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美国即将陷入经济衰退?一位前基金经理认为不可避免

Will Daniel
2022-04-14

库珀曼指出,现在要确保经济的“软着陆”,也就是在抑制通胀之时不至于陷入衰退,似乎已经成为了不可能完成的任务。

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越来越多的人预测经济衰退即将到来,其中包括众多华尔街巨头与投资银行人员。日前,亿万富豪投资者莱昂·库珀曼也加入了这一阵营。

随着美联储(Federal Reserve)试图通过加息来遏制通胀,这位前对冲基金经理认为经济衰退将在2023年到来。

4月5日,库珀曼接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时说:“我认为美联储已经完全错过了遏制通胀的时机,我们还有很多工作要做。在我看来,油价和美联储将让美国在2023年陷入经济衰退。虽然未必会发生,但我个人的猜测是这样的。”

今年3月,俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格飙升,美联储四年来首次将基准利率上调25个基点。现在,随着一些官员呼吁在明年进一步加快加息步伐,这家央行有意在下个月加息50个基点。

如今,油价已飙升至每桶100美元以上,通胀率创40年以来新高,受此影响,美联储的立场也发生了变化。3月发布的一份强有力的就业报告显示,美国新增了近50万个工作岗位,失业率下降至3.6%。这些数字也表明,“经济可能过热,美联储反应迟钝”的说法并非是空穴来风。

库珀曼批评了美联储去年在应对消费品价格上涨时的拖延行为。他指出,现在要确保经济的“软着陆”,也就是在抑制通胀之时不至于陷入衰退,似乎已经成为了不可能完成的任务。

库珀曼说:“我们已经提前透支了未来……我们的货币政策完全不对路,而且我觉得必须针对其中一些政策采取补救措施。我认为,困难时期即将来临。”据估计,库珀曼的身价达到了25亿美元。

库珀曼的确提到,通胀通常在短期内对股票是个利好,但他补充说,当美联储采取行动抑制消费价格上涨时,此举往往意味着灾难。

他说:“在投资者眼中,遏制通胀等同于遏制增长。”

库珀曼还表示,在市场风险上升的环境下,投资者也该秉持谨慎态度并保护其投资组合了。他说:“在遭遇熊市时,谁亏得最少,谁就是赢家。”

近几周,诸多亿万富翁投资者纷纷现身,发出了经济衰退的警告,库珀曼只是其中之一。亿万富翁卡尔·伊坎在今年3月对投资者发布了一则不详的警告:美国经济或将迎来经济衰退或“更糟糕的情形”。来自双线资本(DoubleLine Capital)的杰弗里·冈德拉奇称,通胀率在4月份会达到10%,继而迫使美联储以一种不可持续的速度提高利率,从而引发经济衰退。

甚至连投资银行也开始给出衰退预测,而华尔街的专业人士则刚开始感受到不断增长的通胀与油价带来的好日子。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在4月6日发给客户的纪要中称,该银行当前对美国经济的“基本看法”便包括在明年年底之前出现经济衰退。同时,高盛(Goldman Sachs)称美国2023年出现经济衰退的概率为38%。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

越来越多的人预测经济衰退即将到来,其中包括众多华尔街巨头与投资银行人员。日前,亿万富豪投资者莱昂·库珀曼也加入了这一阵营。

随着美联储(Federal Reserve)试图通过加息来遏制通胀,这位前对冲基金经理认为经济衰退将在2023年到来。

4月5日,库珀曼接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时说:“我认为美联储已经完全错过了遏制通胀的时机,我们还有很多工作要做。在我看来,油价和美联储将让美国在2023年陷入经济衰退。虽然未必会发生,但我个人的猜测是这样的。”

今年3月,俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格飙升,美联储四年来首次将基准利率上调25个基点。现在,随着一些官员呼吁在明年进一步加快加息步伐,这家央行有意在下个月加息50个基点。

如今,油价已飙升至每桶100美元以上,通胀率创40年以来新高,受此影响,美联储的立场也发生了变化。3月发布的一份强有力的就业报告显示,美国新增了近50万个工作岗位,失业率下降至3.6%。这些数字也表明,“经济可能过热,美联储反应迟钝”的说法并非是空穴来风。

库珀曼批评了美联储去年在应对消费品价格上涨时的拖延行为。他指出,现在要确保经济的“软着陆”,也就是在抑制通胀之时不至于陷入衰退,似乎已经成为了不可能完成的任务。

库珀曼说:“我们已经提前透支了未来……我们的货币政策完全不对路,而且我觉得必须针对其中一些政策采取补救措施。我认为,困难时期即将来临。”据估计,库珀曼的身价达到了25亿美元。

库珀曼的确提到,通胀通常在短期内对股票是个利好,但他补充说,当美联储采取行动抑制消费价格上涨时,此举往往意味着灾难。

他说:“在投资者眼中,遏制通胀等同于遏制增长。”

库珀曼还表示,在市场风险上升的环境下,投资者也该秉持谨慎态度并保护其投资组合了。他说:“在遭遇熊市时,谁亏得最少,谁就是赢家。”

近几周,诸多亿万富翁投资者纷纷现身,发出了经济衰退的警告,库珀曼只是其中之一。亿万富翁卡尔·伊坎在今年3月对投资者发布了一则不详的警告:美国经济或将迎来经济衰退或“更糟糕的情形”。来自双线资本(DoubleLine Capital)的杰弗里·冈德拉奇称,通胀率在4月份会达到10%,继而迫使美联储以一种不可持续的速度提高利率,从而引发经济衰退。

甚至连投资银行也开始给出衰退预测,而华尔街的专业人士则刚开始感受到不断增长的通胀与油价带来的好日子。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在4月6日发给客户的纪要中称,该银行当前对美国经济的“基本看法”便包括在明年年底之前出现经济衰退。同时,高盛(Goldman Sachs)称美国2023年出现经济衰退的概率为38%。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman added his name this week to a growing list of Wall Street titans and investment banks predicting a recession.

The former hedge fund manager said he sees a recession coming in 2023 as the Federal Reserve attempts to curb rising inflation by raising interest rates.

"I think the Fed has totally missed it, and I think we have a lot of wood to chop," Cooperman told CNBC on Tuesday. "I would think the price of oil or the Fed would push us into a recession in 2023. It's not written in stone, but that would be my guess."

In March, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years by a quarter-point as Russia’s Ukraine invasion sent commodity prices soaring. Now, the central bank is whetting its appetite for a half a point hike next month as some officials call for an even faster pace of rate increases through next year.

The changing stance from the Fed comes as oil prices have surged to over $100 per barrel and inflation rates have moved to highs not seen in four decades. A strong jobs report in March, which showed the U.S. adding nearly half a million jobs and the unemployment rate falling to just 3.6%, also lent credibility to arguments the economy may be overheated and that the Fed has been slow to act.

Cooperman criticized the Federal Reserve’s delayed response to rising consumer prices over the past year, saying it now may be impossible to ensure a “soft landing” for the economy—in which inflation is curbed without creating a recession.

“We’ve borrowed from the future…We’ve had totally inappropriate monetary policies, and I think we have to make up for some of this,” said Cooperman, who is worth an estimated $2.5 billion. “I think we’re in store for a difficult period.”

Cooperman did note that inflation has typically been kind to stocks in the near term, but he added that when the Fed acts to combat rising consumer prices, it often spells disaster.

“Investors understand curbing inflation is tantamount to curbing growth,” he said.

Cooperman added that it's time for investors to be cautious and protect their portfolios amid rising market risks, saying: “In a bear market, he who loses least, wins.”

Cooperman is just one of many billionaire investors who have come out in recent weeks warning of a recession. Billionaire Carl Icahn issued an ominous warning to investors in March, saying a recession “or even worse” could be ahead for the U.S. economy. And DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach said he sees inflation hitting 10% in April, forcing the Fed to raise rates at an unsustainable pace, thereby instigating a recession.

Even investment banks are beginning to make recession predictions as Wall Street starts to feel the heat of rising inflation and elevated oil prices. Deutsche Bank said its “base case” for the U.S. economy now includes a recession by the end of next year in a note to clients on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs said it sees a 38% chance of a U.S. recession through 2023.

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