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极端天气轮番上演,全球粮食价格暴涨

极端天气轮番上演,全球粮食价格暴涨

Katherine Dunn 2021-09-07
联合国粮农组织今年的指数显示,食品价格已经达到2011年以来的最高水平。

空空如也的货架。长时间的延误。根本不会出现的货物。

由于极端天气频发、劳动力和设备短缺、全球供应链混乱,从薯片到厨具再到食物,各类商品的供应都受到了冲击。现在,因为干旱、火灾、霜冻和新冠肺炎疫情造成的劳动力短缺等因素相互交织,全球牛肉、小麦、糖、植物油等各类大宗商品的价格都在稳步上涨。

根据联合国粮农组织(UN Food and Agriculture Organization)于9月2日发布的月度食物价格指数,全球食物价格较去年同期上涨了近33%,7月以来涨幅超过3%。总体而言,联合国粮农组织今年的指数显示,食品价格已经达到2011年以来的最高水平。2011年,恶劣天气和油价高企导致全球食品价格出现危机,因此引发了广泛的抗议活动,再之后就是著名的阿拉伯之春。

按照联合国粮农组织的说法,今年多种风险因素叠加,祸不单行,但天气似乎是其中最常见的风险点。从巴西到哈萨克斯坦,全球农作物都受到了恶劣天气的影响,让我们看到了一幅令人忧心忡忡的画面:多年干旱和反常事件使全球粮食体系的隐患加剧。

巴西的甘蔗

对巴西的甘蔗来说,在经历了艰难的一年后,霜冻带来了新一轮的打击。

先是去年的干旱导致开局不利,之后迎来了更多的高温天气和甘蔗田火灾。随后,一波又一波的霜冻再次破坏了全球最大蔗糖生产国巴西的产出。

全球供应因此出现紧张,糖价上涨。联合国粮农组织的糖价指数仅8月一个月就跃升9.6%,连续第五个月出现上涨,达到了2017年2月以来的最高水平。2017年2月,糖价因为天气问题和消费增加而出现了上涨。

期货市场和美国零售价格也反映出价格的上涨。过去一年,美国白糖期货价格上涨了一倍多,跃升56%,达到2017年3月以来的最高水平。根据美国农业部(USDA)的监测数据,2021年第二季度的零售糖价格处于2012年以来的最高水平。

加拿大小麦

加拿大草原热得咝咝作响。

今夏早些时候,如今已经耳熟能详的“热圆顶”效应横跨北美西部,创下了破纪录的高温,导致降雨量还不足以往的一半。这意味着,在加拿大的产粮省份,小麦被活活烤死了。

根据加拿大政府统计机构的数据,该国今年的小麦产量预计将下降近35%,达14年来的最低水平。仅在阿尔伯塔省,因为收获面积变小、天气炎热,小麦产量预计将下降45%。联合国粮农组织表示,加拿大的小麦库存现已降至40年来的最低水平。

加拿大是仅次于俄罗斯、美国和欧盟(EU)的全球第四大小麦出口地,它并非唯一一个受到冲击的国家。美国农业部估计,俄罗斯的小麦作物将受到更大的考验(两国今年的小麦产量估计将减少4000万吨),美国小麦也同样受到了干旱的侵袭。

上述因素导致全球小麦价格环比上涨8.8%,2020年8月以来,共计上涨43.5%,指数显示,小麦价格已经推高至2013年以来未曾一见的年度水平。期货市场上,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)的小麦合约较去年同期上涨了约27%。

马来西亚棕榈油

2020年3月,马来西亚政府通过了“马来西亚行动管制令”(Movement Control Order),这项法律很快就产生了令人意想不到的连锁效应:棕榈油价格上涨。

美国农业部的数据显示,马来西亚的棕榈油产量约占全世界的26%,是仅次于印度尼西亚的全球第二大生产国。这种植物油用途非常广泛,被用作各种产品的原料,从食用油到牙膏再到比萨等等,因此棕榈油的价格波动会给食品和消费品行业带来连锁反应。

行动管制令规定,新增外国劳工不得进入马来西亚,已经在马工作的外国劳工可以返回原籍地。美国农业部估计,马来西亚劳动力短缺已经达到3.1万人,行动管制令导致问题加剧。该行业严重依赖外国工人,因为大多马来西亚人不愿意在棕榈油种植园从事这类辛苦的工作。美国农业部估计,与去年同期相比,棕榈油产量下降了近11%。

联合国粮农组织的数据显示,因此,植物油价格与7月相比,整体上涨了6.7%,国际棕榈油价已经达到历史高位。美国农业部的数据显示,与去年同期相比,2021年7月的价格涨了67美元。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

空空如也的货架。长时间的延误。根本不会出现的货物。

由于极端天气频发、劳动力和设备短缺、全球供应链混乱,从薯片到厨具再到食物,各类商品的供应都受到了冲击。现在,因为干旱、火灾、霜冻和新冠肺炎疫情造成的劳动力短缺等因素相互交织,全球牛肉、小麦、糖、植物油等各类大宗商品的价格都在稳步上涨。

根据联合国粮农组织(UN Food and Agriculture Organization)于9月2日发布的月度食物价格指数,全球食物价格较去年同期上涨了近33%,7月以来涨幅超过3%。总体而言,联合国粮农组织今年的指数显示,食品价格已经达到2011年以来的最高水平。2011年,恶劣天气和油价高企导致全球食品价格出现危机,因此引发了广泛的抗议活动,再之后就是著名的阿拉伯之春。

按照联合国粮农组织的说法,今年多种风险因素叠加,祸不单行,但天气似乎是其中最常见的风险点。从巴西到哈萨克斯坦,全球农作物都受到了恶劣天气的影响,让我们看到了一幅令人忧心忡忡的画面:多年干旱和反常事件使全球粮食体系的隐患加剧。

巴西的甘蔗

对巴西的甘蔗来说,在经历了艰难的一年后,霜冻带来了新一轮的打击。

先是去年的干旱导致开局不利,之后迎来了更多的高温天气和甘蔗田火灾。随后,一波又一波的霜冻再次破坏了全球最大蔗糖生产国巴西的产出。

全球供应因此出现紧张,糖价上涨。联合国粮农组织的糖价指数仅8月一个月就跃升9.6%,连续第五个月出现上涨,达到了2017年2月以来的最高水平。2017年2月,糖价因为天气问题和消费增加而出现了上涨。

期货市场和美国零售价格也反映出价格的上涨。过去一年,美国白糖期货价格上涨了一倍多,跃升56%,达到2017年3月以来的最高水平。根据美国农业部(USDA)的监测数据,2021年第二季度的零售糖价格处于2012年以来的最高水平。

加拿大小麦

加拿大草原热得咝咝作响。

今夏早些时候,如今已经耳熟能详的“热圆顶”效应横跨北美西部,创下了破纪录的高温,导致降雨量还不足以往的一半。这意味着,在加拿大的产粮省份,小麦被活活烤死了。

根据加拿大政府统计机构的数据,该国今年的小麦产量预计将下降近35%,达14年来的最低水平。仅在阿尔伯塔省,因为收获面积变小、天气炎热,小麦产量预计将下降45%。联合国粮农组织表示,加拿大的小麦库存现已降至40年来的最低水平。

加拿大是仅次于俄罗斯、美国和欧盟(EU)的全球第四大小麦出口地,它并非唯一一个受到冲击的国家。美国农业部估计,俄罗斯的小麦作物将受到更大的考验(两国今年的小麦产量估计将减少4000万吨),美国小麦也同样受到了干旱的侵袭。

上述因素导致全球小麦价格环比上涨8.8%,2020年8月以来,共计上涨43.5%,指数显示,小麦价格已经推高至2013年以来未曾一见的年度水平。期货市场上,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)的小麦合约较去年同期上涨了约27%。

马来西亚棕榈油

2020年3月,马来西亚政府通过了“马来西亚行动管制令”(Movement Control Order),这项法律很快就产生了令人意想不到的连锁效应:棕榈油价格上涨。

美国农业部的数据显示,马来西亚的棕榈油产量约占全世界的26%,是仅次于印度尼西亚的全球第二大生产国。这种植物油用途非常广泛,被用作各种产品的原料,从食用油到牙膏再到比萨等等,因此棕榈油的价格波动会给食品和消费品行业带来连锁反应。

行动管制令规定,新增外国劳工不得进入马来西亚,已经在马工作的外国劳工可以返回原籍地。美国农业部估计,马来西亚劳动力短缺已经达到3.1万人,行动管制令导致问题加剧。该行业严重依赖外国工人,因为大多马来西亚人不愿意在棕榈油种植园从事这类辛苦的工作。美国农业部估计,与去年同期相比,棕榈油产量下降了近11%。

联合国粮农组织的数据显示,因此,植物油价格与7月相比,整体上涨了6.7%,国际棕榈油价已经达到历史高位。美国农业部的数据显示,与去年同期相比,2021年7月的价格涨了67美元。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

Bare shelves. Long delays. Goods that just don't show up at all.

Wild weather, labor and equipment shortages, and a snarled global supply chain have hit everything from chips to cooking equipment—and food. Now, around the globe, prices for staple commodities from beef to wheat to sugar and vegetable oil are steadily rising, fueled by a mix of drought, fires, frost—and COVID-19 labor shortages.

Prices globally are up nearly 33% since the same period last year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)'s monthly food price index, released on September 2. From July, prices are up by over 3%. Overall, this year the FAO's index puts food prices at levels not seen since 2011, the peak of rising prices spurred by weather shocks and high oil prices, that fueled a global food price crisis and famously resulted in widespread protests ahead of the Arab Spring.

This year the FAO pointed to a seemingly perfect storm of disruption, but weather seemed to be the most common denominator. It has disrupted crops from Brazil to Kazakhstan, offering a worrying picture of how multiyear droughts and freak events can exacerbate underlying vulnerabilities in the global food system.

Brazilian cane sugar

For Brazil's sugarcane crops, the arrival of frost was just another hit after a difficult year.

Last year's drought had prevented the crops from getting off on the right foot, and more high temperatures were paired with fire outbreaks across sugarcane fields. Then waves of frost arrived, damaging production once again in the world's largest sugar producer.

That has constrained global supply, helping prices jump. The FAO's Sugar Price Index jumped 9.6% in just one month to August, and was up for the fifth consecutive month, hitting levels not seen since February 2017, when weather events and increasing sugar consumption had pushed sugar prices up.

Futures markets and U.S. retail prices also reflected those jumps. Over the past year, the U.S. sugar futures price has more than doubled, jumping 56% to sit at prices not seen since March 2017. Retail sugar prices in the second quarter of 2021, as tracked by the USDA, were at their highest since 2012.

Canadian wheat

The Canadian Prairies were sizzling.

Earlier this summer, the now-famous "heat dome" across western North America produced record temperatures across the region, while rainfall was less than half the typical levels. In the Canadian provinces that operate as the country’s breadbasket, that meant wheat crops were being toasted alive.

The country's wheat production is expected to drop by nearly 35% this year, to a 14-year low, according to the Canadian government statistics agency. In the province of Alberta alone, smaller harvest areas and baking heat meant the crop is forecast to drop by 45%. The FAO says that wheat stocks in Canada have now dropped to a 40-year low.

Canada, the world's fourth-largest exporter of wheat after Russia, the U.S., and the EU, wasn't alone. The USDA estimates that Russia will see an even larger hit to its wheat crop (between the two countries, wheat production will drop by an estimated 40 million metric tons this year), and U.S. crops were also hit by drought.

That's helped push up wheat prices worldwide by 8.8% month on month and by 43.5% since August 2020, with the index putting prices at levels not seen on a yearly basis since 2013. On the futures market, the CBOT wheat contract is now up about 27% since the same time last year.

Malaysian palm oil

When the Malaysian government passed the Movement Control Order (MCO) in March 2020, the law would quickly have an unexpected knock-on effect: the price of palm oil.

The country is responsible for about 26% of the world's palm oil production, according to the USDA, making it the world's second-largest producer, after Indonesia. The vegetable oil is incredibly versatile—it is used as an ingredient in products from cooking oil to toothpaste to pizza—and fluctuations in its price produces knock-on effects across the food and consumer goods sectors.

The MCO stopped new foreign labor from entering the country and allowed those who were already working in Malaysia to return home. That exacerbated a labor shortage that was already estimated at 31,000 workers, according to the USDA, amid a critical reliance on foreign workers, with many Malaysians unwilling to take the difficult jobs on the palm oil plantations. The USDA estimates that production is down nearly 11% compared to the same period last year.

That has helped push vegetable oil prices as a whole up by 6.7% from July; while international palm oil prices are now sitting at record highs, according to the FAO. USDA data showed a $67 jump in prices from July 2021 compared to a year earlier.

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