
多年来,微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉始终引领人工智能的发展浪潮,这得益于他与OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)的长期合作,以及微软AI首席执行官穆斯塔法·苏莱曼(Mustafa Suleyman)的开创性工作,尤其是Copilot工具的研发。但纳德拉鲜少提及2025年下半年大部分时间里持续困扰华尔街的担忧:人工智能领域是否存在泡沫。
在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛年会上,纳德拉与论坛临时联席主席、贝莱德(BlackRock)首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)展开对话。他解释道,倘若人工智能的增长完全依赖资本投入,这可能就是泡沫的信号。“如果我们讨论的焦点完全集中在科技企业上,那么这无疑是一个显著信号,表明该领域存在泡沫。”纳德拉表示。“若讨论仅聚焦于技术层面的动态,那就只是供给侧的情况。”
不过纳德拉针对生产力困境提出解决方案,呼吁企业领导者采用新知识工作模式,即通过调整工作流程,使之与人工智能的技术架构相适配。“作为企业领导者,我们应当树立这样一种理念:要借助技术手段,推动工作本身——也就是工作流程——的变革。”
转型阵痛
纳德拉指出,这场变革并非全无先例。他将当下的人工智能浪潮与上世纪80年代的计算机革命相类比:彼时,计算机技术重塑了职场格局,催生了新增长机遇与生产力提升空间,也催生了新型劳动者群体。“我们由此定义了‘知识型工作’这一全新的职业类别,人们真正开始借助计算机与软件的力量,放大自身的工作成效,”他说道,“我认为,在人工智能时代,类似的变革必将再次上演。”
纳德拉认为人工智能将彻底颠覆企业内部的信息流通模式。相较于过去层级分明、效率低下的信息传递机制,人工智能会推动企业信息流通走向扁平化,这就要求企业领导者重新调整现有的组织架构。纳德拉表示:“现有组织设有部门与各类专业岗位,信息自下而上传递。但在人工智能时代,这种模式行不通了——信息流通会实现全面扁平化。一旦这种模式成型,我们就必须重新设计组织架构。”
对部分《财富》美国500强企业而言,这种转型或许会更为艰难,因为组织架构的调整往往伴随着转型阵痛。纳德拉指出,精简型企业能够更轻松地应用人工智能技术,原因在于其组织架构更具新颖性与可塑性,而大型企业则可能需要较长时间才能使用新工作流程。
尽管人工智能已得到广泛应用,普华永道(PwC)第29期《全球CEO调研报告》显示:仅有10%至12%的企业表示,该技术为公司带来了营收增长或成本节约方面的实际效益,而56%的企业称尚未从人工智能的应用中获得任何回报。这一数据,与2025年8月一项聚焦人工智能投资回报的调查结论相呼应——彼时的调查结果更为悲观,有95%的生成式人工智能试点项目以失败告终。
在达沃斯论坛期间,普华永道全球主席康慕德(Mohamed Kande)接受《财富》杂志戴安·布雷迪(Diane Brady)采访时指出,在当前的人工智能应用周期中,众多首席执行官持谨慎态度且信心不足。“人工智能发展如此迅猛……以至于人们忘记技术应用必须回归基础。”他解释道。调查发现,那些从人工智能应用中获益的企业都在“夯实基础”。他强调,这更多关乎执行而非技术本身,未来高效的管理和卓越的领导力将至关重要。
纳德拉对芬克表示:“大型企业面临根本性挑战:除非其变革速度能跟上技术迭代的步伐,否则那些借助人工智能工具实现规模化发展的小型企业,终将后来居上。”
新入局者拥有“从零开始”的优势,能围绕人工智能能力搭建工作流程,而大型企业则需应对人工智能对整个部门和专业分工模式带来的扁平化影响。
诚然,纳德拉承认,大型企业依然具备自身的优势,尤其是在客户关系、数据资源与专业技术方面。但他强调,企业必须掌握驾驭这些资源的能力,以此推动管理模式的变革,否则这些优势会成为重大阻碍。
“关键在于,倘若企业无法借助新生产函数将这些优势转化为发展动能,那么终将陷入发展停滞的困局。”他说道。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
多年来,微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉始终引领人工智能的发展浪潮,这得益于他与OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)的长期合作,以及微软AI首席执行官穆斯塔法·苏莱曼(Mustafa Suleyman)的开创性工作,尤其是Copilot工具的研发。但纳德拉鲜少提及2025年下半年大部分时间里持续困扰华尔街的担忧:人工智能领域是否存在泡沫。
在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛年会上,纳德拉与论坛临时联席主席、贝莱德(BlackRock)首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)展开对话。他解释道,倘若人工智能的增长完全依赖资本投入,这可能就是泡沫的信号。“如果我们讨论的焦点完全集中在科技企业上,那么这无疑是一个显著信号,表明该领域存在泡沫。”纳德拉表示。“若讨论仅聚焦于技术层面的动态,那就只是供给侧的情况。”
不过纳德拉针对生产力困境提出解决方案,呼吁企业领导者采用新知识工作模式,即通过调整工作流程,使之与人工智能的技术架构相适配。“作为企业领导者,我们应当树立这样一种理念:要借助技术手段,推动工作本身——也就是工作流程——的变革。”
转型阵痛
纳德拉指出,这场变革并非全无先例。他将当下的人工智能浪潮与上世纪80年代的计算机革命相类比:彼时,计算机技术重塑了职场格局,催生了新增长机遇与生产力提升空间,也催生了新型劳动者群体。“我们由此定义了‘知识型工作’这一全新的职业类别,人们真正开始借助计算机与软件的力量,放大自身的工作成效,”他说道,“我认为,在人工智能时代,类似的变革必将再次上演。”
纳德拉认为人工智能将彻底颠覆企业内部的信息流通模式。相较于过去层级分明、效率低下的信息传递机制,人工智能会推动企业信息流通走向扁平化,这就要求企业领导者重新调整现有的组织架构。纳德拉表示:“现有组织设有部门与各类专业岗位,信息自下而上传递。但在人工智能时代,这种模式行不通了——信息流通会实现全面扁平化。一旦这种模式成型,我们就必须重新设计组织架构。”
对部分《财富》美国500强企业而言,这种转型或许会更为艰难,因为组织架构的调整往往伴随着转型阵痛。纳德拉指出,精简型企业能够更轻松地应用人工智能技术,原因在于其组织架构更具新颖性与可塑性,而大型企业则可能需要较长时间才能使用新工作流程。
尽管人工智能已得到广泛应用,普华永道(PwC)第29期《全球CEO调研报告》显示:仅有10%至12%的企业表示,该技术为公司带来了营收增长或成本节约方面的实际效益,而56%的企业称尚未从人工智能的应用中获得任何回报。这一数据,与2025年8月一项聚焦人工智能投资回报的调查结论相呼应——彼时的调查结果更为悲观,有95%的生成式人工智能试点项目以失败告终。
在达沃斯论坛期间,普华永道全球主席康慕德(Mohamed Kande)接受《财富》杂志戴安·布雷迪(Diane Brady)采访时指出,在当前的人工智能应用周期中,众多首席执行官持谨慎态度且信心不足。“人工智能发展如此迅猛……以至于人们忘记技术应用必须回归基础。”他解释道。调查发现,那些从人工智能应用中获益的企业都在“夯实基础”。他强调,这更多关乎执行而非技术本身,未来高效的管理和卓越的领导力将至关重要。
纳德拉对芬克表示:“大型企业面临根本性挑战:除非其变革速度能跟上技术迭代的步伐,否则那些借助人工智能工具实现规模化发展的小型企业,终将后来居上。”
新入局者拥有“从零开始”的优势,能围绕人工智能能力搭建工作流程,而大型企业则需应对人工智能对整个部门和专业分工模式带来的扁平化影响。
诚然,纳德拉承认,大型企业依然具备自身的优势,尤其是在客户关系、数据资源与专业技术方面。但他强调,企业必须掌握驾驭这些资源的能力,以此推动管理模式的变革,否则这些优势会成为重大阻碍。
“关键在于,倘若企业无法借助新生产函数将这些优势转化为发展动能,那么终将陷入发展停滞的困局。”他说道。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been leading the charge on artificial intelligence for years, owing to his long alliance with OpenAI’s Sam Altman and the groundbreaking work from his own AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman, particularly with the Copilot tool. But Nadella has not spoken often about the fears that rattled Wall Street for much of the back half of 2025: whether AI is a bubble.
At the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Nadella sat down for a conversation with the forum’s interim co-chair, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, explaining that if AI growth spawns solely from investment, then that could be a sign of a bubble. “A telltale sign of if it’s a bubble would be if all we are talking about are the tech firms,” Nadella said. “If all we talk about is what’s happening to the technology side then it’s just purely supply side.”
However, Nadella offers a fix to that productivity dilemma, calling on business leaders to adopt a new approach to knowledge work by shifting workflows to match the structural design of AI. “The mindset we as leaders should have is, we need to think about changing the work—the workflow—with the technology.”
Growing pains
This change is not wholly unprecedented, as Nadella pointed out, comparing the current moment to that of the 1980s, when computing revolutionized the workplace and opened up new opportunities for growth and productivity and created a new class of workers. “We invented this entire class of thing called knowledge work, where people started really using computers to amplify what we were trying to achieve using software,” he said. “I think in the context of AI, that same thing is going to happen.”
Nadella argues that AI creates a “complete inversion” of how information moves through a business, replacing slow, hierarchical processes with a view that forces leaders to rethink their organizational structures. “We have an organization, we have departments, we have these specializations, and the information trickles up,” Nadella said. “No, no, it’s actually—it flattens the entire information flow. So once you start having that, you have to redesign structurally.”
That shift may be harder for some Fortune 500 companies as structural changes could be accompanied by uncomfortable growing pains. Nadella says that leaner companies will be able to more easily adopt AI because their organizational structures are fresher and more malleable. On the other hand, large companies could take time to adopt new workflows.
Despite widespread adoption of AI, the 29th edition of PwC’s Global CEO Survey found that only 10% to 12% of companies reported seeing benefits from the technology on the revenue or cost side, while 56% reported getting nothing out of it. It follows up on an even more pessimistic finding about AI returns from August 2025: that 95% of generative AI pilots were failing.
PwC global chairman Mohamed Kande spoke to Fortune’s Diane Brady at Davos about the finding that many CEOs are cautious and lack confidence at this stage of the AI adoption cycle. “Somehow AI moves so fast … that people forgot that the adoption of technology, you have to go to the basics,” he explained, with the survey finding that the companies seeing benefits from AI are “putting the foundations in place.” It’s about execution more than it is about technology, he argued, and good management and leadership are really going to matter going forward.
“For large organizations,” Nadella told Fink, “there’s a fundamental challenge: Unless and until your rate of change keeps up with what is possible, you’re going to get schooled by someone small being able to achieve scale because of these tools.”
New entrants have the advantage of “starting fresh” and constructing workflows around AI capabilities, while larger firms will have to contend with the flattening effect AI has on entire departments and specializations.
To be sure, Nadella says that large organizations have kept an upper hand, especially when it comes to relationships, data, and know-how. However, he maintains that firms must understand how to use those resources to their advantage to change management style, which could otherwise pose a major roadblock.
“The bottom line is, if you don’t translate that with a new production function, then you really will be stuck,” he said.