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印度电动两轮车市场潜力巨大

印度电动两轮车市场潜力巨大

Biman Mukherji 2021年09月13日
印度只有12%的人口拥有一辆两轮车,这意味着巨大商机。

印度流行两轮车。该国是全球最大的摩托车、踏板车和助力自行车市场,两轮车约占其国内机动车总销售额的80%。去年,印度的两轮车销量达到1500万辆,超过了其他任何国家。

而且该市场仍然有巨大的成长空间:印度只有12%的人口拥有一辆两轮车。巴维什·阿加瓦尔在2010年年底创建了印度领先的叫车服务平台Ola。他看到了两轮车市场的巨大商机,但同时也看到了一个潜在问题。

如果印度未来数以百万计的两轮车司机购买汽油动力车,印度城市必定会受到雾霾的困扰,而且有些已经是全世界污染最严重的城市。阿加瓦尔称:“我们决不能让这种事情发生。所以推出电动两轮车不再是一种选择,而是变得至关重要。”

因此成立十年的Ola正在印度南部泰米尔纳德邦的克里斯赫纳吉里市兴建全球最大的电动两轮车工厂。工厂位于班加罗尔东南部,距班加罗尔大约两个小时的车程。这家工厂隶属于公司2017年新成立的业务部门Ola Electric。

如果这家庞大的工厂开足马力运营,每年就可以生产1000万辆两轮车,占全球总产量的15%。工厂一期即将完工,年产能为200万辆;在8月15日生产出了第一批电动踏板车。公司计划从9月8日开始发售。

阿加瓦尔的目标不只是印度市场。Ola Electric计划将电动两轮车卖到欧洲、东南亚等市场。35岁的创业者阿加瓦尔告诉《财富》杂志:“我们将在印度生产,产品销往世界各地。”

有十多家印度厂商加入了生产电动两轮车的竞赛。Ola的其他主要竞争对手包括Ampere Vehicles、Ather Energy、Bajaj Auto、Hero Electric和Okinawa Autotech等。到目前为止,没有一家公司能够占据明显的领先优势。虽然在两轮车市场,电动两轮车依旧是一个小众市场,但分析师预计该市场有望大幅增长。

据印度电动汽车制造商行业组织电动汽车制造商协会(Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles)统计,在截至2021年3月的财年,印度电动两轮车的总销量为143837辆。

这在印度两轮车总销量中仅占一小部分,其中约有三分之一是踏板车。

但分析师预测,得益于政府慷慨的激励措施和补贴,未来几年,电动两轮车市场将大幅增长。6月,印度联邦政府将电动两轮车补贴提高到每千瓦时电池容量15000卢比,比之前的补贴水平提高了50%。政府还将对电动两轮车制造商的财务激励上限从之前的车辆成本的20%提高到40%。

包括古吉拉特邦、拉贾斯坦邦和马哈拉施特拉邦在内的许多邦的政府都宣布增加补贴。

伦敦信息服务提供商IHS Markit的动力系统与合规预测副总监苏拉杰·高希表示,未来预计会有更多邦宣布增加对电动两轮车的补贴。他预测,该领域会迎来“现象级”增长。

Ola Electric称,其使命是在未来四年内淘汰汽油驱动的两轮车。

这是一个雄心勃勃的目标!为了实现这个目标,公司必须为客户提供更有吸引力的性价比。Ola生产的首款电动踏板车定价为1369美元和1780美元。古吉拉特邦对电动踏板车的补贴最高。在该地区,扣除补贴之后,购买一辆Ola踏板车的成本只有1064美元。

这相当于一款高档汽油驱动踏板车的价格,比Ola的竞争对手提供的规格接近的电动踏板车至少便宜15%至20%。

Ola的高端品牌S1 Pro踏板车最高时速可以达到115公里,一次充电可行驶181公里。

分析师表示,这款产品的行驶里程和速度足以满足城市通勤者的需求。每天城市通勤的距离通常不超过30公里至40公里。

为了吸引城市通勤者,Ola踏板车还有地图导航、遥控锁车和内置音响等功能。

但Ola将要与Hero MotoCorp等老牌制造商激烈竞争。Hero MotoCorp是过去二十年全世界最大的两轮车厂商,并计划于明年年初推出新款电动两轮车。Ola还必须面对新厂商的挑战,例如位于班加罗尔的Ather Energy公司。Hero MotoCorp在该公司占有35%的股份。(Hero MotoCorp原名Hero Honda,是一家独立的公司,与Hero Electric之间是竞争的关系。)

IHS Markit的高希表示,Ola Electric“引起了轰动,其定价也足够大胆,但产品上市和为印度客户带来适当的价值,又是另一码事。”

对于Ola而言,邀请消费者检验其产品的价值更有挑战性,因为与Hero或Bajaj等成熟的厂商不同,Ola没有全国经销商网络,无法让消费者用脚来检查踏板车的轮胎,或者进行试驾。Ola希望通过在线策略销售其踏板车,支持客户通过智能手机或计算机预约试驾,并安排Ola销售人员把踏板车送到客户家门口。该公司还会在特定地点设立实物“体验中心”。

Ola面临的另外一项挑战是印度的充电站严重不足。Ola计划在电动踏板车开始销售后一年内,在100个印度城市设立5000个充电点。阿加瓦尔曾经承诺在400个城市建设10万个充电点,形成一个“Ola超级充电桩网络”,这将是全球覆盖范围最广、最密集的两轮车充电网络。Ola表示其充电站仅供Ola踏板车使用。

阿加瓦尔指出,电动汽车制造商必须自己建造充电基础设施,来满足他们的需求。他告诉《财富》杂志:“我并不认为这是政府的工作。”

Ola高管表示,其充电桩可以在18分钟内充满一半电量。消费者还能够使用踏板车附带的750瓦便携式充电器进行充电,在家或办公室就可以轻松安装。该公司表示,便携式充电器完成充电需要约六个小时。

安永(EY)的汽车业务合伙人索姆·卡普尔称:“最大的问题是,有多少[人]能够在家里有一个专门的充电设施。”

印度的电动汽车厂商因为供应链问题而陷入混乱。该行业主要依赖从中国进口电池组和动力电池等零部件。

Ola表示将从韩国进口燃料电池,并在泰米尔纳德邦的综合未来工厂内自行生产电动踏板车的电池组和发动机等核心组件。阿加瓦尔称,公司将在两年内把电池生产线引入印度。

对印度的电动两轮车制造商来说,前方的道路可能充满了障碍和陷阱。Ola只有成功度过了初期的难关之后,才可以开始飞速发展。

安永的卡普尔说:“只要[电动两轮车]的总拥有成本低于常规燃料驱动的车辆,该市场就会成倍增长。只是我们不确定这一刻会在什么时候来临,这是一个非常关键的问题。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

印度流行两轮车。该国是全球最大的摩托车、踏板车和助力自行车市场,两轮车约占其国内机动车总销售额的80%。去年,印度的两轮车销量达到1500万辆,超过了其他任何国家。

而且该市场仍然有巨大的成长空间:印度只有12%的人口拥有一辆两轮车。巴维什·阿加瓦尔在2010年年底创建了印度领先的叫车服务平台Ola。他看到了两轮车市场的巨大商机,但同时也看到了一个潜在问题。

如果印度未来数以百万计的两轮车司机购买汽油动力车,印度城市必定会受到雾霾的困扰,而且有些已经是全世界污染最严重的城市。阿加瓦尔称:“我们决不能让这种事情发生。所以推出电动两轮车不再是一种选择,而是变得至关重要。”

因此成立十年的Ola正在印度南部泰米尔纳德邦的克里斯赫纳吉里市兴建全球最大的电动两轮车工厂。工厂位于班加罗尔东南部,距班加罗尔大约两个小时的车程。这家工厂隶属于公司2017年新成立的业务部门Ola Electric。

如果这家庞大的工厂开足马力运营,每年就可以生产1000万辆两轮车,占全球总产量的15%。工厂一期即将完工,年产能为200万辆;在8月15日生产出了第一批电动踏板车。公司计划从9月8日开始发售。

阿加瓦尔的目标不只是印度市场。Ola Electric计划将电动两轮车卖到欧洲、东南亚等市场。35岁的创业者阿加瓦尔告诉《财富》杂志:“我们将在印度生产,产品销往世界各地。”

有十多家印度厂商加入了生产电动两轮车的竞赛。Ola的其他主要竞争对手包括Ampere Vehicles、Ather Energy、Bajaj Auto、Hero Electric和Okinawa Autotech等。到目前为止,没有一家公司能够占据明显的领先优势。虽然在两轮车市场,电动两轮车依旧是一个小众市场,但分析师预计该市场有望大幅增长。

据印度电动汽车制造商行业组织电动汽车制造商协会(Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles)统计,在截至2021年3月的财年,印度电动两轮车的总销量为143837辆。

这在印度两轮车总销量中仅占一小部分,其中约有三分之一是踏板车。

但分析师预测,得益于政府慷慨的激励措施和补贴,未来几年,电动两轮车市场将大幅增长。6月,印度联邦政府将电动两轮车补贴提高到每千瓦时电池容量15000卢比,比之前的补贴水平提高了50%。政府还将对电动两轮车制造商的财务激励上限从之前的车辆成本的20%提高到40%。

包括古吉拉特邦、拉贾斯坦邦和马哈拉施特拉邦在内的许多邦的政府都宣布增加补贴。

伦敦信息服务提供商IHS Markit的动力系统与合规预测副总监苏拉杰·高希表示,未来预计会有更多邦宣布增加对电动两轮车的补贴。他预测,该领域会迎来“现象级”增长。

Ola Electric称,其使命是在未来四年内淘汰汽油驱动的两轮车。

这是一个雄心勃勃的目标!为了实现这个目标,公司必须为客户提供更有吸引力的性价比。Ola生产的首款电动踏板车定价为1369美元和1780美元。古吉拉特邦对电动踏板车的补贴最高。在该地区,扣除补贴之后,购买一辆Ola踏板车的成本只有1064美元。

这相当于一款高档汽油驱动踏板车的价格,比Ola的竞争对手提供的规格接近的电动踏板车至少便宜15%至20%。

Ola的高端品牌S1 Pro踏板车最高时速可以达到115公里,一次充电可行驶181公里。

分析师表示,这款产品的行驶里程和速度足以满足城市通勤者的需求。每天城市通勤的距离通常不超过30公里至40公里。

为了吸引城市通勤者,Ola踏板车还有地图导航、遥控锁车和内置音响等功能。

但Ola将要与Hero MotoCorp等老牌制造商激烈竞争。Hero MotoCorp是过去二十年全世界最大的两轮车厂商,并计划于明年年初推出新款电动两轮车。Ola还必须面对新厂商的挑战,例如位于班加罗尔的Ather Energy公司。Hero MotoCorp在该公司占有35%的股份。(Hero MotoCorp原名Hero Honda,是一家独立的公司,与Hero Electric之间是竞争的关系。)

IHS Markit的高希表示,Ola Electric“引起了轰动,其定价也足够大胆,但产品上市和为印度客户带来适当的价值,又是另一码事。”

对于Ola而言,邀请消费者检验其产品的价值更有挑战性,因为与Hero或Bajaj等成熟的厂商不同,Ola没有全国经销商网络,无法让消费者用脚来检查踏板车的轮胎,或者进行试驾。Ola希望通过在线策略销售其踏板车,支持客户通过智能手机或计算机预约试驾,并安排Ola销售人员把踏板车送到客户家门口。该公司还会在特定地点设立实物“体验中心”。

Ola面临的另外一项挑战是印度的充电站严重不足。Ola计划在电动踏板车开始销售后一年内,在100个印度城市设立5000个充电点。阿加瓦尔曾经承诺在400个城市建设10万个充电点,形成一个“Ola超级充电桩网络”,这将是全球覆盖范围最广、最密集的两轮车充电网络。Ola表示其充电站仅供Ola踏板车使用。

阿加瓦尔指出,电动汽车制造商必须自己建造充电基础设施,来满足他们的需求。他告诉《财富》杂志:“我并不认为这是政府的工作。”

Ola高管表示,其充电桩可以在18分钟内充满一半电量。消费者还能够使用踏板车附带的750瓦便携式充电器进行充电,在家或办公室就可以轻松安装。该公司表示,便携式充电器完成充电需要约六个小时。

安永(EY)的汽车业务合伙人索姆·卡普尔称:“最大的问题是,有多少[人]能够在家里有一个专门的充电设施。”

印度的电动汽车厂商因为供应链问题而陷入混乱。该行业主要依赖从中国进口电池组和动力电池等零部件。

Ola表示将从韩国进口燃料电池,并在泰米尔纳德邦的综合未来工厂内自行生产电动踏板车的电池组和发动机等核心组件。阿加瓦尔称,公司将在两年内把电池生产线引入印度。

对印度的电动两轮车制造商来说,前方的道路可能充满了障碍和陷阱。Ola只有成功度过了初期的难关之后,才可以开始飞速发展。

安永的卡普尔说:“只要[电动两轮车]的总拥有成本低于常规燃料驱动的车辆,该市场就会成倍增长。只是我们不确定这一刻会在什么时候来临,这是一个非常关键的问题。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

India rides on two wheels. The country is the world’s largest market for motorcycles, scooters, and mopeds, which account for 80% of its total vehicle sales. Last year, 15 million two-wheelers were sold in India, more than in any other country in the world.

And yet the market has ample room for further growth: Only 12% of India’s population owns a two-wheeler. Bhavish Aggarwal, who founded India’s leading ride-sharing platform, Ola, at the end of 2010, sees that as an enormous business opportunity—but one with a catch.

If India’s millions of future two-wheel drivers buy gas-powered vehicles, the nation’s cities—already some of the most polluted in the world—will be choked with smog. “We simply cannot allow that to happen,” Aggarwal declares. “So moving to electric vehicles is no longer optional, it’s crucial.”

Thus, a decade after its founding, Ola is now building the world’s largest electric two-wheeler factory in Krishnagiri, a city in India’s southern Tamil Nadu state, about a two-hour drive southeast from Bangalore. The factory is a project under Ola Electric, a new company group launched in 2017.

When the sprawling factory is fully operational, it will be able to produce 10 million two-wheelers a year—15% of the world’s total production. The first phase of the factory, with an annual capacity of 2 million, is near completion; the first batch of electric scooters rolled out on Aug. 15. The company plans to open sales from Sept. 8.

Aggarwal is looking beyond the Indian market. Ola Electric plans to sell electric two-wheelers in Europe, Southeast Asia, and elsewhere. “We will build in India and make for the world,” the 35-year-old entrepreneur told Fortune.

More than a dozen Indian manufacturers have joined Ola in the race to build electric two-wheelers. Among the other leading contenders: Ampere Vehicles, Ather Energy, Bajaj Auto, Hero Electric, and Okinawa Autotech. So far, no company has been able to establish a clear lead. The segment remains a tiny niche of the overall market, but analysts say it is poised for dramatic growth.

In the financial year that ended March 2021, the total number of electric two-wheelers sold in India was 143,837, according to the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles, an industry association representing India’s EV makers.

That’s a fraction of India’s total two-wheeler sales, of which about a third were scooters.

Yet analysts expect robust growth over the next several years thanks to generous government incentives and subsidies. In June, India’s federal government raised its subsidy on electric two-wheelers to 15,000 rupees per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity, a 50% increase over the previous subsidy. The government has also raised the cap on financial incentives for electric two-wheeler makers to 40% of the cost of the vehicle, up from 20% earlier.

The governments of many states, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra, have announced additional subsidies.

Suraj Ghosh, associate director for powertrain and compliance forecasts at IHS Markit, a London-based information services provider, says he expects many more states to announce subsidies for electric two-wheelers over the next several years. The segment’s growth, he predicts, will be “phenomenal.”

Ola Electric says its mission is to make gasoline-powered two-wheelers obsolete within the next four years.

It’s an ambitious goal. To achieve it, the company must offer customers a superior combination of price and performance. Ola’s first electric scooter models have been priced at $1,369 and $1,780. In Gujarat, which offers the most generous sweeteners for electric scooters, the after-subsidy cost of buying an Ola scooter falls to as low as $1,064.

That’s comparable to the price of a top-end gasoline-powered scooter and at least 15% to 20% cheaper than electric scooters with similar specifications offered by Ola’s rivals.

Ola’s top-of-the-line S1 Pro scooter boasts a maximum speed of 115 kilometers per hour and a range of up to 181 kilometers on a single full charge.

That range and speed should be sufficient for urban commuters who typically commute no more than 30 to 40 kilometers a day, according to analysts.

Ola scooters also come with features such as navigation maps, keyless locking, and built-in speakers designed to appeal to urban commuters.

But Ola will face stiff competition from established manufacturers like Hero MotoCorp, which has been the world’s largest maker of two-wheelers for the past 20 years and plans to launch its first electric model early next year. Ola must also contend with emerging players such as Bangalore-based Ather Energy, in which Hero MotoCorp owns a 35% stake. (Hero MotoCorp, formerly Hero Honda, is a separate, rival company to Hero Electric.)

Ola Electric has “created a buzz, and the pricing also is adequately aggressive, but to get a product in the market and give the right value to the Indian customer is a different proposition,” said IHS Markit’s Ghosh.

Getting consumers to test that proposition will be all the more challenging given that Ola, unlike established manufacturers such as Hero or Bajaj, doesn’t have a nationwide network of dealerships where customers can kick the tires and take scooters for a test-drive. Ola hopes to sell its scooters with an online strategy, enabling customers to book a test-drive using their smartphone or computer and arrange for an Ola salesman to bring a scooter right to their doorstep. The company will also have physical “experience centers” at select locations.

Another challenge for Ola will be India’s dearth of electric charging stations. Ola plans to install 5,000 charging points in 100 Indian cities within its first year of sales. Aggarwal has vowed to build an “Ola Hypercharger Network” with more than 100,000 charging points across 400 cities, which would make it the widest and densest two-wheeler charging network in the world. Ola says its charging stations will only be accessible to Ola scooters.

Electric vehicle makers will simply have to make the charging infrastructure they want, says Aggarwal. “I don’t think it’s the government’s job,” he tells Fortune.

Ola executives say chargers at its stations will be capable of delivering a half charge in 18 minutes. Consumers also will be able to recharge with a 750W portable charger that comes with the scooter and can be easily installed at home or at the office. The portable chargers can provide a full charge in about six hours, according to the company.

“How many [people] will have a dedicated charging facility at home is the single biggest challenge,” says Som Kapoor, partner for automotives at EY.

India’s electric vehicle manufacturers have been bedeviled by supply-chain problems. The sector is hugely dependent on imports, mostly from China, for parts such as battery packs and power cells.

Ola says it will import fuel cells from South Korea, but manufacture its own battery pack and motor, and produce the core components for its electric scooters at the company’s integrated Future Factory in Tamil Nadu. Aggarwal says the company will bring cell manufacturing to India within two years.

For India’s electric two-wheeler manufacturers, the road ahead may be strewn with rocks and potholes. Ola will have to negotiate those initial bumps successfully before it hits cruising speed.

“Once the total cost of ownership [of an electric two-wheeler] becomes lower than a vehicle with a conventional fuel engine, then there will be a geometrical progression,” says EY’s Kapoor. “The only thing is we don’t know when that will happen. It’s probably a billion-dollar question.”

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