美国房地产市场遇冷，剧变正在降临
如果要描述2021年房地产市场的节奏，一个词：极速狂飙。今年房市的竞购战十分激烈，房价涨幅创下历史新高。
但这种浪潮正在发生变化。
疫情期间，大批购房者涌入房地产市场，清空了房屋库存，市场库存连续下降12个月。截至4月，房屋库存较上年同期已惊人地下降了53%。然而，最近趋势曲线已经出现了变化：待售房屋数量已连续上涨两个月。5月，realtor.com上挂出的房屋数量增加了3%，6月又上涨了9%。这还不是全部：上周数据显示，新房销售正在下滑，6月的销售速度是疫情爆发以来最慢的。种种迹象都表明，市场正稍稍向有利于买家的方向转变。
房地产市场为何突然遇冷？因为购房者终于没那么痛快地花大价钱买房了。
房地产市场研究公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里•沃尔夫向《财富》杂志表示：“过去一年，房地产市场过热，房价天花板看不到头，部分买家对此已经难以接受。”Zonda上个月对房地产建筑商的一项调查发现，61%的建筑商感受到了买家更大的阻力。
买家的犹豫是意料之中的。毕竟，房价不可能一直以17%的年增长率上涨。说到底，房价还是要受到家庭预算的限制。
市场可能还会继续降温。正如《财富》杂志上周报道，随着最后一批刺激措施开始失效，房市节奏可能放缓。联邦政府房屋止赎禁令于7月31日到期。接下来是房贷延期支付计划，这项允许部分借款人暂停还款的政策将于9月30日失效。目前，仍有175万借款人受贷款延期计划保护，占美国房贷人数的3.5%。房主如仍处于经济紧张状态无法继续还贷，可以选择卖掉房产。当然，如果这种情况发生，房地产库存将进一步增长。
但降温并不一定意味着房价会下跌。事实上，研究公司CoreLogic预测，到2022年6月，房价将再上涨3.2%。毫无疑问：这个市场仍然是卖方市场。
“需要注意的是，许多房屋的销售速度仍然非常快，一上市就卖掉了。”沃尔夫说，“现在的变化是，经历竞价战或售价高于要价的房屋数量出现了非常轻微的下降……一些房屋现在的售价低于要价。”
CoreLogic等研究公司之所以认为房价会继续上涨，归根结底在于人口结构。出生于1989年至1993年的这批人（千禧一代中人数最多的年龄段）正步入30岁，对于他们而言，首套房的选购真正提上了日程，我们正处在这样一个五年周期的中间。而房地产建筑商却没有为此做好准备：2010年代，房产商仍在2008年房地产泡沫和随后的止赎危机带来的金融创伤中挣扎，整个行业都陷入低迷。除此之外，疫情引起的衰退导致抵押贷款利率降低，加上居家办公的职场人更愿意去追求买得起的房产，疫情给房产市场带来的多重利好仍在持续。（财富中文网）
译者：Agatha
如果要描述2021年房地产市场的节奏，一个词：极速狂飙。今年房市的竞购战十分激烈，房价涨幅创下历史新高。
但这种浪潮正在发生变化。
疫情期间，大批购房者涌入房地产市场，清空了房屋库存，市场库存连续下降12个月。截至4月，房屋库存较上年同期已惊人地下降了53%。然而，最近趋势曲线已经出现了变化：待售房屋数量已连续上涨两个月。5月，realtor.com上挂出的房屋数量增加了3%，6月又上涨了9%。这还不是全部：上周数据显示，新房销售正在下滑，6月的销售速度是疫情爆发以来最慢的。种种迹象都表明，市场正稍稍向有利于买家的方向转变。
房地产市场为何突然遇冷？因为购房者终于没那么痛快地花大价钱买房了。
房地产市场研究公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里•沃尔夫向《财富》杂志表示：“过去一年，房地产市场过热，房价天花板看不到头，部分买家对此已经难以接受。”Zonda上个月对房地产建筑商的一项调查发现，61%的建筑商感受到了买家更大的阻力。
买家的犹豫是意料之中的。毕竟，房价不可能一直以17%的年增长率上涨。说到底，房价还是要受到家庭预算的限制。
市场可能还会继续降温。正如《财富》杂志上周报道，随着最后一批刺激措施开始失效，房市节奏可能放缓。联邦政府房屋止赎禁令于7月31日到期。接下来是房贷延期支付计划，这项允许部分借款人暂停还款的政策将于9月30日失效。目前，仍有175万借款人受贷款延期计划保护，占美国房贷人数的3.5%。房主如仍处于经济紧张状态无法继续还贷，可以选择卖掉房产。当然，如果这种情况发生，房地产库存将进一步增长。
但降温并不一定意味着房价会下跌。事实上，研究公司CoreLogic预测，到2022年6月，房价将再上涨3.2%。毫无疑问：这个市场仍然是卖方市场。
“需要注意的是，许多房屋的销售速度仍然非常快，一上市就卖掉了。”沃尔夫说，“现在的变化是，经历竞价战或售价高于要价的房屋数量出现了非常轻微的下降……一些房屋现在的售价低于要价。”
CoreLogic等研究公司之所以认为房价会继续上涨，归根结底在于人口结构。出生于1989年至1993年的这批人（千禧一代中人数最多的年龄段）正步入30岁，对于他们而言，首套房的选购真正提上了日程，我们正处在这样一个五年周期的中间。而房地产建筑商却没有为此做好准备：2010年代，房产商仍在2008年房地产泡沫和随后的止赎危机带来的金融创伤中挣扎，整个行业都陷入低迷。除此之外，疫情引起的衰退导致抵押贷款利率降低，加上居家办公的职场人更愿意去追求买得起的房产，疫情给房产市场带来的多重利好仍在持续。（财富中文网）
译者：Agatha
Breakneck. That's the best way to describe the pace of the 2021 housing market. The bidding wars got so intense this year that home price growth set an all-time record.
But the tide is turning.
The rush of buyers into the housing market during the pandemic absolutely crushed housing inventory—the number of homes on the market—with that figure falling for 12 consecutive months. By April, housing inventory was down a staggering 53% from a year earlier. However, the trajectory has flipped: For two straight months the number of homes for sale has gone up. Homes listing on realtor.com rose 3% in May, then again by 9% in June. That's not all: We learned last week that new home sales are falling—their pace in June was the slowest since the onset of the pandemic. Every indication is that the market is shifting a bit in buyers’ favor.
Why the sudden cooling? Home shoppers are finally showing some reluctance to pay top dollar.
"The housing market was too hot for its own good over the past year, and we’ve seen some buyers bump up against an invisible price ceiling," Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a housing market research firm, tells Fortune. A Zonda survey of homebuilders last month finds that 61% of builders are seeing more resistance from homebuyers.
This buyer hesitation was expected. After all, home prices can't continue to grow at a 17% year-over-year rate indefinitely. At the end of the day, household budgets can stretch only so far.
And more cooling could be on the way. As Fortune reported last week, the pace of real estate sales might slow as the last of the stimulus protections begin to lapse. The foreclosure moratorium, which prevented foreclosures on federally backed mortgages, came to an end on July 31. Next up will be the mortgage forbearance program, which allows some borrowers to pause their payments; it lapses on Sept. 30. That forbearance program still protects 1.75 million borrowers, or 3.5% of U.S. mortgages. Homeowners still hurting financially could opt to sell their home rather than restart their mortgage payments. Of course, if that happens, housing inventory would rise further.
But cooling doesn't mean home prices will fall. In fact, the research firm CoreLogic forecasts home prices will climb another 3.2% by June 2022. Make no mistake: This is still a seller's market.
"It’s important to note that many homes are still selling almost as quickly as they hit the market," Wolf says. "The difference today is that there’s been ever so slight softening in the number of homes undergoing a bidding war or selling above the ask price…some homes are now selling below ask price."
The reason that research firms like CoreLogic think prices can go higher boils down to demographics. We're in the middle of the five-year period when the largest tranche of millennials, those born between 1989 and 1993, are hitting their thirties—the age when first-time homebuying really kicks into gear. That's something homebuilders haven't been preparing for: During the 2010s, homebuilding tanked as builders struggled with the financial scars of the 2008 housing bubble and subsequent foreclosure crisis. Not to mention, the housing market is still benefiting from the perfect storm created by the pandemic: recession-induced low mortgage rates, coupled with remote workers who are willing to uproot in pursuit of affordable real estate.
