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一年来价格飙升45%,通胀正在改变二手车市场规则

Tristan Bove
2022-02-17

新车难求造成二手车需求猛增,进而推动其价格上涨。

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想买二手车吗?首先,但愿你能找到这个市场。而且就算找到了,你也得开始存钱了,因为现在二手车价格已经达到前所未有的高点。

汽车交易网站Cars.com的数据显示,2022年1月美国二手车平均价格约为2.6万美元,比一年前上涨45%。

供给不足,特别是半导体和微芯片短缺,正在影响新车产量。新车难求造成二手车需求猛增,进而推动其价格上涨。

经济中的持续通胀已造成多种常用商品明显涨价。二手车、燃料和汽油一年来的价格升幅都超过40%。

2020年以来,汽车行业一直缺“芯”,原因是新冠疫情促使人们大量增购智能手机和微波炉等各种各样的电子设备,而这些电子设备都需要芯片。受此影响,福特汽车(Ford)设在芝加哥的制造厂上周三被迫停工,近5000员工暂时休假。同时,芯片不足引发的停工造成丰田汽车(Toyota)2021年第四季度利润下降21%。

Cars.com助理主编凯尔西·梅斯对《财富》杂志表示:“新车买家转向二手车造成二手车涨价,而且过去12个月的涨势相当稳定。”

另一汽车交易网站TrueCar提供的二手车价格上涨数据和Cars.com类似。TrueCar称,与一年前相比,二手车价格上升了41%左右。

TrueCar首席行业分析师尼克·伍拉德对《财富》杂志表示:“据我所知,这创下了纪录,千真万确。”

同时,新车价格也在上涨。Cars.com的数据显示,新车均价上升了8%,达到38617美元,新车库存则下降58%。

这样的困难情况造成汽车销售市场倒挂。由于难以买到某些新车型,同类旧款二手车的价格已经超过了它们的最初售价。梅斯举例说,一些旧款SUV的售价已经高于新车。

他说:“老话说开车离店,跌价两成。现在开车离店,价格可能根本跌不了那么多,实际上或许还会涨一点儿。”

伍拉德和梅斯都认为,要想让二手车价格回到正常水平,就得增加芯片供应并提高新车产量。但他们都不相信很快就能会出现这样的情况。

梅斯说:“就整体供应而言,情况仍会很难。我觉得要经过整个2022年,甚至可能要到2023年才会看到局势真的得到扭转。”

伍拉德略微乐观一些,他预测2022年晚些时候情况就会发生较大变化。

他说:“2022年下半年新车供需就会有所改善,我觉得那个时候二手车价格就会开始下降,”原因是美联储已表示今后几个月将考虑提高利率,而这可能会带动需求下降。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

想买二手车吗?首先,但愿你能找到这个市场。而且就算找到了,你也得开始存钱了,因为现在二手车价格已经达到前所未有的高点。

汽车交易网站Cars.com的数据显示,2022年1月美国二手车平均价格约为2.6万美元,比一年前上涨45%。

供给不足,特别是半导体和微芯片短缺,正在影响新车产量。新车难求造成二手车需求猛增,进而推动其价格上涨。

经济中的持续通胀已造成多种常用商品明显涨价。二手车、燃料和汽油一年来的价格升幅都超过40%。

2020年以来,汽车行业一直缺“芯”,原因是新冠疫情促使人们大量增购智能手机和微波炉等各种各样的电子设备,而这些电子设备都需要芯片。受此影响,福特汽车(Ford)设在芝加哥的制造厂上周三被迫停工,近5000员工暂时休假。同时,芯片不足引发的停工造成丰田汽车(Toyota)2021年第四季度利润下降21%。

Cars.com助理主编凯尔西·梅斯对《财富》杂志表示:“新车买家转向二手车造成二手车涨价,而且过去12个月的涨势相当稳定。”

另一汽车交易网站TrueCar提供的二手车价格上涨数据和Cars.com类似。TrueCar称,与一年前相比,二手车价格上升了41%左右。

TrueCar首席行业分析师尼克·伍拉德对《财富》杂志表示:“据我所知,这创下了纪录,千真万确。”

同时,新车价格也在上涨。Cars.com的数据显示,新车均价上升了8%,达到38617美元,新车库存则下降58%。

这样的困难情况造成汽车销售市场倒挂。由于难以买到某些新车型,同类旧款二手车的价格已经超过了它们的最初售价。梅斯举例说,一些旧款SUV的售价已经高于新车。

他说:“老话说开车离店,跌价两成。现在开车离店,价格可能根本跌不了那么多,实际上或许还会涨一点儿。”

伍拉德和梅斯都认为,要想让二手车价格回到正常水平,就得增加芯片供应并提高新车产量。但他们都不相信很快就能会出现这样的情况。

梅斯说:“就整体供应而言,情况仍会很难。我觉得要经过整个2022年,甚至可能要到2023年才会看到局势真的得到扭转。”

伍拉德略微乐观一些,他预测2022年晚些时候情况就会发生较大变化。

他说:“2022年下半年新车供需就会有所改善,我觉得那个时候二手车价格就会开始下降,”原因是美联储已表示今后几个月将考虑提高利率,而这可能会带动需求下降。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

In the market for a used car? First, good luck finding one. But even if you do, you better start saving up because used cars have never been more expensive than they are now.

Used car prices rose 45% to an average of nearly $26,000 in January compared to a year ago, according to the online automotive marketplace Cars.com.

Supply shortages, specifically semiconductors and microchips, are hurting the production of new cars. That scarcity has created surging demand for used cars, driving up their prices.

The economy's ongoing inflation has caused the price of several common commodities to spike significantly. The prices of used cars, fuel, and gasoline have all gone up over 40% since last year.

The automotive industry has been grappling with the chip shortage since 2020, when the pandemic caused a surge in buying of all sorts of electronic devices that require them, including smartphones and microwaves. In response, Ford was forced to halt production at its Chicago manufacturing plant on Wednesday, placing nearly 5,000 employees on temporary leave, while production pauses at Toyota due to a lack of chips caused the company’s profits to dip 21% in the last three months of 2021.

“New-car-shoppers-turned-used are creating this amplification of pricing on the used car front, and it's been winding up pretty steadily over the past 12 months,” Kelsey Mays, assistant managing editor at Cars.com, tells Fortune.

TrueCar, another online car marketplace, provided similar data as Cars.com about higher used car prices. It said that used cars are around 41% more expensive now than a year ago.

“This is a record, to my knowledge,” said Nick Woolard, lead industry analyst at TrueCar, told Fortune. “There’s no way it isn’t.”

Meanwhile, prices for new cars are also up. The average cost was up 8% to $38,617, according to Cars.com, while inventory for those was down 58%.

The difficult conditions have led to an upside-down market for car sales. Some new cars models are so hard to get that older used versions of the same cars are selling for higher than their original sticker price. For example, some older versions of SUVs are selling for higher used than new, according to Mays.

“There’s an old adage that when you drive a car off a lot, it's worth 20% less. Right now, when you drive a car off the lot, it might not be worth that much less at all, it might actually be worth a few dollars more,” he said.

Both Woolard and Mays agree that what needs to happen for prices to return to normal is for chip supplies to increase and new car production to pick up. But neither of them is confident that this will happen anytime soon.

“In terms of broader affordability, it's going to continue to be a slog,” Mays said. “I think we're going to continue through 2022, possibly into 2023 to really see this thing unwind.”

Woolard was slightly more optimistic, seeing a bigger readjustment in the cards for later in the year.

“In the second half of 2022, we should start to see new car levels balance out a little bit better with demand, and that is the moment where I think you'll start to see used car prices start declining,” he said, citing the effects of the higher interest rates the Fed has signaled to be considering over the next few months, which could bring down demand.

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