达利欧警告：2024年大选将导致美国内战
对冲基金亿万富翁雷·达利欧（Ray Dalio）向美国人宣布了令人震惊的信息：美国正迅速走向内战。是的，你没看错。
上周四，桥水公司（Bridgewater）联合首席投资官兼董事长达利欧在领英（LinkedIn）发帖警告称，巨额赤字、高税收和高通胀，再加上普遍的财富不平等以及华盛顿党派之争空前激烈，都是导致内战爆发的因素，“或多或少有些暴力，”他说。
当外部环境对严重分裂的美国形成挑战时，“就是特别危险的时期，”达利欧写道。“我认为现在美国正处于这样的时期。”
他说，民粹主义和极端主义抬头，加上左右翼争斗不息，都是未来出现战争冲突的典型标志。政治极端分子认为尊重法律没有夺取胜利重要，内部冲突不断强化。达利欧补充称，2021年1月6日，唐纳德·特朗普的支持者就曾冲进美国国会试图推翻总统选举的结果，造成五人死亡，多人受伤。
达利欧正推广自己关于经济史和国家兴衰的新书，也阐述了内部混乱和秩序建立的六个阶段。刚开始是新政府成立，随后是和平与繁荣时期。达利欧表示，最终过度支出以及财富和权力积累会给整个体系造成压力，出现“财务状况糟糕和冲突激化”，这正是当前所处的阶段。他说，下一步是内战和革命，然后回到第一阶段。
“历史经验表明，贫富差距巨大且经济状况糟糕时加税和削减开支，都是发生内战或某种革命的重要标志。”他说。
长期以来，达利欧一直表示很担心收入平等之类问题，呼吁对富人加税。之前，他曾为已故共和党参议员约翰·麦凯恩竞选捐款，但近年来再也没捐过。
达利欧预测，2022年中期选举中温和派将失去席位，两党极端分子和民粹主义者将取而代之。他还预测，最高法院的裁决争议将更大，对权力造成重大考验。他说，2024年总统选举时，将出现“右翼民粹主义者和左翼民粹主义者的斗争，双方都不愿接受失败。”
“一系列事件均符合导致内战的典型路径，”他说。
虽然达利欧表示，他预料的内战看起来可能与之前的内战很不一样，但不可避免会出现死亡，就像去年1月6日特朗普支持者暴力冲击国会事件一样。
“陷入糟糕内战最明显的标志是有人死去，”他写道。“历史表明，冲突中开始有人死亡时，即便死亡人数很少，情况也会越发恶化，因为极端情绪和报复会滋长更多争斗。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
对冲基金亿万富翁雷·达利欧（Ray Dalio）向美国人宣布了令人震惊的信息：美国正迅速走向内战。是的，你没看错。
上周四，桥水公司（Bridgewater）联合首席投资官兼董事长达利欧在领英（LinkedIn）发帖警告称，巨额赤字、高税收和高通胀，再加上普遍的财富不平等以及华盛顿党派之争空前激烈，都是导致内战爆发的因素，“或多或少有些暴力，”他说。
当外部环境对严重分裂的美国形成挑战时，“就是特别危险的时期，”达利欧写道。“我认为现在美国正处于这样的时期。”
他说，民粹主义和极端主义抬头，加上左右翼争斗不息，都是未来出现战争冲突的典型标志。政治极端分子认为尊重法律没有夺取胜利重要，内部冲突不断强化。达利欧补充称，2021年1月6日，唐纳德·特朗普的支持者就曾冲进美国国会试图推翻总统选举的结果，造成五人死亡，多人受伤。
达利欧正推广自己关于经济史和国家兴衰的新书，也阐述了内部混乱和秩序建立的六个阶段。刚开始是新政府成立，随后是和平与繁荣时期。达利欧表示，最终过度支出以及财富和权力积累会给整个体系造成压力，出现“财务状况糟糕和冲突激化”，这正是当前所处的阶段。他说，下一步是内战和革命，然后回到第一阶段。
“历史经验表明，贫富差距巨大且经济状况糟糕时加税和削减开支，都是发生内战或某种革命的重要标志。”他说。
长期以来，达利欧一直表示很担心收入平等之类问题，呼吁对富人加税。之前，他曾为已故共和党参议员约翰·麦凯恩竞选捐款，但近年来再也没捐过。
达利欧预测，2022年中期选举中温和派将失去席位，两党极端分子和民粹主义者将取而代之。他还预测，最高法院的裁决争议将更大，对权力造成重大考验。他说，2024年总统选举时，将出现“右翼民粹主义者和左翼民粹主义者的斗争，双方都不愿接受失败。”
“一系列事件均符合导致内战的典型路径，”他说。
虽然达利欧表示，他预料的内战看起来可能与之前的内战很不一样，但不可避免会出现死亡，就像去年1月6日特朗普支持者暴力冲击国会事件一样。
“陷入糟糕内战最明显的标志是有人死去，”他写道。“历史表明，冲突中开始有人死亡时，即便死亡人数很少，情况也会越发恶化，因为极端情绪和报复会滋长更多争斗。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has a jolting message for Americans: The U.S. is hurtling toward civil war. Yes, you read that right.
The co–chief investment officer and chairman of Bridgewater Associates warned in a LinkedIn post on Thursday that large deficits, high taxes, and high inflation combined with widespread wealth inequality and unprecedented Washington partisanship will lead to civil war, “though these fights can be more or less violent,” he said.
When foreign powers like China and Russia challenge a country dealing with high levels of disagreement, “it is an especially risky period,” wrote Dalio. “I believe we are in this period now.”
An increase in populism and extremism, plus fights between the left and right, are classic indicators of future warlike conflict, he said. Political extremists see respecting the law as secondary to winning, and internal conflicts become self-reinforcing, added Dalio, alluding to Jan. 6, 2021, when supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the outcome of the presidential election, resulting in the deaths of five people and numerous injuries.
Dalio, who is promoting his new book about economic histories and the rise and fall of nations, also laid out what he described as six stages of internal disorder and order. It begins with the creation of a new government followed by periods of peace and prosperity. Eventually, excess spending and the accumulation of wealth and power weigh on the system, leading to “bad financial conditions and intense conflict,” the stage we're in now, according to Dalio. The next step, he says, is civil war and revolution, which leads back to step one.
“History shows that raising taxes and cutting spending when there are large wealth gaps and bad economic conditions, more than anything else, has been a leading indicator of civil wars or revolutions of some type,” he said.
Dalio has long voiced concern about issues such as income equality and has called for higher tax rates for the wealthy. In the past, he's made campaign contributions to late Republican Sen. John McCain, but he has made no contributions in recent years.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Dalio predicts moderates will lose seats while extremists and populists in both parties will gain them. He also predicts that Supreme Court rulings will become more contentious, leading to big tests of power. By the 2024 presidential election, he said, there will be a “battle between the populists of the right and the populists of the left in which neither side will accept losing."
"Such a sequence of events will be consistent with the typical path that leads to civil war," he said.
And while Dalio says this civil war could look very different from previous ones, it’s not unfathomable that people will die, just as they did on Jan. 6.
“The most obvious clear marker of going into a bad civil war is people dying,” he wrote. “History shows that when people start dying in conflicts—even just a few of them—that one expects much worse because then emotions and the need for retributions fuel more fighting.”
