知名对冲基金经理迈克尔·伯里表示，本财报季让人感觉是“最后的欢呼”
WILL DANIEL
2022-07-30
2010年9月6日，星期一，美国加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺，Scion Asset Management负责人迈克尔·伯里摆姿势拍照。图片来源：TONY AVELAR/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
2015年的电影《大空头》（The Big Short）里有个片段，讲述了2008年金融危机期间迈克尔·伯里如何准确预测形势，而他也因此出名。伯里期表示，虽然当前财报季比预期好，但今后一段时间可能要走下坡路。
周二，他在一条推文中写道：“看着这些财报，天呐整个财报季都有种‘最后的欢呼’的感觉。”这条推文目前已经删除。
现年51岁的伯里是Scion Asset Management创始人，多年来一直在警告经济将陷入衰退。他表示，长期以来利率接近零，所以科技股和加密货币等风险资产涨到不可持续的水平。本月早些时候他提出，去全球化背景下，各国只能争取商品自给自足并重组供应链，所以通货膨胀将持续。
伯里发表上述评论的时间点在微软（Microsoft）和Alphabet发布二季度财报之后。由于在艰难的宏观经济环境中盈利好于预期，两大巨头的股票在7月27日上涨超过4%。
周二标准普尔道琼斯指数公司（S&P Dow Jones Indices）高级指数分析师霍华德·西尔弗布拉特在推特上指出，到目前为止二季度财报季整体相对强劲。他说，标准普尔500指数中28%的公司宣布盈利，75.9%的公司盈利超过预期，71.2%销售超过预期。
不过，周一萨维塔·萨布拉曼尼亚负责的美国银行（Bank of America）策略团队在一份报告中表示，从企业盈利预测能发现一些走熊迹象，呼应了伯里的“最后的欢呼”言论。
“财报电话会议中企业信心普遍下降，2008年企业信心指数有过类似的同比下降。”报告写道。
萨布拉曼尼亚指出，企业信心指数同比变化与随后季度盈利“相关度极高”，他还补充称这表明企业“未来盈利将大幅下降”。
美国银行策略团队还表示，公司财报电话中提及需求疲弱的频率达到新冠疫情爆发以来最高水平，而且他们认为不管是Netflix用户流失，还是AT&T预测下调10亿美元自由现金流，都是“消费者消费能力减弱的预警信号”。
伯里在6月预测，到圣诞节美国通货膨胀将导致消费者支出下降，甚至出现“衰退”。这就是华尔街目前的预期。
沃尔玛本周的盈利预警再次印证了伯里的预测。沃尔玛表示，飙升的食品价格和油价严重影响了消费者需求，正着手处理库存不匹配问题，未出售商品只得被迫降价。
本财年第一季度（截至4月30日的三个月），沃尔玛的净利润同比下降了24%，沃尔玛还指出由于成本飙升和消费者需求下降，预计今年公司净利润还将进一步下降。（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
2015年的电影《大空头》（The Big Short）里有个片段，讲述了2008年金融危机期间迈克尔·伯里如何准确预测形势，而他也因此出名。伯里期表示，虽然当前财报季比预期好，但今后一段时间可能要走下坡路。
周二，他在一条推文中写道：“看着这些财报，天呐整个财报季都有种‘最后的欢呼’的感觉。”这条推文目前已经删除。
现年51岁的伯里是Scion Asset Management创始人，多年来一直在警告经济将陷入衰退。他表示，长期以来利率接近零，所以科技股和加密货币等风险资产涨到不可持续的水平。本月早些时候他提出，去全球化背景下，各国只能争取商品自给自足并重组供应链，所以通货膨胀将持续。
伯里发表上述评论的时间点在微软（Microsoft）和Alphabet发布二季度财报之后。由于在艰难的宏观经济环境中盈利好于预期，两大巨头的股票在7月27日上涨超过4%。
周二标准普尔道琼斯指数公司（S&P Dow Jones Indices）高级指数分析师霍华德·西尔弗布拉特在推特上指出，到目前为止二季度财报季整体相对强劲。他说，标准普尔500指数中28%的公司宣布盈利，75.9%的公司盈利超过预期，71.2%销售超过预期。
不过，周一萨维塔·萨布拉曼尼亚负责的美国银行（Bank of America）策略团队在一份报告中表示，从企业盈利预测能发现一些走熊迹象，呼应了伯里的“最后的欢呼”言论。
“财报电话会议中企业信心普遍下降，2008年企业信心指数有过类似的同比下降。”报告写道。
萨布拉曼尼亚指出，企业信心指数同比变化与随后季度盈利“相关度极高”，他还补充称这表明企业“未来盈利将大幅下降”。
美国银行策略团队还表示，公司财报电话中提及需求疲弱的频率达到新冠疫情爆发以来最高水平，而且他们认为不管是Netflix用户流失，还是AT&T预测下调10亿美元自由现金流，都是“消费者消费能力减弱的预警信号”。
伯里在6月预测，到圣诞节美国通货膨胀将导致消费者支出下降，甚至出现“衰退”。这就是华尔街目前的预期。
沃尔玛本周的盈利预警再次印证了伯里的预测。沃尔玛表示，飙升的食品价格和油价严重影响了消费者需求，正着手处理库存不匹配问题，未出售商品只得被迫降价。
本财年第一季度（截至4月30日的三个月），沃尔玛的净利润同比下降了24%，沃尔玛还指出由于成本飙升和消费者需求下降，预计今年公司净利润还将进一步下降。（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
Michael Burry, who became famous for his prescient predictions during the Great Financial Crisis immortalized in the 2015 movie ‘The Big Short,’ said this week that the current better-than-expected earnings season may be the best we see for some time.
"These earnings reports and by Jove the whole season have a 'Last Hurrah' feel," he wrote in a now-deleted tweet on Tuesday.
The 51-year-old founder of Scion Asset Management has been warning of an impending recession for years now, arguing that longtime near-zero interest rates pushed risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies to unsustainable levels. And earlier this month, he made the case that inflation is here to stay as deglobalization drives countries to seek commodity self-sufficiency and restructure their supply chains.
Burry’s most recent comments follow Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings, which were better-than-expected given the difficult macroeconomic environment, leading the big tech giant’s stocks to jump more than 4% on Wednesday.
Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, also noted in a Tuesday tweet that so far the second quarter earnings season has been relatively strong overall. With 28% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported earnings, 75.9% have beat their earnings estimates, while 71.2% topped sales estimates, he said.
Still, Bank of America strategists, led by Savita Subramanian, said in a research note on Monday that there have been some bearish signs in corporate earnings calls, lending weight to Burry’s “Last Hurrah” comments.
“Corporate sentiment during earnings calls sank, with a similar YoY [year-over-year] drop as in 2008,” they wrote.
Subramanian noted that year-over-year changes in sentiment have been “highly correlated” to subsequent quarter earnings, adding that this points to “a big drop in earnings ahead.”
The Bank of America team also said that mentions of weak demand in corporate earnings calls are at their highest level since COVID-19 began and that they see Netflix's subscriber loss and AT&T's $1 billion free-cash-flow forecast cut as “warning signs of weakening consumer strength.”
Burry predicted in June that U.S. inflation would lead to a pullback in consumer spending, or even a “consumer recession,” by Christmas. And so far, that’s what Wall Street is seeing.
Walmart’s profit warning this week was yet another confirmation for the hedge funder. The retail giant said that soaring food and fuel prices have wreaked havoc on consumer demand, and it is dealing with an inventory mismatch as a result, forcing price cuts on unsold goods.
The company saw a 24% drop in its net income for the quarter that ended in April, but noted that it expects a further decline this year due to its soaring costs and falling demand from consumers.
