美国木材零售价即将大涨，是时候入手了吗？
5月，木材期货价格涨至史上最高的每千板英尺1,711美元。但夏季木材期货价格下跌，8月跌至454美元。近几个月，木材期货价格却开启了新一轮上涨。截至周五，木材期货价格上涨至1,024美元，较8月的最低点上涨了126%。这已经导致批发“现货”市场价（731美元）上涨，最终将导致计划自行改造房屋的消费者从家得宝（Home Depot）等零售商购买木材的价格上涨。
美国建材批发商Sherwood Lumber的CEO安迪·古德曼表示：“随着现货价格按照与期货价格接近的幅度上涨，零售价格也将快速上涨。我们已经听说有许多还没有做好准备的改造项目已经提货，只是为了保证能够按目前的价格交割，以避免未来价格上涨的风险。如果你在明年第一季度需要木材，并且现在有经济能力，那就没有必要等待。”
木材电商公司MaterialsXchange的CEO迈克尔·维斯内夫斯基认同这种观点。他表示，如果消费者计划开展DIY项目，他们可能希望现在购买木制品。
这轮价格上涨的原因与上一轮不同。上一轮价格上涨只是因为供不应求。在疫情封锁期间，木材产量下降，无法满足疫情期间住宅建设和DIY热增加的需求。随着锯木厂产量增加和消费者因为木材价格过高放弃DIY房屋改造，当时供应不足的问题最终得到了解决。
但本轮价格上涨的原因主要是供应链问题，而不是供应不足。作为北美木材主产地，不列颠哥伦比亚省上个月的降雨量创历史记录，引发的洪水和泥石流导致该省的公路、桥梁和铁路封闭。这导致木材更难运送至加拿大最大的港口温哥华港。当然，供需关系也产生了一定影响。随着今年夏天木材价格下跌，之前放弃DIY的消费者重新回到市场，而房地产市场火爆则让房产商开足了马力。此外，美国太平洋西北地区和不列颠哥伦比亚省严重的野火季，使加福林业（Canfor）等主要木材生产商不得不在夏季和秋季削减产量。
好消息是，不列颠哥伦比亚省的部分公路和铁路逐步恢复运营，开始有更多木材进入市场。但有业内人士告诉《财富》杂志，恢复正常仍需要一些时间。与此同时，维斯内夫斯基表示，他并不确定木材期货的未来走势。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
5月，木材期货价格涨至史上最高的每千板英尺1,711美元。但夏季木材期货价格下跌，8月跌至454美元。近几个月，木材期货价格却开启了新一轮上涨。截至周五，木材期货价格上涨至1,024美元，较8月的最低点上涨了126%。这已经导致批发“现货”市场价（731美元）上涨，最终将导致计划自行改造房屋的消费者从家得宝（Home Depot）等零售商购买木材的价格上涨。
美国建材批发商Sherwood Lumber的CEO安迪·古德曼表示：“随着现货价格按照与期货价格接近的幅度上涨，零售价格也将快速上涨。我们已经听说有许多还没有做好准备的改造项目已经提货，只是为了保证能够按目前的价格交割，以避免未来价格上涨的风险。如果你在明年第一季度需要木材，并且现在有经济能力，那就没有必要等待。”
木材电商公司MaterialsXchange的CEO迈克尔·维斯内夫斯基认同这种观点。他表示，如果消费者计划开展DIY项目，他们可能希望现在购买木制品。
这轮价格上涨的原因与上一轮不同。上一轮价格上涨只是因为供不应求。在疫情封锁期间，木材产量下降，无法满足疫情期间住宅建设和DIY热增加的需求。随着锯木厂产量增加和消费者因为木材价格过高放弃DIY房屋改造，当时供应不足的问题最终得到了解决。
但本轮价格上涨的原因主要是供应链问题，而不是供应不足。作为北美木材主产地，不列颠哥伦比亚省上个月的降雨量创历史记录，引发的洪水和泥石流导致该省的公路、桥梁和铁路封闭。这导致木材更难运送至加拿大最大的港口温哥华港。当然，供需关系也产生了一定影响。随着今年夏天木材价格下跌，之前放弃DIY的消费者重新回到市场，而房地产市场火爆则让房产商开足了马力。此外，美国太平洋西北地区和不列颠哥伦比亚省严重的野火季，使加福林业（Canfor）等主要木材生产商不得不在夏季和秋季削减产量。
好消息是，不列颠哥伦比亚省的部分公路和铁路逐步恢复运营，开始有更多木材进入市场。但有业内人士告诉《财富》杂志，恢复正常仍需要一些时间。与此同时，维斯内夫斯基表示，他并不确定木材期货的未来走势。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
In May, the futures price of lumber peaked at an all-time high of $1,711 per thousand board feet. But during the summer those prices crashed, hitting a bottom of $454 in August. But in recent months that price correction has flipped back into another price run. As of Friday, lumber futures are back up to $1,024—a 126% gain since the August bottom. That's already translating into a higher wholesale "cash" market price ($731) and will ultimately cause prices to rise for do-it-yourselfers who shop for lumber at retailers like Home Depot.
"Prices will start rising very quickly on the retail side to catch up as the cash price is jumping at a very similar rate to the futures gains," says Andy Goodman, CEO of Sherwood Lumber, a national wholesaler of building materials. "We have already heard of many jobs that aren’t ready to frame take delivery just to secure today’s price rather than risk what the price may be. If you need wood for the first quarter and can afford to buy it now, then no need to wait."
Michael Wisnefski, CEO of MaterialsXchange, a lumber e-commerce company, agrees. He says if DIYers have upcoming projects, they may want to buy the wood products now.
What's driving this run is different from the last go-around. The previous one was simply a shortage. Lumber production, which fell during the COVID lockdowns, was overtaken by rising demand from a coinciding housing and DIY boom during the pandemic. It eventually got worked out as sawmills increased production and DIYers got priced out.
This time, it's less of a shortage and more of a supply-chain issue. Record rainfall in British Columbia—the epicenter of North American lumber—last month created flooding and mudslides that caused road, bridge, and train closures across the province. That's made it harder to get wood through the Port of Vancouver—the largest port in Canada. Of course, supply and demand are playing a role too. Some of the priced-out DIYers have returned to the market as prices fell this summer, while a strong housing market continues to keep homebuilders busy. Additionally, a bad wildfire season in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and British Columbia forced some major lumber producers like Canfor to curtail production over the summer and fall.
The good news: Already, some roads and trains in British Columbia are beginning to reopen and more wood is starting to move. However, industry insiders tell Fortune it will take time to catch back up. In the meantime, Wisnefski says, he isn't quite sure where lumber futures will go from here.
