美国高抵押贷款利率高企，买房的和卖房的都受影响
当抵押贷款利率从曾经的史上最低点飙升至20年新高时，会发生什么？人们停止卖房。有人停止买房。
抵押贷款利率较8.03%的最高点有所下降，但依旧远高于刺激疫情期间房地产市场繁荣的2%和3%的水平。最新数据显示，当前平均30年期固定抵押贷款利率为7.44%。上周，在高于预期的通胀报告出炉后，抵押贷款利率升至近五个月的最高水平。因此，更多观望中的购房人正在为更长时间更高利率的情况做准备，他们预计美联储会推迟降息，而降息会间接降低房贷成本。那么卖房人感受如何？
他们的心态有些复杂。但Realtor. com的高级经济研究分析师汉纳·琼斯引用最新的卖房人调查结果称，最近许多卖房人后悔没有“抓住房地产市场更火爆的机会”，更快卖掉自己的房子。研究显示，79%的受访者有这种想法；2022年第四季度，房价达到史上最高点。有超过80%的受访者表示，已经考虑在一至三年内卖房。他们正在讨论，在抵押贷款利率更高的时候卖房，是否是在财务上合理的选择。
琼斯写道：“事实上，79%的潜在卖房人感觉低利率导致他们的房子‘被锁定’。尽管这个比例比去年低了三个百分点，但目前的抵押贷款利率影响了卖房人的情绪。”
约29%“被锁定的”潜在卖房人因为个人原因，需要尽快卖房（可能是需要更多或更少空间；或者因为结婚、生子、离婚等人生大事或职业相关问题）。但有一半潜在卖房人计划等待更低利率。约有80%的潜在卖房人预计买新房的抵押贷款利率，将高于当前的利率。这种状况背后的原因不难想象。Realtor.com网站估算普通未偿还抵押贷款利率低于4%；高盛（Goldman Sachs）曾估计，98%的借款人享受到了低于市场水平的抵押贷款利率。这其中并没有考虑到没有抵押贷款的美国人。
为了便于理解，我们可以考虑在不同利率下，同一价格的房屋的月供变化。假设一套售价600,000美元的房子，首付20%，这意味着按3%的抵押贷款利率贷款480,000美元，月供略高于2,000美元（不含税费或保险）。在相同的情况下，假设抵押贷款利率为7%，月供将接近3,200美元。由于贷款年限长达数年，因此会有巨大的差距。
但令卖房人不安的不只是抵押贷款利率。毕竟，总体而言，当前的房地产市场与疫情期间相比已经大幅降温（但这并没有考虑到区域差异：有些市场依旧非常火爆）。有15%的卖房人期待出价高于要价，比去年减少了一半。
琼斯写道：“相较于过去几年房地产市场有所降温，这意味着有15%的卖房人预计在一周内会收到购房人的出价，这个比例不到2023年（37%）的一半，此外有15%的卖房人期待购房人会愿意放弃房屋检查和评估等条件，以达成交易，这个比例也远低于2023年的35%。”
显然，尽管卖房人依旧占据上风，但他们调整了预期。但潜在卖房人期待的平均售价超过460,000美元。这接近于全美中位数房屋售价约418,000美元。有三分之一卖房人期待的售价为400,000至500,000美元。四分之一卖房人期待的售价为250,000至400,000美元；另外四分之一期待的售价为500,000至750,000美元。
这对于现房销售意味着什么？去年，由于人们不愿意卖房，现房销量降至近三十年最低水平，以至于美国总统乔·拜登都承认，没有人想要卖房。最新可用数据显示，二月，现房销量环比上涨，但同比下滑。目前无法确定市场走向。但Realtor.com预测，“今年抵押贷款利率会小幅下降，而有限的房屋库存意味着购房人渴望有新的选择，对于一些卖房人来说，2024年可能是进入市场的好时机。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
当抵押贷款利率从曾经的史上最低点飙升至20年新高时，会发生什么？人们停止卖房。有人停止买房。
抵押贷款利率较8.03%的最高点有所下降，但依旧远高于刺激疫情期间房地产市场繁荣的2%和3%的水平。最新数据显示，当前平均30年期固定抵押贷款利率为7.44%。上周，在高于预期的通胀报告出炉后，抵押贷款利率升至近五个月的最高水平。因此，更多观望中的购房人正在为更长时间更高利率的情况做准备，他们预计美联储会推迟降息，而降息会间接降低房贷成本。那么卖房人感受如何？
他们的心态有些复杂。但Realtor. com的高级经济研究分析师汉纳·琼斯引用最新的卖房人调查结果称，最近许多卖房人后悔没有“抓住房地产市场更火爆的机会”，更快卖掉自己的房子。研究显示，79%的受访者有这种想法；2022年第四季度，房价达到史上最高点。有超过80%的受访者表示，已经考虑在一至三年内卖房。他们正在讨论，在抵押贷款利率更高的时候卖房，是否是在财务上合理的选择。
琼斯写道：“事实上，79%的潜在卖房人感觉低利率导致他们的房子‘被锁定’。尽管这个比例比去年低了三个百分点，但目前的抵押贷款利率影响了卖房人的情绪。”
约29%“被锁定的”潜在卖房人因为个人原因，需要尽快卖房（可能是需要更多或更少空间；或者因为结婚、生子、离婚等人生大事或职业相关问题）。但有一半潜在卖房人计划等待更低利率。约有80%的潜在卖房人预计买新房的抵押贷款利率，将高于当前的利率。这种状况背后的原因不难想象。Realtor.com网站估算普通未偿还抵押贷款利率低于4%；高盛（Goldman Sachs）曾估计，98%的借款人享受到了低于市场水平的抵押贷款利率。这其中并没有考虑到没有抵押贷款的美国人。
为了便于理解，我们可以考虑在不同利率下，同一价格的房屋的月供变化。假设一套售价600,000美元的房子，首付20%，这意味着按3%的抵押贷款利率贷款480,000美元，月供略高于2,000美元（不含税费或保险）。在相同的情况下，假设抵押贷款利率为7%，月供将接近3,200美元。由于贷款年限长达数年，因此会有巨大的差距。
但令卖房人不安的不只是抵押贷款利率。毕竟，总体而言，当前的房地产市场与疫情期间相比已经大幅降温（但这并没有考虑到区域差异：有些市场依旧非常火爆）。有15%的卖房人期待出价高于要价，比去年减少了一半。
琼斯写道：“相较于过去几年房地产市场有所降温，这意味着有15%的卖房人预计在一周内会收到购房人的出价，这个比例不到2023年（37%）的一半，此外有15%的卖房人期待购房人会愿意放弃房屋检查和评估等条件，以达成交易，这个比例也远低于2023年的35%。”
显然，尽管卖房人依旧占据上风，但他们调整了预期。但潜在卖房人期待的平均售价超过460,000美元。这接近于全美中位数房屋售价约418,000美元。有三分之一卖房人期待的售价为400,000至500,000美元。四分之一卖房人期待的售价为250,000至400,000美元；另外四分之一期待的售价为500,000至750,000美元。
这对于现房销售意味着什么？去年，由于人们不愿意卖房，现房销量降至近三十年最低水平，以至于美国总统乔·拜登都承认，没有人想要卖房。最新可用数据显示，二月，现房销量环比上涨，但同比下滑。目前无法确定市场走向。但Realtor.com预测，“今年抵押贷款利率会小幅下降，而有限的房屋库存意味着购房人渴望有新的选择，对于一些卖房人来说，2024年可能是进入市场的好时机。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
What happens when mortgage rates that were once at historical lows shoot up to 20-year highs? People stop selling their homes. And some stop buying.
Mortgage rates have come down from their peak of 8.03%, but they’re still a far cry away from 2% and 3% rates that fueled the pandemic housing boom. The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.44%, as of the latest reading. Last week, after a hotter than expected inflation report, mortgage rates hit their highest level in almost five months. So more sidelined homebuyers are bracing for a higher-for-longer situation, in anticipation of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts that would indirectly lower the cost of a home loan. But how are sellers feeling?
It’s a mixed bag. But we know a lot of recent sellers wish they had sold their homes sooner so they could have “taken advantage of a hotter housing market,” Realtor.com’s senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones wrote, referring to a new sellers survey. The study shows that 79% of respondents feel that way; home prices were at their highest in the fourth quarter of 2022. Whereas more than 80% said they’ve been thinking about selling their home in maybe one to three years. They’re debating whether it makes financial sense to sell in a time of elevated mortgage rates.
“In fact, 79% of potential sellers feel locked in to their home due to a low interest rate,” Jones wrote. “Though the share of ‘locked in’ owners is three percentage points lower than last year, today’s mortgage rates are taking a toll on seller sentiment.”
Roughly 29% of “locked-in,” would-be sellers need to sell soon for personal reasons (whether that be a need for more or less space; or a major life event such as marriage, kids, divorce, or career-related issues). But half are planning to wait for lower rates, the survey found. And about eight in 10 expect their mortgage rate on their new home to be higher than their present situation. It’s not hard to imagine why. Realtor.com puts the typical outstanding mortgage at less than 4%; at one point, Goldman Sachs estimated 98% of borrowers had a below-market mortgage rate. And none of that accounts for the share of Americans who are simply mortgage-free.
To put it in perspective, consider the change in a monthly mortgage payment on the same-priced house but at different rates. Assuming 20% down on a $600,000 home, meaning a loan of $480,000 with a 3% mortgage rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be a little over $2,000 (that’s not including taxes or insurance). With the same exact circumstances but a 7% mortgage rate, the monthly payment would be close to $3,200. That’s a big difference, particularly in a matter of years.
But it’s not just mortgage rates that have sellers feeling uneasy. After all, it’s generally a much cooler housing market than that of the pandemic (although that doesn’t take into account regional variation: Some markets are very hot). Still, only 15% of sellers expect offers over the asking price; last year, it was double that.
“A less frenzied market from years past means 15% expect to have an offer within a week, less than half of the 2023 share (37%), and 15% expect buyers to be willing to forgo contingencies like inspections and appraisals to make the deal, down from 35% in 2023,” Jones wrote.
Clearly, sellers have adjusted their expectations, even if they still seem to have the upper hand. Nevertheless, would-be sellers are hoping to sell their homes for more than $460,000 on average. That’s not far from the median sales price for homes sold in the country, which is about $418,000. Meanwhile, a third hope to sell for anywhere between $400,000 and $500,000. And a quarter want to sell their homes for $250,000 to $400,000; another quarter expect to sell in the $500,000 to $750,000 range.
So what does this all mean for existing home sales? They fell to their lowest point in almost three decades last year because people weren’t selling their homes—so much so that President Joe Biden practically admitted that nobody wants to sell their home. In February, sales were up on a monthly basis, but down on an annual basis, the latest available data shows. So it’s not clear where they’re headed. But according to Realtor.com, “mortgage rates are expected to ease slightly this year, and limited home inventory means buyers are eager for fresh options, which means 2024 could be a good time to hop into the market for some sellers.”
