美国西部将出现用电荒
一家电力运营商警告说出现了“异常”情况，因此，今年夏天，美国西部地区出现电力短缺和停电的可能性越来越大。
长期干旱、供应链限制和其他威胁导致国际监管机构北美电力可靠性公司（North American Electric Reliability Corporation）得出结论：今年夏天，美国西部和加拿大几个地区面临严重的能源短缺风险。
这家机构的可靠性评估经理马克·奥尔森在一份声明中说：“生产制造业从设备和操作人员从两方面入手做好了应对夏季挑战的准备。然而，持续的极端干旱及随之出现的异常天气模式，往往会给电力供需带来额外压力。”
北美西部目前正在陷入北美大陆数百年来最严重的特大干旱，部分是由气候变化引起的。干旱状况再加上夏季高温，预计将导致美国的得克萨斯州等州出现极端高温。
据北美电力可靠性公司称，极端高温将导致夏季高峰期电力需求高于平均水平，这可能会让能源系统变得紧张，而能源系统已经面临稀缺燃料和其他资源的压力。
该机构指出，输电线路建设和维修项目已经因为供应链限制而推迟。对于一些发电厂，例如燃煤电厂，燃料供应缓慢使得基础设施不太能够满足夏季高峰期的电力需求。由于今年的积雪量低于正常水平，占全国发电量7%以上的替代水电供应商在今年夏天的能源产出也可能较低。
北美电力可靠性公司表示，其他因素，包括活跃野火季节夏季和秋季带来的威胁，可能导致停电的风险更高。
美国西部的野火季节似乎已经提前开始，得克萨斯州和新墨西哥州已经发生了几起大火。根据天气预报AccuWeather的分析，预计2022年野火季节的影响将“高于正常水平”，如果像北美电力可靠性公司预测的那样，野火季节延长至秋季，它可能就会威胁大电力系统的可靠性。
奥尔森指出：“今年夏天，受影响地区的电网运营商将需要运用所有可用工具来维持系统平衡。”该报告列举了过去一年对关键输电基础设施进行的重大改进，比如得克萨斯州的ERCOT电网，这可能有助于避免灾难性的能源短缺，但警告监管机构和公用事业公司对其电力容量和外部条件保持警惕。
奥尔森说：“从长远来看，系统规划者和资源充足性利益相关者需要牢记像这样的潜在异常天气条件，以便我们持续拥有可靠的弹性大电力系统。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
一家电力运营商警告说出现了“异常”情况，因此，今年夏天，美国西部地区出现电力短缺和停电的可能性越来越大。
长期干旱、供应链限制和其他威胁导致国际监管机构北美电力可靠性公司（North American Electric Reliability Corporation）得出结论：今年夏天，美国西部和加拿大几个地区面临严重的能源短缺风险。
这家机构的可靠性评估经理马克·奥尔森在一份声明中说：“生产制造业从设备和操作人员从两方面入手做好了应对夏季挑战的准备。然而，持续的极端干旱及随之出现的异常天气模式，往往会给电力供需带来额外压力。”
北美西部目前正在陷入北美大陆数百年来最严重的特大干旱，部分是由气候变化引起的。干旱状况再加上夏季高温，预计将导致美国的得克萨斯州等州出现极端高温。
据北美电力可靠性公司称，极端高温将导致夏季高峰期电力需求高于平均水平，这可能会让能源系统变得紧张，而能源系统已经面临稀缺燃料和其他资源的压力。
该机构指出，输电线路建设和维修项目已经因为供应链限制而推迟。对于一些发电厂，例如燃煤电厂，燃料供应缓慢使得基础设施不太能够满足夏季高峰期的电力需求。由于今年的积雪量低于正常水平，占全国发电量7%以上的替代水电供应商在今年夏天的能源产出也可能较低。
北美电力可靠性公司表示，其他因素，包括活跃野火季节夏季和秋季带来的威胁，可能导致停电的风险更高。
美国西部的野火季节似乎已经提前开始，得克萨斯州和新墨西哥州已经发生了几起大火。根据天气预报AccuWeather的分析，预计2022年野火季节的影响将“高于正常水平”，如果像北美电力可靠性公司预测的那样，野火季节延长至秋季，它可能就会威胁大电力系统的可靠性。
奥尔森指出：“今年夏天，受影响地区的电网运营商将需要运用所有可用工具来维持系统平衡。”该报告列举了过去一年对关键输电基础设施进行的重大改进，比如得克萨斯州的ERCOT电网，这可能有助于避免灾难性的能源短缺，但警告监管机构和公用事业公司对其电力容量和外部条件保持警惕。
奥尔森说：“从长远来看，系统规划者和资源充足性利益相关者需要牢记像这样的潜在异常天气条件，以便我们持续拥有可靠的弹性大电力系统。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Electricity shortages and blackouts are increasingly possible for the American West this summer, as an electrical operator warns of “out-of-the-ordinary” conditions.
A prolonged drought, supply-chain constraints, and other threats have led the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), an international regulatory body, to conclude that several regions in the western U.S. and Canada are at risk of severe energy shortfalls this summer.
“Industry prepares its equipment and operators for challenging summer conditions,” Mark Olson, manager of reliability assessments at NERC, said in a statement. “Persistent, extreme drought and its accompanying weather patterns, however, are out-of-the-ordinary and tend to create extra stresses on electricity supply and demand.”
The western half of North America is currently mired in the worst megadrought the continent has seen in hundreds of years, partly fueled by climate change. Drought conditions combined with high summer temperatures are expected to lead to instances of extreme heat in states such as Texas.
Extreme heat would contribute to higher-than-average peak power demands over the summer, according to NERC, which could strain energy systems already stressed by scarce fuel and other resources.
NERC notes that construction and repair projects for transmission lines have been delayed by supply-chain constraints. And for some power plants, such as coal plants, slow fuel deliveries make it less likely that infrastructure will be able to meet higher peak demand during the summer. Alternative hydroelectric power suppliers, which generate more than 7% of the country’s electricity, are also likely to have lower energy output this summer due to a below-normal snowpack this year.
Other factors, including the possibility of cybersecurity threats from Russian disruptors and an active summer and fall wildfire season, could lead to an even higher risk of blackouts, according to NERC.
Meanwhile, wildfire season in the American West appears to have begun early, with several large fires already rampaging through Texas and New Mexico. The impact of the 2022 wildfire season is expected to be “above normal,” according to an analysis by weather forecaster AccuWeather, and should the season stretch into fall, as NERC predicts, it could threaten the reliability of bulk power systems.
“Grid operators in affected areas will need all available tools to keep the system in balance this summer,” Olson said. The report cited some important improvements that have been made over the past year to critical transmission infrastructure, such as Texas’ ERCOT grid, which could help avoid catastrophic energy shortfalls, but warns regulators and utilities to remain vigilant over their electricity capacity and how external conditions play out.
“Over the longer term,” Olson said, “system planners and resource adequacy stakeholders need to keep potentially abnormal weather conditions like these in mind so that we continue to have a reliable and resilient bulk power system.”
