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Coinbase上演“内部套现大甩卖”,还值得投资吗?

Coinbase上演“内部套现大甩卖”,还值得投资吗?

Anne Sraders 2021-04-19
有人认为,这支股票有高达98%的上涨空间。

上周三,美国数字货币平台Coinbase正式挂牌上市。不过那些看好数字货币的投资者要注意了——投资这支股票,很可能是有风险的。

风险已经显现。Coinbase上市后,CEO布莱恩阿姆斯特朗(Brian Armstrong)售出了其749999股股票,套现2.92亿美元。另据Coinbase投资者关系网站的文件显示,Coinbase内部人士共出售了12965079股股票。按照上周五344.38美元的收盘价计算,总价值约为45亿美元。

当然,看涨Coinbase的分析师也不在少数,有些分析师还给出了极为乐观的估值,并表示这支股票有巨大的看涨空间。

D.A. Davidson公司的机构投资研究主管吉尔·卢里亚对《财富》表示:“在我看来,随着时间的推移,数字货币将成为科技行业增长最快的资产类别,我们认为这也是一个很好的投资途径。”上周四,他已经将Coinbase的目标股价提高到每股650美元。

不过,他也并未掩饰这支股票的投资风险:“普通的散户投资者如果想入手这支股票,首先要了解Coinbase的业务存在的层层风险。”比如数字货币资产本身的巨大波动性,Coinbase平台被黑客攻陷的风险,以及不可避免的竞争风险等等。但卢里亚也表示:“我们之所以推荐Coinbase,是因为我们相信它的潜在回报很高,与它的风险水平是成正比的。”

卢里亚的目标价格显然是很有诱惑力的。Coinbase上市的第一天,它的股价收于328美元。按照卢里亚的预期,这支股票有高达98%的涨价空间。卢比亚认为,自己的估值是合理的,因为他比较的对象并不是其他数字货币交易平台(他认为,Coinbase真正的竞争对手并不是这些交易平台),而是其他高增长的科技股,比如Zoom、Okta和Shopify等等。这些股票有一个共同的特点,就是它们都处在某个快速增长的领域,这些领域又拥有巨大的市场潜力。“这些股票具有同样的潜力,它们都是某个快速增长的市场上的领军者,而它们所在的市场具有极大的增长潜力。我对Coinbase的看法也是这样的。”

投资公司BTIG的分析师马克·帕尔默等人也对Coinbase给予了“买入”评级,并把它的目标价格定在500美元。他指出:“这家公司有好几种办法,可以充分利用先发优势,为主流数字货币投资者打造入口,同时实现收入来源的多样化(2020年,该公司95%的净收入来自交易费)。另外,它越来越强大的平台也很适合机构投资者,未来,机构的入局将成为数字货币领域的一个关键增长因素。”

帕尔默告诉《财富》,他认为Coinbase有能力在整个数字货币市场上占据更大份额(目前,Coinbase占据了全球数字货币资产的11.3%)。他还表示:“对于波动性如此之大的一类资产,大家通常都会采取这样的交易策略,也就是利用股价下跌的时候加仓,等股价上涨的时候赚钱。所以,你很可能看到一些投资者采用这样的策略,围绕一个核心价位建仓。”

总体上,分析师们是建议投资者关注这支股票的。未来几周到几个月,这支股票将经历一个价格发现的过程。大家也要关注Coinbase即将发布的收益报告。

Coinbase的“卖点”

D.A. Davidson公司的卢里亚指出,从基本面看,投资Coinbase股票的一个重要原因,在于“它是一个多元化的数字货币资产篮子,至于哪种数字货币资产更为火爆,这并不重要。就像Coinbase所说的,‘你不需要自己去弄清楚。’对于没有在资本市场接触过数字货币的增长型投资者来说,从Coinbase的股票入手,也是试水数字货币的一个很好的方式。”

目前,有一位知名投资者已经在Coinbase上下了重注,他就是著名的基金经理、科技公司ARK投资的创始人、CIO兼CEO凯西·伍德。据传在上周三,也就是Coinbase上市当天,伍德就认购了74.9万股Coinbase股份,她旗下的三支基金共计吃下了2.46亿美元的Coinbase股票。

伍德从来不害怕采取与业界共识相反的立场。多年以来,她都是比特币的坚定支持者。她的这笔投资也没有让华尔街感到丝毫意外。不过就连伍德也认为,这支股票的走势会很不稳定。她在上周三接受彭博社采访时表示:“我们认为,这支股票会有很大的波动。比较投资者和分析师对Coinbase的理解看,它的走势必然是不稳定的。”

她补充道:“我们将围绕这种波动性,选择我们的位置。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

上周三,美国数字货币平台Coinbase正式挂牌上市。不过那些看好数字货币的投资者要注意了——投资这支股票,很可能是有风险的。

风险已经显现。Coinbase上市后,CEO布莱恩阿姆斯特朗(Brian Armstrong)售出了其749999股股票,套现2.92亿美元。另据Coinbase投资者关系网站的文件显示,Coinbase内部人士共出售了12965079股股票。按照上周五344.38美元的收盘价计算,总价值约为45亿美元。

当然,看涨Coinbase的分析师也不在少数,有些分析师还给出了极为乐观的估值,并表示这支股票有巨大的看涨空间。

D.A. Davidson公司的机构投资研究主管吉尔·卢里亚对《财富》表示:“在我看来,随着时间的推移,数字货币将成为科技行业增长最快的资产类别,我们认为这也是一个很好的投资途径。”上周四,他已经将Coinbase的目标股价提高到每股650美元。

不过,他也并未掩饰这支股票的投资风险:“普通的散户投资者如果想入手这支股票,首先要了解Coinbase的业务存在的层层风险。”比如数字货币资产本身的巨大波动性,Coinbase平台被黑客攻陷的风险,以及不可避免的竞争风险等等。但卢里亚也表示:“我们之所以推荐Coinbase,是因为我们相信它的潜在回报很高,与它的风险水平是成正比的。”

卢里亚的目标价格显然是很有诱惑力的。Coinbase上市的第一天,它的股价收于328美元。按照卢里亚的预期,这支股票有高达98%的涨价空间。卢比亚认为,自己的估值是合理的,因为他比较的对象并不是其他数字货币交易平台(他认为,Coinbase真正的竞争对手并不是这些交易平台),而是其他高增长的科技股,比如Zoom、Okta和Shopify等等。这些股票有一个共同的特点,就是它们都处在某个快速增长的领域,这些领域又拥有巨大的市场潜力。“这些股票具有同样的潜力,它们都是某个快速增长的市场上的领军者,而它们所在的市场具有极大的增长潜力。我对Coinbase的看法也是这样的。”

投资公司BTIG的分析师马克·帕尔默等人也对Coinbase给予了“买入”评级,并把它的目标价格定在500美元。他指出:“这家公司有好几种办法,可以充分利用先发优势,为主流数字货币投资者打造入口,同时实现收入来源的多样化(2020年,该公司95%的净收入来自交易费)。另外,它越来越强大的平台也很适合机构投资者,未来,机构的入局将成为数字货币领域的一个关键增长因素。”

帕尔默告诉《财富》,他认为Coinbase有能力在整个数字货币市场上占据更大份额(目前,Coinbase占据了全球数字货币资产的11.3%)。他还表示:“对于波动性如此之大的一类资产,大家通常都会采取这样的交易策略,也就是利用股价下跌的时候加仓,等股价上涨的时候赚钱。所以,你很可能看到一些投资者采用这样的策略,围绕一个核心价位建仓。”

总体上,分析师们是建议投资者关注这支股票的。未来几周到几个月,这支股票将经历一个价格发现的过程。大家也要关注Coinbase即将发布的收益报告。

Coinbase的“卖点”

D.A. Davidson公司的卢里亚指出,从基本面看,投资Coinbase股票的一个重要原因,在于“它是一个多元化的数字货币资产篮子,至于哪种数字货币资产更为火爆,这并不重要。就像Coinbase所说的,‘你不需要自己去弄清楚。’对于没有在资本市场接触过数字货币的增长型投资者来说,从Coinbase的股票入手,也是试水数字货币的一个很好的方式。”

目前,有一位知名投资者已经在Coinbase上下了重注,他就是著名的基金经理、科技公司ARK投资的创始人、CIO兼CEO凯西·伍德。据传在上周三,也就是Coinbase上市当天,伍德就认购了74.9万股Coinbase股份,她旗下的三支基金共计吃下了2.46亿美元的Coinbase股票。

伍德从来不害怕采取与业界共识相反的立场。多年以来,她都是比特币的坚定支持者。她的这笔投资也没有让华尔街感到丝毫意外。不过就连伍德也认为,这支股票的走势会很不稳定。她在上周三接受彭博社采访时表示:“我们认为,这支股票会有很大的波动。比较投资者和分析师对Coinbase的理解看,它的走势必然是不稳定的。”

她补充道:“我们将围绕这种波动性,选择我们的位置。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

For the crypto-enthusiast investor eyeing Coinbase after its public debut on Wednesday, take note: Buying into the cryptocurrency exchange might be a bumpy ride.

But bullish analysts are already coming out with some optimistic estimates of where Coinbase could be valued—and they're saying the stock has huge potential.

In the crypto-assets space, "I expect that over time it's going to be one of the fastest-growing categories in technology," and "we think this is a great way to invest," Gil Luria, head of institutional research at D.A. Davidson, told Fortune after raising his price target for Coinbase to $650 per share on Thursday.

However, he's not sugarcoating it: "Retail investors that are looking at investing in Coinbase need to understand the layers and layers of risk to Coinbase's business," including the inherent volatility of crypto assets themselves, the threat of Coinbase getting hacked, and inevitable competition crowding in. But, Luria says, "the reason we recommend Coinbase is we believe that the reward is potentially so high that it justifies that level of risk."

Luria's price target is certainly heady; it suggests some 98% upside from where Coinbase closed on its first day of trading at $328 a pop. But he believes the valuation is warranted, given that he's comparing the company not to other cryptocurrency brokerages (which, he says, there aren't any true competitors), but to other high-growth stocks like Zoom, Okta, and Shopify in fast-growing areas that also boast sky-high valuations. "They have the same impact; they're leading in a very fast-growing market that really has open-ended growth. And that's how I see Coinbase as well," he says.

Others, like Mark Palmer, an analyst at investment firm BTIG, put a "buy" rating on the stock with a $500 price target. He notes that "the company has several avenues through which it could build upon its first-mover advantage as an on-ramp for mainstream crypto investors by diversifying its revenue stream away from transaction fees (96% of 2020 net revenues) and leveraging its increasingly robust platform for institutional investors, whose adoption of crypto represents a key driver of growth going forward," he wrote in a Thursday note alongside initiating coverage.

Palmer told Fortune following the report that he's bullish on Coinbase's ability to take an increasing chunk of the total crypto market (currently at 11.3% of global crypto assets, he notes), and believes, "Any name that has this kind of volatility lends itself to a trading strategy: taking advantage of the dips, adding at that point, shaping a position as the stock price increases, so I think that trading around a core position is probably going to be a strategy that you see some investors take," he suggests.

Overall, analysts recommend keeping an eye on the stock as the markets go through price discovery in the next few weeks and months, and watching Coinbase's upcoming earnings reports.

The “pitch for Coinbase”

But ultimately the "pitch for Coinbase," according to D.A. Davidson's Luria, is that it's "a diversified basket of crypto assets; it doesn't matter which crypto asset wins," he argues. "What Coinbase does is it says, 'You don't have to figure it out,'" he notes, adding that "for growth investors that don't really have exposure to crypto through the capital markets, this is a really good way to have that exposure."

One investor already going big on Coinbase? Famed money manager Cathie Wood, the founder, CIO, and CEO of tech-focused firm ARK Invest. Wood snapped up over 749,000 shares of Coinbase at its debut on Wednesday, taking a roughly $246 million stake in the company across three of her funds.

Wood, who's never been afraid to take a counter-consensus stance, has been a staunch believer in Bitcoin for years, and her move to invest was anything but a shocker to the Street. But even Wood is expecting a rocky road for the stock: She told Bloomberg on Wednesday, "We expect tremendous volatility in this; it's going to be unstable in terms of investors and analysts understanding what Coinbase actually is," Wood said.

"We'll pick our spots around volatility," she added.

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