美国房地产市场复苏，但美联储有麻烦了
去年，美联储为对抗通胀，将抵押贷款利率从3%提高至7%以上，美国房市进入了急剧收缩的状态。不过目前显而易见的是，美国房市的自由落体状态已经成为过去。
周三，我们得知，季节性调整后的抵押贷款购买申请指数上周上升3.1%至190。一方面，该指数仍远低于2022年同期的282。另一方面，该指数在1月第一周触底159后，最近几周明显企稳。
尽管房地产经纪人和建筑商都在为这一消息欢呼，但美联储对住房数据转好却反应冷淡。
[美国]明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利周二在接受美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）采访时表示: “《华尔街日报》昨天有一篇报道说，由于抵押贷款利率回落，美国住房市场开始恢复活力。”他接着说，放松金融环境（包括抵押贷款利率上周降至6.09%）对美联储来说不是好消息:“你说得对，（放松金融环境）确实使我们更难实现经济平衡。在其他条件相同的情况下，这意味着我们必须借助其他工具，采取更多措施。”
为什么宽松的金融环境和不断下降的抵押贷款利率会给美联储带来麻烦?
在2022年下半年，利率飙升推动美国房价从2022年的峰值下跌2.5%（见下图），同时也间接抑制了创纪录的租金飙升。不过，如果美国楼市回暖，房价和租金上涨可能会抹杀美联储在楼市方面取得的进展。如果美联储不能抑制住房等对利率敏感的领域的通胀，那么它将不得不在加息以外的领域与通胀作斗争。
卡什卡利表示，如果继续放松金融环境，美联储将寻求使用“其他工具”。美国全国广播公司财经频道主持人随后要求卡什卡利澄清他所说的“其他工具”是什么意思。
卡什卡利说:“我们需要在联邦基金利率方面采取更多措施，而且我们还可以利用资产负债表。”
当然，如果联邦基金利率的上升高于预期，理论上讲，金融市场会给抵押贷款利率等长期利率施加额外的上行压力。然而，对于房地产经纪人和经纪人来说，更重要的可能是后一种建议使用的工具:“资产负债表”。
在疫情期间，美联储的量化宽松计划（即购买债券）使央行持有的国债攀升至5.4万亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券攀升至2.6万亿美元。如果美联储抛售其中一些抵押贷款支持证券，理论上讲，这将进一步推高抵押贷款利率。
美联储实际抛售抵押贷款支持证券的可能性有多大？现在看来，这种情况不太可能发生。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三在华盛顿经济俱乐部发表讲话时表示，目前抛售抵押贷款支持证券还未提上议事日程。
“我们已经说过，我们将考虑抛售抵押贷款支持证券。但是我要告诉大家，这不是我们积极推动的事情，也不在我们认真考虑的事情之列。”鲍威尔说。(财富中文网)
译者：中慧言-王芳
去年，美联储为对抗通胀，将抵押贷款利率从3%提高至7%以上，美国房市进入了急剧收缩的状态。不过目前显而易见的是，美国房市的自由落体状态已经成为过去。
周三，我们得知，季节性调整后的抵押贷款购买申请指数上周上升3.1%至190。一方面，该指数仍远低于2022年同期的282。另一方面，该指数在1月第一周触底159后，最近几周明显企稳。
尽管房地产经纪人和建筑商都在为这一消息欢呼，但美联储对住房数据转好却反应冷淡。
[美国]明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利周二在接受美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）采访时表示: “《华尔街日报》昨天有一篇报道说，由于抵押贷款利率回落，美国住房市场开始恢复活力。”他接着说，放松金融环境（包括抵押贷款利率上周降至6.09%）对美联储来说不是好消息:“你说得对，（放松金融环境）确实使我们更难实现经济平衡。在其他条件相同的情况下，这意味着我们必须借助其他工具，采取更多措施。”
为什么宽松的金融环境和不断下降的抵押贷款利率会给美联储带来麻烦?
在2022年下半年，利率飙升推动美国房价从2022年的峰值下跌2.5%（见下图），同时也间接抑制了创纪录的租金飙升。不过，如果美国楼市回暖，房价和租金上涨可能会抹杀美联储在楼市方面取得的进展。如果美联储不能抑制住房等对利率敏感的领域的通胀，那么它将不得不在加息以外的领域与通胀作斗争。
卡什卡利表示，如果继续放松金融环境，美联储将寻求使用“其他工具”。美国全国广播公司财经频道主持人随后要求卡什卡利澄清他所说的“其他工具”是什么意思。
卡什卡利说:“我们需要在联邦基金利率方面采取更多措施，而且我们还可以利用资产负债表。”
当然，如果联邦基金利率的上升高于预期，理论上讲，金融市场会给抵押贷款利率等长期利率施加额外的上行压力。然而，对于房地产经纪人和经纪人来说，更重要的可能是后一种建议使用的工具:“资产负债表”。
在疫情期间，美联储的量化宽松计划（即购买债券）使央行持有的国债攀升至5.4万亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券攀升至2.6万亿美元。如果美联储抛售其中一些抵押贷款支持证券，理论上讲，这将进一步推高抵押贷款利率。
美联储实际抛售抵押贷款支持证券的可能性有多大？现在看来，这种情况不太可能发生。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三在华盛顿经济俱乐部发表讲话时表示，目前抛售抵押贷款支持证券还未提上议事日程。
“我们已经说过，我们将考虑抛售抵押贷款支持证券。但是我要告诉大家，这不是我们积极推动的事情，也不在我们认真考虑的事情之列。”鲍威尔说。(财富中文网)
译者：中慧言-王芳
It’s clear that the free fall in U.S. home sales—which went into a sharp contraction after the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight saw mortgage rates spike from 3% to over 7% in 2022—is behind us.
On Wednesday, we learned that the seasonally adjusted Mortgage Purchase Application Index ticked up 3.1% last week to 190. On one hand, the index remains far below the 282 reading it had during the same week in 2022. On the other hand, the index has clearly stabilized in recent weeks after bottoming at a 159 reading during the first week of January.
While realtors and builders alike are cheering this news, improved housing data is getting a lukewarm reception from the Fed.
“The Wall Street Journal yesterday had a report that the [U.S.] housing market is starting to show signs of life again because mortgage rates have come back down,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday on CNBC. He went on to say that loosening financial conditions (including mortgage rates which fell to 6.09% last week) isn’t great news for the Fed. “You’re right it [loosening financial conditions] does make our jobs harder to bring the economy into balance. All things being equal, that means we’d have to do more with our other tools.”
Why could loosening financial conditions and falling mortgage rates spell trouble for the Fed?
In the second half of 2022, spiked interest rates helped push U.S. home prices down 2.5% from their 2022 peak (see chart below) while also indirectly taming record rent spikes. However, if the U.S. housing market were to heat back up, it could see rising home prices and rents erase progress that the Fed has made on the housing front. And if the Fed can’t tame inflation in a rate sensitive sector like housing, it’d surely struggle with inflation further outside its rate hiking purview.
If financial conditions were to continue to loosen, Kashkari said the Fed would look to use "other tools." The CNBC anchor then asked Kashkari to clarify what he meant by "other tools."
"It'd cause me to say we'd need to do more with the federal funds rate and we also have the balance sheet as well," Kashkari said.
Of course, if the federal funds rate were to rise higher than expected, financial markets would in theory put additional upward pressure on long-term rates like mortgage rates. However, the bigger deal for real estate agents and brokers might be the latter suggestion: The "balance sheet."
See, the Fed's quantitative easing program (i.e. buying bonds) during the pandemic saw the central bank's holdings of Treasury securities climb to $5.4 trillion and mortgage-backed securities climb to $2.6 trillion. If the Fed were to sell-off some of those mortgage-backed securities, in theory, it'd push mortgage rates even higher.
How likely is the Fed to actually sell-off mortgage-backed securities? Right now, it doesn't look like it's in the cards.
While speaking to The Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said offloading mortgage-backed securities isn't currently being discussed.
"We have said that we would consider sales of mortgage-backed securities. But I will tell you that is not something on the list of active things, things actively being considered," Powell said.
