明年美国经济增长将放缓，失业率会上升，但幅度都不会很大
美国国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）周三报告称，今年迄今为止的经济和就业增长优于2月的预期，但其一份最新的展望报告显示，部分经济领域将在2024年前走弱。
无党派机构美国国会预算办公室最新发布的十年预算与经济展望报告表明，要搞清楚美国在新冠疫情过后将何去何从是极难的。美联储旨在对抗高通胀的加息并未导致大规模裁员和经济衰退，反而使经济增长和招聘需求保持相对稳健，这让许多经济学家和投资者猝不及防。
美国国会预算办公室表示，预计在今年剩下的时间里，利率将继续上涨，国内生产总值增长将减缓；到2024年底，失业率将达到4.7%。
今年2月，该机构预计失业率将跃升至5.1%，而目前该值为3.6%。现在他们估计，到今年年底失业率将升至约4.1%。
由于雇主的雇用需求减少，预计今年晚些时候消费者支出将有所缩减，劳动力参与率也会降低。
值得高兴的是，通胀有望下降，因为美联储采取了措施来抑制物价的上涨——去年6月，美国物价同比涨幅达到40年来最高水平。美联储试图通过上调基准利率来降低通胀。周三，美联储17个月来第11次上调关键利率，使其从约5.1%升至5.3%，达到自2001年以来的最高水平。
美国国会预算办公室发布的预测通常比美联储等其他预测机构更为悲观。这份最新报告承认预测具有不确定性，称“预测存在着极大的不确定性，许多因素都可能会导致截然不同的结果。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-刘嘉欢
美国国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）周三报告称，今年迄今为止的经济和就业增长优于2月的预期，但其一份最新的展望报告显示，部分经济领域将在2024年前走弱。
无党派机构美国国会预算办公室最新发布的十年预算与经济展望报告表明，要搞清楚美国在新冠疫情过后将何去何从是极难的。美联储旨在对抗高通胀的加息并未导致大规模裁员和经济衰退，反而使经济增长和招聘需求保持相对稳健，这让许多经济学家和投资者猝不及防。
美国国会预算办公室表示，预计在今年剩下的时间里，利率将继续上涨，国内生产总值增长将减缓；到2024年底，失业率将达到4.7%。
今年2月，该机构预计失业率将跃升至5.1%，而目前该值为3.6%。现在他们估计，到今年年底失业率将升至约4.1%。
由于雇主的雇用需求减少，预计今年晚些时候消费者支出将有所缩减，劳动力参与率也会降低。
值得高兴的是，通胀有望下降，因为美联储采取了措施来抑制物价的上涨——去年6月，美国物价同比涨幅达到40年来最高水平。美联储试图通过上调基准利率来降低通胀。周三，美联储17个月来第11次上调关键利率，使其从约5.1%升至5.3%，达到自2001年以来的最高水平。
美国国会预算办公室发布的预测通常比美联储等其他预测机构更为悲观。这份最新报告承认预测具有不确定性，称“预测存在着极大的不确定性，许多因素都可能会导致截然不同的结果。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-刘嘉欢
The Congressional Budget Office reported Wednesday that economic and job growth so far this year has been stronger than forecast in February, but an updated outlook sees parts of the economy as weakening through 2024.
The latest 10-year budget and economic outlook from the nonpartisan office shows how difficult it is to figure out where the United States is going in the wake of the pandemic. Many economists and investors were caught off guard as Federal Reserve interest rate increases, intended to combat high inflation, have not led to mass layoffs and a recession. Rather, growth and hiring have stayed relatively solid.
The CBO said it expects rates to continue to rise, as well as slower growth in the gross domestic product for the rest of this year and unemployment reaching 4.7% by the end of 2024.
In February, the agency projected that the unemployment rate would jump to 5.1%. It currently stands at 3.6%. The CBO now estimates that rate will end the year at roughly 4.1%.
Consumer spending is expected to flag later this year and labor force participation to decline as employers need fewer workers.
In a bright spot, inflation is expected to decline due to actions by the Fed to tame price increases, which rose at the highest annual pace in four decades in June of last year. The central bank has tried to reduce inflation by raising its benchmark interest rates. The Fed on Wednesday raised its key rate for the 11th time in 17 months, from roughly 5.1% to 5.3%, its highest level since 2001.
The CBO issues projections that are generally more pessimistic than those of other forecasters such as the Fed. The latest report acknowledges that uncertainty, saying “projections are highly uncertain, and many factors could lead to different outcomes.”
