美国年轻人买房有多难：为交首付催收“份子钱”
今年的美国房市也是大起大落的一年。抵押贷款利率和房价居高不下，年轻人的买房梦变得越来越渺茫。虽然抵押贷款利率在10月份探顶（8%）后有所回落，但房价自1月份起就一直保持涨势，迫使很多人放弃了买房的念头。
美银研究所在今年12月初指出，买房已经成了美国年轻人今年最关心的问题，60%的年轻人比他们父母年轻的时候更关注买房问题。不过光有强烈的买房意愿是不够的，很多人的购房之路都是困难重重，拥有一套自己的房子甚至已经成了年轻人的一种奢望。
横亘在美国年轻人买房路上的“三座大山”分别是：攒首付难、高按揭利率和高房价。而房地产专家们都认为，这“三座大山”短期内想搬走哪一个都不容易。
霍夫斯特拉大学弗兰克扎布商学院教授、房地产金融投资专家安德鲁•斯皮勒对《财富》表示：“我不知道以后还会不会出现年轻人买房的好时机了。市场趋势一直是对他们越来越不利的。”
市场形势短期难转变
斯皮勒表示，消费者如果只盯着按揭利率和房价，则对房市的形势走向容易产生片面化的看法。实际上，市场形势发生实质性变化往往需要一年以上的时间，因此房市走向至少也得在2024年以后才会有实质性的变化，而不是在2024年年内。
“我不认为2024年是买房的好时机，最多能比现在的形势好一点点。”他说。
斯皮勒指出，美联储是在一年半以前才开始加息的，这对于房地产市场来说“不算一段很长的时间”。另外，美国房市近来出现了一些反直觉的现象，因为今年的按揭利率已经超过了过去20年的水平，而且房价还在逆势上涨。
“如果利率上涨，房价就应该下跌，但前提是卖家想要降低价格。但现在卖家的价格弹性并不大，尤其是从一开始就不大，所以卖家还得需要一段时间，才能真正对高利率和买家的负担能力下降做出反应。在我看来，一年的时间在这个周期中都不算是很长的时间。”
为了买房，年轻人使尽浑身解数
2023年，很多美国年轻人为了买房想尽了各种办法。有的为了攒首付而搞副业、做兼职，还有的小两口在结婚时明确要求亲友，参加我们的婚礼别带礼物，就给现金，我们急着交首付呢。
Zillow home Loans公司的私人理财专家阿曼达·彭德尔对《财富》表示，假设美国的房价中值是35万美元，那么按传统的首付20%算，一对夫妇至少也得拿出7万美元来交首付。“对于年轻夫妇来说，这已经是很吓人的一大笔钱了。”
Zillow高级经济学家尼科尔·巴豪德也表示：“虽然当前房市对人们的负担能力提出了很高要求，但很多首次购房者都在创造性地解决这个问题。有60%的首次购房者的首付款都至少来自两个来源——既有储蓄，也有亲朋好友的份子钱。”
比阿特丽斯·德容是洛杉矶贝弗利山庄的一位房地产经纪人，她表示，几乎所有年轻客户在买房时都离不开家庭的资助，有的是父母帮着掏首付，有的是共同申请贷款，还有的是按月帮着还按揭。
“以前年轻人买房的时候，家庭的参与是没有这么深的。”她说。
在现实中，还有很多年轻人自己实在买不起房，只得和父母共同买一套房子。
“还有很多年轻人在买房时就表示，他们打算和家人一起住，比如跟父母住在同一套房子里。”
2024年，美国年轻人可能还得继续在买房问题上发挥创造力。因为预测显示，明年的按揭利率可能还会保持在6%的区间。
“大家不得不现实地看待自己的负担能力问题。”德容说：“现在很多年轻人到了结婚和组建家庭的年龄，以现在这么高的房价水平，再想像他们的父辈当年那样买一套独栋带两车位的别墅肯定是不现实的，所以很多年轻人都在考虑买一间公寓楼房作为自己的第一套房。”（财富中文网）
译者：朴成奎
今年的美国房市也是大起大落的一年。抵押贷款利率和房价居高不下，年轻人的买房梦变得越来越渺茫。虽然抵押贷款利率在10月份探顶（8%）后有所回落，但房价自1月份起就一直保持涨势，迫使很多人放弃了买房的念头。
美银研究所在今年12月初指出，买房已经成了美国年轻人今年最关心的问题，60%的年轻人比他们父母年轻的时候更关注买房问题。不过光有强烈的买房意愿是不够的，很多人的购房之路都是困难重重，拥有一套自己的房子甚至已经成了年轻人的一种奢望。
横亘在美国年轻人买房路上的“三座大山”分别是：攒首付难、高按揭利率和高房价。而房地产专家们都认为，这“三座大山”短期内想搬走哪一个都不容易。
霍夫斯特拉大学弗兰克扎布商学院教授、房地产金融投资专家安德鲁•斯皮勒对《财富》表示：“我不知道以后还会不会出现年轻人买房的好时机了。市场趋势一直是对他们越来越不利的。”
市场形势短期难转变
斯皮勒表示，消费者如果只盯着按揭利率和房价，则对房市的形势走向容易产生片面化的看法。实际上，市场形势发生实质性变化往往需要一年以上的时间，因此房市走向至少也得在2024年以后才会有实质性的变化，而不是在2024年年内。
“我不认为2024年是买房的好时机，最多能比现在的形势好一点点。”他说。
斯皮勒指出，美联储是在一年半以前才开始加息的，这对于房地产市场来说“不算一段很长的时间”。另外，美国房市近来出现了一些反直觉的现象，因为今年的按揭利率已经超过了过去20年的水平，而且房价还在逆势上涨。
“如果利率上涨，房价就应该下跌，但前提是卖家想要降低价格。但现在卖家的价格弹性并不大，尤其是从一开始就不大，所以卖家还得需要一段时间，才能真正对高利率和买家的负担能力下降做出反应。在我看来，一年的时间在这个周期中都不算是很长的时间。”
为了买房，年轻人使尽浑身解数
2023年，很多美国年轻人为了买房想尽了各种办法。有的为了攒首付而搞副业、做兼职，还有的小两口在结婚时明确要求亲友，参加我们的婚礼别带礼物，就给现金，我们急着交首付呢。
Zillow home Loans公司的私人理财专家阿曼达·彭德尔对《财富》表示，假设美国的房价中值是35万美元，那么按传统的首付20%算，一对夫妇至少也得拿出7万美元来交首付。“对于年轻夫妇来说，这已经是很吓人的一大笔钱了。”
Zillow高级经济学家尼科尔·巴豪德也表示：“虽然当前房市对人们的负担能力提出了很高要求，但很多首次购房者都在创造性地解决这个问题。有60%的首次购房者的首付款都至少来自两个来源——既有储蓄，也有亲朋好友的份子钱。”
比阿特丽斯·德容是洛杉矶贝弗利山庄的一位房地产经纪人，她表示，几乎所有年轻客户在买房时都离不开家庭的资助，有的是父母帮着掏首付，有的是共同申请贷款，还有的是按月帮着还按揭。
“以前年轻人买房的时候，家庭的参与是没有这么深的。”她说。
在现实中，还有很多年轻人自己实在买不起房，只得和父母共同买一套房子。
“还有很多年轻人在买房时就表示，他们打算和家人一起住，比如跟父母住在同一套房子里。”
2024年，美国年轻人可能还得继续在买房问题上发挥创造力。因为预测显示，明年的按揭利率可能还会保持在6%的区间。
“大家不得不现实地看待自己的负担能力问题。”德容说：“现在很多年轻人到了结婚和组建家庭的年龄，以现在这么高的房价水平，再想像他们的父辈当年那样买一套独栋带两车位的别墅肯定是不现实的，所以很多年轻人都在考虑买一间公寓楼房作为自己的第一套房。”（财富中文网）
译者：朴成奎
It doesn’t seem to matter how badly younger generations want to buy a house—there are too many barriers for many of them to break into the housing market.
This year’s housing market was full of highs and lows: high mortgage rates and home prices and low morale for younger generations yearning to achieve the American dream. Mortgage rates peaked at 8% in October before retreating somewhat, while home prices have been rising since January, pricing many people out of the real estate market.
Buying a home has been top of mind for millennials and Gen Zers this year, with about 60% saying they think homeownership is more important than it was during their parents’ generation, Bank of America Institute said in early December. But it doesn’t seem to matter how badly younger generations want to buy a house—there are too many barriers for many of them to break into the housing market.
The difficulty of saving up for a down payment, relatively elevated mortgage rates, and high home prices top the list of troubles for millennials and Gen Zers. And none of that is getting easier anytime soon, housing experts agree.
“I don’t know if it’s ever going to be a young person’s good time to buy a home,” Andrew Spieler, a distinguished professor at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business who focuses on real estate finance and investment, tells Fortune. “The trends have been against them for a long time.”
Housing market conditions aren’t changing that rapidly
Consumers tend to oversimplify housing market conditions simply by tracking mortgage rates and home prices, Spieler says. In fact, it takes more than just a year for the market to really change, and therefore any meaningful difference in the current one will happen after 2024, not during.
“I don’t think it’s going to be a great buying opportunity” in 2024, he says. “It might be marginally better than where it sits right now.”
The Federal Reserve only started raising interest rates about a year and a half ago, he explains, which isn’t a “long time in real estate.” Plus, housing market conditions are working somewhat counterintuitively right now because mortgage rates this year were higher than in the past two decades and home prices are rising.
“If interest rates go up, housing prices should go down, but only if the sellers want to lower the price,” Spieler says. “And sellers are not very elastic, especially at the beginning. So it takes a while for sellers to really react to these higher interest rates and the decreased affordability of the buyer. A year, to me, is not even a long time in this cycle.”
Millennials get creative to afford homes
In 2023, some would-be millennial and Gen Z homebuyers tried improving their chances of breaking into the housing market. For example, more younger generation buyers are working side gigs in order to save up for a down payment, while others are asking for cash on their wedding registries to cover the cost of buying their first home.
Assuming a median home price of $350,000, a couple would need to come up with $70,000 for a traditional 20% down payment, which is “a lot of cash and can be very intimidating for young couples looking to buy their first home,” Amanda Pendleton, a personal finance expert at Zillow Home Loans, previously told Fortune.
“Even though affordability in this housing market is challenging, first-time buyers are getting creative to make it work, with 60% of first-time buyers using at least two sources to finance their down payment—typically savings and gifts from family or friends,” Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist with Zillow, previously told Fortune.
Beatrice de Jong, a real estate broker associate with the Beverly Hills Estates in Los Angeles, says that nearly all of her younger clients are getting financial help from family in order to buy a home, whether that’s helping with a down payment, cosigning on a loan, or helping with monthly mortgage payments.
“There’s a lot more family involvement than I’ve ever seen before,” she tells Fortune.
In fact, housing affordability has proved so challenging for younger generations that some millennials and Gen Zers have had to buy a house with their parents.
“I also see a lot of the millennial-age-range buyers purchasing homes with the intention of family living with them—like having their parents live in a separate unit, like an ADU [accessory dwelling unit], or maybe in the house with them,” de Jong says.
The creativity will likely have to continue into 2024 with forecasts showing that mortgage rates will probably stay in the 6% range for the year.
“People are just being forced into being more realistic about what they can afford,” de Jong says. “A lot of millennials are getting married and starting a family, but they’re probably looking at buying a condo as their first home because the home prices are so high. It’s just not realistic to think you can buy a house that has a two-car garage and the features that were so common growing up in the suburbs.”
