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退休在即的美国人害怕查看自己的账户余额

面对美国政府决策可能对全球经济造成的冲击,美国民众不知还能如何应对。

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迈克尔·蒙哥马利过去每周都会查看退休账户余额,然后会心一笑。但最近,为了躲避烦忧,不再纠结能否在未来几年内退休,于是只有一个解决办法。

“我不打算看了。”这位来自密歇根州亨廷顿伍兹的66岁教授说道。

当白宫发起贸易战导致金融市场动荡,却对经济衰退的担忧轻描淡写时,退休与临退休的美国民众正焦虑地观望着,担心自己的积蓄不足以支撑他们度过余生,或者不得不将遗愿清单上的事项无限期搁置。

蒙哥马利选择不再登录账户,日子也随之少了几分惶惑不安。大选过后,他与妻子重新调整投资组合,将更多资金转入债券避险。然而,面对美国政府决策可能对全球经济造成的冲击,他不知还能如何应对。

他说:“我就盼着别赔光养老钱。但除了把钱投在这儿,还能把养老钱搁哪儿才能避开那帮人折腾?总不至于真撬开床垫,把最后这点棺材本都抢走吧,如今能指望的,也就这点侥幸了。”

甚至在唐纳德·特朗普重新入主白宫之前,许多专家就曾警告称,美国股市估值过高,理应出现回调。但历史性的全面关税政策给市场注入了新的不确定性。

尽管近期股市有所回升,但标普500指数较2月份创下的历史高点仍下跌了10%。纳斯达克指数和小盘股的跌幅更大。就连债券和美元也波动剧烈。许多经济学家都在警告可能会出现经济衰退。

这让71岁的珍妮·奥茨·埃斯特里奇(Jeanne Oats Estridge)陷入极度“不安”,她拨通理财顾问的电话,提出了一个想法。

“我们把所有资金都兑换成现金如何?”奥茨·埃斯特里奇问道。

“我不建议这么做。”她得到了这样的回复。

奥茨·埃斯特里奇住在俄亥俄州代顿市,从软件工程岗位退休后,如今投身写作领域。她的最新力作,讲述了四位八旬老妪被从事性交易的外星人绑架的故事。她的账户已缩水超4万美元。一想到政府部分人员对市场波动的回应,包括特朗普最近对市场的评估,称现在是“买入良机”,她就怒火中烧。

“我上哪儿去弄钱来买股票?难不成要去内衣抽屉里翻?”奥茨·埃斯特里奇反问道。

4月早些时候,素有“恐慌指数”之称、用以衡量投资者悲观情绪的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)达到了五年来的最高水平。尽管此后有所回落,却依旧徘徊在反映市场恐慌情绪的区间。另一个衡量市场情绪的指标,即芝加哥期权交易所标普500左尾波动率指数(Cboe S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index),该指数追踪投资者对所谓“黑天鹅”事件(2008年房地产崩盘引发大衰退)的担忧情绪,同样自高位下行后,仍维持在高位。

特朗普敦促民众在评估关税对投资的影响时“保持冷静”。本月早些时候,当被问及自身储蓄状况时,他笑着回答说:“我还没查看过企业退休金计划401(k)账户呢。”

与此同时,财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)对部分人可能需要推迟退休的可能性不以为然,称人们“不会关注日常发生的波动情况”。

这般轻描淡写的论调,令部分年长投资者深感不满。

72岁的彼得·罗斯特(Peter Rost)去年从软件开发岗位退休,原本计划支取退休积蓄贴补社会保障金。但他不愿就此认亏,让损失板上钉钉。

“我打算取出2000美元,可与此同时账户却缩水了3万美元。”他说。

他以前也经历过严重的经济衰退,但今时不同往日。

“我以前有时间耐心等市场回暖,”住在康涅狄格州新哈特福德的罗斯特说,“但现在我退休了,需要从那个账户里取钱。”

他说,在他这个年纪,只有一个目标:“在有生之年,别让积蓄见底。”

根据美国投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute)的数据,截至2024年底,美国人退休储蓄总额约为44万亿美元。过去数十年间,随着401(k)计划成为雇主标配福利,退休储蓄结构中股票占比持续攀升。

例如,在基金巨头先锋集团(Vanguard)的近500万个账户中,普通投资者将四分之三的储蓄用于股票投资。即使是年长投资者,也仍大量持有股票:在先锋集团,55岁至64岁的投资者将64%的资产配置于股票;65岁及以上的投资者将49%的资产配置于股票。

鉴于这种风险敞口,加之近期市场动荡不安,理财顾问们接到大量咨询电话。

在田纳西州克拉克斯维尔市经营Narrow Road Financial Planning的TJ·宾科夫斯基(Tj Binkowski)说,部分客户不由自主地反复查看账户,为资产状况忧心忡忡,情绪紧绷。他指出,经济衰退对年长投资者的影响截然不同。

宾考斯基说:“一旦退休,账面损失就不再只是数字上的变化了。每月支取资金,就等于锁定了损失。”

68岁的保罗·杜斯特豪斯(Paul Duesterhaus)是伊利诺伊州昆西市的一名退休人员,为了避免在低位抛售,他今年放弃了从个人退休账户(IRA)中提款。这位曾在空气压缩机制造公司担任经理的退休人员将推迟购买新车的计划,并减少外出就餐等开支。

然而,他仍隐隐担忧,贸易战带来的冲击远未结束。

“我认为后续影响会更持久,而且会波及每一个美国人。”他说。

相较于年轻人,这种焦虑在老年群体中更为普遍。4月,美联社-芝加哥大学全国民意研究中心公共事务研究中心开展的民意调查显示,45岁及以上的美国成年人中,近半数将退休储蓄视为“主要”压力源,而年轻群体中这一比例仅约三分之一。美国老年人更易对股市表现流露出担忧情绪。

目前,许多年长投资者遵循众多专家的建议,在必要时对投资组合稍作调整,尽量避免激进操作,但知易行难。

“市场波动越大,你就会越紧张。”来自密苏里州切斯特菲尔德市的74岁老人史蒂夫·特纳(Steve Turner)说,他经营着一家小型公关公司。如今每次想要登录退休账户,都满心焦虑,心里想着:“哎呀,我真要点击登录吗?”

特纳说:“放长眼光看,困境自会迎刃而解,但你担心时间不等人。你已不再是三四十岁、甚至五六十岁的年纪。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

迈克尔·蒙哥马利过去每周都会查看退休账户余额,然后会心一笑。但最近,为了躲避烦忧,不再纠结能否在未来几年内退休,于是只有一个解决办法。

“我不打算看了。”这位来自密歇根州亨廷顿伍兹的66岁教授说道。

当白宫发起贸易战导致金融市场动荡,却对经济衰退的担忧轻描淡写时,退休与临退休的美国民众正焦虑地观望着,担心自己的积蓄不足以支撑他们度过余生,或者不得不将遗愿清单上的事项无限期搁置。

蒙哥马利选择不再登录账户,日子也随之少了几分惶惑不安。大选过后,他与妻子重新调整投资组合,将更多资金转入债券避险。然而,面对美国政府决策可能对全球经济造成的冲击,他不知还能如何应对。

他说:“我就盼着别赔光养老钱。但除了把钱投在这儿,还能把养老钱搁哪儿才能避开那帮人折腾?总不至于真撬开床垫,把最后这点棺材本都抢走吧,如今能指望的,也就这点侥幸了。”

甚至在唐纳德·特朗普重新入主白宫之前,许多专家就曾警告称,美国股市估值过高,理应出现回调。但历史性的全面关税政策给市场注入了新的不确定性。

尽管近期股市有所回升,但标普500指数较2月份创下的历史高点仍下跌了10%。纳斯达克指数和小盘股的跌幅更大。就连债券和美元也波动剧烈。许多经济学家都在警告可能会出现经济衰退。

这让71岁的珍妮·奥茨·埃斯特里奇(Jeanne Oats Estridge)陷入极度“不安”,她拨通理财顾问的电话,提出了一个想法。

“我们把所有资金都兑换成现金如何?”奥茨·埃斯特里奇问道。

“我不建议这么做。”她得到了这样的回复。

奥茨·埃斯特里奇住在俄亥俄州代顿市,从软件工程岗位退休后,如今投身写作领域。她的最新力作,讲述了四位八旬老妪被从事性交易的外星人绑架的故事。她的账户已缩水超4万美元。一想到政府部分人员对市场波动的回应,包括特朗普最近对市场的评估,称现在是“买入良机”,她就怒火中烧。

“我上哪儿去弄钱来买股票?难不成要去内衣抽屉里翻?”奥茨·埃斯特里奇反问道。

4月早些时候,素有“恐慌指数”之称、用以衡量投资者悲观情绪的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)达到了五年来的最高水平。尽管此后有所回落,却依旧徘徊在反映市场恐慌情绪的区间。另一个衡量市场情绪的指标,即芝加哥期权交易所标普500左尾波动率指数(Cboe S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index),该指数追踪投资者对所谓“黑天鹅”事件(2008年房地产崩盘引发大衰退)的担忧情绪,同样自高位下行后,仍维持在高位。

特朗普敦促民众在评估关税对投资的影响时“保持冷静”。本月早些时候,当被问及自身储蓄状况时,他笑着回答说:“我还没查看过企业退休金计划401(k)账户呢。”

与此同时,财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)对部分人可能需要推迟退休的可能性不以为然,称人们“不会关注日常发生的波动情况”。

这般轻描淡写的论调,令部分年长投资者深感不满。

72岁的彼得·罗斯特(Peter Rost)去年从软件开发岗位退休,原本计划支取退休积蓄贴补社会保障金。但他不愿就此认亏,让损失板上钉钉。

“我打算取出2000美元,可与此同时账户却缩水了3万美元。”他说。

他以前也经历过严重的经济衰退,但今时不同往日。

“我以前有时间耐心等市场回暖,”住在康涅狄格州新哈特福德的罗斯特说,“但现在我退休了,需要从那个账户里取钱。”

他说,在他这个年纪,只有一个目标:“在有生之年,别让积蓄见底。”

根据美国投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute)的数据,截至2024年底,美国人退休储蓄总额约为44万亿美元。过去数十年间,随着401(k)计划成为雇主标配福利,退休储蓄结构中股票占比持续攀升。

例如,在基金巨头先锋集团(Vanguard)的近500万个账户中,普通投资者将四分之三的储蓄用于股票投资。即使是年长投资者,也仍大量持有股票:在先锋集团,55岁至64岁的投资者将64%的资产配置于股票;65岁及以上的投资者将49%的资产配置于股票。

鉴于这种风险敞口,加之近期市场动荡不安,理财顾问们接到大量咨询电话。

在田纳西州克拉克斯维尔市经营Narrow Road Financial Planning的TJ·宾科夫斯基(Tj Binkowski)说,部分客户不由自主地反复查看账户,为资产状况忧心忡忡,情绪紧绷。他指出,经济衰退对年长投资者的影响截然不同。

宾考斯基说:“一旦退休,账面损失就不再只是数字上的变化了。每月支取资金,就等于锁定了损失。”

68岁的保罗·杜斯特豪斯(Paul Duesterhaus)是伊利诺伊州昆西市的一名退休人员,为了避免在低位抛售,他今年放弃了从个人退休账户(IRA)中提款。这位曾在空气压缩机制造公司担任经理的退休人员将推迟购买新车的计划,并减少外出就餐等开支。

然而,他仍隐隐担忧,贸易战带来的冲击远未结束。

“我认为后续影响会更持久,而且会波及每一个美国人。”他说。

相较于年轻人,这种焦虑在老年群体中更为普遍。4月,美联社-芝加哥大学全国民意研究中心公共事务研究中心开展的民意调查显示,45岁及以上的美国成年人中,近半数将退休储蓄视为“主要”压力源,而年轻群体中这一比例仅约三分之一。美国老年人更易对股市表现流露出担忧情绪。

目前,许多年长投资者遵循众多专家的建议,在必要时对投资组合稍作调整,尽量避免激进操作,但知易行难。

“市场波动越大,你就会越紧张。”来自密苏里州切斯特菲尔德市的74岁老人史蒂夫·特纳(Steve Turner)说,他经营着一家小型公关公司。如今每次想要登录退休账户,都满心焦虑,心里想着:“哎呀,我真要点击登录吗?”

特纳说:“放长眼光看,困境自会迎刃而解,但你担心时间不等人。你已不再是三四十岁、甚至五六十岁的年纪。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Michael Montgomery used to check the balance on his retirement account once a week and smile. But lately, not wanting to get upset and question if he could retire in a few years, there was only one solution.

“I’m not looking,” says the 66-year-old professor from Huntington Woods, Michigan.

As the White House simultaneously injects turmoil into financial markets with its trade war and dismisses fears of a downturn, retired and near-retired Americans are anxiously looking on, worried about outliving their savings or having to put off entries on their bucket lists.

Keeping logged off his account has made Montgomery’s days less worrisome. He and his wife adjusted their portfolio after Election Day, including moving more money into bonds. But he’s not sure what more he can do if the entire world economy can be affected by Washington’s decisions.

“I hope like hell I don’t lose all my retirement savings,” he says. “But where else could you put the money that these people could not disorder? They can’t get into your mattress but that’s about it.”

Many experts warned U.S. stocks were overpriced and due for a correction even before President Donald Trump reclaimed the Oval Office. But a historic blanket of tariffs have injected new uncertainty into the market.

Though stocks rallied this week, the S&P 500 is down 10% from an all-time high reached in February. Losses in the Nasdaq and among small-cap stocks are steeper. Even bonds and the U.S. dollar have been volatile. Many economists are warning of a possible recession.

It has 71-year-old Jeanne Oats Estridge feeling so “paranoid” she called her financial planner with an idea.

“How about we put it all in cash?” Oats Estridge asked.

“I just don’t advise it,” she heard back.

Oats Estridge, who lives in Dayton, Ohio, retired from a job in software engineering and now writes books, including her latest, on four octogenarian women kidnapped by sex-trafficking aliens. Her account is down more than $40,000 and she gets angry thinking about how some in Washington have reacted to the market volatility, including Trump’s recent market assessment that it was “a great time to buy.”

“Where am I supposed to come up with the money to buy? My underwear drawer?” Oats Estridge asks.

Earlier this month, the Cboe Volatility Index, considered a “fear gauge” of investor pessimism, reached its highest level in five years. The index, known as VIX, has since retreated but is still in territory reflecting fearful investors. Another measure of market sentiment, the Cboe S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index, which tracks investor worry about so-called “black swan” events such as the 2008 housing crash that spurred the Great Recession, likewise has backed off from highs but remains elevated.

Trump has urged people to “be cool” in assessing the impact of tariffs on their investments. Asked about his own savings earlier this month, he chuckled and replied: “I haven’t checked my 401(k).”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meantime, brushed off the possibility that some might need to delay retiring, saying people “don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening.”

That seeming nonchalance isn’t sitting well with some older investors.

Peter Rost, 72, retired from his software development job last year and planned to start tapping his retirement savings to supplement Social Security. But he doesn’t want to bake in his losses.

“I’m looking to take $2,000 and meanwhile the account drops by $30,000,” he says.

He’s been through serious downturns before, but those were different.

“I had the time to be patient and let it work its way back,” says Rost, who lives in New Hartford, Connecticut, “but now I’m retired and I need money from that account.”

At his age, he says, there’s one goal: “Make sure I don’t run out of money before I die.”

Americans’ retirement savings totaled about $44 trillion at the end of 2024, according to the Investment Company Institute. The composition of those savings has shifted increasingly toward stocks in the last couple decades as the 401(k) has become employers’ typical offering.

Among fund giant Vanguard’s nearly 5 million accounts, for example, the average investor puts three-quarters of their savings in stocks. Even older investors are still heavily steeped in equities: People 55 to 64 have 64% in stocks at Vanguard; those 65 and older have 49% in stocks.

With that exposure, financial advisers are getting an influx of calls amid the recent market uncertainty.

Tj Binkowski, who runs Narrow Road Financial Planning in Clarksville, Tennessee, says some clients find themselves obsessively checking their accounts and feel the emotional strain of worrying about their money. A downturn, he says, hits an older investor much differently.

“When you’re retired, paper losses aren’t just on paper anymore,” says Binkowski. “You’re locking them in every month that you take money out.”

Paul Duesterhaus, a 68-year-old retiree from Quincy, Illinois, is passing up an IRA withdrawal this year to avoid selling at a low. Instead, the retired manager at an air compressor manufacturing company will put off buying a new car as planned and cut back on things like eating out.

Still, he can’t help but feel bigger impacts of a trade war are ahead.

“I think there’s going to be longer lasting effects that are going to affect every American,” he says.

That angst is more common among older adults than younger people. An April poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found just under half of U.S. adults ages 45 and older said their retirement savings are a “major” source of stress for them right now, compared to about one-third of younger people. Older Americans were also more likely to say they’re stressed about the stock market.

For now, many older investors are taking the advice of many experts, to fine-tune investments if necessary but avoid dramatic moves. But it can be hard advice to swallow.

“The more things go up and down, the more nervous you get,” says Steve Turner, a 74-year-old from Chesterfield, Missouri, who runs a small public relations business. He now finds himself anxious when he goes to log on to his retirement account, wondering, “Gee, do I want to press the button?”

“You worry that things may work themselves out in the long run, but you don’t have as long,” says Turner. “You’re not 30, you’re not 40, you’re not 50, you’re not even 60.”

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