这个指标走高，表明美国通胀压力依然很大
美国一项关键物价指标4月份走高，消费者支出出现反弹，这表明美国经济的通胀压力仍然很大。
美联储密切关注的通胀指标显示，3月至4月，物价上涨0.4%，远高于前一个月0.1%的涨幅。根据政府周五的报告，4月份物价同比上涨4.4%，高于3月份的4.2%。同比数据较去年6月7%的峰值大幅下降，但仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
尽管物价上涨，但消费者上个月的支出仍然保持强劲：3月至4月，消费者支出跃升了0.8%，为1月份以来的最大增幅。
尽管人们长期以来一直预测经济衰退即将到来，但周五的报告突出了美国经济惊人的弹性。即使物价持续上涨，美国人，至少是那些收入较高的人，显然仍愿意消费。推动美国经济增长的主要因素是消费者支出，而就业增长和工资上涨提振了消费。
今年前三个月，美国经济增长放缓，年增长率为1.3%，但预计今年第二季度（4-6月）的经济增长速度将提高至2%。
周五公布的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数与政府更为知名的消费者物价指数（CPI）是分开的。美国政府本月早些时候公布，4月份CPI较12个月前上涨4.9%。
自通胀飙升（疫情造成的经济衰退后）以来，个人消费支出指数往往比CPI显示出更低的通胀水平。部分原因是租金在CPI中的权重是个人消费支出（PCE）的两倍，而租金是最大的通胀驱动因素之一。此外，个人消费支出指数试图反映通胀飙升时人们购物方式的变化。因此，它可以捕捉到新出现的趋势——例如，当消费者从昂贵的全国性品牌转向更便宜的零售商品牌时。
美联储官员特别关注一种被称为核心通胀的价格类别，该指数不包括波动较大的能源和食品成本，被认为是衡量基本通胀的更好指标。3月至4月，核心价格指数上涨0.4%，与上月持平，较12个月前上涨4.7%。自12月首次触及4.6%以来，核心通胀率同比几乎持平。
最新通胀数据出炉之际，美联储官员就下一步举措展开热烈讨论。在过去14个月里，美联储已10次上调关键利率。数位政策制定者表示，他们倾向于在未来几个月进一步加息。但大多数美联储观察人士预计，美联储将在6月中旬的下次会议上放弃再次加息——包括美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在内的一些高层政策制定者似乎支持这一立场。
鲍威尔上周表示，在将基准利率上调至约5.1%的16年高点后，美联储官员可以等待一段时间，看看加息对经济产生了怎样的影响。加息可能需要一年或更长时间，才能使就业市场和整体经济显现明显降温迹象。
美联储的最终目标是提高消费者和企业的借贷成本，从而减少支出，减缓经济增长，并抑制通胀。美联储加息导致抵押贷款利率翻了一倍多，并提高了汽车贷款、信用卡贷款和商业贷款的成本。美联储加息也加剧了经济衰退的风险，大多数经济学家预测经济衰退将在今年某个时候开始。
甚至一些可能支持6月不再继续加息的官员，如美联储颇具影响力的理事会成员菲利普·杰弗逊（Philip Jefferson），也表示他们对通胀放缓的幅度没有比现在更大感到失望。最近的通胀压力在很大程度上反映了服务价格的持续上涨，包括餐饮、酒店客房和汽车维修。
通货膨胀是数百万美国人对经济前景感到悲观的一大重要原因，尽管失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低点3.4%，许多工作者的工资也得到了稳定增长。
然而，美联储本周的一份报告发现，平均而言，通货膨胀超过了工资增长，使许多人的生活状况变得更糟。去年年底，略低于四分之三的美国人表示，他们的财务状况“尚可”或生活舒适。这一数字比前一年下降了5个百分点，是自2016年开始调查以来的最低水平之一。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
美国一项关键物价指标4月份走高，消费者支出出现反弹，这表明美国经济的通胀压力仍然很大。
美联储密切关注的通胀指标显示，3月至4月，物价上涨0.4%，远高于前一个月0.1%的涨幅。根据政府周五的报告，4月份物价同比上涨4.4%，高于3月份的4.2%。同比数据较去年6月7%的峰值大幅下降，但仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
尽管物价上涨，但消费者上个月的支出仍然保持强劲：3月至4月，消费者支出跃升了0.8%，为1月份以来的最大增幅。
尽管人们长期以来一直预测经济衰退即将到来，但周五的报告突出了美国经济惊人的弹性。即使物价持续上涨，美国人，至少是那些收入较高的人，显然仍愿意消费。推动美国经济增长的主要因素是消费者支出，而就业增长和工资上涨提振了消费。
今年前三个月，美国经济增长放缓，年增长率为1.3%，但预计今年第二季度（4-6月）的经济增长速度将提高至2%。
周五公布的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数与政府更为知名的消费者物价指数（CPI）是分开的。美国政府本月早些时候公布，4月份CPI较12个月前上涨4.9%。
自通胀飙升（疫情造成的经济衰退后）以来，个人消费支出指数往往比CPI显示出更低的通胀水平。部分原因是租金在CPI中的权重是个人消费支出（PCE）的两倍，而租金是最大的通胀驱动因素之一。此外，个人消费支出指数试图反映通胀飙升时人们购物方式的变化。因此，它可以捕捉到新出现的趋势——例如，当消费者从昂贵的全国性品牌转向更便宜的零售商品牌时。
美联储官员特别关注一种被称为核心通胀的价格类别，该指数不包括波动较大的能源和食品成本，被认为是衡量基本通胀的更好指标。3月至4月，核心价格指数上涨0.4%，与上月持平，较12个月前上涨4.7%。自12月首次触及4.6%以来，核心通胀率同比几乎持平。
最新通胀数据出炉之际，美联储官员就下一步举措展开热烈讨论。在过去14个月里，美联储已10次上调关键利率。数位政策制定者表示，他们倾向于在未来几个月进一步加息。但大多数美联储观察人士预计，美联储将在6月中旬的下次会议上放弃再次加息——包括美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在内的一些高层政策制定者似乎支持这一立场。
鲍威尔上周表示，在将基准利率上调至约5.1%的16年高点后，美联储官员可以等待一段时间，看看加息对经济产生了怎样的影响。加息可能需要一年或更长时间，才能使就业市场和整体经济显现明显降温迹象。
美联储的最终目标是提高消费者和企业的借贷成本，从而减少支出，减缓经济增长，并抑制通胀。美联储加息导致抵押贷款利率翻了一倍多，并提高了汽车贷款、信用卡贷款和商业贷款的成本。美联储加息也加剧了经济衰退的风险，大多数经济学家预测经济衰退将在今年某个时候开始。
甚至一些可能支持6月不再继续加息的官员，如美联储颇具影响力的理事会成员菲利普·杰弗逊（Philip Jefferson），也表示他们对通胀放缓的幅度没有比现在更大感到失望。最近的通胀压力在很大程度上反映了服务价格的持续上涨，包括餐饮、酒店客房和汽车维修。
通货膨胀是数百万美国人对经济前景感到悲观的一大重要原因，尽管失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低点3.4%，许多工作者的工资也得到了稳定增长。
然而，美联储本周的一份报告发现，平均而言，通货膨胀超过了工资增长，使许多人的生活状况变得更糟。去年年底，略低于四分之三的美国人表示，他们的财务状况“尚可”或生活舒适。这一数字比前一年下降了5个百分点，是自2016年开始调查以来的最低水平之一。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
A key index of U.S. prices ticked higher in April, and consumer spending rebounded, a sign that inflationary pressures in the economy remain high.
The index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, showed that prices rose 0.4% from March to April, much higher than the 0.1% rise the previous month. Measured year over year, prices were up 4.4% in April, up from 4.2% in March, according to Friday’s report from the government. The year-over-year figure is down sharply from a 7% peak last June but remains far above the Fed’s 2% target.
Consumers kept spending last month despite the price rise: Their spending jumped 0.8% from March to April, the biggest increase since January.
Despite longstanding predictions of a forthcoming recession, Friday’s report underscores the U.S. economy’s surprising resilience. Americans, at least those with higher incomes, are clearly still willing to spend even as prices have continued to rise. Consumer spending, which drives most of the U.S. economy, has been bolstered by solid job gains and pay increases.
The economy, which grew at a sluggish 1.3% annual rate in the first three months of the year, is projected to accelerate to a 2% pace in the current April-June quarter.
The inflation gauge that was issued Friday, called the personal consumption expenditures price index, is separate from the government’s better-known consumer price index. The government reported earlier this month that the CPI rose 4.9% in April from 12 months earlier.
Since inflation began surging after the pandemic recession, the PCE index has tended to show lower inflation than CPI. In part, that was because rents, which were among the biggest inflation drivers, carry twice the weight in the CPI that they do in the PCE. In addition, the PCE index seeks to account for changes in how people shop when inflation jumps. As a result, it can capture emerging trends — when, for example, consumers shift away from pricey national brands in favor of cheaper store brands.
Fed officials particularly watch a category of prices called core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food costs and is considered a better gauge of underlying inflation. Core prices rose 0.4% from March to April, the same as in the previous month, and 4.7% from 12 months earlier. The year-over-year core inflation figure has changed little since it first touched 4.6% in December.
The latest inflation figures arrive as Fed officials are noisily debating their next steps after having raised their key interest rate 10 times in the past 14 months. Several of the policymakers have said they favor raising rates even higher in the coming months. But most Fed watchers expect the central bank to forgo another hike at its next meeting in mid-June — a stance that some top policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, appear to support.
Powell said last week that after raising its benchmark rate to a 16-year high of about 5.1%, Fed officials can afford to wait and see how those increases have affected the economy. It can take a year or more for rate hikes to significantly slow the job market and the overall economy.
The Fed’s ultimate goal is to make borrowing costlier for consumers and businesses and thereby reduce spending, growth and inflation. Its rate increases have led to a more than doubling of mortgage rates and elevated the costs of auto loans, credit card borrowing and business loans. They have also heightened the risk of a recession, which most economists predict will begin sometime this year.
Even some officials who likely favor skipping a rate hike in June, like Philip Jefferson, a member of the Fed’s influential Board of Governors, have said they are disappointed that inflation hasn’t slowed more than it has. Much of the latest inflation pressure reflects persistently higher prices for services, including restaurant meals, hotel rooms and auto maintenance.
Inflation is a big reason why millions of Americans have expressed a gloomy outlook about the economy, even though the unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.4% and many workers have received solid pay gains.
Yet a Federal Reserve report this week found that, on average, inflation has outstripped those wage increases and left many people worse off. At the end of last year, just below three-quarters of Americans said they were “doing OK” financially or living comfortably. That marked a drop of 5 percentage points from the previous year and was among the lowest such levels measured since the survey began in 2016.
