投行称美国通胀已见顶，但小企业不这么想
自美国消费者价格指数3月升至1981年12月以来的新高之后，多家顶级投行称，美国通胀已经见顶。
美国银行（Bank of America）、瑞士联合银行（UBS）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley ）这类投行纷纷表示，随着创纪录燃油价格的回落，混乱供应链的好转，通胀在年底之前将逐渐趋于温和。
然而，4月12日发布的一项新调查显示，小企业对此有不同的看法。
美国独立企业联合会（NFIB）的《小企业乐观指数报告》（Small Business Optimism Index）显示，3月，72%的受调企业主称，由于通胀不断侵蚀其利润，他们计划在今年提升产品价格。
美国独立企业联合会首席经济学家比尔·邓克尔伯格在谈论该报告时称：“通胀影响了整个美国的小企业，如今已成为其最重要的商业问题。受通胀、持续的劳动力短缺以及供应链中断影响，小企业主对其未来的商业环境依然持悲观态度。”
约31%的小企业主称，通胀如今是其最大的商业挑战。 2月份以来，通胀率增长了5个百分点。
受此影响，小企业主对自家公司未来的乐观程度在3月持续下滑，降幅达到了2.4%，至93.2%。这是乐观指数连续第三个月低于其48年的平均水平98%。这项调查还发现，3月，预计未来业务会有所好转的企业主数量降至该调查面世48年以来的最低点。
出现这一现象的部分原因在于，众多企业依然面临着供应链问题所造成的困境，其中92%的企业主称，受损的供应链给他们带来了严重、中等或轻微影响。随着俄乌冲突愈演愈烈，中国新冠封锁越发严苛，这些问题可能会持续。
这里还存在劳动力市场紧张的问题。约47%的小企业主称，公司的岗位依然处于空缺状态，这一比例是其历史平均水平（23%）的两倍多。虽然存在招聘难的问题，但失业率仅有3.6%，而且近半数的企业主都称自己将提高薪资，以吸引新的雇员。
SurveyMonkey（提供市场洞见的云端调查工具）的高级研究科学家劳拉·朗斯基在本月初对美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）说：“我们目前在经济领域所拥有的所有可能信息源的每一个数据点都显示，招聘市场如今面临着巨大的挑战。失业率很低，但通胀很高，为了吸引员工，企业不得不调高薪资。”（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
自美国消费者价格指数3月升至1981年12月以来的新高之后，多家顶级投行称，美国通胀已经见顶。
美国银行（Bank of America）、瑞士联合银行（UBS）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley ）这类投行纷纷表示，随着创纪录燃油价格的回落，混乱供应链的好转，通胀在年底之前将逐渐趋于温和。
然而，4月12日发布的一项新调查显示，小企业对此有不同的看法。
美国独立企业联合会（NFIB）的《小企业乐观指数报告》（Small Business Optimism Index）显示，3月，72%的受调企业主称，由于通胀不断侵蚀其利润，他们计划在今年提升产品价格。
美国独立企业联合会首席经济学家比尔·邓克尔伯格在谈论该报告时称：“通胀影响了整个美国的小企业，如今已成为其最重要的商业问题。受通胀、持续的劳动力短缺以及供应链中断影响，小企业主对其未来的商业环境依然持悲观态度。”
约31%的小企业主称，通胀如今是其最大的商业挑战。 2月份以来，通胀率增长了5个百分点。
受此影响，小企业主对自家公司未来的乐观程度在3月持续下滑，降幅达到了2.4%，至93.2%。这是乐观指数连续第三个月低于其48年的平均水平98%。这项调查还发现，3月，预计未来业务会有所好转的企业主数量降至该调查面世48年以来的最低点。
出现这一现象的部分原因在于，众多企业依然面临着供应链问题所造成的困境，其中92%的企业主称，受损的供应链给他们带来了严重、中等或轻微影响。随着俄乌冲突愈演愈烈，中国新冠封锁越发严苛，这些问题可能会持续。
这里还存在劳动力市场紧张的问题。约47%的小企业主称，公司的岗位依然处于空缺状态，这一比例是其历史平均水平（23%）的两倍多。虽然存在招聘难的问题，但失业率仅有3.6%，而且近半数的企业主都称自己将提高薪资，以吸引新的雇员。
SurveyMonkey（提供市场洞见的云端调查工具）的高级研究科学家劳拉·朗斯基在本月初对美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）说：“我们目前在经济领域所拥有的所有可能信息源的每一个数据点都显示，招聘市场如今面临着巨大的挑战。失业率很低，但通胀很高，为了吸引员工，企业不得不调高薪资。”（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
A number of top investment banks are saying that the U.S. has reached peak inflation after consumer price increases notched highs not seen since December of 1981 last month.
The likes of Bank of America, UBS, and Morgan Stanley are saying inflation will begin to moderate through the end of the year as record-high gas prices cool and snarled supply chains rebound.
But small businesses aren’t on the same page, according to a new survey released Tuesday.
A record 72% of business owners surveyed in March said they plan on raising prices this year as inflation continues to cut into profits, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB)’s Small Business Optimism Index shows.
“Inflation has impacted small businesses throughout the country and is now their most important business problem,” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said of the report. “With inflation, an ongoing staffing shortage, and supply chain disruptions, small business owners remain pessimistic about their future business conditions.”
Some 31% of small business owners say inflation is now their most significant business challenge, an increase of 5 percentage points from February.
As a result, small business owners’ optimism about the future of their companies continued to fall in March, dropping 2.4 points to 93.2. That marks the third month in a row that the optimism index has fallen below its 48-year average of 98. And the number of owners in March expecting better business conditions ahead reached the lowest level in the history of the 48-year-old survey as well.
That's partly because so many small businesses are still feeling the crunch from supply chain issues, with 92% of owners saying they are experiencing a significant, moderate, or mild impact from broken supply chains. And the issues may persist as the war in Ukraine rages on and COVID-19 lockdowns in China become increasingly severe.
There’s also the matter of a tight labor market. Around 47% of small business owners reported they still can’t fill job openings at their companies, more than double the historical average of 23%. The hiring difficulties come despite an unemployment rate of just 3.6% and nearly half of all business owners reporting that they are raising compensation to help bring on new employees.
“Every data point from every possible source that we have on the economy right now is indicating that we’re in an incredibly challenging hiring market,” Laura Wronski, a senior manager of research science at SurveyMonkey, a cloud-based survey tool that offers market insights, told CNBC earlier this month. “The unemployment rate is low but inflation is high, so wages have to be high to attract workers.”
