经济学家将2024年美国经济增长预测上调了近70%
美联社
2024-02-28
2月26日公布的一项调查显示，今年美国经济的表现似乎比商业经济学家在数月前的预测要好得多。
美国全国商业经济协会（National Association for Business Economics）的数据显示，经通胀调整后，美国经济今年预计增长2.2%。在该协会此前于2023年11月进行的调查中，来自大学、企业和投资公司的经济学家预测这一数字为1.3%。
这是经济强劲的最新信号，因为美国经济已经冲破了衰退预测。人们当时认为，旨在控制通胀的高利率会拖累经济。高利率给经济踩了一脚刹车，比如导致抵押贷款还款额和信用卡账单上涨，希望以此来抑制通胀。
但即使利率很高，就业市场和美国家庭支出却仍然保持着惊人的弹性。这反过来又改善了人们对未来的预期。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的首席美国经济学家兼美国全国商业经济协会主席艾伦·曾特纳（Ellen Zentner）表示，2024年经济预期上调背后有多种因素在起作用，包括政府和家庭支出。
经济学家还将今年整个经济领域新增就业岗位数量的预期提高了一倍以上，不过这一数字依旧有可能低于2023年的预期。
另一项提振因素是，通胀自两年前的夏天达到峰值以来，一直在降温。
虽然物价比消费者希望的要高，但增长速度不如以前快。通胀已经放缓到足以让大多数接受调查的预测者预计，美联储（Federal Reserve）将在今年6月中旬开始降息。
负责制定短期利率的美联储表示，今年可能会多次降息。这将缓解经济压力，同时推高股票和其他投资的价格。
当然，众所周知，利率变化需要很长时间才能够渗透到经济中并充分发挥作用。这意味着两年前开始的加息最终仍旧有可能使经济陷入衰退。
美国全国商业经济协会在调查中称，41%的受访者认为高利率是经济面临的最大风险。这一比例是其他受访者回答的两倍多，包括担心可能出现信贷紧缩或俄乌冲突或中东战争规模扩大。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
2月26日公布的一项调查显示，今年美国经济的表现似乎比商业经济学家在数月前的预测要好得多。
美国全国商业经济协会（National Association for Business Economics）的数据显示，经通胀调整后，美国经济今年预计增长2.2%。在该协会此前于2023年11月进行的调查中，来自大学、企业和投资公司的经济学家预测这一数字为1.3%。
这是经济强劲的最新信号，因为美国经济已经冲破了衰退预测。人们当时认为，旨在控制通胀的高利率会拖累经济。高利率给经济踩了一脚刹车，比如导致抵押贷款还款额和信用卡账单上涨，希望以此来抑制通胀。
但即使利率很高，就业市场和美国家庭支出却仍然保持着惊人的弹性。这反过来又改善了人们对未来的预期。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的首席美国经济学家兼美国全国商业经济协会主席艾伦·曾特纳（Ellen Zentner）表示，2024年经济预期上调背后有多种因素在起作用，包括政府和家庭支出。
经济学家还将今年整个经济领域新增就业岗位数量的预期提高了一倍以上，不过这一数字依旧有可能低于2023年的预期。
另一项提振因素是，通胀自两年前的夏天达到峰值以来，一直在降温。
虽然物价比消费者希望的要高，但增长速度不如以前快。通胀已经放缓到足以让大多数接受调查的预测者预计，美联储（Federal Reserve）将在今年6月中旬开始降息。
负责制定短期利率的美联储表示，今年可能会多次降息。这将缓解经济压力，同时推高股票和其他投资的价格。
当然，众所周知，利率变化需要很长时间才能够渗透到经济中并充分发挥作用。这意味着两年前开始的加息最终仍旧有可能使经济陷入衰退。
美国全国商业经济协会在调查中称，41%的受访者认为高利率是经济面临的最大风险。这一比例是其他受访者回答的两倍多，包括担心可能出现信贷紧缩或俄乌冲突或中东战争规模扩大。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released on February 26.
The economy looks set to grow 2.2% this year after adjusting for inflation, according to the National Association for Business Economics. That’s up from the 1.3% that economists from universities, businesses and investment firms predicted in the association’s prior survey, which was conducted in November.
It’s the latest signal of strength for an economy that’s blasted through predictions of a recession. High interest rates meant to get inflation under control were supposed to drag down the economy, the thinking went. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel.
But even with rates very high, the job market and U.S. household spending have remained remarkably resilient. That in turn has raised expectations going forward. Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and president of the NABE, said a wide range of factors are behind the 2024 upgrade, including spending by both the government and households.
Economists also more than doubled their estimates for the number of jobs gained across the economy this year, though it would still likely be down from the previous one.
Offering another boost is the fact that inflation has been cooling since its peak two summers ago.
While prices are higher than customers would like, they’re not increasing as quickly as they were before. Inflation has slowed enough that most of the surveyed forecasters expect interest rate cuts to begin by mid-June.
The Federal Reserve, which is in charge of setting short-term rates, has said it will likely cut them several times this year. That would relax the pressure on the economy, while goosing prices for stocks and other investments.
Of course, rate changes take a notoriously long time to snake through the economy and take full effect. That means past hikes, which began two years ago, could still ultimately tip the economy into a recession.
In its survey, NABE said 41% of respondents cited high rates as the most significant risk to the economy. That was more than double any other response, including fears of a possible credit crunch or a broadening of the wars in Ukraine or the Middle East.
