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天气衍生品成市场投资新宠

Dylan Sloan
2024-05-13

2023年对于天气衍生品来说是突破性的一年,这类合约是否能够兑现取决于像下雪或极端气温之类的天气条件。

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图片来源:FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

对于几乎所有业务来说,天气都是至关重要的。如果没有雪,滑雪度假村就得关门歇业。大雨会劝退前往餐厅和零售店的人流。热浪会迫使电力公司争相寻找电力来源,为其客户的空调提供电力。气候变化让上述很多风险更加突出,不过对华尔街而言,有天气风险,就有钱可赚。

2023年对于所谓的天气衍生品来说是突破性的一年,这类小众资产类别可以让投资者押注天气,包括下雨、日晒和气温。在经历了数年的缓慢增长之后,2023年天气衍生品交易量的涨幅超过了250%,规模达到了约250亿美元。

行业刊物《Artemis》的创始人史蒂夫·埃文斯对《财富》杂志表示:“借助这类工具,人们能够管理业务内部的波动性。天气衍生品大卖的另一个原因在于人们越发关注气候风险……人们只不过在前一段时间停止使用[这种工具]。我觉得它只是又回归了人们的视野。”

天气衍生品是相对简单的金融工具。两方在接洽后就一系列指标达成一致意见,例如具体的降雨量或某个温度持续特定的天数。如果降雨量超过或天气温度超过合约范围,那么一方就会拿到钱,反之亦然。各大交易所,主要是芝加哥商品交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange),允许交易员之间购买和销售合约。

确实,意识到天气衍生品作用的首个参与者之一是2001年破产的能源巨头安然(Enron)。安然的业务严重依赖于天气,比如,公司在天气炎热时的电力支出要高得多,因为客户整天都在开空调。安然意识到自己可以通过购买天气衍生品,对冲其中的一些损失,因为一旦温度超过某个水平,那么衍生品就能够获得回报。

埃文斯表示:“安然是首批天气交易机构之一,这些机构最终发现,可以通过一种明智的方式来对冲影响业务的温度波动性,尤其是能源业务。”

2008年之后,天气衍生品交易额出现暴跌,该市场在去年大幅增长之前基本上没有什么起色。增长的部分原因源于新参与者的推动:天气衍生合约不仅仅只是适用于能源公司和大型机构参与者。埃文斯表示,很多小型企业都通过购买保单间接参与了天气衍生品,因为这些承保公司会购买天气衍生品合约。随着市场的扩张,事实证明它对小企业也有很大的吸引力。

“我已经看到有公司购买雪天衍生品,因为一旦下大雪,它们就得清理其设施的积雪。”埃文斯说,“我曾经看到一家珠宝公司购买了这类衍生品,是一种保险,但其背后由衍生品作为支撑。这是因为,如果天气不好,或遇到暴雨,那么[客流量]就会减少。”

天气衍生品与巨灾债券有一些相似之处,这是另一款去年在华尔街大卖的天气相关资产类别。然而,尽管巨灾债券关联的是大规模严重自然灾害,例如地震和飓风,但天气衍生品的范围通常包括更常见的小规模自然事件,比如下雨或气温。

此类产品交易量增长的主要推手是寻求对冲其天气风险的公司,而不是寻求赚钱机会的对冲基金或交易机构。各大公司对于应对气候风险越发浓厚的兴趣,以及最近通过的美国证券交易委员会(SEC)强制提升气候风险披露力度的规定,都将企业推向了这个不断增长的领域。

埃文斯说:“这些工具可被用作确保公司营收和业务运营的稳定性。从这个角度来讲,它们是首席财务官和风险管理者的最爱。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

对于几乎所有业务来说,天气都是至关重要的。如果没有雪,滑雪度假村就得关门歇业。大雨会劝退前往餐厅和零售店的人流。热浪会迫使电力公司争相寻找电力来源,为其客户的空调提供电力。气候变化让上述很多风险更加突出,不过对华尔街而言,有天气风险,就有钱可赚。

2023年对于所谓的天气衍生品来说是突破性的一年,这类小众资产类别可以让投资者押注天气,包括下雨、日晒和气温。在经历了数年的缓慢增长之后,2023年天气衍生品交易量的涨幅超过了250%,规模达到了约250亿美元。

行业刊物《Artemis》的创始人史蒂夫·埃文斯对《财富》杂志表示:“借助这类工具,人们能够管理业务内部的波动性。天气衍生品大卖的另一个原因在于人们越发关注气候风险……人们只不过在前一段时间停止使用[这种工具]。我觉得它只是又回归了人们的视野。”

天气衍生品是相对简单的金融工具。两方在接洽后就一系列指标达成一致意见,例如具体的降雨量或某个温度持续特定的天数。如果降雨量超过或天气温度超过合约范围,那么一方就会拿到钱,反之亦然。各大交易所,主要是芝加哥商品交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange),允许交易员之间购买和销售合约。

确实,意识到天气衍生品作用的首个参与者之一是2001年破产的能源巨头安然(Enron)。安然的业务严重依赖于天气,比如,公司在天气炎热时的电力支出要高得多,因为客户整天都在开空调。安然意识到自己可以通过购买天气衍生品,对冲其中的一些损失,因为一旦温度超过某个水平,那么衍生品就能够获得回报。

埃文斯表示:“安然是首批天气交易机构之一,这些机构最终发现,可以通过一种明智的方式来对冲影响业务的温度波动性,尤其是能源业务。”

2008年之后,天气衍生品交易额出现暴跌,该市场在去年大幅增长之前基本上没有什么起色。增长的部分原因源于新参与者的推动:天气衍生合约不仅仅只是适用于能源公司和大型机构参与者。埃文斯表示,很多小型企业都通过购买保单间接参与了天气衍生品,因为这些承保公司会购买天气衍生品合约。随着市场的扩张,事实证明它对小企业也有很大的吸引力。

“我已经看到有公司购买雪天衍生品,因为一旦下大雪,它们就得清理其设施的积雪。”埃文斯说,“我曾经看到一家珠宝公司购买了这类衍生品,是一种保险,但其背后由衍生品作为支撑。这是因为,如果天气不好,或遇到暴雨,那么[客流量]就会减少。”

天气衍生品与巨灾债券有一些相似之处,这是另一款去年在华尔街大卖的天气相关资产类别。然而,尽管巨灾债券关联的是大规模严重自然灾害,例如地震和飓风,但天气衍生品的范围通常包括更常见的小规模自然事件,比如下雨或气温。

此类产品交易量增长的主要推手是寻求对冲其天气风险的公司,而不是寻求赚钱机会的对冲基金或交易机构。各大公司对于应对气候风险越发浓厚的兴趣,以及最近通过的美国证券交易委员会(SEC)强制提升气候风险披露力度的规定,都将企业推向了这个不断增长的领域。

埃文斯说:“这些工具可被用作确保公司营收和业务运营的稳定性。从这个角度来讲,它们是首席财务官和风险管理者的最爱。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Weather matters for almost any business. Ski resorts don’t have much to offer without snow. Heavy rain cuts down on foot traffic for restaurants and retail stores. Heat waves can send power companies scrambling to source energy for their customers’ air-conditioning units. Climate change has made many of these risks more pronounced—and on Wall Street, weather risks mean a chance at financial rewards.

2023 was a breakout year for so-called weather derivatives, a niche asset class that allows investors to bet on meteorological conditions including rain, sun, and temperature. After years of slow growth, trading volumes spiked over 250% in 2023, to an estimated $25 billion.

“This is a tool that people can use to manage volatility within their business,” Steve Evans, founder of industry publication Artemis, told Fortune. “Part of that is also the growing focus on climate risk… People just stopped using [these tools] for a while. And I think it’s just come back.”

Weather derivatives are relatively simple financial instruments. Two parties get together and agree on a set of parameters—say, a specific amount of rainfall or a number of consecutive days over a certain temperature. If it rains more or stays hotter than the parameters of the contract, one side gets paid, and vice versa. Exchanges, primarily the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, allow traders to buy and sell the contracts with each other.

Indeed, one of the first players to recognize the power of weather derivatives was Enron, the energy giant that collapsed in 2001. Enron’s business was heavily dependent on the weather—for example, it spent much more on power during heat waves because customers were running air-conditioning units all day. Enron realized that it could hedge against some of those losses by buying weather derivatives that would pay out if the temperature hit a certain level.

“Enron was one of the very first weather desks that effectively found that there was a smart way to hedge temperature variability that was affecting businesses, especially energy businesses,” Evans said.

After a post-2008 collapse in weather derivatives trading volumes, the market roughly flatlined over the past decade before a huge spike last year. Part of the increase was driven by new players: Weather derivatives contracts aren’t just for energy firms and big institutional players. Many smaller businesses are indirectly involved with weather derivatives through insurance policies underwritten by insurance companies that buy up contracts, Evans said. And as the market expands, it’s proving attractive to Main Street businesses too.

“I’ve seen companies buy derivatives against snowfall, because if there is a heavy snowfall, they’ve got to clear the snow from their facilities,” Evans said. “I’ve seen a jewelry company buy it—it was insurance, but it was backed by derivatives. And that was because if there was bad weather or lots of rainfall, then they wouldn’t get much [foot traffic.]”

Weather derivatives share some qualities with catastrophe bonds, another weather-linked asset class that exploded on Wall Street last year. But while catastrophe bonds are tied to massive, severe natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes, weather derivatives’ parameters generally include more common, small-scale events such as rainfall or temperature.

The boom in trading volume is largely driven by companies seeking to hedge their weather exposure, not hedge funds or trading desks looking for profit. Heightened interest in how companies are dealing with climate risks, as well as recently passed SEC rules mandating greater climate disclosures, are driving businesses to the growing sector.

“These are tools that can be used to smooth revenues, smooth business operations. CFOs love them, as well as risk managers, in that respect,” Evans said.

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