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2022年投资市场哀鸿遍野,但我们可以从中得到五点启示

2022年投资市场哀鸿遍野,但我们可以从中得到五点启示

Ben Carlson 2023-01-24
2022年对投资者而言是艰难的一年,他们无处可藏。

图片来源:ILLUSTRATION BY JAMIE CULLEN

2022年是现代经济史上金融市场表现最糟糕的年份之一。股市进入熊市。当股市下跌时通常可以作为避风港的债券,也遭遇重创。

过去一年对投资者而言是艰难的一年,因为他们无处可藏。

让我们回顾一下我们在2022年得到的几点重要启示:

在短期内,任何事情都可能发生

美国股票和债券很少会在同一年同时下跌。事实上,从1928年到2022年,这种情况只发生过三次。

通常情况下,当股市下跌时,投资者会纷纷选择安全的固定收益产品,因此债券能够为人们的投资组合提供保障。

但2022年,股市下跌的部分原因是债市的影响。为了帮助应对四十年来最高的通货膨胀,美联储(Federal Reserve)激进加息。

由于债券的收益率起点较低,因此损失规模是现代金融市场史上前所未见的。

2022年,美股市场下跌超过18%,而美国债券市场整体下跌13%。十年期国债下跌超过15%,而长期政府债券下跌超过30%。

所以,这不只是数十年来,美国股票和债券首次在同一年下跌,也是股票和债券史上首次在同一年的下跌幅度达到两位数。这充分证明,2022年是传统股票和债券投资组合表现最糟糕的年份之一。

去年在提醒我们,在投资市场上,短期内可能发生任何事情,甚至是以前从未发生过的事情。

未来难以预测

2022年是美国房地产市场异常火爆的一年。截至2021年年底,凯斯-席勒全国房价指数(Case-Shiller National Home Price Index)同比上涨近20%。

房价上涨最大的原因之一是新冠疫情造成的超低利率环境。2022年年初,30年期固定利率贷款的抵押贷款利率依旧只有3.1%。但这种情况并未持续太久。

2022年,抵押贷款利率提高了超过一倍,全国平均抵押贷款利率一度超过7.1%,在年底约为6.4%。

有人预测去年房地产市场会出现急需的喘息之机,但绝对没有人预测到抵押贷款利率会在短期内大幅度上涨。

由于抵押贷款利率的大幅上浮,在美国大部分地区,房价终于开始降温。

去年提醒我们,价格预测通常会受到经济和市场变量的影响,而大多数人根本无法提前预测这些变量。

没有永远上涨的股票

科技股是21世纪10年代的大赢家。苹果(Apple)、亚马逊(Amazon)、微软(Microsoft)、Facebook和谷歌(Google)等公司变得如此庞大,并且占据了行业主宰地位,因此它们认为对自己的股票只有买入这一种选择。

俗话说,在华尔街成功向来容易失去,因为预期大幅升高,导致要继续取得超出投资者对未来预期的成绩几乎是不可能的。

2022年,科技股最终经历了在如此高的预期之下会发生的情况。2022年,一些规模最大的科技股从史上最高点下跌,经历了从峰值到谷底的过程。

其中有些公司是全球规模最大和最优秀的公司,但它们的股价在大涨之后开始下跌。

去年提醒我们,即便是最优秀的公司,如果以错误的价格买入其股票,也可能损失惨重。

巨大收益通常伴随着巨额损失

在新冠疫情流行时期,许多资产和证券如同火箭飞船一般,给投资者带来了巨大收益。在2020年和2021年年初,投资者进行了大量投机性投资。

2021年年末和2022年,许多价值暴涨的资产大幅贬值:

在繁荣时期表现最佳的资产,在萧条时期通常是表现最差的资产,过去几年也不例外。

去年提醒我们,在金融市场,你不可能只获得巨额回报,却从不会蒙受巨额损失。

在投资市场,损失不可避免

2022年是股票市场有史以来表现最糟糕的年份之一,但如果将这些损失放到之前的收益背景下来看待,它们就显得更加合理。

去年,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)下跌18%,但在此之前的三年,该指数分别上涨了31%、18%和28%。即使在2022年经历了大幅下跌,但自2019年以来,标准普尔500指数整体依旧上涨了超过60%。这相当于每年13%的收益率,非常可观。

去年提醒我们,目前的经济萧条不容乐观,但如果你可以拥有全局视野和长期心态,最终你的收益就将高于损失。(财富中文网)

作者的个人投资组合或里萨兹财富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)管理的投资组合中可能目前持有、一直持有或未来可能持有本文提及的个别证券。

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

2022年是现代经济史上金融市场表现最糟糕的年份之一。股市进入熊市。当股市下跌时通常可以作为避风港的债券,也遭遇重创。

过去一年对投资者而言是艰难的一年,因为他们无处可藏。

让我们回顾一下我们在2022年得到的几点重要启示:

在短期内,任何事情都可能发生

美国股票和债券很少会在同一年同时下跌。事实上,从1928年到2022年,这种情况只发生过三次。

通常情况下,当股市下跌时,投资者会纷纷选择安全的固定收益产品,因此债券能够为人们的投资组合提供保障。

但2022年,股市下跌的部分原因是债市的影响。为了帮助应对四十年来最高的通货膨胀,美联储(Federal Reserve)激进加息。

由于债券的收益率起点较低,因此损失规模是现代金融市场史上前所未见的。

2022年,美股市场下跌超过18%,而美国债券市场整体下跌13%。十年期国债下跌超过15%,而长期政府债券下跌超过30%。

所以,这不只是数十年来,美国股票和债券首次在同一年下跌,也是股票和债券史上首次在同一年的下跌幅度达到两位数。这充分证明,2022年是传统股票和债券投资组合表现最糟糕的年份之一。

去年在提醒我们,在投资市场上,短期内可能发生任何事情,甚至是以前从未发生过的事情。

未来难以预测

2022年是美国房地产市场异常火爆的一年。截至2021年年底,凯斯-席勒全国房价指数(Case-Shiller National Home Price Index)同比上涨近20%。

房价上涨最大的原因之一是新冠疫情造成的超低利率环境。2022年年初,30年期固定利率贷款的抵押贷款利率依旧只有3.1%。但这种情况并未持续太久。

2022年,抵押贷款利率提高了超过一倍,全国平均抵押贷款利率一度超过7.1%,在年底约为6.4%。

有人预测去年房地产市场会出现急需的喘息之机,但绝对没有人预测到抵押贷款利率会在短期内大幅度上涨。

由于抵押贷款利率的大幅上浮,在美国大部分地区,房价终于开始降温。

去年提醒我们,价格预测通常会受到经济和市场变量的影响,而大多数人根本无法提前预测这些变量。

没有永远上涨的股票

科技股是21世纪10年代的大赢家。苹果(Apple)、亚马逊(Amazon)、微软(Microsoft)、Facebook和谷歌(Google)等公司变得如此庞大,并且占据了行业主宰地位,因此它们认为对自己的股票只有买入这一种选择。

俗话说,在华尔街成功向来容易失去,因为预期大幅升高,导致要继续取得超出投资者对未来预期的成绩几乎是不可能的。

2022年,科技股最终经历了在如此高的预期之下会发生的情况。2022年,一些规模最大的科技股从史上最高点下跌,经历了从峰值到谷底的过程。

其中有些公司是全球规模最大和最优秀的公司,但它们的股价在大涨之后开始下跌。

去年提醒我们,即便是最优秀的公司,如果以错误的价格买入其股票,也可能损失惨重。

巨大收益通常伴随着巨额损失

在新冠疫情流行时期,许多资产和证券如同火箭飞船一般,给投资者带来了巨大收益。在2020年和2021年年初,投资者进行了大量投机性投资。

2021年年末和2022年,许多价值暴涨的资产大幅贬值:

在繁荣时期表现最佳的资产,在萧条时期通常是表现最差的资产,过去几年也不例外。

去年提醒我们,在金融市场,你不可能只获得巨额回报,却从不会蒙受巨额损失。

在投资市场,损失不可避免

2022年是股票市场有史以来表现最糟糕的年份之一,但如果将这些损失放到之前的收益背景下来看待,它们就显得更加合理。

去年,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)下跌18%,但在此之前的三年,该指数分别上涨了31%、18%和28%。即使在2022年经历了大幅下跌,但自2019年以来,标准普尔500指数整体依旧上涨了超过60%。这相当于每年13%的收益率,非常可观。

去年提醒我们,目前的经济萧条不容乐观,但如果你可以拥有全局视野和长期心态,最终你的收益就将高于损失。(财富中文网)

作者的个人投资组合或里萨兹财富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)管理的投资组合中可能目前持有、一直持有或未来可能持有本文提及的个别证券。

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

2022 was one of the worst for financial markets in modern economic history. Stocks went into a bear market. Bonds, typically a bastion in a storm for equities, also got hit hard.

It was not an easy year for investors, because there was nowhere to hide.

Let’s look at some of the biggest lessons from the year that was in 2022:

Anything can happen in the short run

It’s rare for U.S. stocks and bonds to be down in the same year at the same time. In fact, it’s only happened three times since 1928 before 2022:

Typically, when the stock market falls, bonds provide the ballast to your portfolio as investors rush into the safety of fixed income.

In 2022, however, the decline in stocks happened in part because of what’s been going on in the bond market. The Fed aggressively raised interest rates to help fight the highest inflation in four decades.

Since bonds were starting from such a low yield, the losses have been larger than anything investors have seen in modern financial market history.

The U.S. stock market fell a little more than 18% in 2022, while the aggregate U.S. bond market was down 13%. Ten-year Treasuries were down more than 15%, while long-term government bonds crashed more than 30%.

So this was not only the first time in decades that both stocks and bonds were down in the same year, but it’s the first time in history that stocks and bonds were each down double-digits in the same year. There is a good case to be made that 2022 was one of the worst years performance-wise for traditional stock and bond portfolios ever.

Last year is a good reminder that anything can happen in the short term when it comes to the markets, even stuff that’s never happened before.

Predicting the future is hard

The U.S. housing market came into 2022 scorching hot. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was up nearly 20% year over year by the end of 2021.

One of the biggest reasons for the housing price boom was the ultralow interest rate environment that came about because of the pandemic. Coming into the year, mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed-rate loan were still just 3.1%. That didn’t last long.

Mortgage rates more than doubled in 2022, reaching upwards of 7.1% for the national average before ending the year at around 6.4%.

There were people predicting the housing market would take a much-needed breather last year, but absolutely no one was forecasting mortgage rates would get so high in such a short period of time.

Housing prices are finally starting to roll over in large part because of this massive move higher in mortgage rates.

Last year is a good reminder that price forecasts are often impacted by economic and market variables most people cannot possibly predict in advance.

Nothing works forever

Technology stocks were the big winners of the 2010s. Companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and Google became so big and dominant that they were beginning to feel like one-decision stocks—and that decision was to buy them.

There’s an old saying that nothing fails quite like success on Wall Street because expectations soar so high that it becomes nearly impossible to continue outperforming what investors think will happen in the future.

Technology stocks finally experienced what it was like to deal with such lofty expectations in 2022. These were the peak-to-trough drawdowns from all-time highs for some of the biggest tech stocks in 2022:

These are some of the biggest and best companies on the planet, but stock prices can only go so high before gravity kicks in.

Last year is a good reminder that even the best companies can lead to big losses at the wrong price.

Big gains are typically accompanied by big losses

The pandemic boom times saw a number of assets and securities take off like a rocket ship with massive gains. Investors bid up a number of speculative investments in 2020 and early 2021.

Many of those rocket ships came back to earth in late 2021 and 2022:

The best performers of the boom times are often the worst performers of the bust times, and the past few years were no different.

Last year is a good reminder that you cannot earn outsize returns in the financial markets without the potential for outsize losses.

Losses in the markets are inevitable

2022 was one of the worst on record in the stock market, but those losses make a lot more sense when you view them in the context of the gains that preceded them.

In the three years before last year’s 18% loss in the S&P 500, the index was up 31%, 18%, and 28%. Even with large losses in 2022, the S&P 500 is still up well over 60% in total since 2019. That’s good enough for 13% returns per year.

Last year is a reminder that downturns are never fun to deal with in the moment, but if you are able to zoom out and keep a long-term mindset, eventually the gains outweigh the losses.

Certain securities mentioned in the article may be currently held, have been held, or may be held in the future in the author’s personal portfolio or a portfolio managed by Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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