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接下来三个月美股堪忧,明年也没指望

接下来三个月美股堪忧,明年也没指望

Will Daniel 2022-11-28
专家认为,随着美国持续加息,标准普尔500指数将在接下来的三个月里跌至3,600点,跌幅约为10%。

纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)里的一名交易员。图片来源:MICHAEL NAGLE/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

尽管今年华尔街对经济给出了很多衰退预期,不过高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的分析师们仍然认为,美国经济的“软着陆”是有可能实现的。

但这并不意味着股市投资者们可以开始庆祝了。

由高盛集团的美国首席证券策略师大卫·科斯汀领导的证券研究团队在上周指出,随着美国持续加息,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)将在接下来的三个月里跌至3,600点,跌幅约为10%。

科斯汀和他的团队还表示,在本轮下跌后,到2023年年底,预计标准普尔500指数有望恢复到4,000点,也就是大约与现今的水平相同。

他们的预测是基于美联储(Federal Reserve)的抗通胀之战将于明年5月结束的预期,只要美联储不再加息,即便全球经济增长陷入停滞,美国证券价格也依然会从低位回升。

为对抗近40年来最严重的恶性通胀,美联储今年已经六次加息了。从今年10月开始,连续加息的效果初步显现,美国的CPI同比增长率从6月最高的9.1%下降至7.7%。

科斯汀在11月21日的一份研究报告中指出:“我们的经济学家预计,到2023年年初,通胀的减速将愈发明显,美联储将降低加息幅度,并最终停止紧缩政策。”

但与此同时,由于企业界普遍存在营收增长乏力和较大的盈利压力,科斯汀团队也表示,他们预计2023年“股市带来的痛苦会减少,但仍然不会有什么收益”。

科斯汀团队还警告道,虽然他们预计明年美股市场表现趋平,但股市仍然有一个重要的风险因素——那就是经济衰退。

他们在报告中指出:“我们的趋平假设是有条件的,但是如果出现经济衰退,企业收益就会大幅下降,投资者应该对此保持谨慎。”

“明显的风险”

据全美商业经济协会(National Association for Business Economics)的调查显示,98%的受访企业首席执行官预计美国经济将在18个月内出现衰退。75%的受访者认为美国经济已经处于衰退之中——就连埃隆·马斯克这样的亿万富翁也认同这一点。

不过高盛集团仍然认为,美国经济后劲很强,能够抵御住这次风暴。尽管该公司的分析师也承认,经济衰退“仍然是一个明显的风险。”

科斯汀团队认为,如果美国真的陷入了经济衰退,那么明年企业收益就将下降11%左右。届时标准普尔500指数最低有可能跌至3,150点(跌幅达22%)。

那么,市场会在什么时候触底呢?科斯汀团队并未对此做出预测。不过他们认为,当经济增长数据最差时,股市通常就会触底。

比如他们指出,在自二战以来的12次经济衰退中,标准普尔500指数“经常”会在ISM制造业指数(ISM Manufacturing Index,一个衡量制造业经济活动的指标)跌至周期性低点的几个月内触底。

最后,科斯汀团队认为,由于企业回购股票数量减少,加之散户建仓减少,明年市场对股票的兴趣将会减弱,而这也会打击股价。

他们在报告中称:“十多年来,股票回购一直是股票需求最大和最持续的来源,但明年这种需求将会减弱。”他们预计,明年企业的回购将同比下降10%。

高盛集团还预计,明年将成为自2018年以来散户投资者首个净卖出股票的年度,股市的流出资金预计将达到1,000亿美元。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

尽管今年华尔街对经济给出了很多衰退预期,不过高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的分析师们仍然认为,美国经济的“软着陆”是有可能实现的。

但这并不意味着股市投资者们可以开始庆祝了。

由高盛集团的美国首席证券策略师大卫·科斯汀领导的证券研究团队在上周指出,随着美国持续加息,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)将在接下来的三个月里跌至3,600点,跌幅约为10%。

科斯汀和他的团队还表示,在本轮下跌后,到2023年年底,预计标准普尔500指数有望恢复到4,000点,也就是大约与现今的水平相同。

他们的预测是基于美联储(Federal Reserve)的抗通胀之战将于明年5月结束的预期,只要美联储不再加息,即便全球经济增长陷入停滞,美国证券价格也依然会从低位回升。

为对抗近40年来最严重的恶性通胀,美联储今年已经六次加息了。从今年10月开始,连续加息的效果初步显现,美国的CPI同比增长率从6月最高的9.1%下降至7.7%。

科斯汀在11月21日的一份研究报告中指出:“我们的经济学家预计,到2023年年初,通胀的减速将愈发明显,美联储将降低加息幅度,并最终停止紧缩政策。”

但与此同时,由于企业界普遍存在营收增长乏力和较大的盈利压力,科斯汀团队也表示,他们预计2023年“股市带来的痛苦会减少,但仍然不会有什么收益”。

科斯汀团队还警告道,虽然他们预计明年美股市场表现趋平,但股市仍然有一个重要的风险因素——那就是经济衰退。

他们在报告中指出:“我们的趋平假设是有条件的,但是如果出现经济衰退,企业收益就会大幅下降,投资者应该对此保持谨慎。”

“明显的风险”

据全美商业经济协会(National Association for Business Economics)的调查显示,98%的受访企业首席执行官预计美国经济将在18个月内出现衰退。75%的受访者认为美国经济已经处于衰退之中——就连埃隆·马斯克这样的亿万富翁也认同这一点。

不过高盛集团仍然认为,美国经济后劲很强,能够抵御住这次风暴。尽管该公司的分析师也承认,经济衰退“仍然是一个明显的风险。”

科斯汀团队认为,如果美国真的陷入了经济衰退,那么明年企业收益就将下降11%左右。届时标准普尔500指数最低有可能跌至3,150点(跌幅达22%)。

那么,市场会在什么时候触底呢?科斯汀团队并未对此做出预测。不过他们认为,当经济增长数据最差时,股市通常就会触底。

比如他们指出,在自二战以来的12次经济衰退中,标准普尔500指数“经常”会在ISM制造业指数(ISM Manufacturing Index,一个衡量制造业经济活动的指标)跌至周期性低点的几个月内触底。

最后,科斯汀团队认为,由于企业回购股票数量减少,加之散户建仓减少,明年市场对股票的兴趣将会减弱,而这也会打击股价。

他们在报告中称:“十多年来,股票回购一直是股票需求最大和最持续的来源,但明年这种需求将会减弱。”他们预计,明年企业的回购将同比下降10%。

高盛集团还预计,明年将成为自2018年以来散户投资者首个净卖出股票的年度,股市的流出资金预计将达到1,000亿美元。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

Despite a parade of recession predictions from Wall Street this year, Goldman Sachs’ strategists still believe a “soft landing” is likely.

But that doesn’t mean stock market investors should celebrate.

The 153-year-old investment bank’s equity research team, led by chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, said last week that they believe the S&P 500 will drop roughly 10% to 3600 over the next three months as interest rates rise.

After that, Kostin and his team made the case that the blue-chip index will finish 2023 at 4000—roughly the same level it closed at today.

Their argument is based on the idea that the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle will end by May of next year, which will help boost equity prices from their lows even as global economic growth stalls.

The Fed has raised rates six times this year to fight inflation not seen since the early 1980s. In October, the results of its work started to show when year-over-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), fell to 7.7%, a significant drop from its 9.1% June peak.

“Our economists expect by early 2023 it will become clear that inflation is decelerating and the Fed will reduce the magnitude of hikes and eventually cease tightening,” Kostin wrote in a November 21 research note.

But at the same time, with a lack of corporate earnings growth on the horizon and company profit margins facing pressure, Kostin and his team said they “expect less pain but also no gain” for stocks in 2023.

And they warned there is one key risk to their flat-year for stocks thesis—a recession.

“[A] flat return under our base case and [a] large downside in a recession means investors should remain cautious,” they wrote.

A “distinct risk”

Here are the facts. Some 98% of CEOs expect a recession within 18 months and 72% of economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession within the next year. Meanwhile, 75% of voters believe we’re already in a recession—and billionaires like Elon Musk agree.

Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the storm, even if its analysts admit a serious economic downturn “remains a distinct risk.”

If a recession does hit, Kostin and his team argue that corporate earnings would fall 11% next year. For the S&P 500, that would mean a drop to 3150 (-22%) at the low point of the recession.

When is that low point? Kostin and his team didn’t make that forecast but argued that when economic growth data is at its worst, markets typically hit bottom.

They noted, for instance, that in the 12 recessions since World War II, the S&P 500 has “often” bottomed within a few months of the cycle-low of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is a gauge of economic activity in the manufacturing sector.

Finally, Kostin and his team noted that there will be less appetite for stocks next year due to a reduced number of corporate buybacks, as well as less stock buying among retail investors, which could hurt share prices.

“Buybacks have been the largest and most consistent source of demand for shares for more than 10 years but demand will soften in 2023,” they wrote, predicting a 10% year-over-year decline in corporate buybacks.

Goldman also expects households to be net sellers of stocks for the first time since 2018 next year, with estimated outflows of $100 billion.

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