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华尔街女先知:通过调整抵押贷款市场,可以刺激美国经济

Jason Ma
2024-05-09

美国房地产市场蕴藏着前所未有的经济刺激潜力。

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2013年,梅雷迪斯·惠特尼顾问集团的创始人及首席执行官梅雷迪斯·惠特尼。图片来源:PATRICK T. FALLON—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

曾经预测金融危机(Great Financial Crisis)的“华尔街先知”梅雷迪斯·惠特尼表示,美国房地产市场蕴藏着前所未有的经济刺激潜力,而这无需任何联邦支出。

梅雷迪斯·惠特尼顾问集团(Meredith Whitney Advisory Group)的首席执行官梅雷迪斯·惠特尼最近警告说,“美国男性危机”对经济和房地产市场构成了威胁,同时她也强调了拟议中的抵押贷款市场改革可能带来的机遇。

她在5月3日为《金融时报》(Financial Times)撰写的一篇专栏文章中指出,抵押贷款融资巨头房地美(Freddie Mac)上月要求监管机构进入二级抵押贷款市场,即房屋净值贷款(允许房主以房屋净值为抵押进行贷款)。

这种贷款可以用于度假、婚礼、新车、投资、医疗账单、偿还债务或创业。换句话说,会有更多的资金推动经济发展。

房地美最为人所知的角色是:购买首次抵押贷款,将其集中起来,然后作为抵押贷款支持证券出售给投资者。这使得贷款机构能够将这些抵押贷款从其资产负债表中剥离,从而释放流动性,用于发放更多贷款。

惠特尼估计,让房地美来实施房屋净值贷款,最快今年夏天就可以让消费者的钱包里多出1万亿美元,到秋天就能够多出2万亿美元。她补充道,如果其他抵押贷款巨头房利美(Fannie Mae)和吉利美(Ginnie Mac)跟进,潜在的刺激规模就可能超过3万亿美元。

金融危机爆发后,银行大幅减少了房屋净值贷款参与度。据惠特尼称,未偿还的房屋净值贷款已经从2007年金融危机爆发前的7,000多亿美元降至目前的3,500亿美元。而在此期间,房价却上涨了70%以上。

她说:“房地美提案可能会改变这一切,而且时机再好不过了。大多数美国人都感受到持续通胀的刺痛,但靠固定收入生活的美国老年人受到的打击尤为严重。”

惠特尼指出,房主保险和房产税费用不断上涨,迫使美国老年人背负更多债务。这让他们很容易受到意外支出或其他财务冲击的影响。

虽然低于预期的4月就业报告显示薪资有所降温,但其他经济数据表明消费需求依然强劲,令通胀承压。这表明现在可能还不是实施数万亿美元刺激计划的最佳时机,尤其是在通胀率仍然顽固高于美联储(Federal Reserve)2%的目标的情况下。

不过,惠特尼表示,扩大房屋净值贷款规模,将“在不增加政府债务的情况下,为似乎正在放缓的经济和消费者提供巨大刺激。对于政府、华尔街和美国消费者来说,我很少看到如此双赢局面。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

曾经预测金融危机(Great Financial Crisis)的“华尔街先知”梅雷迪斯·惠特尼表示,美国房地产市场蕴藏着前所未有的经济刺激潜力,而这无需任何联邦支出。

梅雷迪斯·惠特尼顾问集团(Meredith Whitney Advisory Group)的首席执行官梅雷迪斯·惠特尼最近警告说,“美国男性危机”对经济和房地产市场构成了威胁,同时她也强调了拟议中的抵押贷款市场改革可能带来的机遇。

她在5月3日为《金融时报》(Financial Times)撰写的一篇专栏文章中指出,抵押贷款融资巨头房地美(Freddie Mac)上月要求监管机构进入二级抵押贷款市场,即房屋净值贷款(允许房主以房屋净值为抵押进行贷款)。

这种贷款可以用于度假、婚礼、新车、投资、医疗账单、偿还债务或创业。换句话说,会有更多的资金推动经济发展。

房地美最为人所知的角色是:购买首次抵押贷款,将其集中起来,然后作为抵押贷款支持证券出售给投资者。这使得贷款机构能够将这些抵押贷款从其资产负债表中剥离,从而释放流动性,用于发放更多贷款。

惠特尼估计,让房地美来实施房屋净值贷款,最快今年夏天就可以让消费者的钱包里多出1万亿美元,到秋天就能够多出2万亿美元。她补充道,如果其他抵押贷款巨头房利美(Fannie Mae)和吉利美(Ginnie Mac)跟进,潜在的刺激规模就可能超过3万亿美元。

金融危机爆发后,银行大幅减少了房屋净值贷款参与度。据惠特尼称,未偿还的房屋净值贷款已经从2007年金融危机爆发前的7,000多亿美元降至目前的3,500亿美元。而在此期间,房价却上涨了70%以上。

她说:“房地美提案可能会改变这一切,而且时机再好不过了。大多数美国人都感受到持续通胀的刺痛,但靠固定收入生活的美国老年人受到的打击尤为严重。”

惠特尼指出,房主保险和房产税费用不断上涨,迫使美国老年人背负更多债务。这让他们很容易受到意外支出或其他财务冲击的影响。

虽然低于预期的4月就业报告显示薪资有所降温,但其他经济数据表明消费需求依然强劲,令通胀承压。这表明现在可能还不是实施数万亿美元刺激计划的最佳时机,尤其是在通胀率仍然顽固高于美联储(Federal Reserve)2%的目标的情况下。

不过,惠特尼表示,扩大房屋净值贷款规模,将“在不增加政府债务的情况下,为似乎正在放缓的经济和消费者提供巨大刺激。对于政府、华尔街和美国消费者来说,我很少看到如此双赢局面。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

The U.S. housing market is harboring the potential for unprecedented economic stimulus that wouldn’t require any federal spending, according to Meredith Whitney, the one-time “Oracle of Wall Street” who predicted the Great Financial Crisis.

While she has recently warned of the dangers that the “crisis of the American male” poses to the economy and the housing market, the CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group highlighted the opportunity that a proposed reform to the mortgage market could represent.

In a column for the Financial Times on May 3, she noted that mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac asked its regulator last month to enter the secondary mortgage market, or home equity loans, which allow homeowners to borrow against the equity in their houses.

Such borrowing can be used for things like vacations, weddings, new cars, investments, medical bills, paying down debt, or starting a business. In other words, it’s more money that could power the economy.

Freddie Mac is best known for its role in buying first-time mortgages, pooling them together, and selling them to investors as mortgage-backed securities. This allows lenders to get those mortgages off their balance sheets, freeing up liquidity for more loans.

Letting Freddie Mac do this for home equity loans could start putting $1 trillion into consumers’ wallets as soon as this summer and $2 trillion by the autumn, Whitney estimated. If fellow mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac follow along, the potential stimulus could top $3 trillion, she added.

Their involvement in home equity loans would come as banks have slashed their participation following the financial crisis. Home equity loans outstanding have plunged to $350 billion today from more than $700 billion in 2007, just before the financial crisis, according to Whitney. And that’s even has home prices have shot up over 70% in that span.

“The Freddie Mac proposal could change all that, and it could not come at a better time,” she said. “Most people in the U.S. are feeling the sting of persistent inflation, but older Americans living on a fixed income have been hit particularly hard.”

She cited rising costs for homeowners insurance and property taxes, forcing older Americans to take on more debt. That’s left them vulnerable to unexpected expenses or other financial shocks.

While the lower-than-expected April jobs report showed wage growth cooled, other economic data indicate consumer demand has remained robust, keeping upward pressure on inflation. That suggests right now may not be the best time for trillions of dollars of more stimulus, especially as inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

Still, Whitney said expanding the ability to tap home equity loans would provide “big stimulus to an economy and consumer that appear to be slowing down without adding a dime to government debt. Rarely have I seen such a true win-win scenario for the government, Wall Street and the U.S. consumer.”

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