立即打开
在购房方面,婴儿潮一代与千禧一代是敌是友?

在购房方面,婴儿潮一代与千禧一代是敌是友?

CHLOE BERGER 2023-05-30
令千禧一代感到尴尬的是,父母辈在看房开价时会给出比自己更高的价格。

在竞争购买同样的住房时,婴儿潮一代比千禧一代更具优势。图片来源:MOMO PRODUCTIONS—GETTY IMAGES

一直以来,千禧一代都没有赶上什么好时候,新冠疫情对于他们来说就像一把双刃剑。一些人失去了住所,但很多人在新冠疫情期间攒了不少钱,而且其财富较之前翻了一番。这一现象与千禧一代进入购房高峰年龄相吻合,新冠疫情第二年,婴儿新生潮便开始涌现,此时,近半数的千禧一代开始加入由来已久的美国梦大军——迁至郊外。然而,在了解了当前房产市场的现状之后,千禧一代脑海中响起的可能是查理∙布朗悲怆的音乐,并选择悄然离场。大量的学生债、衰退以及超过其薪资增速的生活成本,都让千禧一代无法像其父辈或祖父辈那样积累财富。更有甚者,美国一位专注于房产研究的著名经济学家在一番计算之后发现了一个惊人的事实:千禧一代的父辈,也就是看似赶上了过去50年中所有经济福利的婴儿潮一代,正在抢夺所有的起步房,并将其变为自己的退休住所,而这位经济学家自己就是千禧一代。

阿里∙沃尔夫是Zonda的首席经济学家,研究房地产至少有10年时间。Zonda是房地产数据与咨询服务提供商。作为一名千禧一代,沃尔夫亲身经历了千禧一代所面临的困境。沃尔夫住在南加州,该州基本就是美国房产短缺以及随之而来的代际冲突的代名词。

沃尔夫称,随着婴儿潮一代人数的减少,千禧一代终于进入了房地产市场,两者之间开始直接竞争有着类似定价和大小的房产。

沃尔夫对《财富》杂志说:“在当今的房产市场,婴儿潮一代与部分千禧一代的购房重叠度很高。”她研究的对象包括空巢老人婴儿潮夫妻和没有小孩或孩子不大的千禧一代。事实上,前一组人群正在寻找其退休后的住所,而后者则在寻找其起步房,双方都得为此付出代价。“这里的主要区别在于,婴儿潮一代可以通过出售其现有房产来利用其房产净值,并以此来提供比后者更具吸引力的房屋报价,何况后者依然是在租房。”

婴儿潮一代正在经历两件事情。沃尔夫解释说:来自于美国退休人员协会(AARP)的数据线显示,大多数婴儿潮一代打算住在现居所,但全美地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)称,如今的顶级买家和房产卖方都是婴儿潮一代。越来越多的婴儿潮一代很快将退休。育儿成本的飙升让婴儿潮一代通过变卖房产或搬迁至孩子附近,来帮助其千禧一代的孩子,并提供额外的帮助来照看在新冠疫情间诞生的孙子辈。不过具有讽刺意味的是,此举将其孩子(及其孩子的朋友)挤出了房产市场。沃尔夫称,Zonda已经开始通过“婴儿追逐者”(Baby Chaser)指数来跟踪这一动态。该指数跟踪了那些婴儿潮一代父母会尽职尽责地跟随孩子搬迁的城市(最终助推了一些生活成本较低的城市出现了更为显著的迁移模式,例如夏洛特、北卡罗来纳州。)”沃尔夫表示,Zonda数据现实,25%的婴儿潮一代都迁至离其孙子辈一代更近的地域。最近,Zonda发现,这些婴儿追逐者通常会搬迁至东南部,该地区已经因其对各个年龄段都十分友好的房价而成为了购房者的热土。

令千禧一代感到尴尬的是,父母辈在看房开价时会给出比自己更高的价格。沃尔夫解释说,婴儿潮一代有自己的优势,然而,他们寻找的房子与千禧一代寻找的起步房类似,面积都不大,但婴儿潮一代通常能够现金全款买房。

有鉴于年轻人本身的特点以及在积累财富方面的霉运,千禧一代在购房方面存在劣势,因为婴儿潮一代通常在购房方面显得“财大气粗”,而且对于价格没有那么敏感。沃尔夫对《财富》杂志说,值得留意的一点在于:一些婴儿潮一代和千禧一代都在寻找同样的房型,而且婴儿潮一代经常有条件给出更有竞争力的报价。因此,由于与其父母一代重叠,“希望加入购房阵营的年轻人”在房产市场中面临着巨大的挑战。

在某一点上,千禧一代与婴儿潮一代之间的竞争更像是有婴儿潮一代帮衬的千禧一代与婴儿潮一代自身的竞争。由于手头比其孩子更宽裕,很多父母称自己给了不少赞助,就是为了让孩子获得优势,并在动荡的经济环境中为孩子提供一臂之力。在其父母过世后,千禧一代有望获得更多的意外之财和慷慨赠与,正如经济学家诺亚·史密斯在推文中写道,千禧一代在其50岁左右时会发现自己的人生轨迹发生变化,而且其父母会留给其宝贵却又令人焦虑的房地产。尽管如此,即便千禧一代在晚些时候能够迎头赶上,但这种方式“依然不是一个社会进行财富分配的好方法。”

即便最富有的千禧一代也都在租房住,而且买房人与租房人之间还掀起了一场不同的战争,已购房的千禧一代在对抗其亦敌亦友的婴儿潮一代时会显得更从容一些。沃尔夫补充说:“那些租房住的千禧一代当前正面临着真正的挑战,因为房价升高了,房贷利率高居不下,而且整体房产供应低迷。”很大一部分婴儿潮人士都是房屋所有者。沃尔夫指出,43%的有房婴儿潮一代没有抵押贷款。她指出,这个群体的另一个优势在于,他们在股市中有更多的投资。这两个优势加起来“让很多婴儿潮一代在财富总量方面处于健康水平。”

另一方面,很多千禧一代直接放弃购房,将美国梦远远抛开,因为他们觉得这种梦仅适合于少数人,而且都是很久远的事情了。哈里斯研究中心(Harris)的调查显示,大多数(56%)的千禧一代认为,其购买自有房屋的梦想已经破灭。令人感到些许乐观的是,阿默普莱斯金融公司(Ameriprise Financial)发现约60%的千禧一代对于自身经济状况感到十分乐观,出现这一情况的原因在于,78%的千禧一代依赖于其父母提供的一些帮助。对于千禧一代来说,大环境也有所好转,沃尔夫解释说,那些还在租房的人“不应该认为市场在近期会向买方倾斜”,因为供应依然有限,而且还存在对于价格不怎么敏感的买家。经济的衰退可能会扭转这一局面,但沃尔夫指出,经济衰退也不能改变的事实在于,为大量买方修建平价房屋将变得越发困难。她还表示,尽管房地产市场可能会降温,但“在可预见的未来,购买入门级房产对于很多看房者来说依然是一个挑战。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

一直以来,千禧一代都没有赶上什么好时候,新冠疫情对于他们来说就像一把双刃剑。一些人失去了住所,但很多人在新冠疫情期间攒了不少钱,而且其财富较之前翻了一番。这一现象与千禧一代进入购房高峰年龄相吻合,新冠疫情第二年,婴儿新生潮便开始涌现,此时,近半数的千禧一代开始加入由来已久的美国梦大军——迁至郊外。然而,在了解了当前房产市场的现状之后,千禧一代脑海中响起的可能是查理∙布朗悲怆的音乐,并选择悄然离场。大量的学生债、衰退以及超过其薪资增速的生活成本,都让千禧一代无法像其父辈或祖父辈那样积累财富。更有甚者,美国一位专注于房产研究的著名经济学家在一番计算之后发现了一个惊人的事实:千禧一代的父辈,也就是看似赶上了过去50年中所有经济福利的婴儿潮一代,正在抢夺所有的起步房,并将其变为自己的退休住所,而这位经济学家自己就是千禧一代。

阿里∙沃尔夫是Zonda的首席经济学家,研究房地产至少有10年时间。Zonda是房地产数据与咨询服务提供商。作为一名千禧一代,沃尔夫亲身经历了千禧一代所面临的困境。沃尔夫住在南加州,该州基本就是美国房产短缺以及随之而来的代际冲突的代名词。

沃尔夫称,随着婴儿潮一代人数的减少,千禧一代终于进入了房地产市场,两者之间开始直接竞争有着类似定价和大小的房产。

沃尔夫对《财富》杂志说:“在当今的房产市场,婴儿潮一代与部分千禧一代的购房重叠度很高。”她研究的对象包括空巢老人婴儿潮夫妻和没有小孩或孩子不大的千禧一代。事实上,前一组人群正在寻找其退休后的住所,而后者则在寻找其起步房,双方都得为此付出代价。“这里的主要区别在于,婴儿潮一代可以通过出售其现有房产来利用其房产净值,并以此来提供比后者更具吸引力的房屋报价,何况后者依然是在租房。”

婴儿潮一代正在经历两件事情。沃尔夫解释说:来自于美国退休人员协会(AARP)的数据线显示,大多数婴儿潮一代打算住在现居所,但全美地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)称,如今的顶级买家和房产卖方都是婴儿潮一代。越来越多的婴儿潮一代很快将退休。育儿成本的飙升让婴儿潮一代通过变卖房产或搬迁至孩子附近,来帮助其千禧一代的孩子,并提供额外的帮助来照看在新冠疫情间诞生的孙子辈。不过具有讽刺意味的是,此举将其孩子(及其孩子的朋友)挤出了房产市场。沃尔夫称,Zonda已经开始通过“婴儿追逐者”(Baby Chaser)指数来跟踪这一动态。该指数跟踪了那些婴儿潮一代父母会尽职尽责地跟随孩子搬迁的城市(最终助推了一些生活成本较低的城市出现了更为显著的迁移模式,例如夏洛特、北卡罗来纳州。)”沃尔夫表示,Zonda数据现实,25%的婴儿潮一代都迁至离其孙子辈一代更近的地域。最近,Zonda发现,这些婴儿追逐者通常会搬迁至东南部,该地区已经因其对各个年龄段都十分友好的房价而成为了购房者的热土。

令千禧一代感到尴尬的是,父母辈在看房开价时会给出比自己更高的价格。沃尔夫解释说,婴儿潮一代有自己的优势,然而,他们寻找的房子与千禧一代寻找的起步房类似,面积都不大,但婴儿潮一代通常能够现金全款买房。

有鉴于年轻人本身的特点以及在积累财富方面的霉运,千禧一代在购房方面存在劣势,因为婴儿潮一代通常在购房方面显得“财大气粗”,而且对于价格没有那么敏感。沃尔夫对《财富》杂志说,值得留意的一点在于:一些婴儿潮一代和千禧一代都在寻找同样的房型,而且婴儿潮一代经常有条件给出更有竞争力的报价。因此,由于与其父母一代重叠,“希望加入购房阵营的年轻人”在房产市场中面临着巨大的挑战。

在某一点上,千禧一代与婴儿潮一代之间的竞争更像是有婴儿潮一代帮衬的千禧一代与婴儿潮一代自身的竞争。由于手头比其孩子更宽裕,很多父母称自己给了不少赞助,就是为了让孩子获得优势,并在动荡的经济环境中为孩子提供一臂之力。在其父母过世后,千禧一代有望获得更多的意外之财和慷慨赠与,正如经济学家诺亚·史密斯在推文中写道,千禧一代在其50岁左右时会发现自己的人生轨迹发生变化,而且其父母会留给其宝贵却又令人焦虑的房地产。尽管如此,即便千禧一代在晚些时候能够迎头赶上,但这种方式“依然不是一个社会进行财富分配的好方法。”

即便最富有的千禧一代也都在租房住,而且买房人与租房人之间还掀起了一场不同的战争,已购房的千禧一代在对抗其亦敌亦友的婴儿潮一代时会显得更从容一些。沃尔夫补充说:“那些租房住的千禧一代当前正面临着真正的挑战,因为房价升高了,房贷利率高居不下,而且整体房产供应低迷。”很大一部分婴儿潮人士都是房屋所有者。沃尔夫指出,43%的有房婴儿潮一代没有抵押贷款。她指出,这个群体的另一个优势在于,他们在股市中有更多的投资。这两个优势加起来“让很多婴儿潮一代在财富总量方面处于健康水平。”

另一方面,很多千禧一代直接放弃购房,将美国梦远远抛开,因为他们觉得这种梦仅适合于少数人,而且都是很久远的事情了。哈里斯研究中心(Harris)的调查显示,大多数(56%)的千禧一代认为,其购买自有房屋的梦想已经破灭。令人感到些许乐观的是,阿默普莱斯金融公司(Ameriprise Financial)发现约60%的千禧一代对于自身经济状况感到十分乐观,出现这一情况的原因在于,78%的千禧一代依赖于其父母提供的一些帮助。对于千禧一代来说,大环境也有所好转,沃尔夫解释说,那些还在租房的人“不应该认为市场在近期会向买方倾斜”,因为供应依然有限,而且还存在对于价格不怎么敏感的买家。经济的衰退可能会扭转这一局面,但沃尔夫指出,经济衰退也不能改变的事实在于,为大量买方修建平价房屋将变得越发困难。她还表示,尽管房地产市场可能会降温,但“在可预见的未来,购买入门级房产对于很多看房者来说依然是一个挑战。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Perennially offered the short end of the stick, the pandemic turned out to be a double-edged sword for millennials. While some moved home, many were able to save up and come out of COVID-19 twice as wealthy as they were before it. This coincided with the generation reaching peak homebuying age, and the second year of the pandemic saw the beginning of a baby boom, as nearly half of the generation caught the fever of the age-old American ambition to move to the suburbs. But millennials might as well cue the sad Charlie Brown music and slink away when they look at the current state of the housing market. Massive student loans, the Great Recession, and a cost of living that outpaces their salaries, all keep this generation unable to build wealth like their parents and grandparents. And to top it off, one of the country’s leading housing-focused economists, herself a millennial, has crunched the numbers and found the ugly truth: That millennials’ parents, the boomers who seemed to get all the economic breaks of the last 50 years, are stealing all the starter homes and making them retirement homes instead.

Covering housing for at least 10 years, Ali Wolf has steadily ascended to the role of chief economist for Zonda, a distributor of housing market data and consulting. A millennial herself, Wolf has personal experience of what her generation is up against, as she lives in southern California, a state that personifies America’s housing shortage and an ensuing generational clash.

As baby boomers downsize and millennials finally enter the housing market, Wolf says, they are in direct competition for similarly priced and sized homes.

“In today’s housing market,” Wolf tells Fortune, “there’s a big overlap between select baby boomers and select millennials.” She used the archetype of the empty nester boomer couple and the millennial couple with no or young children. Essentially, the former group is looking for their retirement home and the latter is looking for their starter home, and something has to give. “The key difference here is that the baby boomer will likely be able to tap home equity by selling their existing home, allowing them to perhaps make a more compelling offer on the home compared to the millennials, especially if the latter group are still renting.”

There’s two things happening with baby boomers, as Wolf explains: Data from AARP shows that most boomers are looking to stay where they are right now, but the National Association of Realtors shows that boomers are the top buyers and sellers right now. And many more boomers are looking to retire soon. The soaring cost of childcare has boomers looking to help out their millennial kids by selling up and moving close to provide extra help rearing the pandemic babies, but that’s ironically boxing their kids (and their kids’ friends) out of the market. Wolf said Zonda has started tracking this dynamic with what she calls the Baby Chaser Index, which tracks the cities where boomers follow their children most dutifully (ending up fueling greater migration patterns in formerly affordable cities like Charlotte, North Carolina). According to Wolf, Zonda data shows that 25% of boomers are relocating to get closer to their grandchildren. Most recently, Zonda found that these baby chasers are often relocating to the Southeast, a market that has become a hotspot due to its relative affordability for home buyers of all ages.

It all leads to an awkward hello to mom when she outbids you at the open house. Boomers have the advantage, while they’re looking for the same smaller house as someone pining for a starter house, and they’re often able to leverage an all-cash bid, explains Wolf.

By nature of being younger and simply unlucky when it comes to building wealth, millennials have the disadvantage when it comes to getting the house, as boomers are often coming to the market “equity rich” and less price/rate sensitive. Wolf tells Fortune that one important point just shouldn’t be overlooked: Some boomers and millennials are looking for the same home and boomers are often positioned to make more competitive offers. So “younger folks looking to get on the homeownership ladder” face a big challenge in this “overlap with their parents’ generation.

At a certain point, the millennials versus boomer battle is more the war between millennials getting help from boomers and boomers themselves. Dealt an arguably easier hand than their children, many parents report making a financial sacrifice to give their children a leg up and help them in the current volatile economic scene. Millennials might be able to expect larger windfalls and generosity when their parents pass, as economist Noah Smith tweets that the generational will see their trajectory change when they hit their 50s and their parents leave them that golden and much fraught over real estate. That being said, even if millennials are to catch up later in life, it “ is also not a great way of structuring wealth distribution in a society.”

Even the richest of millennials are renting, and those who are buying versus renting wage a different battle, as millennials who own their homes have it a bit easier when it comes to going up against their boomer frenemies.“The millennials that are renting are facing the true challenge today because prices are high, mortgage rates are high, and overall housing supply is low,” Wolf adds. A larger portion of baby boomers are homeowners, as Wolf points out that 43% of the cohort owns their house without a mortgage. The group also has an advantage given their higher investments in the stock market, she points out. The two combined “have allowed many baby boomers to be in a healthy place in terms of total wealth.”

On the other side of the coin, many millennials have simply given up on having a home, eschewing the American Dream as something that only existed for a few a long time ago. A Harris poll finds that most (56%) in the generation believe their dream of owning a house to be dead. Recently a bit less pessimistic, Ameriprise Financial finds that about six out of 10 millennials are feeling good about finances, which likely is because 78% are relying on some help from their families in getting by. Things aren’t looking up for millennials though, as Wolf explains that those who are renting “shouldn’t expect the market to get much easier in the near-term” as supply is still limited and there are buyers who are less sensitive to gouged prices. A recession could turn it around, but Wolf notes that doesn’t change the fact that building affordable housing with a vast buyer pool is increasingly difficult. While the housing market might cool, “buying an entry-level home will likely remain a challenge for home shoppers for the foreseeable future,” she adds.

热读文章
热门视频
扫描二维码下载财富APP