通胀降温和人工智能发展，美股将迎来创纪录的飙升
周二美股稍微喘了口气，连续六天上涨推动标普500指数从7月以来首次突破4500点后，回吐部分涨幅。但亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）创始人埃德·亚德尼认为，未来投资者还有更多盈利空间。“可能年底或明年初某个时候达到历史新高，”周一他发给客户的报告中写道。
这一年来市场资深观察人士亚德尼都很乐观，他认为美联储加息能做到抑制通胀又不造成衰退扼杀就业，这一结果被称为“软着陆”。年初，多家投资银行还在担心利率走高对企业盈利造成潜在影响，他就将标普500指数的年终目标点位定在了4600点（华尔街平均目标点位仅为4050点）。
亚德尼从业数十年，曾在德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）等华尔街巨头领导投资战略团队，他认为4600点的目标点位都有可能“过于保守”。他表示，2022年3月以来，美联储加息导致企业和消费者的借贷成本大幅提升，但就业市场、消费者支出以及工业产值都已充分证明经济的韧性，而且随着通胀消退，没必要进一步加息。
“尽管美联储采取紧缩政策，经济仍在增长，”他写道。“美联储官员认为，如果通胀继续降温，经济增长继续放缓，就可以停止加息，目前正是这种情况。”
亚德尼指出，10月衡量经济活动状况的同步经济指标（CEI）指数持平，表明经济在利率走高的压力下逐步降温但并未崩溃。“CEI放缓与预期中的软着陆情景一致，”他写道。
亚德尼指出，随着通胀逐步下降，未来几年人工智能等技术创新将推动生产力繁荣，可能会实现维持十年的增长和巨大的市场回报。“10月27日（最新修正的低点）以来股市垂直反弹，与技术和生产力主导的‘咆哮2020年代’情景越发一致，”他写道。
最近两份通胀报告都比预期稳健，石油和汽油价格下跌，再加上美国国内生产总值增长惊人强劲，因此多位专家对年底假日期间股市走势很乐观。
上周晚些时候，Main Street Research首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特对告诉《财富》杂志说，他认为通胀和美联储的加息运动已经“结束”。他指出，当前已进入由微软（Microsoft）、芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）和AMD等人工智能股票引领的新一轮牛市。瑞银全球财富管理公司（UBS Global Wealth Management）美洲首席投资官索利塔·马尔切利也表示，预计今年股市将继续上涨。
“标普500指数最新财报季显示，经历三个季度萎缩后，企业利润将恢复增长，”马尔切利周一在发给客户的一份报告中写道。“我们预测的基准情形是2024年股市将进一步小幅上涨，年底标普500指数能到4700点左右。”
然而她也警告称，股市派对面临着不少潜在威胁。如果有迹象显示通胀重新升温，市场可能因进一步加息的可能性“出现动荡”。
“俄乌战争以及哈以冲突都有可能引发波动，而且下一届美国总统大选也要遭逢预算程序日益失调的挑战，”马尔切利补充道。（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
周二美股稍微喘了口气，连续六天上涨推动标普500指数从7月以来首次突破4500点后，回吐部分涨幅。但亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）创始人埃德·亚德尼认为，未来投资者还有更多盈利空间。“可能年底或明年初某个时候达到历史新高，”周一他发给客户的报告中写道。
这一年来市场资深观察人士亚德尼都很乐观，他认为美联储加息能做到抑制通胀又不造成衰退扼杀就业，这一结果被称为“软着陆”。年初，多家投资银行还在担心利率走高对企业盈利造成潜在影响，他就将标普500指数的年终目标点位定在了4600点（华尔街平均目标点位仅为4050点）。
亚德尼从业数十年，曾在德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）等华尔街巨头领导投资战略团队，他认为4600点的目标点位都有可能“过于保守”。他表示，2022年3月以来，美联储加息导致企业和消费者的借贷成本大幅提升，但就业市场、消费者支出以及工业产值都已充分证明经济的韧性，而且随着通胀消退，没必要进一步加息。
“尽管美联储采取紧缩政策，经济仍在增长，”他写道。“美联储官员认为，如果通胀继续降温，经济增长继续放缓，就可以停止加息，目前正是这种情况。”
亚德尼指出，10月衡量经济活动状况的同步经济指标（CEI）指数持平，表明经济在利率走高的压力下逐步降温但并未崩溃。“CEI放缓与预期中的软着陆情景一致，”他写道。
亚德尼指出，随着通胀逐步下降，未来几年人工智能等技术创新将推动生产力繁荣，可能会实现维持十年的增长和巨大的市场回报。“10月27日（最新修正的低点）以来股市垂直反弹，与技术和生产力主导的‘咆哮2020年代’情景越发一致，”他写道。
最近两份通胀报告都比预期稳健，石油和汽油价格下跌，再加上美国国内生产总值增长惊人强劲，因此多位专家对年底假日期间股市走势很乐观。
上周晚些时候，Main Street Research首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特对告诉《财富》杂志说，他认为通胀和美联储的加息运动已经“结束”。他指出，当前已进入由微软（Microsoft）、芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）和AMD等人工智能股票引领的新一轮牛市。瑞银全球财富管理公司（UBS Global Wealth Management）美洲首席投资官索利塔·马尔切利也表示，预计今年股市将继续上涨。
“标普500指数最新财报季显示，经历三个季度萎缩后，企业利润将恢复增长，”马尔切利周一在发给客户的一份报告中写道。“我们预测的基准情形是2024年股市将进一步小幅上涨，年底标普500指数能到4700点左右。”
然而她也警告称，股市派对面临着不少潜在威胁。如果有迹象显示通胀重新升温，市场可能因进一步加息的可能性“出现动荡”。
“俄乌战争以及哈以冲突都有可能引发波动，而且下一届美国总统大选也要遭逢预算程序日益失调的挑战，”马尔切利补充道。（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
The stock market took a breather on Tuesday, paring some of its gains after a six-day rally pushed the S&P 500 above 4,500 for the first time since July. But Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, believes there’s more upside ahead for investors. “A move up to match the record high is conceivable either by year-end or sometime early next year,” he wrote in a Monday note to clients.
The veteran market watcher has been bullish all year, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes will tame inflation without sparking a job-killing recession—an outcome known as a “soft landing.” He even placed a 4,600 year-end price target on the S&P 500 at the start of the year when many investment banks were nervous about the potential impact of rising rates on corporate earnings (Wall Street’s average price target was just 4,050).
Now, Yardeni, who spent decades leading investment strategy teams at Deutsche Bank and other Wall Street giants, says that even his 4,600 target might have been “too conservative.” While the Fed’s interest rate hikes have dramatically increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers since March 2022, the job market, consumer spending, and industrial output have proven their resilience—and, with inflation fading, there’s no need for further rate hikes, he said.
“The economy is growing despite the Fed’s tightening,” he wrote. “Fed officials believe that they can stop raising the federal funds rate if inflation continues to cool and economic growth continues to slow, which is exactly what’s happening.”
Yardeni pointed to the flat October reading in the Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) index, which measures current economic activity, as his evidence that the economy is cooling down but not breaking under the weight of rising rates. “The slowdown in the CEI is consistent with our soft-landing scenario,” he wrote.
Just as inflation is coming down, Yardeni notes, technological innovations like AI are set to create a productivity boom in the coming years, which could lead to a decade of growth and outsize returns in the market. “The stock market’s vertical rally since October 27 (the latest correction low) is more consistent with our technology-and-productivity led Roaring 2020s scenario,” he wrote.
Two recent cooler-than-expected inflation reports, falling oil and gasoline prices, and surprisingly strong gross domestic product growth have many experts feeling bullish this holiday season.
James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research, also told Fortune late last week that he believes both inflation and the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign are “finished.” We’ve entered a new bull market that will be led by AI stocks like Microsoft and the chipmakers Nvidia and AMD, he argued. And UBS Global Wealth Management’s Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer of the Americas, said she, too, expects stocks to continue their rally this year.
“The S&P 500’s latest earnings season pointed to a return to profit growth after three quarters of contraction,” Marcelli wrote in a note to clients Monday. “Our base case is for further modest equity gains in 2024, with the S&P 500 Index ending the year around 4,700.”
However, she warned that there are a lot of potential threats to the stock market party out there. If there is any sign that inflation is reheating, the markets “could be unsettled” by the prospect of further rate hikes.
“The wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas both have the potential to trigger volatility,” Marcelli added. “And the U.S. presidential election takes place against a background of an increasingly dysfunctional budget process.”
