美国房地产市场略有降温，但抢购仍然激烈
随着抵押贷款利率的上涨将更多的购房人挤出市场，美国的房地产市场终于开始降温。但与新冠疫情爆发之前相比，竞购依旧激烈，而且竞价大战在房价最高的部分地区继续如火如荼地展开。
在过去两年的大部分时间里，可出售房屋的库存始终处在历史最低水平。新冠疫情初期，在低抵押贷款利率和新远程办公选择的带动下，购房人涌入房地产市场。这导致美国的待售房屋数量大幅减少，房屋库存量始终未能完全恢复。
虽然从美联储（Federal Reserve）的数据来看，目前的抵押贷款利率已经很高了，从2021年4月的3.04%上涨到5.11%，但在供应有限的情况下，需求依旧高涨。
早期迹象表明，更高的抵押贷款利率开始让潜在购房人打消进入市场的念头，市场竞争略有缓解。但个别市场的竞争依旧激烈，而且竞价大战并未结束。
竞争减少
在线房地产公司Redfin的最新报告称，今年3月的新房竞购率从2月的67%小幅下降到65%。竞购率是根据获得超过一个出价的房源数量计算出来的。据该公司观察，这是自2021年9月以来，该数字首次出现同比下降。
竞争减少是房地产市场开始降温的一个关键指标。在2021年3月至2022年3月期间，房价上涨了19.2%，平均房价创下历史纪录。
自今年3月以来，美联储逐步加息以应对恶性通货膨胀，而且在4月，房价上涨近20%，令其他大宗商品8.5%的价格涨幅相形见绌。
竞争减少代表美联储的策略开始生效，但房源竞争率下降2%的变化幅度并不大，而且并不意味着近期内房价会下跌。
竞价大战依旧存在
在价格持续上涨的房地产市场中，更高的抵押贷款利率意味着购房人更少，进而将减少竞争。
不过虽然房屋需求下降，但库存量依旧较低，而且待售房屋供应远低于新冠疫情爆发之前的正常水平。
2020年4月，只有41%的房源吸引了竞价，但现在这一比例却达到65%。
虽然全国性的竞价大战在最近几个月首次出现了降温的迹象，但在某些地区的房地产市场竞争依旧激烈。据Redfin统计，在圣何塞和波士顿等房价涨幅最大的几个美国城市，竞争率超过了75%。这些城市的房价更高。许多城市的房地产市场逆势而动，竞价大战不但没有减少，反而愈演愈烈。
奥斯汀在2021年的房屋竞争率上涨超过21%，创下最大涨幅。圣安东尼奥房地产市场的竞争率也上涨了近16%，波士顿、圣何塞和迈阿密等城市发生竞价大战的频率提高了超过6%。
全国竞争减少是个好迹象，表明房地产市场开始降温，房价上涨可能很快减速。但如果市场上的房屋库存不增加，出现竞价大战的频率就不太可能恢复到新冠疫情爆发之前的正常水平。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
随着抵押贷款利率的上涨将更多的购房人挤出市场，美国的房地产市场终于开始降温。但与新冠疫情爆发之前相比，竞购依旧激烈，而且竞价大战在房价最高的部分地区继续如火如荼地展开。
在过去两年的大部分时间里，可出售房屋的库存始终处在历史最低水平。新冠疫情初期，在低抵押贷款利率和新远程办公选择的带动下，购房人涌入房地产市场。这导致美国的待售房屋数量大幅减少，房屋库存量始终未能完全恢复。
虽然从美联储（Federal Reserve）的数据来看，目前的抵押贷款利率已经很高了，从2021年4月的3.04%上涨到5.11%，但在供应有限的情况下，需求依旧高涨。
早期迹象表明，更高的抵押贷款利率开始让潜在购房人打消进入市场的念头，市场竞争略有缓解。但个别市场的竞争依旧激烈，而且竞价大战并未结束。
竞争减少
在线房地产公司Redfin的最新报告称，今年3月的新房竞购率从2月的67%小幅下降到65%。竞购率是根据获得超过一个出价的房源数量计算出来的。据该公司观察，这是自2021年9月以来，该数字首次出现同比下降。
竞争减少是房地产市场开始降温的一个关键指标。在2021年3月至2022年3月期间，房价上涨了19.2%，平均房价创下历史纪录。
自今年3月以来，美联储逐步加息以应对恶性通货膨胀，而且在4月，房价上涨近20%，令其他大宗商品8.5%的价格涨幅相形见绌。
竞争减少代表美联储的策略开始生效，但房源竞争率下降2%的变化幅度并不大，而且并不意味着近期内房价会下跌。
竞价大战依旧存在
在价格持续上涨的房地产市场中，更高的抵押贷款利率意味着购房人更少，进而将减少竞争。
不过虽然房屋需求下降，但库存量依旧较低，而且待售房屋供应远低于新冠疫情爆发之前的正常水平。
2020年4月，只有41%的房源吸引了竞价，但现在这一比例却达到65%。
虽然全国性的竞价大战在最近几个月首次出现了降温的迹象，但在某些地区的房地产市场竞争依旧激烈。据Redfin统计，在圣何塞和波士顿等房价涨幅最大的几个美国城市，竞争率超过了75%。这些城市的房价更高。许多城市的房地产市场逆势而动，竞价大战不但没有减少，反而愈演愈烈。
奥斯汀在2021年的房屋竞争率上涨超过21%，创下最大涨幅。圣安东尼奥房地产市场的竞争率也上涨了近16%，波士顿、圣何塞和迈阿密等城市发生竞价大战的频率提高了超过6%。
全国竞争减少是个好迹象，表明房地产市场开始降温，房价上涨可能很快减速。但如果市场上的房屋库存不增加，出现竞价大战的频率就不太可能恢复到新冠疫情爆发之前的正常水平。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Housing in the U.S. is finally beginning to cool off, as higher mortgage rates begin to push more buyers out of the market. But competition is still much higher than it was pre-pandemic, and bidding wars continue to erupt in some of the country’s most expensive housing markets.
For most of the past two years, the inventory of available housing has been sitting at a historic low. Buyers flooded into the housing market in the pandemic’s early days, taking advantage of low mortgage rates and new remote work options. This massive influx of new homeowners severely depleted the supply of homes for sale in the U.S., and inventory has never fully recovered.
Although those mortgage rates are a lot higher now—up to 5.11%, from 3.04% in April 2021, according to Federal Reserve data—demand for a limited supply has stayed elevated.
Early signs show that higher mortgage rates are beginning to deter potential buyers from entering the market, as competition for housing is starting to ease slightly. But some markets remain highly competitive, and bidding wars aren’t over yet.
Less competition at last
The rate of competition for new homes—measured as the number of listings that attract more than one competing bid—fell slightly to 65% in March from nearly 67% in February, according to a new report by online real estate firm Redfin. It’s the first month-over-month decline the company has observed since September.
Less competition is a key indicator that the housing market is beginning to cool off. Home prices rose 19.2% between March 2021 and March of 2022, leading average home prices to hit a record high.
The Fed has been progressively raising interest rates since March to counter runaway inflation, and the nearly 20% increase in home prices eclipses the 8.5% price increase for other commodities observed in April.
Less competition indicates that the Fed’s strategy is working, but a 2% decrease in competitive listings is not a sea change, and does not necessarily mean lower housing prices in the near future.
Bidding wars are still here
Higher interest rates on mortgages should mean fewer buyers, and therefore less competition in the market driving up home prices.
But while demand for homes is falling, inventory also remains low, and the supply of homes for sale is still well below the pre-pandemic norm.
In April 2020, only 41% of listings ended up in bidding wars, compared to the 65% of home offers facing competition today.
And even though the national bidding war rate is showing the first signs of cooling seen in months, competition is still running rampant in some specific housing markets. Several U.S. cities where home prices are rising the most—such as San Jose and Boston—are seeing competition rates above 75%, according to Redfin. And many of these more expensive housing markets are bucking the trend and actually seeing an increase in bidding wars, not a decline.
Austin has seen the biggest bump in housing competition over the past year, up over 21%. Competition for housing in San Antonio also went up nearly 16%, while in other cities—including Boston, San Jose, and Miami—the frequency of bidding wars went up more than 6%.
Easing competition nationwide is a positive sign that the housing market is beginning to cool and prices might soon begin to decelerate. But without a larger inventory of houses on the market, it is unlikely that the frequency of bidding wars emerging will return to a pre-pandemic normal.
