《财富》水晶球：2022年大预言

To launch us into the New Year, we asked our readers to gaze into their crystal ball and tell us what comes next.

We asked, and you delivered. I’ve spent the last week or so parsing through and thinking over hundreds of quick takes, analytical predictions, and insight-induced hunches. Our readers are expecting dramatic change in 2022. Here’s what this year may have in store, in your words:

E-COMMERCE: NFT time

“In a world of digital consumption that has only been accelerated by the pandemic, consumer brands focused on health wellness will integrate NFTs to 1) incentivize healthy behavior 2) reward loyalty and 3) build brand equity. There will be subscription-based membership models utilizing NFTs to provide exclusive access or a first look at new product drops as well as products and services leveraging NFTs for VIP status that can unlock giveaways, rewards or pricing,” Lisa Blau, founding partner, Able Partners

“The Amazon Third Party Seller Ecosystem will raise over $15 billion of capital,” Ali Hamed, general partner, Crossbeam Venture Partners

DATA: Privacy is king

“In 2022, we’ll see more Big Tech companies introduce new privacy features in an attempt to appease consumers and policymakers. The same companies introducing these changes will likely become more vulnerable as consumers hold them accountable for protecting user data,” Steffen Schebesta, CEO North America, Sendinblue

“Today 55% of F1000 enterprises have Chief Data Officers. Over the next 3 years, it’ll approach 100%,” Derek Zanutto, general partner, CapitalG

CRYPTO AND BLOCKCHAIN: All eyes on JPMorgan Chase

“Jamie Dimon will turn around and publicly support Bitcoin and start providing crypto custody solutions for their clients,” Edith Yeung, general partner, Race Capital

“In 2022, Amazon and/or Walmart will make a splashy $2.5B+ crypto acquisition. Among this crypto company’s core competencies will be online crypto payment processing and facilitation (i.e. a “Stripe for Crypto”),” Addie Lerner, founder and managing partner, Avid Ventures

“Wages will become visible via blockchain,” Joe Miller

“2022 will likely see a continuation of the 2021 trend of an increasing number of companies adding Bitcoin and other digital assets to their balance sheets, and that will result in traditional financial firms rushing to support these investments through their treasury departments and other business lines that will need to be able to support crypto assets,” Leah Wald, CEO at Valkyrie Funds

CYBERSECURITY: Crime on the rise

“Rogue states and bad actors enjoying the payoff from their successful recent exploits will become even more sophisticated, capable and dangerous adversaries. Expect the average cost of cybercrime to double for enterprises in 2022. Unfortunately, we predict 3-5 massive data breaches collectively compromising data on 1 billion individuals. The fraud will cost these companies hundreds of millions of dollars in direct losses and billions in long-term reputational damage,” James Luo, vice president, CapitalG

“Buy now, pay later fraud will skyrocket. BNPL exploded in 2021, with fintechs and banks alike offering consumers a more flexible alternative to traditional forms of financing and payment plans like layaway… In the year ahead, I expect BNPL to become an increasingly popular target for fraudsters. From false account signups to account takeover attacks using stolen personal information from the Dark Web, fraudsters will leverage loopholes in the application process to take advantage of the surge in BNPL payments to steal items ranging from fast food to big ticket items like electronics and furniture, leaving the vendor and the consumer to pay the price,” Brittany Allen, Trust and Safety Architect, Sift

“In 2022, expect greater demand for security from Boards, investors, customers, and employees for organizations to close the gap between cyber and physical security efforts. Companies will be thinking about how all actions they take keep people safe–from vaccine mandates to online security and everything in between–are connected and need to work together holistically,” Juliette Kayyem, former assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

CREATOR ECONOMY: More money, more content

“The value of the creator economy will double in 2022,” Mike Donoghue, CEO and co-founder, Subtext

“If every company was poised to become a fintech company in 2020, every creator is poised to need a fintech company and to become a business in 2022. There are 50M+ creators out there looking to turn their fun, after-hours passions into a money-making company and so much of the stack for these creators is still missing,” Jesse Middleton, general partner, Flybridge

“In 2022, corporations will choose synthetic video (often augmented with digital avatars) to produce ‘non-critical’ video assets—devouring once reliable demand for traditional video production,” Jeremy Kaufmann, principal, Scale Venture Partners

HEALTHCARE: Easier2pay

“Industries like healthcare that have long lagged behind in terms of technological advancement will start to catch up as they adopt automation: Healthcare will catch up in AI, because the pandemic forced many companies to test drive these solutions, and what they found is that today’s platforms are sophisticated enough to deal with the messy, human-generated data that’s endemic to this industry.” Dr. Bob Lindner, CTO, veda

“As practices offer more digital payment features, such as Card on File, online payments, text to pay, and QR codes, patients become more prone to pay. This also allows practices to replace outdated processes that involve manual data entry, paper-based bills, and phone-based follow-up calls with terminal-less, contactless payment options that modernize offices … We expect to see greater adoption of payment plans in the healthcare space as more patients are able to manage their financial expenses better by paying in affordable installments.” Michelle Dowling, VP of Marketing, Rectangle Health

CLIMATE: Dragons unite

“2022 will reveal the world’s first Climate-tech startup ‘dragon’ (a private startup valued at $12B+),” Brian Walsh, Head of WIND Ventures

“A blockchain collective will buy a coal company in order to shut it down,” Andy Frank, president, Sealed

“In 2022, VCs will widen their investment focus to include solutions that enable climate adaptation, alongside mitigation … Innovations like drought-resistant plant seeds, fireproof homes, and energy-efficient HVAC will see increased demand as the need to battle climate change today becomes more acute,” Julia Reichelstein, Investor, Piva Capital

PROPERTY/FARMING: Non-transitory

“Crop shortages will lead to a spike in prices, creating widespread inflation fears leading to a huge bond selloff and other high spec assets like Bitcoin, etc.” Ed Amberger, HCM

“We will see further acceleration into investments in proptech, which last year decisively became one of the largest, highest-performing and most compelling categories of the venture capital markets,” Brendan Wallace, Co-Founder & Managing Partner, Fifth Wall

VR/META: Data meets virtual world

“The biggest trend will be the AR/VR space, especially with Facebook/Meta continuing to heavily invest. But, the topic that will arise from this trend is the privacy implications of these virtual environment[s] created by companies who have been liberal with how they share and sell customer data,” Paige Leidig, NetBase Quid

“The ‘metaverse”’is not a new concept. But as the pandemic continues to trudge on and more organizations turn to digital-native and digital-first platforms to fuel everyday communication, work, life and commerce experiences, the identity landscape will continue to grow exponentially – opening up new gateways and threat vectors to potential bad actors,” Larry Chinski, VP of Global IAM Strategy, One Identity

GEOGRAPHY: The Great Departure from Silicon Valley

“2022 is going to be the year that Africa breaks out. With all of the investment $ looking for places to land it is just a matter of time before all of the talent in Africa is discovered and investment follows,” Jules Walker, senior director, KPMG

“Regions outside Silicon Valley will continue to grow. The two I am most excited about: LA (Southern Cal): A terrific mix of available financing, creative talent (highest density of artists, musicians, creators, etc), and more and more entrepreneurs are moving to So Cal for the quality of life (beaches, sun, etc). Lisbon, Portugal: High percentage of English speakers, Very low tax basis, beautiful area, high quality of life,” Luke Pappas, Principal, New Enterprise Associates

“Latin America stays red hot. Investment activity in Latin America has exploded in the last couple of years, and shows no sign of slowing in 2022 … More services firms will expand into Latin America to build out nearshore delivery centers, taking advantage of the proximity, lower cost labor and access to an increasing number of STEM graduates. As LATAM interest picks up and more capital enters the region, the competition for tech talent in the major hubs will lift wages, but not to the extent of other markets,” Lisa Burton, Partner, Tercera