得到科技和金融巨头加持，这位共和党州长准备挑战特朗普
7月下旬的一天下午，美国犹他州帕克城瑞吉酒店（St. Regis hotel）充满享乐气息的餐厅里，卡森·乔根森正在与一群捐赠者和商界领袖翘首等待贵宾到来。
近几年冉冉升起的政治明星，美国佛罗里达州的州长、共和党人罗恩·德桑蒂斯准时出现，高效率拍完照片，随后在酒店的“雾凇”餐厅里伴着沙拉鸡肉午餐向大家致辞，众人身后是雄伟的落基山脉（Rocky Mountains）。这是今年7月下旬该组织在犹他州为德桑蒂斯举办的第二场筹款活动，目标是2022年连任州长。犹他州共和党主席乔根森回忆说，在场各位是一些“轻装简从”的“上流社会捐赠者”，因为据他估计，“这场筹款活动相当昂贵”（有报道称午餐门票一张5,000美元）。乔根森回忆道，德桑蒂斯讲话约半小时，谈到了一些诸如对迪士尼（Disney）等所谓“觉醒”公司发起反击的话题，以及新冠疫情期间他如何开放佛罗里达州的经济。
正因为德桑蒂斯毫不掩饰地采取了亲商业反政治的正确立场，加上美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普好斗树敌，他在佛罗里达州获得了一些日益强大的科技和金融界人士的欣赏，其中一些人甚至押注2024年他能够勇往无前入主白宫。
近年来，德桑蒂斯的身后确实聚集了一批富有的捐赠者：支持者包括对冲基金Citadel创始人及首席执行官肯·格里芬、对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯、包装材料大亨理查德·乌伊莱因、家得宝（Home Depot）联合创始人及前首席执行官伯尼·马库斯等亿万富翁。过去两年，他们都通过政治行动委员会“罗恩·德桑蒂斯的朋友”（Friends of Ron DeSantis）慷慨解囊。最新的大手笔捐赠者是酒店业巨头及航天企业家罗伯特·比奇洛，7月他刚刚捐赠了1,000万美元。根据追踪政治捐款的组织OpenSecrets统计，截至8月19日，德桑蒂斯共筹集到1.72亿美元。乔根森回忆说，尽管犹他州的筹款活动完全是为了支持德桑蒂斯在佛州竞选连任，与会者还是讨论了2024年他竞选总统的潜力。“他很多事情做得很对。”5月Citadel的首席执行官格里芬在米尔肯研究院全球论坛（Milken Institute Global Conference）上谈到德桑蒂斯时表示。他还指出：“毫无疑问，他是当前共和党初选中的领头羊。”格里芬一直在德桑蒂斯捐赠者中排名前列，2021年就捐款了500万美元。
尽管德桑蒂斯尚未宣布竞选总统，但他已经成为宣称要参加2024年大选的特朗普的主要挑战者。最新民调显示，尽管德桑蒂斯在假想竞选中轻松击败了其他人，但特朗普领先德桑蒂斯的优势仍然相当大（8月19日至21日之间最新的Politico/Morning民调显示，特朗普领先排名第二位的德桑蒂斯39个百分点）。
尽管德桑蒂斯本人因为与媒体交锋，新冠疫情期间就变性运动员和厌恶口罩等问题发表观点鲜明且富争议的意见而名声大噪，但谈及2024年他会不会参选以及届时会不会支持他，德桑蒂斯的忠实支持者基本保持沉默。《财富》杂志希望就德桑蒂斯采访十几位富豪（老实说，经常是守口如瓶的亿万富翁），对方要么不回复置评请求，要么拒绝公开评论。《财富》杂志多次请求采访德桑蒂斯，其竞选团队也未回应。
德桑蒂斯还需要一段时间才可以宣布是否参与2024年大选，当前仍然重点关注2022年佛州州长竞选。至于2024年大选，尚无候选人明确表示参选，还有很多未知之数。但很明显的一点是，无论德桑蒂斯参选与否，由于这位佛州州长对争议问题立场偏激，经常有些特朗普风格，已经赢得不少金融和科技大佬强烈支持，而且不仅在佛州，在美国其他地区也一样。通过行动和言辞，他拉拢了同样认为ESG投资是笑话的商业领袖；认为公司不应该关心社会问题的人，德桑蒂斯称这种做法叫反“觉醒”；还有认同经济应该作为头等大事考虑，哪怕做不到也要优先考虑的人。
无论2024年情况如何，德桑蒂斯都对大选之前的对话发挥着不可忽视的影响。
迈阿密商界的支持
尽管德桑蒂斯倾向挑战当权者，其实他也出身经典的常春藤（Ivy League）名校。他童年大部分时间在佛州达尼丁，参加少年棒球联赛，之后去耶鲁大学（Yale University）读书，担任大学棒球队队长。本科毕业后，他继续在哈佛法学院（Harvard Law School）深造。
参政之前，德桑蒂斯曾经在美国海军担任法律顾问，现役完成后担任联邦检察官。早年政治生涯中，他曾经在2013年至2018年期间担任佛州议员。2018年前总统特朗普在选举中支持他担任州长时，他在全美的知名度进一步提高。据报道，特朗普之所以支持德桑蒂斯，是因为看到他在福克斯新闻（Fox News）中的发言。
不过德桑蒂斯真正崛起是在新冠疫情期间。硅谷和华尔街移民寻找零所得税和封锁期间能够保持“开放”的州，纷纷涌入佛罗里达。他迎合了公众对疫情期间规避公共卫生指南和相关规定的期望，疫情爆发初期努力维持企业经营。在商界，他针对疫情颇受争议的立场一直是卖点，一些与《财富》杂志谈话的人都认为他特别亲商业。
最近，德桑蒂斯一些争议性政策受到了人们审视，例如从幼儿园到三年级禁止公立学校教师与学生讨论性取向或性别认同的法案很受争议，反对者称之为“不要说同性恋”（Don’t Say Gay）法案。他在堕胎问题上立场也更加强硬，最近暂停了坦帕地区一名州检察官的职务，罗诉韦德案（Roe v. Wade）被推翻后该检察官承诺不执行本州的新堕胎法。
过去几年一些搬到佛州的商业和创业人士很赞赏德桑蒂斯的执政方式。Bustle Digital Group的创始人及首席执行官布莱恩·戈德堡就是其中之一，该集团旗下包括Bustle、W杂志（W Magazine）和Gawker等媒体网站。他认为，德桑蒂斯优先考虑企业维持经营而不是执行公共卫生任务，所以很有吸引力：“他把经济放在首位。”最近戈德堡告诉《财富》杂志。他认为，经历了过去几年，“不仅是佛罗里达州，全美人民都相当认可德桑蒂斯当州长的表现。”至于2022年以后，“面临的问题不一样。”戈德堡说。（根据德桑蒂斯的政治行动委员会的记录，7月戈德堡为其竞选连任捐赠了1,000美元。）
德桑蒂斯反对“企业觉醒”也获得了戈德堡之类企业家的共鸣：“我认为企业应该远离政治。这是迪士尼惨败的教训：首席执行官不是民选官员。”他告诉《财富》杂志。正如戈德堡所说，近年来，不少首席执行官就各种“社会和政治问题”向员工发送新闻稿和内部通讯。“这是错误的。很糟糕。首席执行官只有一份工作，就是有效地管理公司。”他说。（当被问及在影响员工的问题上采取何种立场时，比如堕胎和推翻罗诉韦德案，戈德堡表示并不针对“某个特定问题”。）
其他人，例如Citadel的首席执行官格里芬，认为德桑蒂斯跟迪士尼斗争方面有些过分。迪士尼批评了德桑蒂斯的《家长教育权利法》（Parental Rights in Education law）或“不要说同性恋”法案后，德桑蒂斯提出解除迪士尼作为特别税区的地位，格里芬认为此举更像是“报复”。
德桑蒂斯针对科技巨头的一些立场，比如攻击所谓的社交媒体审查，并没有影响佛州成为硅谷和华尔街外派人士寻找对商业更友好州时的热门选择。过去几年，从金融巨头Citadel到Elliott Management Corp.等大公司都将总部迁至佛州，还有声名狼藉的投资者凯西·伍德掌管的资产管理公司ARK Investment Management（伍德一直是特朗普的支持者，但拒绝就下届选举候选人的看法向《财富》杂志发表评论）。
然而，德桑蒂斯也将矛头对准了投资管理行业，特别是嘲笑着重考虑环境、社会和治理因素的ESG投资，要求州管理委员会（State Board of Administration）的基金经理在投资时不许考虑ESG。不过对长期风险投资者，也是贝宝帮（PayPal mafia）的基思·拉布瓦来说，此举并未让他反感。拉布瓦如今在迈阿密的风投公司Founders Fund。“ESG投资就是欺诈。”他对《财富》杂志表示，“所以如果有政客想传达我们的观点，我们肯定不会反对。”
佛州州长“营造的氛围是，这是创业的好地方。这是人们感到兴奋的主要原因。”位于迈阿密的早期投资和孵化公司帕累托控股（Pareto Holdings）的执行合伙人爱德华·兰多告诉《财富》杂志（兰多住在佛州，但因为他是法国公民，所以没有资格在美国投票）。兰多称，他的圈子里有人在谈论德桑蒂斯，而且他认为，“如果提出德桑迪斯是一位不错的候选人，争议比起支持特朗普就要小得多”。
坦率的保守派风险投资人拉布瓦和其他人一样，还在努力对冲风险：“显然，所有人都在等着看谁参加竞选。确切得知候选人是谁之前不必做决定。”他说。不过拉布瓦表示，不管是德桑蒂斯，还是佛州参议员马尔科·鲁比奥或里克·斯科特或迈阿密市的市长弗朗西斯·苏亚雷斯，如果其中有人可以成为下一任总统，都会让人“兴奋”，他认为这几位“都会得到佛州科技界和商界领袖的广泛支持。”佛州之外，他特别提出南卡罗来纳州前州长尼基·黑利和阿肯色州参议汤姆·科顿是“顶尖候选人”，但不确定这几人会不会参选。他宣称：“我认识的很多商界领袖都不会支持特朗普。”
拉布瓦最关注的政策包括中美竞争；小企业和教育从疫情复苏；还有“佛州作为低税和监管宽松之地”促进商业和“成功就业”。他认为，这些问题都是德桑蒂斯能够用来区分自己和他人的“问题组合”。但拉布瓦也承认，在他的风投和创业圈里“不谈论这些。太忙了。”
除了佛罗里达本地人，“硅谷和科技界对特朗普评价不高。未来估计不会有变化，迈阿密科技圈想必也不会更热情。”Bustle Digital Group的戈德堡说。他表示，科技和金融业向佛州大量转移的结果是，不少新来者“两党皆考虑”，他相信大多数佛州人和科技界人士会支持德桑蒂斯。戈德堡认为，堕胎权等问题对科技公司很重要，德桑蒂斯可能必须谨慎行事：“成千上万人前往佛州开始新生活，他们可不希望权利减少。”他建议。
但很明显，“管理一个州是一回事，管理一国是另一回事。”共和党长期筹款人和律师埃里克·莱文指出。“很多人都想多了解一些他在经济方面的愿景。”
展望2024年
尽管德桑蒂斯已经收获大量捐赠者的支持，他对2024年是否参选的谣言一直保持沉默，可能原因是今年秋天即将举行的中期选举，毕竟共和党人希望控制参议院和众议院。共和党筹款人兼律师莱文认为：“很难知道他们不表态是不是因为不想反对特朗普，还是像我一样，只想继续关注中期选举。”很多报道显示，共和党成员确实担心11月之前特朗普宣布参加2024年大选，也有报道称特朗普正考虑中期选举之后再宣布。
不管捐赠者是否已经明确表态，从当前思潮、媒体关注和民调来看，德桑蒂斯已经成为与特朗普角逐下届大选的关键候选人。“我认为，（2024年）如果德桑蒂斯的名字出现，部分原因就是大家都听说过他。”莱文告诉《财富》杂志。“这个月已经有点感觉，因为现在是认名字阶段。”他表示。“他跟迪士尼斗争；跟白宫首席医疗顾问安东尼·福奇斗争；还在跟加州州长加文·纽瑟姆斗争。”
但即便面对特朗普在全球声名狼藉，莱文还是认为媒体关注不一定可以削弱其胜算。“总有一些领先者——比如希拉里·克林顿，2008年她怎么了？或者2016年杰布·布什怎么了？当年有谁知名度和收入比杰布·布什高？”他争辩道。“大选刚开始知名度如何，跟最后人们把票投给谁，中间是有区别的。”
当然，这还不是两人竞选：莱文说，关于2024年大选已经听到人们谈论阿肯色州参议员科顿、前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥、南卡罗来纳州前州长黑利、前副总统迈克·彭斯和南卡罗莱纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特等（到目前为止，几人的支持率远低于德桑蒂斯）。
即便特朗普因为1月6日国会暴乱而受到调查，以及美国联邦调查局（FBI）为调查涉嫌不当处理机密文件突击搜查海湖庄园，特朗普在共和党中的支持率仍然不可否认，虽然根据一些民调，认为他应该再次参选的共和党人比例有所下降。
长期以来，特朗普的白宫前传播总监、SkyBridge Capital的创始人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇一直直言批评德桑蒂斯。6月他告诉《财富》杂志，德桑蒂斯没有机会击败特朗普，特朗普最终会“打败德桑蒂斯”。他认为，特朗普“非常善妒”，“会在政治上明嘲暗讽地诋毁德桑蒂斯。”斯卡拉穆奇补充说，虽然特朗普“可能无法获得共和党提名……在失败的过程中，他会毁掉德桑蒂斯。”
犹他州共和党主席乔根森等人打赌，“如果特朗普参选，就仍然会得到基层群众支持。”他认为“政治”人群眼中德桑蒂斯“除了刻薄推文，就是另一个特朗普”，或者正如《纽约客》（New Yorker）最近一篇文章中指出，“智慧版特朗普”。但他认为特朗普“仍然获得民众拥戴。”事实上，特朗普的支持者吹嘘他基层支持广泛。截至7月底，特朗普的“拯救美国政治行动委员会”（Save America PAC，据报道，联邦陪审团正在就1月6日暴乱对其调查）拥有现金约9,900万美元（不过有报道称，这笔钱不能用于2024年大选，而且特朗普等待宣布2024年参选之际，已经面临违反竞选法募集资金的指控）。
“很多人坐山观虎斗，因为有些人想支持特朗普，但又有点怀疑。”乔根森分析道。也“有人想支持德桑蒂斯，但不敢出头，因为这么做很危险。”
今夏犹他州筹款活动上，与会者觥筹交错间，关于下届大选的话题呼之欲出。但约根森清楚记得，即使在德桑蒂斯自己的筹款活动上，谈起2024年会对谁感兴趣时还是有人提到了另一个名字：特朗普。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
7月下旬的一天下午，美国犹他州帕克城瑞吉酒店（St. Regis hotel）充满享乐气息的餐厅里，卡森·乔根森正在与一群捐赠者和商界领袖翘首等待贵宾到来。
近几年冉冉升起的政治明星，美国佛罗里达州的州长、共和党人罗恩·德桑蒂斯准时出现，高效率拍完照片，随后在酒店的“雾凇”餐厅里伴着沙拉鸡肉午餐向大家致辞，众人身后是雄伟的落基山脉（Rocky Mountains）。这是今年7月下旬该组织在犹他州为德桑蒂斯举办的第二场筹款活动，目标是2022年连任州长。犹他州共和党主席乔根森回忆说，在场各位是一些“轻装简从”的“上流社会捐赠者”，因为据他估计，“这场筹款活动相当昂贵”（有报道称午餐门票一张5,000美元）。乔根森回忆道，德桑蒂斯讲话约半小时，谈到了一些诸如对迪士尼（Disney）等所谓“觉醒”公司发起反击的话题，以及新冠疫情期间他如何开放佛罗里达州的经济。
正因为德桑蒂斯毫不掩饰地采取了亲商业反政治的正确立场，加上美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普好斗树敌，他在佛罗里达州获得了一些日益强大的科技和金融界人士的欣赏，其中一些人甚至押注2024年他能够勇往无前入主白宫。
近年来，德桑蒂斯的身后确实聚集了一批富有的捐赠者：支持者包括对冲基金Citadel创始人及首席执行官肯·格里芬、对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯、包装材料大亨理查德·乌伊莱因、家得宝（Home Depot）联合创始人及前首席执行官伯尼·马库斯等亿万富翁。过去两年，他们都通过政治行动委员会“罗恩·德桑蒂斯的朋友”（Friends of Ron DeSantis）慷慨解囊。最新的大手笔捐赠者是酒店业巨头及航天企业家罗伯特·比奇洛，7月他刚刚捐赠了1,000万美元。根据追踪政治捐款的组织OpenSecrets统计，截至8月19日，德桑蒂斯共筹集到1.72亿美元。乔根森回忆说，尽管犹他州的筹款活动完全是为了支持德桑蒂斯在佛州竞选连任，与会者还是讨论了2024年他竞选总统的潜力。“他很多事情做得很对。”5月Citadel的首席执行官格里芬在米尔肯研究院全球论坛（Milken Institute Global Conference）上谈到德桑蒂斯时表示。他还指出：“毫无疑问，他是当前共和党初选中的领头羊。”格里芬一直在德桑蒂斯捐赠者中排名前列，2021年就捐款了500万美元。
尽管德桑蒂斯尚未宣布竞选总统，但他已经成为宣称要参加2024年大选的特朗普的主要挑战者。最新民调显示，尽管德桑蒂斯在假想竞选中轻松击败了其他人，但特朗普领先德桑蒂斯的优势仍然相当大（8月19日至21日之间最新的Politico/Morning民调显示，特朗普领先排名第二位的德桑蒂斯39个百分点）。
尽管德桑蒂斯本人因为与媒体交锋，新冠疫情期间就变性运动员和厌恶口罩等问题发表观点鲜明且富争议的意见而名声大噪，但谈及2024年他会不会参选以及届时会不会支持他，德桑蒂斯的忠实支持者基本保持沉默。《财富》杂志希望就德桑蒂斯采访十几位富豪（老实说，经常是守口如瓶的亿万富翁），对方要么不回复置评请求，要么拒绝公开评论。《财富》杂志多次请求采访德桑蒂斯，其竞选团队也未回应。
德桑蒂斯还需要一段时间才可以宣布是否参与2024年大选，当前仍然重点关注2022年佛州州长竞选。至于2024年大选，尚无候选人明确表示参选，还有很多未知之数。但很明显的一点是，无论德桑蒂斯参选与否，由于这位佛州州长对争议问题立场偏激，经常有些特朗普风格，已经赢得不少金融和科技大佬强烈支持，而且不仅在佛州，在美国其他地区也一样。通过行动和言辞，他拉拢了同样认为ESG投资是笑话的商业领袖；认为公司不应该关心社会问题的人，德桑蒂斯称这种做法叫反“觉醒”；还有认同经济应该作为头等大事考虑，哪怕做不到也要优先考虑的人。
无论2024年情况如何，德桑蒂斯都对大选之前的对话发挥着不可忽视的影响。
迈阿密商界的支持
尽管德桑蒂斯倾向挑战当权者，其实他也出身经典的常春藤（Ivy League）名校。他童年大部分时间在佛州达尼丁，参加少年棒球联赛，之后去耶鲁大学（Yale University）读书，担任大学棒球队队长。本科毕业后，他继续在哈佛法学院（Harvard Law School）深造。
参政之前，德桑蒂斯曾经在美国海军担任法律顾问，现役完成后担任联邦检察官。早年政治生涯中，他曾经在2013年至2018年期间担任佛州议员。2018年前总统特朗普在选举中支持他担任州长时，他在全美的知名度进一步提高。据报道，特朗普之所以支持德桑蒂斯，是因为看到他在福克斯新闻（Fox News）中的发言。
不过德桑蒂斯真正崛起是在新冠疫情期间。硅谷和华尔街移民寻找零所得税和封锁期间能够保持“开放”的州，纷纷涌入佛罗里达。他迎合了公众对疫情期间规避公共卫生指南和相关规定的期望，疫情爆发初期努力维持企业经营。在商界，他针对疫情颇受争议的立场一直是卖点，一些与《财富》杂志谈话的人都认为他特别亲商业。
最近，德桑蒂斯一些争议性政策受到了人们审视，例如从幼儿园到三年级禁止公立学校教师与学生讨论性取向或性别认同的法案很受争议，反对者称之为“不要说同性恋”（Don’t Say Gay）法案。他在堕胎问题上立场也更加强硬，最近暂停了坦帕地区一名州检察官的职务，罗诉韦德案（Roe v. Wade）被推翻后该检察官承诺不执行本州的新堕胎法。
过去几年一些搬到佛州的商业和创业人士很赞赏德桑蒂斯的执政方式。Bustle Digital Group的创始人及首席执行官布莱恩·戈德堡就是其中之一，该集团旗下包括Bustle、W杂志（W Magazine）和Gawker等媒体网站。他认为，德桑蒂斯优先考虑企业维持经营而不是执行公共卫生任务，所以很有吸引力：“他把经济放在首位。”最近戈德堡告诉《财富》杂志。他认为，经历了过去几年，“不仅是佛罗里达州，全美人民都相当认可德桑蒂斯当州长的表现。”至于2022年以后，“面临的问题不一样。”戈德堡说。（根据德桑蒂斯的政治行动委员会的记录，7月戈德堡为其竞选连任捐赠了1,000美元。）
德桑蒂斯反对“企业觉醒”也获得了戈德堡之类企业家的共鸣：“我认为企业应该远离政治。这是迪士尼惨败的教训：首席执行官不是民选官员。”他告诉《财富》杂志。正如戈德堡所说，近年来，不少首席执行官就各种“社会和政治问题”向员工发送新闻稿和内部通讯。“这是错误的。很糟糕。首席执行官只有一份工作，就是有效地管理公司。”他说。（当被问及在影响员工的问题上采取何种立场时，比如堕胎和推翻罗诉韦德案，戈德堡表示并不针对“某个特定问题”。）
其他人，例如Citadel的首席执行官格里芬，认为德桑蒂斯跟迪士尼斗争方面有些过分。迪士尼批评了德桑蒂斯的《家长教育权利法》（Parental Rights in Education law）或“不要说同性恋”法案后，德桑蒂斯提出解除迪士尼作为特别税区的地位，格里芬认为此举更像是“报复”。
德桑蒂斯针对科技巨头的一些立场，比如攻击所谓的社交媒体审查，并没有影响佛州成为硅谷和华尔街外派人士寻找对商业更友好州时的热门选择。过去几年，从金融巨头Citadel到Elliott Management Corp.等大公司都将总部迁至佛州，还有声名狼藉的投资者凯西·伍德掌管的资产管理公司ARK Investment Management（伍德一直是特朗普的支持者，但拒绝就下届选举候选人的看法向《财富》杂志发表评论）。
然而，德桑蒂斯也将矛头对准了投资管理行业，特别是嘲笑着重考虑环境、社会和治理因素的ESG投资，要求州管理委员会（State Board of Administration）的基金经理在投资时不许考虑ESG。不过对长期风险投资者，也是贝宝帮（PayPal mafia）的基思·拉布瓦来说，此举并未让他反感。拉布瓦如今在迈阿密的风投公司Founders Fund。“ESG投资就是欺诈。”他对《财富》杂志表示，“所以如果有政客想传达我们的观点，我们肯定不会反对。”
佛州州长“营造的氛围是，这是创业的好地方。这是人们感到兴奋的主要原因。”位于迈阿密的早期投资和孵化公司帕累托控股（Pareto Holdings）的执行合伙人爱德华·兰多告诉《财富》杂志（兰多住在佛州，但因为他是法国公民，所以没有资格在美国投票）。兰多称，他的圈子里有人在谈论德桑蒂斯，而且他认为，“如果提出德桑迪斯是一位不错的候选人，争议比起支持特朗普就要小得多”。
坦率的保守派风险投资人拉布瓦和其他人一样，还在努力对冲风险：“显然，所有人都在等着看谁参加竞选。确切得知候选人是谁之前不必做决定。”他说。不过拉布瓦表示，不管是德桑蒂斯，还是佛州参议员马尔科·鲁比奥或里克·斯科特或迈阿密市的市长弗朗西斯·苏亚雷斯，如果其中有人可以成为下一任总统，都会让人“兴奋”，他认为这几位“都会得到佛州科技界和商界领袖的广泛支持。”佛州之外，他特别提出南卡罗来纳州前州长尼基·黑利和阿肯色州参议汤姆·科顿是“顶尖候选人”，但不确定这几人会不会参选。他宣称：“我认识的很多商界领袖都不会支持特朗普。”
拉布瓦最关注的政策包括中美竞争；小企业和教育从疫情复苏；还有“佛州作为低税和监管宽松之地”促进商业和“成功就业”。他认为，这些问题都是德桑蒂斯能够用来区分自己和他人的“问题组合”。但拉布瓦也承认，在他的风投和创业圈里“不谈论这些。太忙了。”
除了佛罗里达本地人，“硅谷和科技界对特朗普评价不高。未来估计不会有变化，迈阿密科技圈想必也不会更热情。”Bustle Digital Group的戈德堡说。他表示，科技和金融业向佛州大量转移的结果是，不少新来者“两党皆考虑”，他相信大多数佛州人和科技界人士会支持德桑蒂斯。戈德堡认为，堕胎权等问题对科技公司很重要，德桑蒂斯可能必须谨慎行事：“成千上万人前往佛州开始新生活，他们可不希望权利减少。”他建议。
但很明显，“管理一个州是一回事，管理一国是另一回事。”共和党长期筹款人和律师埃里克·莱文指出。“很多人都想多了解一些他在经济方面的愿景。”
展望2024年
尽管德桑蒂斯已经收获大量捐赠者的支持，他对2024年是否参选的谣言一直保持沉默，可能原因是今年秋天即将举行的中期选举，毕竟共和党人希望控制参议院和众议院。共和党筹款人兼律师莱文认为：“很难知道他们不表态是不是因为不想反对特朗普，还是像我一样，只想继续关注中期选举。”很多报道显示，共和党成员确实担心11月之前特朗普宣布参加2024年大选，也有报道称特朗普正考虑中期选举之后再宣布。
不管捐赠者是否已经明确表态，从当前思潮、媒体关注和民调来看，德桑蒂斯已经成为与特朗普角逐下届大选的关键候选人。“我认为，（2024年）如果德桑蒂斯的名字出现，部分原因就是大家都听说过他。”莱文告诉《财富》杂志。“这个月已经有点感觉，因为现在是认名字阶段。”他表示。“他跟迪士尼斗争；跟白宫首席医疗顾问安东尼·福奇斗争；还在跟加州州长加文·纽瑟姆斗争。”
但即便面对特朗普在全球声名狼藉，莱文还是认为媒体关注不一定可以削弱其胜算。“总有一些领先者——比如希拉里·克林顿，2008年她怎么了？或者2016年杰布·布什怎么了？当年有谁知名度和收入比杰布·布什高？”他争辩道。“大选刚开始知名度如何，跟最后人们把票投给谁，中间是有区别的。”
当然，这还不是两人竞选：莱文说，关于2024年大选已经听到人们谈论阿肯色州参议员科顿、前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥、南卡罗来纳州前州长黑利、前副总统迈克·彭斯和南卡罗莱纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特等（到目前为止，几人的支持率远低于德桑蒂斯）。
即便特朗普因为1月6日国会暴乱而受到调查，以及美国联邦调查局（FBI）为调查涉嫌不当处理机密文件突击搜查海湖庄园，特朗普在共和党中的支持率仍然不可否认，虽然根据一些民调，认为他应该再次参选的共和党人比例有所下降。
长期以来，特朗普的白宫前传播总监、SkyBridge Capital的创始人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇一直直言批评德桑蒂斯。6月他告诉《财富》杂志，德桑蒂斯没有机会击败特朗普，特朗普最终会“打败德桑蒂斯”。他认为，特朗普“非常善妒”，“会在政治上明嘲暗讽地诋毁德桑蒂斯。”斯卡拉穆奇补充说，虽然特朗普“可能无法获得共和党提名……在失败的过程中，他会毁掉德桑蒂斯。”
犹他州共和党主席乔根森等人打赌，“如果特朗普参选，就仍然会得到基层群众支持。”他认为“政治”人群眼中德桑蒂斯“除了刻薄推文，就是另一个特朗普”，或者正如《纽约客》（New Yorker）最近一篇文章中指出，“智慧版特朗普”。但他认为特朗普“仍然获得民众拥戴。”事实上，特朗普的支持者吹嘘他基层支持广泛。截至7月底，特朗普的“拯救美国政治行动委员会”（Save America PAC，据报道，联邦陪审团正在就1月6日暴乱对其调查）拥有现金约9,900万美元（不过有报道称，这笔钱不能用于2024年大选，而且特朗普等待宣布2024年参选之际，已经面临违反竞选法募集资金的指控）。
“很多人坐山观虎斗，因为有些人想支持特朗普，但又有点怀疑。”乔根森分析道。也“有人想支持德桑蒂斯，但不敢出头，因为这么做很危险。”
今夏犹他州筹款活动上，与会者觥筹交错间，关于下届大选的话题呼之欲出。但约根森清楚记得，即使在德桑蒂斯自己的筹款活动上，谈起2024年会对谁感兴趣时还是有人提到了另一个名字：特朗普。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
It was early afternoon in late July, and Carson Jorgensen was waiting in a decadent restaurant at the St. Regis hotel in Park City, Utah, along with a group of donors and business leaders, for the guest of honor to arrive.
Right on time, Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida whose star has risen rapidly over the past couple of years, appeared and efficiently worked through a photo line, before addressing the room over salads and chicken at lunch in the hotel’s RIME restaurant. With the majestic Rocky Mountains in the background, the group had assembled for the second of a pair of fundraising events for DeSantis in Utah in late July, raising money for his 2022 gubernatorial reelection campaign. Jorgensen, who serves as chair of the Utah Republican Party, recounts that the event was composed of some “upper-class donors” in “dressed-up casual” attire, as it was a “more expensive fundraiser,” he estimated (tickets to the lunch event reportedly went for $5,000 a pop). DeSantis spoke for about half an hour, Jorgensen remembers, touching on topics such as pushing back against supposedly “woke” corporations such as Disney, and how he opened up the economy in Florida during the pandemic.
It’s DeSantis’s unabashed pro-business, anti–political correctness stances, combined with just enough of former President Donald Trump’s pugnaciousness, that have earned him admiration among some of Florida’s increasingly powerful tech and finance set, some of whom wager he could ride the wave all the way to the White House in 2024.
The governor has amassed a wealthy crowd of donors in recent years: His supporters include billionaires like hedge fund Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, packaging materials tycoon Richard Uihlein, and Home Depot cofounder and former CEO Bernie Marcus, who have all donated to DeSantis’s political action committee Friends of Ron DeSantis within the past two years. DeSantis’s new largest donor is hotel mogul and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow, who chipped in a whopping $10 million in July. All told, DeSantis has raised a hefty $172 million as of Aug. 19, per OpenSecrets, a group that tracks political contributions. And though the Utah fundraiser was hosted to solely support DeSantis’s reelection campaign in Florida, attendees discussed his potential 2024 presidential aspirations, recalls Jorgensen. “He’s done a lot of things right,” Citadel CEO Griffin said of DeSantis onstage at the Milken Institute Global Conference in May, also noting that “he is unquestionably one of the forerunners in the Republican primary today.” Griffin has been a top DeSantis donor, giving $5 million to the governor in 2021.
Though DeSantis hasn’t announced plans to run for president yet, he’s emerged as the principal challenger to Trump, who’s heavily teased a potential 2024 bid. Most recent polls show Trump with a sizable lead over DeSantis (the latest Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted between Aug. 19 and Aug. 21 showed Trump with a 39-point lead over DeSantis, the second-highest-ranking candidate), though DeSantis handily beats others in the hypothetical running.
But while DeSantis himself has developed a reputation for sparring with the press and issuing forceful and controversial opinions on everything from transgender athletes to his dislike of masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, his biggest backers are largely keeping mum about whether they think he’ll mount a run in 2024—or if they’d support him. Fortune reached out to more than a dozen of these (in fairness, sometimes tight-lipped billionaires) about DeSantis and they either didn’t return requests for comment or declined to speak on the record; DeSantis’s campaign also didn’t respond to multiple requests for an interview.
It will be some time before DeSantis would hypothetically announce a 2024 bid—he’s still zeroed in on the 2022 gubernatorial race in Florida. And without any candidates having yet thrown their hat in the ring for the 2024 presidential race, there are plenty of unknowns. But it’s clear that whether or not DeSantis would be among them, the Florida governor has garnered powerful and fervent backing from some of the biggest finance and tech players—not only in Florida, but in other parts of the country as well—for his immoderate, and often Trumpian, stances on controversial issues. Through his actions and words, he’s fueling that set of business leaders who think ESG investing is a joke; who don’t believe companies should be weighing in on social issues, or what DeSantis considers anti-“wokeness”; and those who believe the economy should be a top, if not the top, priority.
Whatever happens in 2024, DeSantis is influencing the conversation leading up to that race.
Support in the Miami business scene
Despite his tendency to take on the Establishment, DeSantis himself boasts a classic Ivy League résumé. He spent much of his childhood in Dunedin, Fla., where he played Little League baseball, then attended college at Yale University, where he was captain of the varsity baseball team. After graduating he went on to graduate from Harvard Law School.
Prior to politics, DeSantis served in the U.S. Navy as a legal adviser, and following active duty, as a federal prosecutor. In his earlier political career, he was a congressman for Florida from 2013 until 2018. He registered further on the national radar when former President Trump endorsed him for governor in the 2018 election, a decision Trump reportedly made after seeing DeSantis speak on Fox News.
But it wasn’t really until the pandemic that DeSantis’s star began to rise: With the surge of Silicon Valley and Wall Street transplants flocking to Florida in search of zero state income tax and an “open” state during lockdowns, he capitalized on the attention for eschewing public health guidelines and mandates regarding COVID-19 to focus on keeping businesses open during the early days of the pandemic. His controversial COVID stance has been a selling point for some in the business milieu, including some who spoke with Fortune, who perceive him as being particularly pro-business.
More recently, DeSantis has drawn scrutiny for some of his controversial policies, including the highly criticized bill prohibiting public school teachers from discussing sexual orientation or gender identity with students in kindergarten through third grade, dubbed by opponents as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. He has also taken a harder stance on abortion, recently suspending a Tampa-area elected state attorney who promised not to enforce the state’s new abortion law following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Some of the business and entrepreneurial crowd who moved to the state over the past couple of years praise the way DeSantis has governed. One such transplant, Bryan Goldberg, founder and CEO of Bustle Digital Group (BDG), which operates media sites including Bustle, W Magazine, and Gawker, moved to Florida during the pandemic, and thinks DeSantis’s track record of prioritizing businesses staying open over public health mandates makes him appealing: “He’s a person who put the economy first,” Goldberg recently told Fortune. He argues that after the past couple of years, “it’s not just Florida—national sentiment has swung favorably toward DeSantis’s performance as governor.” But as to beyond 2022, “that’s a different question,” Goldberg says. (Goldberg donated $1,000 to DeSantis’s reelection campaign in July, per DeSantis’s PAC records.)
DeSantis’s agenda against what he considers “wokeness” resonates with entrepreneurs like Goldberg: “I think businesses need to stay out of politics. That’s the lesson from the Disney debacle: CEOs are not elected officials,” he told Fortune. In recent years, CEOs have sent press releases and communications to employees about various “social and political issues,” as Goldberg puts it. “That’s wrong. That’s bad. CEOs have one job, and that job is to run their company effectively,” he argues. (When asked about that stance regarding issues that affect employees, like abortion and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Goldberg said he was not “talking about any particular issue.”)
Others, like Citadel CEO Griffin, think DeSantis went too far in picking a fight with Disney. DeSantis went after the entertainment titan’s status as a special tax district following the company’s criticism of DeSantis’s Parental Rights in Education law or, colloquially, the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, and Griffin believed the move could look like “retaliation” from DeSantis.
Notwithstanding some of DeSantis’s stances, like targeting Big Tech, which he has attacked over what he calls social media censorship, Florida has become a hotspot for Silicon Valley and Wall Street expats seeking a more business-friendly state to set up shop. Large companies from financial titan Citadel to Elliott Management Corp. have moved their headquarters to Florida in the past couple of years, alongside asset management firm ARK Investment Management, run by infamous investor Cathie Wood (Wood has historically been a Trump supporter, but declined to comment to Fortune regarding her thoughts on candidates for the next election).
DeSantis has, however, taken aim at the investment management industry—specifically deriding ESG-focused investing, which takes into account environmental, social, and governance factors, in a ban for State Board of Administration (SBA) fund managers to consider ESG when investing. But those like longtime venture investor and PayPal mafia alum Keith Rabois of VC firm Founders Fund, who’s based in Miami, aren’t put off: “ESG investing is a fraud,” he opined to Fortune, so “if politicians want to reflect our views, we’re certainly not going to be opposed to that.”
The Florida governor “gives off this vibe that this is a great place to build a business. That is the main thing that I think people are excited about,” Edward Lando, managing partner at early-stage investment and incubation firm Pareto Holdings, based in Miami, told Fortune (Though he lives in Florida, Lando is a French citizen and isn’t eligible to vote in the U.S.). Among his circles, Lando says there’s chatter about DeSantis, and he contends “it’s much less controversial to say that you think DeSantis is an interesting candidate” than Trump.
Venture investor and outspoken conservative Rabois is, like others, still hedging: “Obviously, everybody’s just waiting to see who runs. There’s no reason to make a decision until you know who the candidates are,” he said. However Rabois said he’d be “excited” about either DeSantis, Florida Senators Marco Rubio or Rick Scott, or Miami Mayor Francis Suarez as the next president, arguing any of those “would have a lot of support across the board from tech and business community leaders in Florida.” Outside the state, he singled out former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton as “top-tier candidates,” though he isn’t sure if they’d run, and declared, “I don’t think many business leaders that I know are interested in supporting Trump.”
The biggest policies Rabois is focused on moving forward include U.S. competition with China; small-business and education recovery from the pandemic; and the “anti-tax and anti-regulation base of Florida” that “promotes” business and “successful jobs,” he says. They’re among a “portfolio of issues” he argues DeSantis can use to contrast himself with others. But among his VC and startup circles, Rabois admits, “We don’t talk about this stuff. I’m too busy.”
Beyond homegrown Floridians, “Silicon Valley and the tech community did not have a high opinion of President Trump. I don’t expect that to change in the future, nor do I expect the Miami tech scene to receive him much more warmly,” argues Bustle Digital Group’s Goldberg. The stream of tech and finance transplants into Florida has brought with it a crowd who, according to Goldberg, would “consider both parties,” though he believes most Floridians and the tech crowd will favor DeSantis. Issues like abortion rights are important to the tech group, Goldberg suggests, where DeSantis would likely have to tread a careful line: “Of the hundreds of thousands who have journeyed to Florida to start a new life, they’re not coming here in hopes of finding fewer rights,” he suggests.
But clearly, “it’s one thing to run a state—it’s another thing to run a country,” notes Eric Levine, a longtime GOP fundraiser and attorney. “A lot of people would want to know more about his economic vision.”
Looking ahead to 2024
Despite the support the governor has garnered from big-time donors, one possible reason for the general silence on 2024 rumors is the upcoming midterm elections this fall—where Republicans hope to take control of the Senate and the House. Levine, the GOP fundraiser and attorney, argues “it’s hard to know whether or not people are not coming out because they don’t want to cross Trump, or whether or not, like myself, [they] want to stay focused on the midterm elections.” Indeed, numerous reports suggest members of the Republican Party are concerned about Trump announcing a 2024 bid before November, though Trump is now reportedly considering waiting until after the elections.
But regardless if donors are saying it out loud yet, in terms of the zeitgeist, media attention, and polling, DeSantis has emerged as the key candidate to battle it out with Trump for the next election. “I think part of the reason why DeSantis’s name comes up [for 2024] is everyone’s heard of him,” Levine told Fortune. “There’s a little bit of a flavor of the month because it’s name recognition at this point,” he suggests. “He’s fighting with Disney; he’s fighting with [White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony] Fauci; he’s fighting with [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom.”
But even in the face of Trump’s worldwide notoriety, Levine, for one, doesn’t believe media attention is enough to cut it. “You always have these front-runners—I mean, Hillary Clinton, what happened to her in 2008? Or Jeb Bush in [20]16? Who had higher name recognition and more money than Jeb Bush?” he argues. “There’s a difference between name recognition at the very beginning of the process, and at the end of the day, you know, who you’re going to vote for.”
Certainly it’s not a two-person race just yet: Levine, for one, says he’s heard the names of Arkansas Sen. Cotton, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Governor of South Carolina Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott tossed around for 2024 (they’re polling far below DeSantis thus far).
And even in spite of the investigation into Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection and the recent FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago as part of an investigation into alleged mishandling of classified documents, Trump’s popularity among Republicans is still undeniable—even if, by some polls, the percentage of Republicans who think he should run again has waned somewhat.
Indeed, Trump’s former White House communications director and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who has long been a vocal critic of DeSantis, told Fortune back in June that he didn’t think DeSantis stood a chance at beating Trump, arguing that Trump would end up “killing DeSantis,” Scaramucci opined at the time. Trump “is a jealous guy,” he argued. “He’ll damage him politically, metaphorically.” Scaramucci added that while Trump “may not actually become the Republican nominee…on the way to not becoming the Republican nominee, I think he’s gonna destroy DeSantis.”
Those like Utah Republican Party chair Jorgensen wager “if Trump runs, he’s got the grass-roots folks still.” He believes the “political” crowd see DeSantis as “everything you get from Trump without the mean tweets”—or, as the New Yorker noted in a recent profile, “Trump with a brain”—but argues Trump is “still a champion amongst the people.” Indeed, Trump proponents tout that he still has formidable grass-roots support. Trump’s Save America PAC (which is reportedly being probed by a federal grand jury regarding Jan. 6) had roughly $99 million in cash on hand at the end of July (though reports say that money can’t be used for a 2024 campaign, and Trump is already facing accusations that he’s broken campaign laws in raising money while waiting to announce a 2024 run).
“You’re seeing a lot of people sit back and see what pans out, because I think there’s some people who want to support Trump that are a little leery of it,” Jorgensen theorizes. There are also “people who want to support DeSantis, but none of them dare stick their head out—because it’s a pretty dangerous place to be.”
Back in Utah earlier this summer, as the attendees of the gubernatorial fundraiser mingled, the topic of the next presidential election was on the tip of tongues—but even at DeSantis’s own event, Jorgensen remembers some attendees bringing up another name in conversations about who they’d be interested in for 2024: Trump.
