我们选取了一些分析师对苹果（Apple）iPad 2发布会的反应，截至上周四中午，我们共收到了20份报告。

    奥本海默（Oppenheimer）的耶尔•瑞内：刚刚推出的iPad 2做出了一些小的改进，这种改进正是消费者期望从2代苹果设备身上看到的。尽管iPad 2并没有增加什么突破性的特点或功能，但这些改进和升级——更薄、更轻、更快、更互联——加总在一起，极大的提升了这款设备总的吸引力。这次升级与此前iPhone G2.5到3G那次升级特别像，当时那一系列小的改进使得iPhone的销量在其诞生第二年增长了2倍多。iPad的那些竞争性产品这下惨了，它们还在努力赶上1代iPad的价格和性能。在2011年，苹果将继续占据平板电脑市场75%-85%的份额。

    摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂•休伯蒂：尽管今天没有什么大的惊喜，但在亲身试用iPad 2样机之后，我们认为其性能有了极大改进，而且厚度和重量都大幅减小，从而提升了整个用户体验……我在过去一年一直在使用1代iPad，相比之下，iPad 2样机的网页下载速度和整体运行速度都快得多。在性能提升之外，iPad 2的厚度和重量的减小也不容小觑。2代iPad外观时尚——比1代iPad薄了33%，轻了15%（与其多款10英寸的竞争产品相比也是如此），这对整个用户体验有着重要影响。

    RBC的麦克•阿布拉姆斯基：在iPad 2发布会上，休病假的史蒂夫•乔布斯意外现身，令大家又惊又喜（尽管他并没有说明自己会不会重返苹果），相比之下，会上宣布的其他事项以及iPad 2的新增功能基本都在人们的意料之内……iPad 2提升了竞争的标准，持续对竞争者造成压力，并继续瞄准寻求绝佳用户体验、以媒体功能为中心的平板电脑消费者。iPad 2没有改变即将推出的Android平板电脑或PlayBook的竞争格局，因为后者针对的是另外的子市场（比如Android/谷歌粉丝、以生产力为中心的消费者以及企业级市场）。

    Needham的查理•沃尔夫：在iPad问世一年之后，各厂商争相推出媒体平板电脑，然而iPad 2一出，这些产品马上将被淘汰。那些竞争性产品可以模仿iPad的硬件特点，但现在没有、将来也不会有谁能够媲美iPad的软件。而且它们在价格方面也无法与iPad竞争。

    Susquehanna的杰夫•费达卡洛：我们最近发布的供应链检查显示，由于一些季节性因素，在2011年第1季度，iPad的产量将为690万到710万部，其中只有近200万部为1代iPad。这与Digitimes的一篇文章不谋而合，该文章称苹果在2011年1季度将生产600万到650万部iPad（包括iPad 2在内），而在2011年全年将生产4000万部iPad。我们预测在2011年第2季度，iPad 1的库存将降低，而iPad的产量将大幅增长至1000万至1200万部。我们预计在3月份和6月份那两个季度，iPad的发货量将分别为525万部和850万部。

    巴克莱（Barclay）的本•雷特兹：我们认为今天的iPad 2发布会非常成功，而且苹果3月11日就将开始发售iPad 2，这对2011年第1季度的iPad销量而言，会是一个意外的利好。我们认为史蒂夫•乔布斯的现身也是一个利好，不过，长期来看，我们认为更关键的是苹果强劲的基本面以及iPad供应链仅今年一年就将生产4000多万部iPad这一点。iPad 2令人惊艳，其竞争产品将望尘莫及。

    花旗银行（Citigroup）的理查德•加德纳：仅仅从硬件参数来看，苹果iPad 2就已赶上或超越其它竞争对手目前的产品。关于上代iPad，批评的焦点集中在其缺少前后摄像头和双核处理器，不过现在这些问题都解决了。iPad 2继续在续航时间上独占鳌头（超过10小时），而且还是目前市面上最薄最轻的10英寸平板电脑。除了出色的硬件，iPad 2还具有以下优点：（1）499美元的起价极具杀伤力，鉴于苹果的成本优势，这一售价将令其它竞争对手难以匹敌；（2）对开发者具有强大吸引力（iOS上有65000款专为平板电脑设计的应用程序，而其它平台的软件数量则少得可怜）；（3）苹果产品的装机量极大，有2亿多个账号关联了信用卡；（4）天衣无缝、无以伦比的用户体验，现在仍然无人能敌。

    德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯•惠特摩尔：我们估计iOS的装机量超过1.85亿（iPhone、iPad和iPod touch），目前为止，iOS开发者们从应用程序中获得的收益超过20亿美元。除此之外，iPad拥有超过65000款专门定制的应用程序（Android蜂巢的应用程序只有可怜巴巴的近100款）。我们预期苹果巨大的装机量将吸引更多的开发者，而开发者带来的新应用到时候又会为苹果拉来更多用户，从而使得苹果的领先优势继续扩大。我们还预计苹果会获得来自运营商（美国电话电报公司和威瑞森）的强力支持，加之其无可匹敌的分销网络（苹果零售店、在线渠道、百思买、国际网络等），iPad销量将强劲增长。

    高盛（Goldman Sachs）的比尔•绍普：我们认为iPad 2的上市和6月份iPhone的升级，将成为市场未来几个月的关键催化剂事件。我们的模型曾保守的假设苹果会降低批发平均售价，而现在iPad 2售价未变，因此我们需要相应的调整预期。不过，我们保持对iPad 2销量的预期，因为我们认为iPad 2将加剧苹果在平板电脑领域的竞争势头。

    摩根大通（JP Morgan）的马克•莫斯科维奇：我们认为iPad 2从里到外，整体获得了提升，苹果即使不能因此扩大在平板电脑市场的领先优势，也至少能保住现有的地位。在我们看来，iPad 2发布会最大的亮点在于，当竞争对手接踵而至，模仿第一代iPad 时，第二代iPad恰好降临，真是适当其时。

    Morgan Keegan的特拉维斯•麦考特：总体而言，iPad 2的技术参数并不让人惊艳，不过我们仍认为其它厂商很难做出和iPad 2价格及功能差不多的10英寸平板电脑。我们同样看到平板电脑的种类在不断增加，几乎每家智能手机制造商都进入了这块市场。笔记本价值链看来显然成了输家。

    美林（Merrill Lynch）的斯科特•克雷格：此次发布会最大的意外是史蒂夫•乔布斯的露面，自1月份起，他的健康问题就一直被外界所关注。我们认为这不会是导致苹果股价大幅上升的催化剂事件，但对投资者而言它可算是一颗定心丸。基于苹果的毛利率继续上升；存在收入增长机会；并且预期每股盈余以及估值会向上调整，我们认为苹果公司股票的风险回报率仍然很高。我们对其维持“买入”评级。

    蒙特利尔银行（BMO）的基思•巴赫曼：我们注意到iPad 1在上市后大概1个月里售出了100万台（仅在美国），不到2个月里售出了200万台。我们的检查显示，量产始于2月份，不过产量不算太大。因此，我们认为iPad 2在3月份这一季度的出货量将是50万到100万台。

    Gleacher的布赖恩•马歇尔：当看到史蒂夫•乔布斯在iPad 2发布会上露面，我们非常惊讶。从我们看来，比起上次在公开场合露面，他的状况明显好了很多（这显示是件好事）。重要的是，他并没有抢走“主角”iPad 2的风头，而iPad 2也没让我们失望。参加发布会之前，我们并没有升级第一代iPad 的冲动，然而当把玩过iPad 2后，我们的想法可能改变了。

    USB的梅纳德•尤姆：鉴于iPad 2的售价与功能，我们预计苹果将在竞争日益激烈的平板电脑市场继续保持领先优势。iPad 2功能得到增强，但售价仍然维持在500-830美元区间[摩托罗拉（Motorola）的Xoom售价为800美元，而相比之下苹果iPad 2的售价仅730美元]。

    JMP的亚历克斯•古纳：虽然人们肯定会批评iPad 2不支持4G，但当初第一代iPhone上市时，苹果就曾成功打消人们对其采用2.5G而非3G技术的疑虑；况且3G网络的数据传输速度已经令人侧目；而且苹果过去的表现证明，它总是在适当的时候推出适当的技术。我们认为其他厂商在2011年不可能拿出能与iPad 2一争高下的产品，尤其是在应用程序领域。所以我们将2011年iPad销量的预测从2900万部提高到3500万部，并认为这一数字还有可能进一步上升至4900万部。

    Stifel Nicolaus的道格•里德：总体而言，iPad 2发布会使我们确信，对绝大部分消费者而言，相对于与其竞争的Android设备，iPad 2无论在价格、性能还是外观上都占据上风。不过话虽如此，我们仍认为许多投资者都低估了用户对平板电脑支持Adobe Flash的需求，这一需求依然庞大，而iPad 2完全不能满足它们。

    Think Equities的拉杰什•盖伊：虽然iPad 2厚度的减少，有助于其稍稍压缩材料成本，不过我们认为制造成本的上升会将其抵消。iPad 2采用了不少新部件，例如前后摄像头、更强劲的芯片和一些未公布的部件，如扩大容量的内存等，这将会使成本增加，不过采购数量大幅增长将使得零部件供应协议价有所下降，从而使这些成本增长被消化掉。我们提醒投资者注意，苹果最近与胜华科技（Wintek）和宸鸿科技（TPK）等供应商达成协议，确保控制了全球近60%的触摸屏产能。我们认为这些新协议将会确保iPad 2的产能更好地满足消费者的需求，而且，当其他竞争对手想扩大产能时，也会面对苹果带来的压力。

    Canaccord Genuity的T•麦克•沃克勒：我们认为苹果对iPad 2的定价（WiFi版499美元、3G版629美元），将给摩托罗拉 Xoom（599美元/799美元）和黑莓（BlackBerry）Playbook（预计499美元）等竞争性产品在销售上造成压力。由于iPad 2相比其它平板电脑的价格优势，我们相信消费者将会一边倒地选择前者。

    Jeffries的皮特•米萨科：尽管许多竞争对手也发布了平板电脑，不过我们认为苹果的产品领导地位、垂直整合能力和广阔的全球化布局将会力助其在平板电脑市场占据最大的市场份额，并获取最多的商业利益。我们认为iPad 2的发布是个利好因素，不过并未超出人们的预期。

    译者：项航

    A sampling of analysts' reactions to Apple's (AAPL) iPad 2 event. By midday Thursday we'd received 20 reports.

    Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner:The just unveiled iPad 2 offers the kind of incremental improvements consumers have come to expect from a second-generation Apple device. While it doesn't include any new breakthrough features or functionalities, the sum total of its refinements and upgrades—thinner, lighter, faster, more connected—significantly enhance the device's overall appeal. The closest historical parallel would be the iPhone G2.5 to 3G transition, whose slew of relatively minor upgrades allowed sales to more than triple in the product's second year. This is a sad day for the crowd of competitors still struggling to home in on the first iPad's price and performance. We continue to see Apple grabbing 75-85% of the tablet market in 2011.

    Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty:Although there were no big surprises today, following our hands on demo we think that the iPad 2 delivers dramatic performance improvements and an important reduction in thickness/weight improving the overall user experience. ... After using the original iPad over the last year, our iPad 2 demo revealed significantly faster webpage loading speeds and overall performance. Besides the performance improvements, iPad 2's reduction in thickness and weight should not be underestimated. The device is sleek - 33% thinner and 15% lighter than the original iPad (and vs. many 10" competitors) which has an important impact on the overall user experience.

    RBC's Mike Abramsky:Steve Jobs appearance from medical leave was a welcome surprise to the event (although he did not say whether or not he would return to Apple), while other announcements and iPad 2 features were largely inline... iPad 2 raises the bar and sustains pressure on competitors, and continues to target media-centric tablet consumers seeking a premium experience. iPad 2 doesn't alter competitive landscape for pending Android tablets or PlayBook, which may appeal to different market segments (like Android/Google fans, productivity-centric or enterprise segments).

    Needham's Charlie Wolf:Pad 2 immediately obsoletes a flood of media tablets that are finally beginning to appear a year after the iPad's introduction. Competitive tablets can emulate the hardware features of the iPad. But none can or probably never will match its software. Nor can they match its price.

    Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro:Our recently published supply-chain checks suggest total iPad builds of 6.9 mln-7.1 mln for CY1Q11 due to some seasonality and is comprised of only ~2 mln iPad1 units. This corroborates with a Digitimes article suggesting a build of 6 mln-6.5 mln iPads (including iPad2) in CY1Q11 and 40 mln for CY11. We anticipate a workdown of iPad1 inventory and a significant ramp-up in iPad production in CY2Q11 to 10 mln-12 mln units. Our March- and June-quarter iPad estimates call for 5.25 mln and 8.5 mln shipments, respectively.

    Barclay's Ben Reitzes:We view today's announcement as impressive and the early ship date, March 11, as a positive surprise that should provide upside support to C1Q iPad estimates. We also view Steve Jobs' appearance as a positive, but we focus on Apple's strong fundamentals and iPad supply chain builds of over 40 million units this year alone as key to the thesis moving forward. iPad 2 is impressive and should keep competitors at bay.

    Citigroup's Richard Gardner:On purely a hardware spec basis, the iPad 2 allows Apple to catch up or exceed competitors' current features (see fig.1). The most glaring criticisms had been the lack of front and rear facing cameras and a dual core processor, both of which have been resolved. The iPad 2 continues to lead in battery performance (+10 hours), and is now the thinnest and lightest 10" tablet in the market. In addition to the hardware, the iPad will be advantaged due to 1) an aggressive entry price of $499, which will be difficult to match given Apple's cost advantage, 2) its ability to attract developers (65,000 tablet-specific apps on iOS, vs. an insignificant number on other platforms), 3) Apple's impressive installed base of more than 200M accounts linked to credit cards, and 4) a seamless and intuitive user experience, which remains unmatched.

    Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore:We estimate the iOS installed base is 185M+ units (iPhone, iPad and iPod touch) with over $2B of App revenue earned by iOS developers to date. In addition, there are over 65K Apps specifically designed for the iPad (vs. ~100 Android Honeycomb Apps). We expect Apple's lead to extend as this installed base attracts even more developers, whose new Apps will attract even more users. In addition, we expect strong broad support (AT&T and Verizon) coupled with unmatched distribution (Apple retail stores, online, Best Buy, int'l etc) to propel strong growth of this device.

    Goldman Sachs' Bill Shope:We believe the iPad 2 introduction and the June iPhone refresh will serve as critical catalysts in the coming months. Our model had conservatively assumed that the company would lower wholesale ASPs, so we are adjusting our estimates to reflect the unchanged price points. We are maintaining our unit estimates due to our view that the iPad 2 will accelerate Apple's competitive momentum in tablets.

    JP Morgan's Mark Mosckowitz:We think the overall improvements, inside and out, should sustain, if not add to, the company's market leadership in tablets. In our view, what is suitably impressive with today's iPad 2 launch is the arrival of a second-generation iPad just as the competition is rolling out or prototyping their first-generation tablets.

    Morgan Keegan's Travis McCourt:Overall, there was nothing extremely surprising in terms of specs, and still believe that other vendors will have difficulty selling 10 inch tablets at similar price points and functionality as Apple. However, we still view the tablet category as incrementally positive for nearly every smartphone vendor adding this form factor. The laptop value chain appears to be the clear loser.

    Merrill Lynch's Scott Craig:What was not expected was the appearance of Steve Jobs whose health has been the subject of speculation since January. While we don't expect this to be a catalyst for the stock, we believe investors find it reassuring. We believe risk/reward remains favorable predicated on gross margin tailwinds, revenue growth opportunities, anticipated upward revisions to EPS and valuation. Maintain Buy.

    BMO's Keith Bachman:We note that the original iPad sold 1 million units in approximately 1 month of shipment (US only) and 2 million units in less than 2 months. Our checks indicate mass production started in February, but volumes are modest. Hence, we believe iPad 2 unit shipments for the March quarter could be in the 500K to 1 million unit range.

    Gleacher's Brian Marshall:While we were surprised by Steve Jobs' presence at the iPad 2 launch event, his appearance actually improved from his last public event, in our view (obviously a good thing). Importantly, he did not draw focus away from the main event ... the iPad 2 introduction ... which did not disappoint. Heading into the event, we had no intention of upgrading our gen 1 iPads, but after testing the new device, we may have changed our minds.

    USB's Maynard Um:Given price points/features, we expect AAPL to maintain leadership in the increasingly competitive tablet mkt. Note AAPL maintained price points between $500-830 despite improved features (Motorola's Xoom $800 unit compares to AAPL's $730 iPad 2).

    JMP's Alex Gauna:Although there will no doubt be criticism around the lack of 4G, we recall that the original iPhone shrugged off similar concerns over its 2.5G introduction, that 3G data speeds already rate as impressive, and that Apple has a strong track record of pushing the right technology envelops at the right pace. We know of no other, nor expect any other, tablet offering in 2011 to match the value proposition of the iPad2, particularly in the area of Apps, and subsequently we are raising our FY11 iPad estimate from 29M to 35M units while noting the potential for further upside towards 49M...

    Stifel Nicolaus's Doug Reid:Overall, we come away from the iPad 2 event convinced that for most consumers the iPad 2 will offer the most compelling value proposition relative to competing Android devices based on price, performance, and aesthetics. That said, we believe many investors underestimate current demand for Adobe Flash support on tablets which remains massive, and entirely unmet by the iPad 2.

    Think Equities' Rajesh Ghai:While the cost of material may decrease slightly with the slimmer form factor, we expect the increased manufacturing costs to offset the savings. The addition of new components such as the front and rear camera, as well as the more powerful chip and unannounced but likely increased memory will increase the cost of components, but new supply agreements at significantly larger volumes should offset these changes. We remind investors that Apple recently secured close to 60% of the global touch panel capacity through panel makers such as Wintek and TPK. We believe these new agreements will ensure that supply is able to more readily meet demand, as well as placing increased pressure on competitors attempting to ramp to production volumes.

    Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley:We believe that Apple's pricing of the iPad2 ($499 for WiFi-only, $629 for 3G base models) will pressure sales of competing offerings including the Motorola Xoom ($599/$799) and BlackBerry Playbook (expected $499) as we believe consumers will overwhelmingly choose iPad2 versus other tablets at these price points.

    Jeffries' Peter Misek:Despite the launches of many competitive tablets, we believe Apple's product leadership, vertical integration, and vast scale will cause it to win the largest share of the tablet market and the majority of the economic benefits. We believe that the announcement was positive, but broadly inline with expectations.