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美国迎来近40年最高通胀,股票、黄金、虚拟币市场大幅震荡

美国迎来近40年最高通胀,股票、黄金、虚拟币市场大幅震荡

 TRISTAN BOVE 2022-02-18
奥密克戎病毒严重影响了全球制造业和供应链,是高通胀的主因。

由于上周四上午美国最新发布的通胀数据高于预期,美股、黄金和虚拟币市场都出现了大幅震荡。

上周四,美国发布了今年1月份的消费者价格指数(CPI),该指数也是衡量通胀最可靠的指标。而今年1月份的美国CPI显示,美国的通胀已经达到了1982年以来的最高水平。

CPI数据显示,去年以来,美国的物价涨幅已经超过了7.5%,超出了大多数经济学家的预期。虽然如果以月为单位来看,美国的通胀可能会显得相对温和一些,而且美国的通胀可能在几个月前就已探顶,但市场却仍然表现出了恐慌。

“40年来最高通胀”的恐慌心理必然会造成资本市场的震荡。现在就让我们看看美股、黄金和虚拟币市场分别有哪些反应。

股市

美国三大股指上周四上午齐齐下跌。其中又以以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌最为严重。在CPI数据发布后,科技股遭到大量抛售,纳斯达克指数下跌了近2%。道琼斯和标普500指数也分别下跌了0.3%和0.9%。

在通胀数据公布后,股市反应最差的就是那些大型科技公司。上周四上午,谷歌母公司Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊的股价均下跌超过1%。

黄金

黄金是一项公认的抗通胀资产,不过上周四上午,黄金价格也下跌了0.37%。

人们之所以会买黄金,就是因为黄金的供应量有限,在经济不稳定时期具有优良的保值属性,所以长期以来人们都相信黄金能对冲高通胀。但这次金价的下跌,则可能反映了人们对美元未来价值的担忧。

不过到了午间收盘时,黄金的对冲通胀属性又体现了出来,金价基本又回升到了原点。

虚拟币

虚拟币也是一种具有对冲通胀属性的资产。所以在CPI数据发布后,虚拟币市场也同样出现了波动。比特币在几分钟内就下跌了1000美元,以太币也在当天上午下跌了4.5%。不过在几个小时后,比特币的币值止跌回升,并且小涨0.8%。

股市热点

在CPI数据发布后,也有个别逆势上涨的股票。比如迪士尼刚刚发布了第四季度财报,盈利数据特别可观,所以上周四上午大涨5%以上。迪士尼在财报中预测,该公司的业绩和流媒体服务用户数量将持续强势增长。(而相比之下,迪士尼的主要竞争对手Netflix上季度的用户数则增长不足,导致其股价受挫。)

美国迎来近40年最高通胀的一个重要原因,是奥密克戎病毒严重影响了全球制造业和供应链。美国1月份的CPI数据显示,美国的食品、汽油、汽车和房租等价格普遍上涨,从而加重了普通老百姓的生活负担。

预计美联储将很快就今年加息的次数和幅度做出决定。虽然美联储衡量通胀的指标是个人消费支出指数(Personal Consumption expenditure),而不是CPI,但由于此次的CPI指数高得令人震惊,它仍然有可能影响美联储的决策。

上周四上午,就在CPI数据公布后不久,美国总统拜登发表声明,承认物价上涨给普通美国家庭带来了压力。

拜登表示:“我们正在使用所有可用的工具来解决通胀问题。虽然今天美国人的衣食住行都出现了较大压力,但现在也有迹象表明,我们将度过眼前的难关。”

拜登强调,今年1月份的就业数据是十分令人鼓舞的,这说明经济正在缓慢恢复。他指出,鉴于美国即将走入低失业率和工资增长的正循环,加上一些政策措施即将出台,美国的通胀压力有望很快得到缓解。

“虽然今天的CPI指数很高,但有专家预测,到2022年底,美国的通胀将显著降低。”他说。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

由于上周四上午美国最新发布的通胀数据高于预期,美股、黄金和虚拟币市场都出现了大幅震荡。

上周四,美国发布了今年1月份的消费者价格指数(CPI),该指数也是衡量通胀最可靠的指标。而今年1月份的美国CPI显示,美国的通胀已经达到了1982年以来的最高水平。

CPI数据显示,去年以来,美国的物价涨幅已经超过了7.5%,超出了大多数经济学家的预期。虽然如果以月为单位来看,美国的通胀可能会显得相对温和一些,而且美国的通胀可能在几个月前就已探顶,但市场却仍然表现出了恐慌。

“40年来最高通胀”的恐慌心理必然会造成资本市场的震荡。现在就让我们看看美股、黄金和虚拟币市场分别有哪些反应。

股市

美国三大股指上周四上午齐齐下跌。其中又以以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌最为严重。在CPI数据发布后,科技股遭到大量抛售,纳斯达克指数下跌了近2%。道琼斯和标普500指数也分别下跌了0.3%和0.9%。

在通胀数据公布后,股市反应最差的就是那些大型科技公司。上周四上午,谷歌母公司Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊的股价均下跌超过1%。

黄金

黄金是一项公认的抗通胀资产,不过上周四上午,黄金价格也下跌了0.37%。

人们之所以会买黄金,就是因为黄金的供应量有限,在经济不稳定时期具有优良的保值属性,所以长期以来人们都相信黄金能对冲高通胀。但这次金价的下跌,则可能反映了人们对美元未来价值的担忧。

不过到了午间收盘时,黄金的对冲通胀属性又体现了出来,金价基本又回升到了原点。

虚拟币

虚拟币也是一种具有对冲通胀属性的资产。所以在CPI数据发布后,虚拟币市场也同样出现了波动。比特币在几分钟内就下跌了1000美元,以太币也在当天上午下跌了4.5%。不过在几个小时后,比特币的币值止跌回升,并且小涨0.8%。

股市热点

在CPI数据发布后,也有个别逆势上涨的股票。比如迪士尼刚刚发布了第四季度财报,盈利数据特别可观,所以上周四上午大涨5%以上。迪士尼在财报中预测,该公司的业绩和流媒体服务用户数量将持续强势增长。(而相比之下,迪士尼的主要竞争对手Netflix上季度的用户数则增长不足,导致其股价受挫。)

美国迎来近40年最高通胀的一个重要原因,是奥密克戎病毒严重影响了全球制造业和供应链。美国1月份的CPI数据显示,美国的食品、汽油、汽车和房租等价格普遍上涨,从而加重了普通老百姓的生活负担。

预计美联储将很快就今年加息的次数和幅度做出决定。虽然美联储衡量通胀的指标是个人消费支出指数(Personal Consumption expenditure),而不是CPI,但由于此次的CPI指数高得令人震惊,它仍然有可能影响美联储的决策。

上周四上午,就在CPI数据公布后不久,美国总统拜登发表声明,承认物价上涨给普通美国家庭带来了压力。

拜登表示:“我们正在使用所有可用的工具来解决通胀问题。虽然今天美国人的衣食住行都出现了较大压力,但现在也有迹象表明,我们将度过眼前的难关。”

拜登强调,今年1月份的就业数据是十分令人鼓舞的,这说明经济正在缓慢恢复。他指出,鉴于美国即将走入低失业率和工资增长的正循环,加上一些政策措施即将出台,美国的通胀压力有望很快得到缓解。

“虽然今天的CPI指数很高,但有专家预测,到2022年底,美国的通胀将显著降低。”他说。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

Higher-than-expected inflation numbers shook the markets Thursday morning, creating volatility for stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.

January’s consumer price index, often considered the most reliable measure of inflation, revealed Thursday that inflation in the U.S. is at its highest level since 1982.

Prices have climbed over 7.5% since last year, the CPI showed, a bigger jump than most economists expected. Although the month-to-month inflation rate painted a more muted picture, and it’s likely that inflation peaked months ago, markets are acting spooked.

Here are the major assets that either fell or jumped, sometimes both, as the markets reacted to the worst inflation in 40 years.

Stocks

All three major U.S. stock indexes were down on Thursday morning. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was the worst hit, down nearly 2% as a flurry of tech stocks sold off following the CPI’s release. The Dow was down 0.3%, and the S&P 500 was down 0.9%.

Mega-cap tech stocks fared the worst after the inflation data came out. Google owner Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon all fell more than 1% Thursday morning.

Gold

Gold, an asset that is often used as a hedge against inflation, also fell in the morning by 0.37%.

Gold has long been considered a safe bet during high inflation, a “hedge,” because of its limited supply and reputation as a safe haven during economic instability. A fall like this likely reflects fears about the future value of the dollar.

By noontime, though, the inflation hedge seemed fully on, with the price per ounce recovering to virtual breakeven.

Crypto

Another supposed inflation hedge, crypto, also fluctuated after the CPI report was released. Bitcoin dropped by $1,000 per token in minutes, and Ethereum fell by 4.5% in the morning. In the hours after the initial release, however, Bitcoin rallied and was able to turn its drop into a 0.8% gain.

Bright spots in stocks

Some stocks, however, surged after the latest inflation numbers. Disney, coming off the heels of an especially profitable fourth-quarter earnings report, saw its stock rise over 5% Thursday morning. In its earnings report, Disney predicted robust growth and a sustained increase in subscribers for its streaming service, avoiding the fate that befell rival Netflix’s low subscriber count and poor earnings report last quarter.

The Omicron variant has disrupted global manufacturing and supply chains, a big reason behind the four-decade high inflation metrics the U.S. has experienced recently. The data reported in this month’s CPI show increases in the price of common goods including food, gas, cars, and rent, putting a burden on the average consumer.

The Fed is expected to make a decision soon on how many times and by how much it intends to hike up interest rates this year to counter inflation. While the Fed uses its own index, Personal Consumption Expenditures, instead of CPI to measure inflation, the eye-watering sums of this month’s CPI are likely to influence the central bank’s decisions.

On Thursday morning, shortly after the CPI’s release, President Biden released a statement acknowledging the distress higher prices were causing American families.

“We have been using every tool at our disposal, and while today is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched in ways that create real stress at the kitchen table, there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge,” the president said.

Biden highlighted the promising January jobs report as a sign that things were slowly getting back to normal, citing low unemployment and wage growth, and was hopeful that forthcoming policy actions could soon alleviate the pressure.

“While today’s report is elevated, forecasters continue to project inflation easing substantially by the end of 2022,” he said.

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