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这家比特币资产管理公司股价再度逼近危险临界值

Jim Edwards
2026-01-09

对于一只旨在追踪比特币表现的股票而言,若其价值不及比特币本身,那么持有此类股票便毫无意义。

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Strategy公司执行董事长迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)。图片来源:Ronda Churchill—Bloomberg/Getty Images

迈克尔·赛勒旗下比特币资产管理公司Strategy股价1月2日早盘上涨1.22%,为公司赢得短暂喘息之机。自去年7月股价触及历史峰值以来,该股已累计下跌66%。1月2日晨,其市值与比特币持仓价值比率(mNAV)——衡量公司市值与比特币持仓价值相对关系的技术指标——显示为1.02。

若该指标跌破1,则意味着公司市值低于其持有的比特币资产价值。届时,众多投资者或将抛售该股,原因是,对于一只旨在追踪比特币表现的股票而言,若其价值不及比特币本身,那么持有此类股票便毫无意义。市值与比特币持仓价值比率的计算公式为:mNAV=(公司总市值+总负债-现金储备)÷比特币总持仓量。当该数值低于1时,那么持有Strategy股票的理由就愈发难以站得住脚。

自去年11月以来,该股的这一指标始终维持在危险区间之上。

事实上,公司当前市值已低于其持有的比特币资产价值。如今,公司市值为470亿美元,而其持有的比特币资产价值却接近600亿美元。这一现状本身已构成高危信号。一旦市值与比特币持仓价值比率跌破1,公司股价或将面临前所未有的困境。

《财富》杂志已联系该公司寻求置评。

塞勒本人一如既往地在社交媒体上唱多该公司股票(股票代码MSTR),并发布图表指出,该股“未平仓合约”(投资者未结清头寸)规模已相当于公司市值的87%。这暗示该股交易活跃度极高(不过,这些未平仓合约中,很可能包含大量针对公司的做空头寸)。他还发布了一张人工智能生成的图片,画面中,他正在驯服一头北极熊。

除了市值与比特币持仓价值比率跌破1这一危险临界值外,Strategy还面临另一风险阈值——比特币历史平均买入价。该公司多年来累积的比特币平均持仓成本约为7.4万美元/枚。目前比特币交易价为8.96万美元/枚,一旦币价跌破7.4万美元,便意味着该公司持有的比特币价值低于其买入成本。

Strategy的拥趸辩称,这恰是买入良机——若股价低于比特币持仓价值,每股价格有望上涨,向比特币价格靠拢;若比特币重拾涨势,公司股价甚至可能进一步攀升。

但对于那些并非坚定信徒的交易者而言,这无疑是一场严峻考验。试问,又有谁会愿意持有一只市值低于其底层资产价值的股票呢?(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

迈克尔·赛勒旗下比特币资产管理公司Strategy股价1月2日早盘上涨1.22%,为公司赢得短暂喘息之机。自去年7月股价触及历史峰值以来,该股已累计下跌66%。1月2日晨,其市值与比特币持仓价值比率(mNAV)——衡量公司市值与比特币持仓价值相对关系的技术指标——显示为1.02。

若该指标跌破1,则意味着公司市值低于其持有的比特币资产价值。届时,众多投资者或将抛售该股,原因是,对于一只旨在追踪比特币表现的股票而言,若其价值不及比特币本身,那么持有此类股票便毫无意义。市值与比特币持仓价值比率的计算公式为:mNAV=(公司总市值+总负债-现金储备)÷比特币总持仓量。当该数值低于1时,那么持有Strategy股票的理由就愈发难以站得住脚。

自去年11月以来,该股的这一指标始终维持在危险区间之上。

事实上,公司当前市值已低于其持有的比特币资产价值。如今,公司市值为470亿美元,而其持有的比特币资产价值却接近600亿美元。这一现状本身已构成高危信号。一旦市值与比特币持仓价值比率跌破1,公司股价或将面临前所未有的困境。

《财富》杂志已联系该公司寻求置评。

塞勒本人一如既往地在社交媒体上唱多该公司股票(股票代码MSTR),并发布图表指出,该股“未平仓合约”(投资者未结清头寸)规模已相当于公司市值的87%。这暗示该股交易活跃度极高(不过,这些未平仓合约中,很可能包含大量针对公司的做空头寸)。他还发布了一张人工智能生成的图片,画面中,他正在驯服一头北极熊。

除了市值与比特币持仓价值比率跌破1这一危险临界值外,Strategy还面临另一风险阈值——比特币历史平均买入价。该公司多年来累积的比特币平均持仓成本约为7.4万美元/枚。目前比特币交易价为8.96万美元/枚,一旦币价跌破7.4万美元,便意味着该公司持有的比特币价值低于其买入成本。

Strategy的拥趸辩称,这恰是买入良机——若股价低于比特币持仓价值,每股价格有望上涨,向比特币价格靠拢;若比特币重拾涨势,公司股价甚至可能进一步攀升。

但对于那些并非坚定信徒的交易者而言,这无疑是一场严峻考验。试问,又有谁会愿意持有一只市值低于其底层资产价值的股票呢?(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Stock in Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, was up 1.22% in early trading today, giving the company a brief period of relief. The stock has declined 66% since its high last July, and this morning its “mNAV” (market-to-net asset value)—a technical gauge of whether the company is worth more or less than the Bitcoin it holds—was at 1.02.

If that gauge falls below 1, then technically the company is worth less than the Bitcoin it owns. At that point, the stock would likely be sold off by many investors because there is no point in owning a stock whose value is based on Bitcoin if the stock is worth less than the Bitcoin. mNAV is a measure of the company’s total market cap plus its debt, minus its cash, divided by its total Bitcoin reserve. If that value is worth less than 1 then the case for owning Strategy stock becomes harder to argue.

The stock has been sitting above this danger zone since November.

Already, the market cap of the company is worth less than its Bitcoin. Its market cap was $47 billion today; the Bitcoin held by the company is worth just under $60 billion. That on its own is a perilous position. But if the company’s mNAV falls below 1 then the stock potentially enters a new world of pain.

Fortune contacted the company for comment.

Saylor, as usual, has been tweeting bullishly about MSTR (Strategy) shares, including a chart showing that “open interest” (investor positions that have not been closed out) are the equivalent of 87% of the company’s market value. The implication is that the stock is highly traded (although many of those positions may be short bets against the company). He also posted an AI-generated picture of him taming a polar bear.

Below the level of mNAV at 1 lies another dangerous threshold for Strategy: the average price at which Strategy has historically accumulated Bitcoin. Over the years, that price was about $74,000 per coin. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $89.6K. If the price were to fall below $74K it would imply that Strategy’s Bitcoin stash was worth less than what Saylor has paid for it.

Strategy fans would argue that might be a time to buy—if the stock was worth less than its Bitcoin then the price per share might rise to meet the price of Bitcoin; it might rise even more if Bitcoin resumed its march higher.

But that, again, would be a sore test for traders who are not true believers. Why hold a stock that is worth less than the underlying asset it represents?

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