
尽管2月11日公布的就业报告比预期好,但21世纪面临着更严峻也更不容忽视的事实,即劳动者从经济蛋糕中分得的份额越来越小。事实上,这一趋势已持续加速近50年。
《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)首席经济评论员格雷格·伊普指出,根据美国商务部数据,2025年三季度国内生产总值中员工工资和福利的占比降至51.4%,低于1980年的58%。同一时期,企业利润,或者说用于企业扩张或支付所有者的剩余现金占比则从6%一路上升到近12%。
美国新闻网站Axios分析相关数字后得出,工资占比下降的部分折合为1.2万美元,也就是说普通美国人每年少赚了这么多钱。美国劳动者每年因此损失的薪酬总计约2万亿美元。这意味着,如果没有损失,年收入中位数本可以提升近20%。
“这毫无疑问加剧了贫富差距,也导致收入中位数长期停滞,”乔治城大学(Georgetown University)劳动经济学家哈里·J·霍尔泽告诉《财富》。
他认为,这一转变主要因为劳动者话语权的削弱。“自动化和全球化共同作用下,资本所有者获益远多于劳动者,同时集体谈判之类能缩小差距的制度则不断衰落。”
其实不用看格雷格·伊普、Axios或《财富》的分析,就连美国政府也承认中产阶级结构已发生变化。
长期趋势
美国国会预算办公室近期发布报告,揭示了高收入群体与中产阶级之间日益扩大的收入鸿沟。1979年至2022年间,扣除转移支付和税收后,最富有的1%家庭所占经济份额从7%翻倍至14%。另一方面,处于中间三档的家庭,即年收入在63,000至121,000美元之间的家庭在转移支付和税收后收入份额下降了6个百分点。
如果聚焦超级富豪,差距更为触目惊心。1979年以来,收入最高的五分之一人群,即年收入超过30.7万美元的美国人收入增长了一倍多,而顶层0.01%人群的收入增长了七倍以上。诚然,美国整体在结构上更加富裕,但伴随而来的是,财富顶层群体攫取了大部分增长红利。
国会预算办公室的报告发现,市场收入特别是资本收益是导致差距扩大的主要推手。自动化趋势也在加剧鸿沟。麻省理工学院2022年的一项研究发现,1980年以来,自动化一直是收入不平等的主要原因,其中低学历劳动者受冲击最大。不过该研究发布于人工智能爆发之前,预计人工智能只会进一步拉大企业利润与劳动者薪资福利的差距。
人工智能发展对岗位的替代将涉及各教育层次。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪认为,未来五年内人工智能可能淘汰一半的入门级白领工作,将失业率推高至20%。大学毕业生正面临多年来最艰难的就业市场,部分原因就在于入门级工作自动化。
“如果完全交给市场,人工智能可能会极大节省劳动力,但对劳动者来说未必是好事,”霍尔泽说。
再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray and Christmas的数据显示,仅去年一年约有5.5万个裁员岗位与人工智能发展有关。其中很多裁员发生在科技行业。微软裁减了9,000个工作岗位,理由是人工智能导致战略调整。Salesforce在推进人工智能应用的过程中裁减了4,000个客服岗位。
最近微软发布了一份最容易受到人工智能影响的40种职业清单,其中指出笔译、销售代表、历史学家和作家最容易受生成式人工智能影响。
为避免人工智能自动化引发灾难性的失业浪潮,霍尔泽建议政府提供监管保障和激励措施,确保人工智能建设以人为本。“通过研究拨款等途经,政府可尝试奖励更偏向劳动增强或以人为本的人工智能技术,”霍尔泽说。
“我认为在人工智能时代,思考当前趋势如何发展以及能采取什么措施,是非常理智之举,而且至关重要。”(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
尽管2月11日公布的就业报告比预期好,但21世纪面临着更严峻也更不容忽视的事实,即劳动者从经济蛋糕中分得的份额越来越小。事实上,这一趋势已持续加速近50年。
《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)首席经济评论员格雷格·伊普指出,根据美国商务部数据,2025年三季度国内生产总值中员工工资和福利的占比降至51.4%,低于1980年的58%。同一时期,企业利润,或者说用于企业扩张或支付所有者的剩余现金占比则从6%一路上升到近12%。
美国新闻网站Axios分析相关数字后得出,工资占比下降的部分折合为1.2万美元,也就是说普通美国人每年少赚了这么多钱。美国劳动者每年因此损失的薪酬总计约2万亿美元。这意味着,如果没有损失,年收入中位数本可以提升近20%。
“这毫无疑问加剧了贫富差距,也导致收入中位数长期停滞,”乔治城大学(Georgetown University)劳动经济学家哈里·J·霍尔泽告诉《财富》。
他认为,这一转变主要因为劳动者话语权的削弱。“自动化和全球化共同作用下,资本所有者获益远多于劳动者,同时集体谈判之类能缩小差距的制度则不断衰落。”
其实不用看格雷格·伊普、Axios或《财富》的分析,就连美国政府也承认中产阶级结构已发生变化。
长期趋势
美国国会预算办公室近期发布报告,揭示了高收入群体与中产阶级之间日益扩大的收入鸿沟。1979年至2022年间,扣除转移支付和税收后,最富有的1%家庭所占经济份额从7%翻倍至14%。另一方面,处于中间三档的家庭,即年收入在63,000至121,000美元之间的家庭在转移支付和税收后收入份额下降了6个百分点。
如果聚焦超级富豪,差距更为触目惊心。1979年以来,收入最高的五分之一人群,即年收入超过30.7万美元的美国人收入增长了一倍多,而顶层0.01%人群的收入增长了七倍以上。诚然,美国整体在结构上更加富裕,但伴随而来的是,财富顶层群体攫取了大部分增长红利。
国会预算办公室的报告发现,市场收入特别是资本收益是导致差距扩大的主要推手。自动化趋势也在加剧鸿沟。麻省理工学院2022年的一项研究发现,1980年以来,自动化一直是收入不平等的主要原因,其中低学历劳动者受冲击最大。不过该研究发布于人工智能爆发之前,预计人工智能只会进一步拉大企业利润与劳动者薪资福利的差距。
人工智能发展对岗位的替代将涉及各教育层次。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪认为,未来五年内人工智能可能淘汰一半的入门级白领工作,将失业率推高至20%。大学毕业生正面临多年来最艰难的就业市场,部分原因就在于入门级工作自动化。
“如果完全交给市场,人工智能可能会极大节省劳动力,但对劳动者来说未必是好事,”霍尔泽说。
再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray and Christmas的数据显示,仅去年一年约有5.5万个裁员岗位与人工智能发展有关。其中很多裁员发生在科技行业。微软裁减了9,000个工作岗位,理由是人工智能导致战略调整。Salesforce在推进人工智能应用的过程中裁减了4,000个客服岗位。
最近微软发布了一份最容易受到人工智能影响的40种职业清单,其中指出笔译、销售代表、历史学家和作家最容易受生成式人工智能影响。
为避免人工智能自动化引发灾难性的失业浪潮,霍尔泽建议政府提供监管保障和激励措施,确保人工智能建设以人为本。“通过研究拨款等途经,政府可尝试奖励更偏向劳动增强或以人为本的人工智能技术,”霍尔泽说。
“我认为在人工智能时代,思考当前趋势如何发展以及能采取什么措施,是非常理智之举,而且至关重要。”(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
Despite a better-than-expected jobs report Wednesday, there’s a wider, inconvenient fact about life in the 21st century: labor takes home an ever smaller share of the economic pie. The pattern has been accelerating for nearly 50 years, in fact.
In the third quarter of 2025, the share of gross domestic income going to employees’ wages and benefits fell to 51.4%, down from 58% in 1980, according to U.S. Commerce Department data, as noted by The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator, Greg Ip. Over the same period, corporate profits, or the leftover cash used to grow a business or pay owners, have been on the rise, reaching nearly 12% of the share of gross domestic income in the third quarter, up from 6%.
Axios ran these numbers, and calculated the decline in wages as a share of gross domestic income adding up to $12,000; as in, that’s how much less per year the average American is bringing home as a result of this dynamic. It totals some $2 trillion in annual compensation for working Americans. That would mean a nearly 20% pay boost in the annual median income.
“There’s no question that contributed to inequality and kind of the stagnation of median earnings,” Harry J. Holzer, a labor economist at Georgetown University, told Fortune.
He attributes part of this shift to the weakening of worker political power. “[It’s a] combination of automation and globalization benefiting the owners of capital more than workers and the decline in these sort of equalizing institutions like collective bargaining.”
But you don’t have to listen to Greg Ip, Axios or Fortune: the government itself is admitting that something has changed in the composition of the middle class.
A long-term pattern
A recent report released by the Congressional Budget Office reveals the extent of the growing income divide between the country’s top earners and the middle class. Between 1979 and 2022, the top 1% of households doubled their slice of the economic pie from 7% in 1979 to 14% in 2022, even after accounting for transfers and taxes. On the other hand, the share of income among the “middle three” income quintiles—households earning between $63,000 and $121,000 per year—decreased six percentage points after transfers and taxes.
If you zoom in, the disparity among the ultrawealthy paints a starker picture. While income for the highest quintile of earners, those making more than $307,000, more than doubled since 1979, the income for the top 0.01% of earners grew more than sevenfold. Sure, the country overall grew structurally wealthier, but this came with a marked increase in the wealthiest taking the lion’s share of the benefits.
The CBO report found that market income, specifically capital gains, is the main driver of the divergence. However, automation is also widening the divide. A 2022 MIT study found that automation has been the main culprit driving income inequality since 1980, with automation replacing mostly less-educated workers. Yet that study was released before the advent of AI, which is only expected to exacerbate the divide between corporate profit and labor wages and benefits.
AI development is expected to replace workers regardless of education level. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, and spike unemployment to up to 20% within the next five years. And college grads are entering the toughest job market in years, thanks in part to entry-level job automation.
“If we leave it to the markets, AI might really be this hugely labor-saving technology that may not be very good for workers,” Holzer said.
Last year alone, about 55,000 job cuts were tied to AI development, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Many of those layoffs occurred in the tech industry. Microsoft slashed 9,000 jobs, citing changing strategy due to AI. And Salesforce cut 4,000 customer service jobs in an AI push.
Microsoft recently released a list of the 40 jobs most vulnerable to AI, with translators, sales reps, historians, and writers deemed some of the most affected occupations by generative AI.
To prevent a cataclysmic wave of unemployment from AI automation, Holzer suggests the government provide guardrails and incentives for tech companies to ensure AI buildout is human-first. “Government support through research grants and things like that could try to reward a more labor-augmenting or human-centered kind of AI,” Holzer said.
“I think it’s very sensible in an AI age to be thinking about how this might continue and what we might do about it. I think that’s essential.”