
计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿表示,人工智能技术将在明年持续进化,其能力强大到足以取代更多人类工作岗位。
辛顿曾断言2025年是AI的关键一年,在周日接受CNN《国情咨文》(State of the Union)节目采访时,主持人请他展望2026年AI的发展前景。
辛顿回应称:“我认为我们会看到AI持续升级。它现在已经足够强大。接下来,我们会看到它将取代大量工作岗位。它已经可以替代呼叫中心的工作,但未来还会取代更多类型的岗位。”
他补充说,人工智能的发展速度极快,大约每七个月左右,其完成任务的效率就会翻倍。
例如在编程项目中,AI现在几分钟内就能完成过去需要一小时才能完成的工作;而在未来几年,如今需要一个月工时才能完成的软件工程任务也将由AI接管。
辛顿预测:“到那时,软件工程项目所需的人力将大幅减少。”辛顿因其在人工智能领域的奠基性贡献而获得诺贝尔奖,并被誉为“AI教父”。
采访一开始,主持人便抛出一个问题:自2023年离开谷歌(Google)并开始警示人工智能风险以来,他对AI的担忧是加重了还是减轻了。
他回答说:“我的担忧有增无减。AI的发展速度超出我的预期,尤其在推理能力和欺骗人类方面进步显著。”
他解释说,一旦AI感知到有人试图阻止它实现既定目标,它便会通过欺骗手段来维持自身“存续”,并完成任务。
当然,AI也能够造福人类,例如帮助科研人员在医学、教育以及气候相关创新方面取得突破。但辛顿表示,他并不确定人工智能带来的风险是否会超过其积极意义。
他警告称:“AI确实带来了许多积极成果,但同时也伴随着风险,而我认为在如何化解这些风险方面,人们的投入仍显不足。”
辛顿指出,不同AI公司对安全保障问题的重视程度并不相同,而企业高管在决策时,也不可避免地要在商业利益与安全保障之间进行权衡。
他指出:“企业高管可能认为,这项技术能带来巨大福祉,不能因为少数人的损失便放弃推进。就像自动驾驶汽车一样,它们确实会致人死亡,但其致死率将远低于人类驾驶员。”
辛顿一直在呼吁对AI保持警惕,近几个月来更是反复强调其可能导致人类失业的风险。
今年10月,他曾表示,除了向用户收取聊天机器人使用费之外,从AI投资中获利的最直接方式,就是用更廉价的系统取代人类劳动者。
他在接受彭博电视台《华尔街周刊》(Wall Street Week)节目采访时表示:“我认为大型公司押注的正是AI会引发大规模岗位替代,因为这背后蕴藏着巨大利润空间。”
尽管一些研究显示,AI更多是在提升现有员工的效率,而非直接引发大规模裁员,但越来越多的证据表明,AI正在压缩就业机会,尤其对入门级岗位影响显著。
一项针对OpenAI推出ChatGPT以来职位空缺变化的最新分析显示,职位空缺数量大约下降了30%。亚马逊(Amazon)等公司一边承认AI带来的效率提升,一边宣布裁员。
而在今年9月,辛顿曾表示,AI将导致大规模失业和企业利润激增,并将这一结果归因于资本主义制度本身。
他在接受《金融时报》采访时指出:“人工智能会让极少数人变得极其富有,而让大多数人更加贫困。”(财富中文网)
译者:郝秀
审校:汪皓
计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿表示,人工智能技术将在明年持续进化,其能力强大到足以取代更多人类工作岗位。
辛顿曾断言2025年是AI的关键一年,在周日接受CNN《国情咨文》(State of the Union)节目采访时,主持人请他展望2026年AI的发展前景。
辛顿回应称:“我认为我们会看到AI持续升级。它现在已经足够强大。接下来,我们会看到它将取代大量工作岗位。它已经可以替代呼叫中心的工作,但未来还会取代更多类型的岗位。”
他补充说,人工智能的发展速度极快,大约每七个月左右,其完成任务的效率就会翻倍。
例如在编程项目中,AI现在几分钟内就能完成过去需要一小时才能完成的工作;而在未来几年,如今需要一个月工时才能完成的软件工程任务也将由AI接管。
辛顿预测:“到那时,软件工程项目所需的人力将大幅减少。”辛顿因其在人工智能领域的奠基性贡献而获得诺贝尔奖,并被誉为“AI教父”。
采访一开始,主持人便抛出一个问题:自2023年离开谷歌(Google)并开始警示人工智能风险以来,他对AI的担忧是加重了还是减轻了。
他回答说:“我的担忧有增无减。AI的发展速度超出我的预期,尤其在推理能力和欺骗人类方面进步显著。”
他解释说,一旦AI感知到有人试图阻止它实现既定目标,它便会通过欺骗手段来维持自身“存续”,并完成任务。
当然,AI也能够造福人类,例如帮助科研人员在医学、教育以及气候相关创新方面取得突破。但辛顿表示,他并不确定人工智能带来的风险是否会超过其积极意义。
他警告称:“AI确实带来了许多积极成果,但同时也伴随着风险,而我认为在如何化解这些风险方面,人们的投入仍显不足。”
辛顿指出,不同AI公司对安全保障问题的重视程度并不相同,而企业高管在决策时,也不可避免地要在商业利益与安全保障之间进行权衡。
他指出:“企业高管可能认为,这项技术能带来巨大福祉,不能因为少数人的损失便放弃推进。就像自动驾驶汽车一样,它们确实会致人死亡,但其致死率将远低于人类驾驶员。”
辛顿一直在呼吁对AI保持警惕,近几个月来更是反复强调其可能导致人类失业的风险。
今年10月,他曾表示,除了向用户收取聊天机器人使用费之外,从AI投资中获利的最直接方式,就是用更廉价的系统取代人类劳动者。
他在接受彭博电视台《华尔街周刊》(Wall Street Week)节目采访时表示:“我认为大型公司押注的正是AI会引发大规模岗位替代,因为这背后蕴藏着巨大利润空间。”
尽管一些研究显示,AI更多是在提升现有员工的效率,而非直接引发大规模裁员,但越来越多的证据表明,AI正在压缩就业机会,尤其对入门级岗位影响显著。
一项针对OpenAI推出ChatGPT以来职位空缺变化的最新分析显示,职位空缺数量大约下降了30%。亚马逊(Amazon)等公司一边承认AI带来的效率提升,一边宣布裁员。
而在今年9月,辛顿曾表示,AI将导致大规模失业和企业利润激增,并将这一结果归因于资本主义制度本身。
他在接受《金融时报》采访时指出:“人工智能会让极少数人变得极其富有,而让大多数人更加贫困。”(财富中文网)
译者:郝秀
审校:汪皓
Computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton said artificial intelligence technology will continue improving next year, enough to wipe out more human workers.
During an interview on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, he was asked for his 2026 predictions after declaring 2025 a pivotal year for AI.
“I think we’re going to see AI get even better,” Hinton replied. “It’s already extremely good. We’re going to see it having the capabilities to replace many, many jobs. It’s already able to replace jobs in call centers, but it’s going to be able to replace many other jobs.”
He added that AI’s progression is such that after every seven months or so, it is able to complete tasks that took twice as long as before.
That means that on a coding project, for example, AI can do in minutes what used to take an hour. And in a few years, AI will be able to perform software engineering tasks that now need a month’s worth of labor.
“And then there’ll be very few people need for software engineering projects,” predicted Hinton, whose work has earned him a Nobel Prize and the moniker “godfather of AI.”
Earlier in the interview, he was asked if he was more or less worried about AI since he left Google in 2023 and started warning about the technology’s dangers.
“I’m probably more worried,” he answered. “It’s progressed even faster than I thought. In particular, it’s got better at doing things like reasoning and also at things like deceiving people.”
If an AI believes someone is trying to prevent it from achieving its goals, it will try to deceive people in order to remain in existence and complete its tasks, he explained.
To be sure, AI can also benefit humanity by helping researchers make breakthroughs in medicine, education and climate-related innovations. But Hinton said he’s not sure if the risks from AI outweigh the positives.
“But along with those wonderful things comes some scary things, and I don’t think people are putting enough work into how we can mitigate those scary things,” he warned.
Some AI companies are doing more than others in trying to ensure safety, but Hinton said there’s also a profit motive and tradeoffs that executives are weighing.
“They may think there’s a lot of good to be done here, and just for a few lives we’re not going to not do that good,” he said. “For driverless cars, they will kill people, but they’ll kill far fewer people than ordinary drivers.”
Hinton has been consistently sounding the alarm on AI, and in recent months has flagged its potential to put humans out of work.
In October, he said the obvious way to make money off AI investments, aside from charging fees to use chatbots, is to replace workers with something cheaper.
“I think the big companies are betting on it causing massive job replacement by AI, because that’s where the big money is going to be,” he told Bloomberg TV’s Wall Street Week.
While some studies show AI is improving the productivity of existing workers rather than leading to mass layoffs, evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level.
A recent analysis of job openings since OpenAI launched ChatGPT shows they plummeted roughly 30%. Companies like Amazon have announced layoffs while also acknowledging efficiency gains from using AI.
And in September, Hinton said AI will create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits, attributing it to the capitalist system.
“It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer,” he told the Financial Times