房地产估价网站Zillow预测美国房价将大涨
今年2月，房产估价网站Zillow的房产经济师曾大胆预测：美国房价已经见底，将在未来12个月开始其0.5%的增长之旅。
在做出这一预测数月前，跟踪美国房价的Zillow房屋价值指数（Zillow Home Value Index）不仅再次开始攀升，而且还创下了历史新高。这一上扬态势得益于库存紧张带来的助力。事实证明，这股助力足够强大，克服了房贷利率高企造成的阻力。
在美国房价回弹之际，Zillow已经多次上调了其房价预测。其最新的调整预测——在2023年7月至2024年7月期间，美国房价将上涨6.5%，高于上个月6.3%的涨幅预测。相比之下，凯斯-席勒跟踪的美国房价自1975年以来的年均涨幅达到了5.5%。
Zillow房产经济师写道：“即便房贷利率依然居高不下，但库存的限量发售在不断推高房价。7月在售房屋数量仅有2019年同期的一半多一点，而且新挂牌房屋数量比疫情前同期典型数量少了29%。这种短缺现象促使人们竞相购买在售房屋。7月，在售房产签约（待成交）的天数为12天，比2018年和2019年的典型天数缩短了约10天。”
尽管Zillow经济师预测全美房价在未来12个月将增长6.5%，但其预测模型预计，在美国排名前400的房屋市场中，有120个在未来将出现7.0%或更高的增长。
这个现象无法用一个统一的原因来解释，因为上述120个房产市场遍布全美。这些市场遍布西部（例如加州圣玛丽亚）、南部（坦帕）、中西部（印第安纳波利斯）和东北部（滨州斯克兰顿）。
尽管Zillow认为美国房价已经触底——CoreLogic和AEI Housing Center亦持此看法，但并非每一家公司都认同这一观点。像穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）等公司则认为美国房价还有下探空间，而且将在2024年底之前出现。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
今年2月，房产估价网站Zillow的房产经济师曾大胆预测：美国房价已经见底，将在未来12个月开始其0.5%的增长之旅。
在做出这一预测数月前，跟踪美国房价的Zillow房屋价值指数（Zillow Home Value Index）不仅再次开始攀升，而且还创下了历史新高。这一上扬态势得益于库存紧张带来的助力。事实证明，这股助力足够强大，克服了房贷利率高企造成的阻力。
在美国房价回弹之际，Zillow已经多次上调了其房价预测。其最新的调整预测——在2023年7月至2024年7月期间，美国房价将上涨6.5%，高于上个月6.3%的涨幅预测。相比之下，凯斯-席勒跟踪的美国房价自1975年以来的年均涨幅达到了5.5%。
Zillow房产经济师写道：“即便房贷利率依然居高不下，但库存的限量发售在不断推高房价。7月在售房屋数量仅有2019年同期的一半多一点，而且新挂牌房屋数量比疫情前同期典型数量少了29%。这种短缺现象促使人们竞相购买在售房屋。7月，在售房产签约（待成交）的天数为12天，比2018年和2019年的典型天数缩短了约10天。”
尽管Zillow经济师预测全美房价在未来12个月将增长6.5%，但其预测模型预计，在美国排名前400的房屋市场中，有120个在未来将出现7.0%或更高的增长。
这个现象无法用一个统一的原因来解释，因为上述120个房产市场遍布全美。这些市场遍布西部（例如加州圣玛丽亚）、南部（坦帕）、中西部（印第安纳波利斯）和东北部（滨州斯克兰顿）。
尽管Zillow认为美国房价已经触底——CoreLogic和AEI Housing Center亦持此看法，但并非每一家公司都认同这一观点。像穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）等公司则认为美国房价还有下探空间，而且将在2024年底之前出现。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
Back in February, Zillow’s housing economists made a bold call that U.S. home prices had bottomed and would proceed to climb 0.5% over the next 12 months.
In the months preceding that call, U.S. home prices as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index not only began to climb again but also reached a new all-time high. This uptick was propelled by the tailwind generated from tight inventory levels, which proved strong enough to overpower the headwind caused by the mortgage rate shock.
That U.S. house price rebound coincided with Zillow repeatedly revising its home price forecast upward. Its latest revision predicts that U.S. home prices will rise 6.5% between July 2023 and July 2024—up from the 6.3% call it made last month. For perspective, U.S. home prices as tracked by Case-Shiller have averaged a 5.5% annual increase since 1975.
“Limited for-sale inventory continues to push home prices upward even as mortgage rates remain elevated,” wrote Zillow housing economists. “Just over half as many homes were listed for sale in July compared to the same month in 2019, and 29% fewer new listings entered the market in July than what was typical this time of year prior to the pandemic. This shortage has buoyed competition for the homes that are for sale. Homes that went under contract (or “pending”) in July did so in 12 days, a week and a half faster than what was typical in 2018 and 2019.”
While Zillow economists expect national home prices to rise 6.5% over the coming 12 months, their forecast model predicts that 120 of the nation's 400 largest housing markets will see increases of 7.0% or greater over the next 12 months.
There isn't just one unifying factor; these 120 housing markets are located all over the country. They're spread over the West (like Santa Maria, Calif.), South (Tampa), Midwest (Indianapolis), and Northeast (Scranton, Pa.).
While Zillow thinks U.S. home prices have bottomed—something that economists at CoreLogic and the AEI Housing Center also believe—not every firm agrees. Firms like Moody's Analytics and Morgan Stanley think U.S. home prices have a little more to give up, and it will happen between now and the end of 2024.
