
在美国已实现体育博彩合法化的州,信用违约率呈上升趋势,其中受影响最严重的是Z世代和千禧一代。
纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)发布的一份最新工作论文显示,自美国体育博彩合法化以来,全美总人口的违约率上升了0.3%。尽管这一数字看似微不足道,但纽约联储在仅针对参与体育博彩的人群进行分析后发现,违约率上升幅度达到10%。
该研究基于消费者信贷数据进行分析,并将违约定义为任何信贷付款逾期90天以上,包括汽车贷款和房贷。
研究作者写道:“我们的研究结果表明,体育博彩可能对家庭财务稳定产生显著影响。”
2018年,美国最高法院裁定推翻《职业与业余体育保护法案》(Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act),结束了此前对体育博彩的全面限制,也为40个州以某种形式实现体育博彩合法化铺平道路。此后,体育博彩,尤其是线上体育博彩的参与度呈爆发式增长。根据美国博彩协会(American Gaming Association)的数据,2025年商业博彩收入创下787亿美元的历史新高,同比增长9.2%。研究还显示,自合法化以来,美国人体育博彩累计投注金额已超过5,200亿美元;2025年单季度存款额已升至1,250美元,而五年前仅为500美元。
千禧一代和Z世代更容易因为参与体育博彩而遭受负面财务影响。2025年锡耶纳学院研究所(Siena College Research Institute)的调查显示,22%的美国人至少拥有一个在线博彩账户,而在18至49岁男性群体中,这一比例接近一半。纽约联储基于“粗略估算”的结果发现,40岁以下人群在信用违约人群中占比最高,在体育博彩合法化后升至26%。
体育博彩引发的广泛财务影响
纽约联储的这份报告进一步印证了一系列研究结论,证明体育博彩正在对个人财务状况产生负面影响。美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)2024年发布的一篇工作论文显示,在在线体育博彩合法的州,家庭年均博彩支出增加1,100美元,同时股票投资等净投资下降14%。
2025年的一项研究对加州大学消费者信贷面板数据(University of California Consumer Credit Panel)进行了分析,结果发现,在在线体育博彩已合法化的州,平均信用评分下降约2.7分,个人破产风险上升10%。
该研究的合著者、哈佛商学院数字数据设计研究所(Digital Data Design Institute)博士后研究员波特·拉尔森对《财富》杂志表示:“违约率和信用评分等一系列指标的变化趋势表明,体育博彩似乎正在对消费者造成一定程度的损害。”
拉尔森认为,体育博彩迅速普及。他指出,年轻人是在线体育博彩的主要营销对象,但相比年长群体,他们积累的财富更少,因此面临的风险可能更高。
这种财务影响甚至蔓延到体育博彩未合法化的州。纽约联储的研究发现了明显的空间溢出效应:即使在体育博彩尚未合法的州,只要与合法州接壤,违约率同样出现上升。由于人们会跨州使用合法州的在线体育博彩平台,这些邻近州的溢出性违约率增幅约为0.2个百分点(相比基准的0.3个百分点)。
合法体育博彩的未来前景
除了溢出效应外,即便是在尚未实现体育博彩合法化的州,也可能出现类似的财务风险上升趋势。Kalshi等预测市场的兴起,实际上已经催生出一个全国性的体育博彩市场。预测市场在美国是合法的,并由商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission ,CFTC)作为“指定合约市场”进行监管。
Citizens JMP本月发布的一份报告显示,在用户使用预测市场平台的前三个月,其亏损占投注金额的比例,甚至高于在DraftKings或FanDuel等在线体育博彩平台上的亏损比例。
不过,预测市场在美国仍处于早期阶段。益普索(Ipsos)本月对2,300多名成年人进行的调查显示,过去六个月中,仅有3%的美国人使用过相关平台;在18至24岁男性中,这一比例为8%。拉尔森指出,这类新兴平台对财务状况的影响,仍将取决于其未来的普及程度。
拉尔森表示:“当参与体育博彩的人数足够庞大时,其带来的财务损害就会逐渐显现。至于预测市场……如果规模仍然较小,可能也会带来一些财务损害,但或许很难被察觉。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
在美国已实现体育博彩合法化的州,信用违约率呈上升趋势,其中受影响最严重的是Z世代和千禧一代。
纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)发布的一份最新工作论文显示,自美国体育博彩合法化以来,全美总人口的违约率上升了0.3%。尽管这一数字看似微不足道,但纽约联储在仅针对参与体育博彩的人群进行分析后发现,违约率上升幅度达到10%。
该研究基于消费者信贷数据进行分析,并将违约定义为任何信贷付款逾期90天以上,包括汽车贷款和房贷。
研究作者写道:“我们的研究结果表明,体育博彩可能对家庭财务稳定产生显著影响。”
2018年,美国最高法院裁定推翻《职业与业余体育保护法案》(Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act),结束了此前对体育博彩的全面限制,也为40个州以某种形式实现体育博彩合法化铺平道路。此后,体育博彩,尤其是线上体育博彩的参与度呈爆发式增长。根据美国博彩协会(American Gaming Association)的数据,2025年商业博彩收入创下787亿美元的历史新高,同比增长9.2%。研究还显示,自合法化以来,美国人体育博彩累计投注金额已超过5,200亿美元;2025年单季度存款额已升至1,250美元,而五年前仅为500美元。
千禧一代和Z世代更容易因为参与体育博彩而遭受负面财务影响。2025年锡耶纳学院研究所(Siena College Research Institute)的调查显示,22%的美国人至少拥有一个在线博彩账户,而在18至49岁男性群体中,这一比例接近一半。纽约联储基于“粗略估算”的结果发现,40岁以下人群在信用违约人群中占比最高,在体育博彩合法化后升至26%。
体育博彩引发的广泛财务影响
纽约联储的这份报告进一步印证了一系列研究结论,证明体育博彩正在对个人财务状况产生负面影响。美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)2024年发布的一篇工作论文显示,在在线体育博彩合法的州,家庭年均博彩支出增加1,100美元,同时股票投资等净投资下降14%。
2025年的一项研究对加州大学消费者信贷面板数据(University of California Consumer Credit Panel)进行了分析,结果发现,在在线体育博彩已合法化的州,平均信用评分下降约2.7分,个人破产风险上升10%。
该研究的合著者、哈佛商学院数字数据设计研究所(Digital Data Design Institute)博士后研究员波特·拉尔森对《财富》杂志表示:“违约率和信用评分等一系列指标的变化趋势表明,体育博彩似乎正在对消费者造成一定程度的损害。”
拉尔森认为,体育博彩迅速普及。他指出,年轻人是在线体育博彩的主要营销对象,但相比年长群体,他们积累的财富更少,因此面临的风险可能更高。
这种财务影响甚至蔓延到体育博彩未合法化的州。纽约联储的研究发现了明显的空间溢出效应:即使在体育博彩尚未合法的州,只要与合法州接壤,违约率同样出现上升。由于人们会跨州使用合法州的在线体育博彩平台,这些邻近州的溢出性违约率增幅约为0.2个百分点(相比基准的0.3个百分点)。
合法体育博彩的未来前景
除了溢出效应外,即便是在尚未实现体育博彩合法化的州,也可能出现类似的财务风险上升趋势。Kalshi等预测市场的兴起,实际上已经催生出一个全国性的体育博彩市场。预测市场在美国是合法的,并由商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission ,CFTC)作为“指定合约市场”进行监管。
Citizens JMP本月发布的一份报告显示,在用户使用预测市场平台的前三个月,其亏损占投注金额的比例,甚至高于在DraftKings或FanDuel等在线体育博彩平台上的亏损比例。
不过,预测市场在美国仍处于早期阶段。益普索(Ipsos)本月对2,300多名成年人进行的调查显示,过去六个月中,仅有3%的美国人使用过相关平台;在18至24岁男性中,这一比例为8%。拉尔森指出,这类新兴平台对财务状况的影响,仍将取决于其未来的普及程度。
拉尔森表示:“当参与体育博彩的人数足够庞大时,其带来的财务损害就会逐渐显现。至于预测市场……如果规模仍然较小,可能也会带来一些财务损害,但或许很难被察觉。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Credit delinquency rates are on the rise in states that have legalized sports betting, and it’s impacting Gen Z and millennials the most.
A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found after sports betting was legalized in the U.S., delinquencies among the total population increased 0.3%. While that figure may appear small, when the Fed researchers analyzed the population of just those who participated in sports betting, delinquency rates rose by 10%.
The New York Fed used an analysis of consumer credit data and defined delinquency rates as being 90 days past due on any credit purchase, such as auto loans or mortgage payments.
“Our findings suggest that sports betting can have dramatic implications for household financial stability,” the authors wrote.
In 2018, the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act effective banning sports betting, opening the door for 40 states to legalize the practice in some form. Since then, participation in sports betting, particularly online, has exploded. Commercial gaming revenue hit a record $78.7 Billion in 2025, according to the American Gaming Association, a 9.2% year-over-year increase. Americans have wagered more than $520 billion on sports since the practice was legalized, and quarterly deposits have risen to $1,250 in 2025, compared to $500 five years ago, the Fed researchers found.
Millennials and Gen Z are particularly vulnerable to negative financial consequences as a result of sports betting. While 22% of Americans have an account with at least one online sportsbook, according to a 2025 Siena College Research Institute Survey, nearly half of men ages 18 to 49 have an account. People under 40 made up the largest share of individuals with credit delinquency, which rose to 26% after legalization, the Fed study found using “back-of-the-napkin” math.
The widespread financial consequences of sports betting
The New York Fed report adds to a growing base of literature showing the financial harms associated with sports betting. A working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in 2024 found household bests increased $1,100 per year in states with legal online sports betting, which was also associated with a 14% decrease in net investments, such as stocks.
A 2025 study analyzing University of California Consumer Credit Panel found average credit scores in states with legal online sports betting were slashed by about 2.7 points and increased the likelihood of bankruptcy by 10%.
“The various outcomes of delinquencies and credit scores [are] just kind of indicating that it seems to be leading to some harm among consumers,” Poet Larson, the study co-author and postdoctoral fellow at the Digital Data Design Institute at the Harvard Business School, told Fortune.
Larson speculates that sports betting has become so popular. Young people, to whom online sportsbooks are marketed toward and who have less accumulated weather than older generations, could be particularly at risk, he said.
These financial effects extend beyond states where sports betting is legal. The Fed study found significant spatial spillover effects, meaning delinquency rose in states where sports betting was illegal, but which bordered legal states. Spillover delinquency rose 0.2% compared to the 0.3% baseline, a result of individuals crossing borders in order to use online sports betting platforms in states where it is legal.
The future of legal sports betting
States that have not yet legalized sports betting may still see similar trends in financial insecurity for reasons beyond spillover effects. The rise in popularity of prediction markets, such as Kalshi—which are legal and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as “designated contract markets”—have effectively created a national sports betting market.
A Citizens JMP report published this month found that in users’ first three months on a prediction market platform, they lost more money proportionate to the amount wagered than on online sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel.
Still, prediction markets are relatively untapped in the U.S., with just 3% of Americans and 8% of men ages 18 to 24 reporting using a platform in the past six months, according to a Ipsos survey of more than 2,3000 adults published this month. Larson suggested the impact of these emerging platforms on financial security with depend on how popular they become.
“Because you have so many people sports gambling, you can start to see appreciable financial harms,” Larson said. “For prediction markets…if it’s small, then we might see financial harm, but it may be kind of difficult to detect.”