
杰米·戴蒙向早已习惯于美元在全球金融体系中占据主导地位的美国人发出警示:美国的军事优势或许正是维系这一地位的支柱之一。
摩根大通首席执行官表示,如果未来美国不再拥有全球最强大的军事实力与经济实力,美元可能丧失全球储备货币地位。
上周末,戴蒙在接受美国公共广播公司(PBS)采访时称:“倘若25年后,我们不再拥有最强大的军队和经济实力,那么美元将丧失全球储备货币地位。世界将走向分裂,这对我们而言将极为危险。”
雪城大学莫伊尼汉全球事务研究所(Syracuse University’s Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs)副所长丹尼尔·麦克道威尔(Daniel McDowell)表示,乍看之下,军事力量似乎与美元毫无关联,但美国的军事与经济实力“与美元之间存在密不可分的联系”。
麦克道威尔在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“戴蒙的核心观点是,军事实力薄弱是经济疲软的信号,货币也会随之走弱。如果将经济实力视为美元主导地位的底层根基,那么军事实力就是重要补充。”
这位国际金融专家强调,经济实力是美元主导地位最核心的支撑,但他也列举了若干可能削弱美元地位的情形:即便美国经济依然强劲,一旦军事实力衰退,美元主导地位同样会受到冲击。国际关系便是其中一个重要方面:倘若盟友认定美国易受攻击、无力自保,便会开始担忧其持有的美元计价资产。
麦克道威尔表示:“强大的军事力量会提升货币的吸引力,因为它向海外投资者传递了资产安全的明确信号。军事实力之所以重要,是因为强大的国防提供的资产安全保障,与金融监管提供的保障并不相同。”
同理,若美国军事实力衰退,盟友担忧美国无法在危机时刻提供防务支援,其购买美国国债、赴美投资的意愿也会随之下降。
麦克道威尔说道:“其逻辑在于:如果美国无力继续为其他国家提供防务保护,这些国家便会认为美元的吸引力有所下降。因为在当前格局下,各国为美国政府提供融资,本质上是在为美国分担防务开支,而它们也能从中受益。”
另一种情形是,美国卷入其他大国的冲突并“遭遇惨败”,市场将对此作出反应,国际社会将认为美国实力受损,这种认知“同样会波及美元”。
麦克道威尔说道:“我认为伊朗战争并不适合作为例证,因为那并非全面战争。假设未来美国卷入与大国的全面冲突,最终未能取胜,这会损害美国的政治声誉与经济声誉,进而影响海外投资者对美元的看法。”
不过,制度建设与经济活力(经济体创新与资源调配速度)同样影响美元地位。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)经济研究高级研究员埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,相较于经济规模与军事实力,上述因素“对储备货币地位的重要性要高得多”,但他也承认,军力与经济实力的作用同样不容小觑。
普拉萨德表示:“诚然,美国经济与军事实力走弱、国内制度遭到削弱、地缘影响力下滑,都会损害美元的主导地位。不过,由于目前缺乏真正强有力的竞争对手,美元作为主要国际支付和储备货币的地位不会被取代。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
杰米·戴蒙向早已习惯于美元在全球金融体系中占据主导地位的美国人发出警示:美国的军事优势或许正是维系这一地位的支柱之一。
摩根大通首席执行官表示,如果未来美国不再拥有全球最强大的军事实力与经济实力,美元可能丧失全球储备货币地位。
上周末,戴蒙在接受美国公共广播公司(PBS)采访时称:“倘若25年后,我们不再拥有最强大的军队和经济实力,那么美元将丧失全球储备货币地位。世界将走向分裂,这对我们而言将极为危险。”
雪城大学莫伊尼汉全球事务研究所(Syracuse University’s Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs)副所长丹尼尔·麦克道威尔(Daniel McDowell)表示,乍看之下,军事力量似乎与美元毫无关联,但美国的军事与经济实力“与美元之间存在密不可分的联系”。
麦克道威尔在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“戴蒙的核心观点是,军事实力薄弱是经济疲软的信号,货币也会随之走弱。如果将经济实力视为美元主导地位的底层根基,那么军事实力就是重要补充。”
这位国际金融专家强调,经济实力是美元主导地位最核心的支撑,但他也列举了若干可能削弱美元地位的情形:即便美国经济依然强劲,一旦军事实力衰退,美元主导地位同样会受到冲击。国际关系便是其中一个重要方面:倘若盟友认定美国易受攻击、无力自保,便会开始担忧其持有的美元计价资产。
麦克道威尔表示:“强大的军事力量会提升货币的吸引力,因为它向海外投资者传递了资产安全的明确信号。军事实力之所以重要,是因为强大的国防提供的资产安全保障,与金融监管提供的保障并不相同。”
同理,若美国军事实力衰退,盟友担忧美国无法在危机时刻提供防务支援,其购买美国国债、赴美投资的意愿也会随之下降。
麦克道威尔说道:“其逻辑在于:如果美国无力继续为其他国家提供防务保护,这些国家便会认为美元的吸引力有所下降。因为在当前格局下,各国为美国政府提供融资,本质上是在为美国分担防务开支,而它们也能从中受益。”
另一种情形是,美国卷入其他大国的冲突并“遭遇惨败”,市场将对此作出反应,国际社会将认为美国实力受损,这种认知“同样会波及美元”。
麦克道威尔说道:“我认为伊朗战争并不适合作为例证,因为那并非全面战争。假设未来美国卷入与大国的全面冲突,最终未能取胜,这会损害美国的政治声誉与经济声誉,进而影响海外投资者对美元的看法。”
不过,制度建设与经济活力(经济体创新与资源调配速度)同样影响美元地位。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)经济研究高级研究员埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,相较于经济规模与军事实力,上述因素“对储备货币地位的重要性要高得多”,但他也承认,军力与经济实力的作用同样不容小觑。
普拉萨德表示:“诚然,美国经济与军事实力走弱、国内制度遭到削弱、地缘影响力下滑,都会损害美元的主导地位。不过,由于目前缺乏真正强有力的竞争对手,美元作为主要国际支付和储备货币的地位不会被取代。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Jamie Dimon has a warning for Americans accustomed to the dollar sitting atop the global financial system: U.S. military supremacy may be one of the things keeping it there.
The JPMorgan Chase CEO said the U.S. risks losing the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency if the country can no longer boast the world’s strongest military and economy in the future.
“If we’re not the strongest military in 25 years and the strongest economy, we won’t be the reserve currency either,” Dimon told PBS over the weekend. “The world will be fragmented, and it’ll be very dangerous for us.”
While it might initially seem like the armed forces have nothing to do with the greenback, American military and economic might are “tied up inextricably together with the dollar,” according to Daniel McDowell, Syracuse University’s Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs associate director.
“He’s more or less saying that a weak military is a sign of a weak economy, and you would expect that the currency would kind of follow suit,” McDowell told Fortune. “If you think of the economy as being the underlying foundation of dollar dominance, the military is the icing on the cake.”
While the international finance expert emphasized that economic strength is the strongest indicator of the dollar’s strength, he also outlined several scenarios in which dollar dominance could take a hit even with a strong U.S. economy because of a weakened military. One of them is international relations: If allies believe that the U.S. is vulnerable to attack and isn’t capable of defending itself, they would start to worry about their dollar-denominated assets there.
“A strong military makes a currency more appealing because it’s a signal to foreign investors that their assets are safe,” McDowell said. “It matters because a strong defense projects security of assets in a way that is distinct from the financial regulations in a country.”
Similarly, if the U.S had a weaker military and U.S. allies worried it wouldn’t be able to come to their defense if needed, they wouldn’t have the same incentive to buy Treasury bonds and invest in the country.
“The argument would be that if the United States can no longer defend other countries, those countries see the dollar as a bit less appealing because in the current state, loaning dollars to the United States government helps the U.S. pay for the defense that you benefit from,” McDowell said.
Another scenario is if the U.S. entangled itself in an all-out conflict with a rival like China or Russia and “loses decisively.” Markets would react and the world could view the country as diminished, an attitude that “might leak into the dollar.”
“I don’t think Iran’s a great case here because it’s not an all-out war,” McDowell said. “But in the future scenario where the United States does get engaged or would get engaged theoretically in an all-out conflict, and with a major power, and come out without a victory, I think that would have implications for the U.S.—both its political but also its economic reputation. And that would have implications for the dollar in terms of how overseas investors view that.”
But institutions and economic dynamism—how fast an economy innovates and shifts resources—also play a role in the dollar’s strength. Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, told Fortune those factors “are far more important to a reserve currency’s status than an economy’s size or military power,” but he acknowledged their role.
“Of course, a weakening of U.S. economic and military power and an erosion of its domestic institutions as well as geopolitical influence will hurt the dollar’s dominance, even though the lack of any serious rivals will prevent it from being displaced as the dominant international payment and reserve currency,” Prasad said.