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美国“K型经济”表象之下:钱都在婴儿潮一代人手中

Tristan Bove
2026-01-15

美国婴儿潮一代人的资产净值大约在85.4万亿美元左右。

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近一段时间,很多人都认为,当前的美国经济呈现出了明显的“K型经济”特点,也就是说,在通胀的影响下,手握大量资产的富裕阶层吃尽红利,而底层老百姓面临食品价格和电力价格的持续上涨,日子却过得一天不如一天。

“K型经济”通常被用来解释为什么消费还没有跌落到衰退区间。因为虽然低收入人群确实在削减支出,但高收入者却凭借股票和房地产的增值收益,不断在为经济注入新的活力,因此也呈现出了“我和文班亚马人均一米九”的乐观景象。穆迪分析公司(Moody’s Analytics)2025年的一项研究显示,美国收入前10%的群体,就贡献了整个美国经济近一半的消费支出。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔以及多位经济学家均指出,这种经济模式在长期是难以为继的。只要高收入群体改变消费习惯,美国就有可能迎来宏观的经济衰退,同时美国的贫富差距也会进一步加大。

那么,如果美国的高收入者能够继续消费呢?有分析师警告道,一旦美股行情遇冷,美国的高收入者可能就会被迫勒紧裤腰带过苦日子。但也有一些经济学家认为,美国的高收入者不会改变他们的高消费习惯。当前,为美国经济贡献最多的人,很多都集中在特定的年龄阶段,其消费习惯具有较强的可预测性。对他们而言,未来的经济前景依旧向好。

亚德尼研究公司(Yardeni Research)的总裁艾德·亚德尼上周撰文谈到了他对当前消费分化现象的看法。他认为,不应该把美国经济简单地描述为“K型经济”,按照年龄段来对消费群体进行划分才是更有现实意义的做法。

“要更好地理解消费市场的韧性,就要理解所谓的‘世代经济’的概念。”他说。

美国当下消费能力最强的群体,就是7600万名婴儿潮一代人。过去几年间,他们受益于资产价格的持续上涨。而此同时,美国的85后、95后的中青年群体在劳动力市场上相对立足未稳。青年失业率居高不下,初级岗位竞争激烈,再加上学生贷款和信用卡债的沉重压力,致使许多美国年轻人陷入了财务困境,这也是构成“K型经济”的底层劳动者消费增速放缓的主要原因。

婴儿潮一代人虽然要退休了,但却是史上最富裕的一代人,他们累计坐拥约85.4万亿美元的净资产。当年轻一代人还在为买房或者投资而伤脑筋的时候,婴儿潮一代人却牢牢掌控着大量社会资产。亚德尼表示,凭借雄厚的储蓄,即便退休,婴儿潮一代人依然能够保持较高的消费支出水平。

而Z世代和千禧一代们,可能要等到职业生涯的后期,才可以挣到同样规模的资产。在这种情况下,很多人可能还得靠着婴儿潮的父母的接济才能勉强过得起日子。

当然,从长远来看,年轻一代终将继承老一代的财富。这场“财富代际转移”(Great Wealth Transfer)的规模或将高达124万亿美元。仅2025年一年,美国的资产继承规模就接近了3000亿美元。但财富的完全转移需要漫长的过程,分析师预计,美国的Z世代和千禧一代对上一代的财富继承可能一直要到2048年才能基本结束。

当然,这种继承也有可能不是一帆风顺的。经常看网文的朋友都知道,老年富豪死了之后,总会有慈善机构、遗孀、私生子等跳出来争夺遗产继承权。并不是所有的年轻人都可以从父母那里获得足够的经济支持,在现如今的经济环境下,很多年轻人依然是买不起房的。

但是从目前看来,美国婴儿潮一代正是老当益壮的时候,他们的资产也还没有丝毫缩水的迹角。2023年的数据显示,美国有超过半数的企业股票和共同基金都由婴儿潮一代人所持有。

亚德尼上周在一段视频中说:“婴儿潮一代人根本花不完这么多钱,其中一部分财富必将向下一代流动。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

近一段时间,很多人都认为,当前的美国经济呈现出了明显的“K型经济”特点,也就是说,在通胀的影响下,手握大量资产的富裕阶层吃尽红利,而底层老百姓面临食品价格和电力价格的持续上涨,日子却过得一天不如一天。

“K型经济”通常被用来解释为什么消费还没有跌落到衰退区间。因为虽然低收入人群确实在削减支出,但高收入者却凭借股票和房地产的增值收益,不断在为经济注入新的活力,因此也呈现出了“我和文班亚马人均一米九”的乐观景象。穆迪分析公司(Moody’s Analytics)2025年的一项研究显示,美国收入前10%的群体,就贡献了整个美国经济近一半的消费支出。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔以及多位经济学家均指出,这种经济模式在长期是难以为继的。只要高收入群体改变消费习惯,美国就有可能迎来宏观的经济衰退,同时美国的贫富差距也会进一步加大。

那么,如果美国的高收入者能够继续消费呢?有分析师警告道,一旦美股行情遇冷,美国的高收入者可能就会被迫勒紧裤腰带过苦日子。但也有一些经济学家认为,美国的高收入者不会改变他们的高消费习惯。当前,为美国经济贡献最多的人,很多都集中在特定的年龄阶段,其消费习惯具有较强的可预测性。对他们而言,未来的经济前景依旧向好。

亚德尼研究公司(Yardeni Research)的总裁艾德·亚德尼上周撰文谈到了他对当前消费分化现象的看法。他认为,不应该把美国经济简单地描述为“K型经济”,按照年龄段来对消费群体进行划分才是更有现实意义的做法。

“要更好地理解消费市场的韧性,就要理解所谓的‘世代经济’的概念。”他说。

美国当下消费能力最强的群体,就是7600万名婴儿潮一代人。过去几年间,他们受益于资产价格的持续上涨。而此同时,美国的85后、95后的中青年群体在劳动力市场上相对立足未稳。青年失业率居高不下,初级岗位竞争激烈,再加上学生贷款和信用卡债的沉重压力,致使许多美国年轻人陷入了财务困境,这也是构成“K型经济”的底层劳动者消费增速放缓的主要原因。

婴儿潮一代人虽然要退休了,但却是史上最富裕的一代人,他们累计坐拥约85.4万亿美元的净资产。当年轻一代人还在为买房或者投资而伤脑筋的时候,婴儿潮一代人却牢牢掌控着大量社会资产。亚德尼表示,凭借雄厚的储蓄,即便退休,婴儿潮一代人依然能够保持较高的消费支出水平。

而Z世代和千禧一代们,可能要等到职业生涯的后期,才可以挣到同样规模的资产。在这种情况下,很多人可能还得靠着婴儿潮的父母的接济才能勉强过得起日子。

当然,从长远来看,年轻一代终将继承老一代的财富。这场“财富代际转移”(Great Wealth Transfer)的规模或将高达124万亿美元。仅2025年一年,美国的资产继承规模就接近了3000亿美元。但财富的完全转移需要漫长的过程,分析师预计,美国的Z世代和千禧一代对上一代的财富继承可能一直要到2048年才能基本结束。

当然,这种继承也有可能不是一帆风顺的。经常看网文的朋友都知道,老年富豪死了之后,总会有慈善机构、遗孀、私生子等跳出来争夺遗产继承权。并不是所有的年轻人都可以从父母那里获得足够的经济支持,在现如今的经济环境下,很多年轻人依然是买不起房的。

但是从目前看来,美国婴儿潮一代正是老当益壮的时候,他们的资产也还没有丝毫缩水的迹角。2023年的数据显示,美国有超过半数的企业股票和共同基金都由婴儿潮一代人所持有。

亚德尼上周在一段视频中说:“婴儿潮一代人根本花不完这么多钱,其中一部分财富必将向下一代流动。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

The alphabet soup of interpretations for today’s economy has lately landed on the letter “K” to describe the diverging ways inflation has impacted Americans: boom times for the asset-wealthy at the top, and a much more painful moment for those struggling to stay afloat amid rising prices for groceries and electricity.

The logic of the K-shaped economy has been used to explain why consumption has yet to dip towards recession levels. While low-income shoppers are cutting back on spending, high earners keep infusing the economy with their cash, fueled by stock and real estate gains. One estimate by Moody’s Analytics calculated last year that the top 10% of earners made up nearly half of all consumer spending.

Economists as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell have said that model will be unsustainable in the long run, risking widening wealth inequality or a broader economic downturn if the wealthy are unable to maintain their spending habits.

But what if they can? Analysts have warned that a stock market slump could force high rollers to tighten their belts too, but some economists say there is reason to believe lavish spending will persevere. Many of the economy’s highest spenders fall relatively neatly into demographic age groups with predictable consumption habits. For them, there could yet be good times ahead.

Instead of K-shaped, a more useful way to break down the current economy would be by age groups, according to Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, who in a blog post last week described how he might interpret today’s divergence in spending.

“We believe that a better way to understand consumer resilience is to focus on what we call the ‘gen-shaped’ economy,” the market veteran wrote.

The highest spenders today are the 76 million baby boomers who made out the best from appreciating asset prices over the past few years. Meanwhile, Gen Zers and millennials are relatively new to the labor force. A high youth unemployment rate, tight labor market for junior roles, and mounting student loan and credit card debt mean many younger Americans are struggling financially, Yardeni explained, and likely account for much of the spending slowdown at the bottom end of the K.

Baby boomers might be leaving their healthy paychecks behind as they retire in greater numbers, but they depart the workforce as the wealthiest generation in history, with a net worth of around $85.4 trillion, he added. While younger Americans struggle to buy their first home or break into the stock market, boomers retain their tight grip on assets. Because of their deep pockets in savings, Yardeni expects boomers to keep up their spending well into retirement.

Gen Z and millennials will have to wait until later in their career to dream of having similar net worths. In the meantime, Yardeni wrote, many are likely to continue receiving financial support from their well-off parents.

Younger Americans do eventually stand to inherit much of the wealth baby boomers have accumulated. The so-called “Great Wealth Transfer” could be worth as much as $124 trillion, with nearly $300 billion inherited last year alone. But this mass inheritance will take time to play out in its entirety, with some analysts estimating Gen Z and millennials will continue receiving these funds until 2048.

To be sure, the wealth transfer will be contested between widows and charities as well as children, and not all younger Americans are likely to receive enough financial support from their parents to compete in today’s economy with many struggling to afford a home.

But for now, there are few signs of sunsetting for baby boomers’ amassed wealth. In 2023, more than half of corporate equities and mutual fund shares were in the generation’s hands.

“Baby boomers can’t possibly spend all this, so some of this is going to flow down,” Yardeni said in a video last week discussing the gen-shaped economy.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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