
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔证实,其正因为2025年6月就美联储大楼翻新事宜作证一事接受调查。消息一出,美股股指期货于1月11日晚间大幅下挫。
这一调查消息最先由《纽约时报》(New York Times)披露,鲍威尔随后公开承认,引发市场剧烈震荡,也重新引发了投资者的担忧情绪:特朗普多年来对美联储的施压,如今恐演变为对美联储独立性的直接冲击。
对利率敏感的科技股成为抛售重灾区,纳斯达克100指数期货领跌,跌幅约0.8%。从晚间的报价数据来看,标普500指数期货下跌约0.5%,道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌约0.4%。
投资者纷纷涌向传统避险资产寻求庇护。黄金期货上涨1.7%至每盎司4578美元左右,白银涨幅逾4%,反映出市场对于规避政治与货币不稳定风险的需求再度升温。美元兑瑞士法郎、日元等多种主要货币小幅走弱。
多年来,面对特朗普的屡次嘲讽与施压,鲍威尔始终保持缄默。而此次,他似乎终于忍无可忍,罕见发表措辞严厉的声明。
他写道:“任何人——当然也包括美联储主席——都不能凌驾于法律之上”,但这起针对他的调查,应该置于“本届政府持续威胁与施压的大背景”下审视。
“此次新威胁既非针对我去年6月的证词,也非针对美联储大楼翻修事宜……这些都不过是借口。以刑事指控相要挟,本质上是因为美联储始终基于对公众利益的最优判断制定利率政策,而非屈从于总统的个人偏好。”
经济学家警告称,若行政部门成功操控美联储,可能引发长期通胀高企的“自我实现预言”。
正如牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)近期所指出的,任何“美联储独立性受损的迹象”都可能迅速蔓延至市场,最终推高企业借贷成本——而本届政府原本希望通过低利率政策为这些企业提供保护。
早在去年7月,特朗普公开威胁要解雇鲍威尔时,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)就在一份报告中警示,此举可能引发市场剧烈动荡。
该行表示:“货币与债券市场都可能面临崩盘风险”,并指出此举将导致通胀与金融不稳定风险加剧。“大量实证与学术研究都已经明确证明,央行独立性受损会带来何种后果。”
华尔街高管也纷纷表达了类似担忧。美国银行(Bank of America)的首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼汉称,美联储独立性削弱将带来严重后果。
莫伊尼汉说:“若美联储丧失独立性,市场必将惩罚人们。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔证实,其正因为2025年6月就美联储大楼翻新事宜作证一事接受调查。消息一出,美股股指期货于1月11日晚间大幅下挫。
这一调查消息最先由《纽约时报》(New York Times)披露,鲍威尔随后公开承认,引发市场剧烈震荡,也重新引发了投资者的担忧情绪:特朗普多年来对美联储的施压,如今恐演变为对美联储独立性的直接冲击。
对利率敏感的科技股成为抛售重灾区,纳斯达克100指数期货领跌,跌幅约0.8%。从晚间的报价数据来看,标普500指数期货下跌约0.5%,道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌约0.4%。
投资者纷纷涌向传统避险资产寻求庇护。黄金期货上涨1.7%至每盎司4578美元左右,白银涨幅逾4%,反映出市场对于规避政治与货币不稳定风险的需求再度升温。美元兑瑞士法郎、日元等多种主要货币小幅走弱。
多年来,面对特朗普的屡次嘲讽与施压,鲍威尔始终保持缄默。而此次,他似乎终于忍无可忍,罕见发表措辞严厉的声明。
他写道:“任何人——当然也包括美联储主席——都不能凌驾于法律之上”,但这起针对他的调查,应该置于“本届政府持续威胁与施压的大背景”下审视。
“此次新威胁既非针对我去年6月的证词,也非针对美联储大楼翻修事宜……这些都不过是借口。以刑事指控相要挟,本质上是因为美联储始终基于对公众利益的最优判断制定利率政策,而非屈从于总统的个人偏好。”
经济学家警告称,若行政部门成功操控美联储,可能引发长期通胀高企的“自我实现预言”。
正如牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)近期所指出的,任何“美联储独立性受损的迹象”都可能迅速蔓延至市场,最终推高企业借贷成本——而本届政府原本希望通过低利率政策为这些企业提供保护。
早在去年7月,特朗普公开威胁要解雇鲍威尔时,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)就在一份报告中警示,此举可能引发市场剧烈动荡。
该行表示:“货币与债券市场都可能面临崩盘风险”,并指出此举将导致通胀与金融不稳定风险加剧。“大量实证与学术研究都已经明确证明,央行独立性受损会带来何种后果。”
华尔街高管也纷纷表达了类似担忧。美国银行(Bank of America)的首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼汉称,美联储独立性削弱将带来严重后果。
莫伊尼汉说:“若美联储丧失独立性,市场必将惩罚人们。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
U.S. equity futures fell sharply Sunday night after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that he is under investigation related to testimony he gave last June concerning the renovation of Federal Reserve buildings.
The New York Times report breaking news of the investigation and Powell’s subsequent disclosure rattled markets, reviving fears that years of President Donald Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve could now be realized into a direct assault on its independence.
Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 led the decline, falling about 0.8%, as interest-rate-sensitive technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. S&P 500 futures were down roughly 0.5%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell about 0.4%, according to late-evening pricing.
Investors sought protection in the traditional safe-haven assets. Gold futures rose 1.7% to around $4,578 an ounce, while silver jumped more than 4%, reflecting renewed demand for protection against political and monetary instability. The U.S. dollar weakened modestly against several major currencies, including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
After years of largely staying silent while Trump repeatedly mocked and threatened him, Powell appeared to have reached a breaking point, issuing a rare and pointed statement.
He wrote that while “No one—certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve—is above the law,” the attack should be seen in the “the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.”
“This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings…Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
Economists warn that if the executive branch successfully co-opts the Fed, it could create a “self-fulfilling prophecy” of higher long-term inflation.
As Oxford Economics recently noted, any “cracks in the Fed’s independence” could spread rapidly through markets and ultimately raise borrowing costs for the businesses the administration seeks to protect with low interest rates.
In a note published last July, when Trump publicly threatened to fire Powell, Deutsche Bank warned that such a move could spark severe market disruption.
“Both the currency and the bond market can collapse,” the bank wrote, citing heightened risks of inflation and financial instability. “The empirical and academic evidence on the impact of a loss of central-bank independence is fairly clear.”
Wall Street executives have echoed those concerns. Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America, said recently the erosion of Fed independence would carry serious consequences.
“The market will punish people if we don’t have an independent Fed,” Moynihan said.