比特币是特斯拉藏的“手榴弹”吗？
事情的开始看起来就像是一场鲁莽的赌注，随着加密货币的走势逐渐疯狂，情况看起来也越来越离谱。
今年年初，埃隆•马斯克用特斯拉的15亿美元现金购买比特币，引发各界关注。随着加密货币比特币的价格飞涨，特斯拉的持币价值比买入时上涨超过13亿美元，尽管最近有所回落，特斯拉的账面利润仍然不错，只是获利收窄。
不过，财经媒体和华尔街分析师都没有注意到某些不利因素。特斯拉对比特币采取了特殊的会计处理，虽然投资总体盈利，但特斯拉在二季度将出现“减值”损失。如果比特币的价格维持在当前的38000美元左右，冲击就不会很大。但如果想抵消减值，特斯拉就要出售不少比特币，而这可能会冲击比特币市场。如果比特币触及最近低点，远低于3万美元，特斯拉就会遭受巨大损失，生产和销售电动汽车几个季度的利润将一笔抹去。
最重要的是，截至6月末财季的减值将提醒投资者，马斯克的买入行为相当于为波动极大的资产广为宣传，从而提升了风险，仅在5月中下旬的8天里，比特币从高点到低点的振幅就达10%，乃至更高。
之前人们普遍认为：“嘿，比特币市场看起来很疯狂，但这家伙是个天才——特斯拉在比特币上就赚了几十亿美元！”而现在的舆论则变成了“没有人知道比特币市场怎么发展，如果崩溃，就相当于在特斯拉藏了颗手榴弹。”
比特币对特斯拉造成的风险在华尔街引起了恐慌。
“很多投资者宁愿马斯克从未碰过比特币。”Wedbush Securities的分析师丹尼尔•艾夫斯表示。“重点应该放在交货、全球电动汽车浪潮以及解决芯片短缺问题。然而现在人们太关注比特币了。”他补充说，特别令人沮丧的是，马斯克最近对几个月前还曾经大肆赞扬的比特币态度大扭转，还冲击了特斯拉股价。
“就像点火自家房子。”他说，“比特币事件给特斯拉的故事蒙上了阴翳。而且全是自找麻烦。”
让我们来看看，为什么二季度比特币的会计规则将导致特斯拉亏损，以及如果比特币的价格大幅下滑，损失将有多惨重。
特斯拉在比特币上收益巨大
特斯拉在2月8日公布的2020年度报告（10K）中，首次宣布斥资15亿美元投资比特币。直到一季度10Q报告提供细节，投资者才能够算出公司购买了多少比特币、买入平均价格以及持有收益。
10Q报告称，截至3月31日，特斯拉持有比特币价值24.8亿美元。当天纽约证券交易所的收盘价为58919美元，因此可以估计特斯拉持有约4.21万枚比特币。
从2月初到3月底，特斯拉卖出了10%，价值2.68亿美元。之前其成本为1.4亿美元，因此收益为1.28亿美元。（通过计算可知，最多的时候特斯拉持有约4.68万枚比特币。）
看起来，特斯拉账面上的比特币价值加上出售所得总计27.48亿美元（24.8亿美元加上2.58亿美元）。众所周知，买入时花了15亿美元，3月31日特斯拉的已实现和未实现收益超过12亿美元，也就是说11个星期里的投资收益超过80%。特斯拉买入比特币均价为3.2万美元，到一季度末价格近5.9万美元。
特斯拉的烦心事：比特币特殊会计规则
刚开始，投身比特币看起来像大获成功，当季不包括向竞争对手出售碳积分，特斯拉税前利润仅1500万美元。从这个角度看，买卖比特币拉升了公司业绩。
但10Q报告提到了很少有人注意的内容，预示着二季度的情况，以及随后几个季度可能出现更大的问题。尽管特斯拉出售10%的比特币赚取了巨额利润，但还是被迫在税前利润里计入2700万美元“减值”。(净收益从1.28亿美元减至1.01亿美元。）
在此简单介绍下造成减值，且未来几个季度将形成更多亏损的会计规则。根据美国财务会计准则委员会的分类，加密货币属于“期限不确定的无形资产”。不过会计专家告诉《财富》杂志，公司在资产负债表中如何处理加密资产有很大的自由度。一种选择是将比特币的买入价格或“账面价值”与交易点或季度末“公允市场价值”比较。
如果6月30日的比特币价格低于特斯拉账面上的任何一部分币的买入价，就要计入“减值”或者减记，减值金额等于“账面价值”和“公允市场价值”之差，也就是买入价减去季度末市场价。
特斯拉显然并未采取“季度末比较”方法，而是随时减值法，季度中只要比特币的市场价低于持有任何一部分币的买入价时就要计减值。公司收集减值数据，季度末收集计入“重组”项。
换言之，如果特斯拉在2月初以3.5万美元买入一些比特币，大幅上涨之后在5月19日跌至3.1万美元（实际上就是如此），每一枚比特币就都要计4000美元减值。如果比特币反弹回到3.1万美元以上，特斯拉就不能重新计算币值并消除减值。减值将一直存在。事实上，即使整个投资组合的市场价格远远高于特斯拉的买入价，且持续一段时间，也无法算作盈利。
也就是说，当中只存在两种情况：如果持有比特币有收益，就要按照买入成本计算；如果出现减值，就按照最新更低的“账面价值”计算。
只有特斯拉出售比特币时，才能够计入利润。收益相当于比特币的账面价值和更高的卖出价的差额。简单地说，不管是一枚或很多枚，只要加密货币交易所里的比特币市价低于特斯拉买入价，特斯拉就要对相应的比特币计亏损（或减值）。市价高于账面价值时，则只能通过卖出换成现金获取收益。
一季度，特斯拉在买入少部分比特币之后跌破了原始成本，引发2700万美元减值。但由于大部分投资组合价格飙升，特斯拉以远高于买入价的价格出售了10%，从而获得了巨大收益。
特斯拉的做法稳健也极保守
看起来，特斯拉有两条路可以选，都能够满足美国财务会计准则委员会的无形资产规定。如之前提到，一种方法是只有当买入比特币的平均成本在季度末低于市场价格时，才出现账面损失；第二种方法则是账面上任何一批买入价超过交易所季度收盘价就进行减值。
“特斯拉之所以能够选择，主要因为美国财务会计准则委员会并未就比特币发布指导意见。”宾夕法尼亚州立大学的会计学教授埃德•凯茨表示。
Bastiat Capital的首席会计专家阿尔伯特•迈耶指出，特斯拉的做法相当谨慎，遵循了美国财务会计准则委员会的两条原则，分别为“及时性”和“个别计价”。
特斯拉计算减值时根据当前价格而不是季度末价格，体现了“及时性”。每当有比特币市场价低于买入价时就对其计算减记，则体现了“个别计价”。迈耶说：“个别计价和即时确认减值都非常谨慎，我认为没有问题。”
不过值得注意的是，如果特斯拉季度末再进行减值测试，一季度就不会出现2700万美元损失，二季度也有机会避免减记。然而从实际情况来看，特斯拉记账非常审慎，因而可以提醒人们关注投资比特币的危险。
这一次，损失可能更严重
5月中旬，马斯克在推特上宣布，由于比特币的碳足迹令人不安，特斯拉不再接受比特币作为购买电动汽车的付款方式。此言一出，震惊市场。随之市场越发担心他完全放弃比特币，后来马斯克宣布，特斯拉不打算出售持有的比特币。
所以可以假设，目前特斯拉仍然持有买入时的90%，即4.21万枚比特币。
然而，特斯拉持有的比特币价值远远低于几周前。今年4月中旬，比特币创下64863美元的历史新高。当时，特斯拉持币的市值高达27.3亿美元，未实现和已实现的收益总额约为13.6亿美元，比一季度末增加1.5亿美元。
截至5月25日午后，比特币已经下跌41%至3.8万美元，特斯拉曾经高达13.6亿美元的收益减至3.78亿美元左右。
至于一季度，特斯拉透露剩余的4.21万枚比特币的“账面价值”为13.3亿美元。意味着平均每一枚的“基础价”为3.16万美元，不过在计算减值损失时平均价并不重要，也不能算特斯拉总体“盈利”。关键是当季交易所的最低价位。特斯拉买入时只要高于该价，就都必须按照最低价计算减值。减值金额为低价与特斯拉买入价之间的差额。
到目前为止，二季度的比特币最低价格出现在5月19日，跌至30682美元。当日，中国政府禁止银行和支付提供商接受加密货币。然而麻烦也出现了。我们并不知道特斯拉在1月1日至2月8日期间买入比特币时到底价位多少。如果平均价为3.16万美元，有一部分买入价肯定高于30682美元。而在特斯拉买入期间，只有十几天低于该价。
为了估算将来减值规模，这里可以做个简单的假设，即特斯拉买入的比特币有一半高于平均价3.16万美元，另一半价格低于该数字。假设特斯拉花2.95万美元买了2.15万个“便宜币”，另外2.15万个的买入价为3.37万美元（算下来平均价为3.16万美元）。
在这种情况下，特斯拉平均每枚比特币减值约3018美元（每枚33700美元减去当季低点30682美元）。二季度减值费用将达到6500万美元。
这听起来没有那么严重。但哪怕仅从会计角度看，特斯拉之前吹嘘的比特币投资居然赔钱，也会非常尴尬。马斯克可能为避免亏损，打破承诺出售比特币填上窟窿。问题是，价格已经下跌太多，想填补6500万美元的缺口就得大量抛售。据我估计，如果价格保持在当前38000美元的水平，特斯拉需要抛售10000枚，也就是持有比特币的四分之一才可以打平。
由于马斯克在比特币圈中是意见领袖，大规模抛售可能引发一众粉丝的恐慌，从而进一步推动比特币跳水。想象一下，价格回到12月初的2.5万美元，特斯拉的损失将达2.78亿美元。如果跌到2万美元呢？届时特斯拉一度“盈利”13亿美元的投资将亏损4.84亿美元。
请记住，过去四个季度扣除碳积分销售收入，特斯拉税前亏损达1.27亿美元，马斯克也承认，碳积分销售收入将迅速减少。如果比特币出现巨额亏损，就可能将2021年接下来甚至更长时间里销售汽车和电池的利润全部抹去。
然而，真正的问题是，比特币的价格走势向来跌宕起伏而且极难判断，特斯拉已然难测的未来收益也愈加存疑。如今特斯拉最不缺的就是不确定性，马斯克选择下注当今最变化多端的资产，只能在变数上平添变数。
之前马斯克用特斯拉股东的15亿美元玩比特币，刚开始可以说非常幸运。现在，他的运气则变得越来越差。谁知道下个月他手里的筹码还会不会比开始时多？
股东们已经不敢问出口，毕竟自从1月特斯拉股价见顶以来，股东的持股金额已经缩水了三分之一。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
事情的开始看起来就像是一场鲁莽的赌注，随着加密货币的走势逐渐疯狂，情况看起来也越来越离谱。
今年年初，埃隆•马斯克用特斯拉的15亿美元现金购买比特币，引发各界关注。随着加密货币比特币的价格飞涨，特斯拉的持币价值比买入时上涨超过13亿美元，尽管最近有所回落，特斯拉的账面利润仍然不错，只是获利收窄。
不过，财经媒体和华尔街分析师都没有注意到某些不利因素。特斯拉对比特币采取了特殊的会计处理，虽然投资总体盈利，但特斯拉在二季度将出现“减值”损失。如果比特币的价格维持在当前的38000美元左右，冲击就不会很大。但如果想抵消减值，特斯拉就要出售不少比特币，而这可能会冲击比特币市场。如果比特币触及最近低点，远低于3万美元，特斯拉就会遭受巨大损失，生产和销售电动汽车几个季度的利润将一笔抹去。
最重要的是，截至6月末财季的减值将提醒投资者，马斯克的买入行为相当于为波动极大的资产广为宣传，从而提升了风险，仅在5月中下旬的8天里，比特币从高点到低点的振幅就达10%，乃至更高。
之前人们普遍认为：“嘿，比特币市场看起来很疯狂，但这家伙是个天才——特斯拉在比特币上就赚了几十亿美元！”而现在的舆论则变成了“没有人知道比特币市场怎么发展，如果崩溃，就相当于在特斯拉藏了颗手榴弹。”
比特币对特斯拉造成的风险在华尔街引起了恐慌。
“很多投资者宁愿马斯克从未碰过比特币。”Wedbush Securities的分析师丹尼尔•艾夫斯表示。“重点应该放在交货、全球电动汽车浪潮以及解决芯片短缺问题。然而现在人们太关注比特币了。”他补充说，特别令人沮丧的是，马斯克最近对几个月前还曾经大肆赞扬的比特币态度大扭转，还冲击了特斯拉股价。
“就像点火自家房子。”他说，“比特币事件给特斯拉的故事蒙上了阴翳。而且全是自找麻烦。”
让我们来看看，为什么二季度比特币的会计规则将导致特斯拉亏损，以及如果比特币的价格大幅下滑，损失将有多惨重。
特斯拉在比特币上收益巨大
特斯拉在2月8日公布的2020年度报告（10K）中，首次宣布斥资15亿美元投资比特币。直到一季度10Q报告提供细节，投资者才能够算出公司购买了多少比特币、买入平均价格以及持有收益。
10Q报告称，截至3月31日，特斯拉持有比特币价值24.8亿美元。当天纽约证券交易所的收盘价为58919美元，因此可以估计特斯拉持有约4.21万枚比特币。
从2月初到3月底，特斯拉卖出了10%，价值2.68亿美元。之前其成本为1.4亿美元，因此收益为1.28亿美元。（通过计算可知，最多的时候特斯拉持有约4.68万枚比特币。）
看起来，特斯拉账面上的比特币价值加上出售所得总计27.48亿美元（24.8亿美元加上2.58亿美元）。众所周知，买入时花了15亿美元，3月31日特斯拉的已实现和未实现收益超过12亿美元，也就是说11个星期里的投资收益超过80%。特斯拉买入比特币均价为3.2万美元，到一季度末价格近5.9万美元。
特斯拉的烦心事：比特币特殊会计规则
刚开始，投身比特币看起来像大获成功，当季不包括向竞争对手出售碳积分，特斯拉税前利润仅1500万美元。从这个角度看，买卖比特币拉升了公司业绩。
但10Q报告提到了很少有人注意的内容，预示着二季度的情况，以及随后几个季度可能出现更大的问题。尽管特斯拉出售10%的比特币赚取了巨额利润，但还是被迫在税前利润里计入2700万美元“减值”。(净收益从1.28亿美元减至1.01亿美元。）
在此简单介绍下造成减值，且未来几个季度将形成更多亏损的会计规则。根据美国财务会计准则委员会的分类，加密货币属于“期限不确定的无形资产”。不过会计专家告诉《财富》杂志，公司在资产负债表中如何处理加密资产有很大的自由度。一种选择是将比特币的买入价格或“账面价值”与交易点或季度末“公允市场价值”比较。
如果6月30日的比特币价格低于特斯拉账面上的任何一部分币的买入价，就要计入“减值”或者减记，减值金额等于“账面价值”和“公允市场价值”之差，也就是买入价减去季度末市场价。
特斯拉显然并未采取“季度末比较”方法，而是随时减值法，季度中只要比特币的市场价低于持有任何一部分币的买入价时就要计减值。公司收集减值数据，季度末收集计入“重组”项。
换言之，如果特斯拉在2月初以3.5万美元买入一些比特币，大幅上涨之后在5月19日跌至3.1万美元（实际上就是如此），每一枚比特币就都要计4000美元减值。如果比特币反弹回到3.1万美元以上，特斯拉就不能重新计算币值并消除减值。减值将一直存在。事实上，即使整个投资组合的市场价格远远高于特斯拉的买入价，且持续一段时间，也无法算作盈利。
也就是说，当中只存在两种情况：如果持有比特币有收益，就要按照买入成本计算；如果出现减值，就按照最新更低的“账面价值”计算。
只有特斯拉出售比特币时，才能够计入利润。收益相当于比特币的账面价值和更高的卖出价的差额。简单地说，不管是一枚或很多枚，只要加密货币交易所里的比特币市价低于特斯拉买入价，特斯拉就要对相应的比特币计亏损（或减值）。市价高于账面价值时，则只能通过卖出换成现金获取收益。
一季度，特斯拉在买入少部分比特币之后跌破了原始成本，引发2700万美元减值。但由于大部分投资组合价格飙升，特斯拉以远高于买入价的价格出售了10%，从而获得了巨大收益。
特斯拉的做法稳健也极保守
看起来，特斯拉有两条路可以选，都能够满足美国财务会计准则委员会的无形资产规定。如之前提到，一种方法是只有当买入比特币的平均成本在季度末低于市场价格时，才出现账面损失；第二种方法则是账面上任何一批买入价超过交易所季度收盘价就进行减值。
“特斯拉之所以能够选择，主要因为美国财务会计准则委员会并未就比特币发布指导意见。”宾夕法尼亚州立大学的会计学教授埃德•凯茨表示。
Bastiat Capital的首席会计专家阿尔伯特•迈耶指出，特斯拉的做法相当谨慎，遵循了美国财务会计准则委员会的两条原则，分别为“及时性”和“个别计价”。
特斯拉计算减值时根据当前价格而不是季度末价格，体现了“及时性”。每当有比特币市场价低于买入价时就对其计算减记，则体现了“个别计价”。迈耶说：“个别计价和即时确认减值都非常谨慎，我认为没有问题。”
不过值得注意的是，如果特斯拉季度末再进行减值测试，一季度就不会出现2700万美元损失，二季度也有机会避免减记。然而从实际情况来看，特斯拉记账非常审慎，因而可以提醒人们关注投资比特币的危险。
这一次，损失可能更严重
5月中旬，马斯克在推特上宣布，由于比特币的碳足迹令人不安，特斯拉不再接受比特币作为购买电动汽车的付款方式。此言一出，震惊市场。随之市场越发担心他完全放弃比特币，后来马斯克宣布，特斯拉不打算出售持有的比特币。
所以可以假设，目前特斯拉仍然持有买入时的90%，即4.21万枚比特币。
然而，特斯拉持有的比特币价值远远低于几周前。今年4月中旬，比特币创下64863美元的历史新高。当时，特斯拉持币的市值高达27.3亿美元，未实现和已实现的收益总额约为13.6亿美元，比一季度末增加1.5亿美元。
截至5月25日午后，比特币已经下跌41%至3.8万美元，特斯拉曾经高达13.6亿美元的收益减至3.78亿美元左右。
至于一季度，特斯拉透露剩余的4.21万枚比特币的“账面价值”为13.3亿美元。意味着平均每一枚的“基础价”为3.16万美元，不过在计算减值损失时平均价并不重要，也不能算特斯拉总体“盈利”。关键是当季交易所的最低价位。特斯拉买入时只要高于该价，就都必须按照最低价计算减值。减值金额为低价与特斯拉买入价之间的差额。
到目前为止，二季度的比特币最低价格出现在5月19日，跌至30682美元。当日，中国政府禁止银行和支付提供商接受加密货币。然而麻烦也出现了。我们并不知道特斯拉在1月1日至2月8日期间买入比特币时到底价位多少。如果平均价为3.16万美元，有一部分买入价肯定高于30682美元。而在特斯拉买入期间，只有十几天低于该价。
为了估算将来减值规模，这里可以做个简单的假设，即特斯拉买入的比特币有一半高于平均价3.16万美元，另一半价格低于该数字。假设特斯拉花2.95万美元买了2.15万个“便宜币”，另外2.15万个的买入价为3.37万美元（算下来平均价为3.16万美元）。
在这种情况下，特斯拉平均每枚比特币减值约3018美元（每枚33700美元减去当季低点30682美元）。二季度减值费用将达到6500万美元。
这听起来没有那么严重。但哪怕仅从会计角度看，特斯拉之前吹嘘的比特币投资居然赔钱，也会非常尴尬。马斯克可能为避免亏损，打破承诺出售比特币填上窟窿。问题是，价格已经下跌太多，想填补6500万美元的缺口就得大量抛售。据我估计，如果价格保持在当前38000美元的水平，特斯拉需要抛售10000枚，也就是持有比特币的四分之一才可以打平。
由于马斯克在比特币圈中是意见领袖，大规模抛售可能引发一众粉丝的恐慌，从而进一步推动比特币跳水。想象一下，价格回到12月初的2.5万美元，特斯拉的损失将达2.78亿美元。如果跌到2万美元呢？届时特斯拉一度“盈利”13亿美元的投资将亏损4.84亿美元。
请记住，过去四个季度扣除碳积分销售收入，特斯拉税前亏损达1.27亿美元，马斯克也承认，碳积分销售收入将迅速减少。如果比特币出现巨额亏损，就可能将2021年接下来甚至更长时间里销售汽车和电池的利润全部抹去。
然而，真正的问题是，比特币的价格走势向来跌宕起伏而且极难判断，特斯拉已然难测的未来收益也愈加存疑。如今特斯拉最不缺的就是不确定性，马斯克选择下注当今最变化多端的资产，只能在变数上平添变数。
之前马斯克用特斯拉股东的15亿美元玩比特币，刚开始可以说非常幸运。现在，他的运气则变得越来越差。谁知道下个月他手里的筹码还会不会比开始时多？
股东们已经不敢问出口，毕竟自从1月特斯拉股价见顶以来，股东的持股金额已经缩水了三分之一。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
It looked like a reckless bet at the time, and in these days of crypto-madness, it's looking more outrageous by the day. Early this year, Elon Musk famously wagered $1.5 billion in Tesla's corporate cash on Bitcoin. As the signature crypto soared, the value of the EV-maker's holdings swelled by over $1.3 billion more than it paid, and despite the recent slide, Tesla's still sitting on a nice––though shrunken––paper profit.
But here's the downside that's gone mainly unnoticed by the financial media and Wall Street analysts. The special accounting treatment Tesla applies to its Bitcoin holdings will require the manufacturer Tesla to book losses called "impairments" in its second quarter, even though its overall investment is still above water. If Tesla's price holds at its current level of around $38,000, the hit won't be enormous. But to offset the write-downs, Tesla would need to sell a big chunk of the coins left in its coffers, a move that could send Bitcoin swooning. And if Bitcoin falls well below $30,000, a level it recently approached, Tesla will suffer losses big enough to erase several quarters of the profits it garners making and marketing EVs.
Most of all, the impairments in the June quarter will remind investors that Musk made an already risky stock a whole look riskier by taking a flyer on an ultra-volatile asset that's swung by 10% or more from highs to lows on eight days in mid-to-late May alone. The view that, "Hey, this might seem crazy, but the guy's a genius––just look at the billion-plus Tesla's making on Bitcoin!" is giving way to, "Nobody knows where this thing is headed, and if it collapses, Tesla's got a hand grenade buried in its warchest."
The treat posed by Bitcoin is causing consternation on Wall Street. "Many investors never wanted Musk to go down the Bitcoin path," says Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. "The focus should be on its progress in making deliveries, the global EV tidal wave, and getting through the chip shortage. Instead, too much attention's going to the Bitcoin piece." It's especially frustrating, he adds, that Musk's recently soured on the crypto that months before, he was lavishly praising, hammering the value of Tesla's holdings. "It was like burning down your own house," he says. "The Bitcoin piece has created a dark cloud over the whole story. And the damage is all self-inflicted."
Let's examine how the accounting rules governing Bitcoin will create losses for Tesla in Q2, and how deep those losses will go if the king of cryptos suffers a steep slide from here.
Early on, Tesla made huge paper gains on its Bitcoin wager
Tesla first unveiled its $1.5 billion Bitcoin investment in its 10K, published on February 8. But it wasn't until details emerged in its 10Q for the first quarter that investors could estimate how many coins it bought, the average price paid, and the gains on its holdings. The 10Q stated that as of March 31, Tesla owned $2.48 billion in Bitcoin. Since the price at the NYSE close that day was $58,919, we can estimate that its treasury held around 42,100 coins. Between early February and the end of March, Tesla sold 10% of its coins for $268 million. It had bought those batches for $140 million; hence, it pocketed a $128 million gain. (The math implies that at the peak, Tesla held some 46,800 coins.)
It appeared that the value of the Bitcoin still on Tesla's books, plus what it reaped on the sale, totaled $2.748 ($2.48 billion plus $258 million). Since its cost of acquiring all those coins was the celebrated $1.50 billion, Tesla on March 31 was triumphantly sitting on total realized and unrealized gains exceeding $1.2 billion, or more than 80% on its investment, all captured in eleven weeks. The coins it had purchased at an average price of $32,000 were by the the end of Q1 worth almost $59,000.
Tesla headache: the special accounting treatment for cryptocurrencies
At that point, the Bitcoin gambit looked like a big winner in a quarter where Tesla booked a pre-tax profit of just $15 million, excluding sales of regulatory credits to rivals. By that measure, it was only the Bitcoin sale that turned its results positive. But the 10Q contained a little-noticed item that foreshadows what's to come in Q2, and potentially bigger problems in subsequent quarters. Even though Tesla sold 10% of its coins for a huge profit, it was still obliged to book an "impairment" charge to pre-tax earnings of $27 million. (That write-down reduced its net gain from $128 million to $101 million.)
Here's a summary of the accounting rules that created the impairment, and will trigger more in reported losses in future quarters. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) classifies cryptocurrencies as "indefinite-lived intangible assets." But accounting experts tell Fortune that the standards allow companies wide latitude in how they choose to treat crypto assets on their balance sheets. One option is to compare the original purchase price, or "carrying value" of Bitcoin, say, to where it's trading, or its "fair market value" at the end of each quarter. Then, if Bitcoin's price on June 30 is below what Tesla paid for any of the tranches on its books, it would take an "impairment," or write-down equaling the difference between the "carrying value" and "fair market value–-the price it paid minus the lower price where it trades at the close of the quarter.
But Tesla apparently didn't adopt that "end of quarter" approach. Instead, it immediately takes an impairment anytime during the quarter that Bitcoin's market price falls below what it paid for any tranche of Bitcoin in its treasury. It collects and reports the total of those impairments in the "restructuring" category at the close of the quarter.
In other words, if Tesla bought a bunch of Bitcoin in early February at $35,000 and after a big jump, the price falls to $31,000 on May 19 (as actually occurred) it's obliged to take a $4,000 impairment on every one of those coins. But if Bitcoin vaults back above $31,000, Tesla doesn't get to mark the coins back up and eliminate the write-down. Those impairments are forever. In fact, even if market prices across the whole portfolio rise far above what Tesla paid, and that happened for awhile, it can't book a gain. Instead, it has to keep valuing the coins at their original cost so long as they're in the black, and at their new, reduced "carrying value" if they're impaired.
It's only when Tesla sells that it can register a profit. That gain amounts to the difference between the carrying value of coins and the hopefully higher numbers they fetch. Put simply, when prices on the crypto exchanges fall below what Tesla paid for a coin or bunch of coins, it posts a loss (or impairment) on that coin or batch. But when prices rise above those carrying values, it can only notch a gain by trading the coins for cash. In Q1, a small portion of what Tesla bought subsequently dropped below the coins' original cost, triggering the $27 million impairment. But since most of its portfolio soared in price, Tesla was able to garner a big gain by unloading 10% of its holdings at much more than it paid.
Tesla's approach is sound and ultra-conservative
It appears that Tesla could follow two different paths, and still satisfy FASB's guidelines for intangibles. As stated, one choice would be booking losses only when the average cost of its Bitcoin purchases fall below the market price at the end of the quarter; the second would consist of taking impairments on any individual batch on its books bought for more than the close-of-quarter prices on the exchanges. "The reason Tesla has all these options is that FASB has issued no guidance for Bitcoin," says Ed Ketz, an accounting professor at Penn State University.
Tesla is taking a cautious stance by following two FASB tenets, says Albert Meyer, a leading accounting expert at Bastiat Capital, "timeliness" and "specific identification." It achieves "timeliness" by booking the impairments as soon as they occur, based on current quotes, rather than based on prices at the end of the quarter. It practices "specific identification" by basing each write-down on the individual batches whose purchase prices fall below market prices. "The specific identification approach and immediacy of recognizing an impairment are prudent," says Meyer. "I have no problem with it."
It's noteworthy that if Tesla were testing for impairments at the end of each quarter, it wouldn't have shouldered that $27 million loss in Q1, and might avoid write-down altogether in Q2. Instead, its judicious bookkeeping will train a spotlight on the dangers of its Bitcoin adventure.
This time, the impairments are likely to be bigger
In mid-May, Musk shocked the markets by tweeting that due to Bitcoin's troubling carbon footprint, Tesla would no longer accept coins as payment for its EVs. But amid rising fears he'd bail on Bitcoin entirely, Musk later declared the Tesla didn't plan to sell any of the coins still in its treasury. So we can assume that as of today, it still holds 90% of its original purchases, or 42,100 Bitcoin.
Those coins, however, are worth far less than just a few weeks ago. In mid-April, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $64,863. At that point, Tesla's trove boasted a market value of $2.73 billion, putting its total unrealized and realized gains around $1.36 billion, $150 million more than at the end of Q1. Since then, Bitcoin has sunk by 41% to $38,000 as of mid-afternoon on May 25. Tesla one-time $1.36 billion windfall has shrunk to around $378 million.
For Q1, Tesla revealed that its "carrying value" for those remaining 42,100 Bitcoin is $1.330 billion. That means the average "basis" for the coins still on its books is $31,600. But for calculating impairments, the average doesn't matter, nor does it count that Tesla's "made money" overall. Once again, the key number is the lowest quote posted on the exchanges during the current quarter. Any coins that Tesla bought above that level must be marked down to that bottom price. The difference between the low point and the higher prices Tesla paid for any coin or bucket of coins constitutes the impairment.
Thus far in Q2, Bitcoin's basement price came on May 19 when the crypto slumped to $30,682. That's the day the Chinese government barred banks and payments providers from accepting cryptocurrencies. Here's where it gets tricky. We don't know how much Tesla originally paid for different tranches of Bitcoin, all acquired between January 1 and February 8. But to arrive at an average of $31,600 across all purchases, it must have acquired bushels at over $30,682. During the span when it was buying, prices fell below that level on only a dozen days.
To gauge the possible size of the looming charge, I'll make the simple assumption that Tesla bought half the coins still on its books at more than its average acquisition price of $31,600, and half at less than that number. Let's posit that it paid $29,500 for the "bargain" 21,500 coins, and $33,700 for the other 21,500 (that's an average price of $31,600).
In that case, Tesla faces in impairment of approximately $3,018 per coin (the $33,700 it paid per coin minus the quarter's low point of $30,682). The Q2 charge would come to $65 million.
Doesn't sound too bad. But just the idea that for accounting purposes, Tesla lost money on its vaunted Bitcoin wager would be highly embarrassing. Musk might feel obligated to break his pledge and offset the charge by selling Bitcoin that's harboring gains. The rub is that prices have fallen so far that he'd have to dump a lot of it to fill the $65 million hole. By my estimate, if prices remain at today's $38,000 level, Tesla would need to offload 10,000 coins, a quarter of its holdings, to get square.
Since Musk is Bitcoin's chief influencer, a sale that size could spook its fans and send their cherished token diving once again. Or imagine that prices return to their early December level of $25,000. Tesla would then suffer $278 million in impairments. Or how about $20,000? At that level, Tesla would be taking a $484 million loss on a portfolio that was once $1.3 billion "in the money."
Keep in mind that in the past four quarters, Tesla posted a pre-tax deficit of $127 million after subtracting its revenues from the sale of regulatory credits, a fount that Musk acknowledges will rapidly decline. A big loss on Bitcoin could wipe out, or seriously dent, its profits from selling cars and batteries, if any, for the rest of 2021 or even longer.
The real problem is that Bitcoin's lurching, totally unforeseeable trajectory makes Tesla's already hard-to-predict future earnings even foggier. The last thing Tesla needs is uncertainty, and by embracing what may be the most mercurial major asset class of modern times, Musk's doubled down on risk. Musk got stupendously lucky playing in the Bitcoin casino with $1.5 billion staked by Tesla's shareholders. Now, his luck is fading. Who knows if next month he'll still have more chips than when he started? That's just the kind of question his shareholders, who've seen one-third of their holdings vanish since Tesla's shares peaked January, don't want to be asking.
