    Indra Nooyi is in a leadership crucible. It isn't quite as hot as it was, now that the company she runs, PepsiCo, has laid out a broad strategic plan for the next couple of years. But it's still an extremely demanding test, the kind that no CEO enjoys but that most CEOs confront. For Pepsi's employees and shareholders, and for Nooyi personally, a great deal is riding on how she leads over the next several months.

    Nooyi's most obvious problem is Pepsi's stock. Last year between May and September it dropped 15%, which panicked some investors. More fundamentally, the stock has gone nowhere since Nooyi became CEO about five and a half years ago. During that same period, angry investors point out, Coca-Cola stock is up about 40%.

    If that comparison were as far as the complaining went, it wouldn't be much of a problem. The comparison is unfair. Back when Nooyi got the job, Coke (KO) stock had been falling for years, the result of seven years of poor management after the death of legendary CEO Roberto Goizueta; the stock had plenty of room to move up. But Pepsi (PEP) stock had been rising steadily through years of continued strong management; Nooyi took over near the height of the economic expansion, and the stock was fully valued, perhaps overvalued. The unflattering comparison with Coke is bad luck for Nooyi, nothing more.

    But she faces a deeper problem. During her tenure Pepsi has often failed to hit her stated profit targets, which investors consider an unforgivable sin. Specifically, the company is getting beaten up in its flagship product category, drinks, in the world's largest market, North America. The soda pop planets shifted in their orbits last year when Pepsi-Cola was displaced as America's eternal No. 2 carbonated soft drink (after Coca-Cola); the new No. 2 is Diet Coke.

    That reordering is especially distressing to investors because there is scarcely a more beautiful business in the world than producing branded soft drink concentrate. Capital requirements are low, and profit margins are stratospheric. If Pepsi was now making a mess of that franchise, then it was becoming a fundamentally different and much less attractive company.

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