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经济复苏,通胀上行,这7只美股有望受益

经济复苏,通胀上行,这7只美股有望受益

Anne Sraders 2021-03-23
美国银行的策略师认为,市场目前处在通胀势头往往更强劲的“中周期”阶段。

当前,板块轮换投资流行一时。

美国银行(Bank of America)当然不会错过。2020年是科技股和成长股大涨的一年。如今,美国银行正在研究,随着全世界恢复正常,通胀率再次开始上涨,有哪些股票将从中受益。

事实上,有些市场预言家预测利率(以及10年期国债收益率)上行的幅度和速度将远超华尔街预期。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的高级投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙最近告诉《财富》杂志:“如果[10年期国债收益率]在5月前达到2%,你会看到成长股再次品尝到‘真正的痛苦’,而且这种价值交易的频率会进一步加快。我认为轮换交易的趋势会继续下去。”

无论利率是否会在两个月内达到2%,美国银行的策略师们在3月15日的报告中写道,通货膨胀即将到来。

美国银行的策略师认为,市场目前处在通胀势头往往更强劲的“中周期”阶段。策略师写道:“在这个阶段,小盘股和价值股的表现通常会胜过大盘股和成长股,我们预测今年会出现的企业恢复盈利和经济反弹会进一步支撑这种行情。”

美国银行的预测不只是基于通胀率上升的预期,也是考虑到目前的政治体制。策略师们写道:“低通胀和股票市场中大公司继续扩大比重的寡头垄断趋势(在近几十年导致收入和财富分配不均达到最严重的程度,工资水平停滞不前)已经持续多年,但拜登政府支持小企业的立场和对社会/收入公平的重视,以及在大型科技公司等领域的监管与反垄断情绪,可能最终改变这种局面。”

美国银行写道,虽然小盘股最近表现不错(今年到目前为止,罗素2000指数上涨了19%),但按照远期市盈率计算,小盘股的定价依旧比大盘股低约10%。在小盘股中,能源和材料领域的股票交易价格依旧低于历史水平。

下一阶段值得关注的7只股票

美国银行的策略师列举了“可能从经济复苏(带来经济重启/服务消费或资本支出)和再通胀(通货膨胀的受益者拥有定价能力或利润驱动力)中受益并且没有估值过高的”几只股票。以下是该银行选出的7只股票。

美国银行分析师选择了康卡斯特(Comcast),因为随着主题公园恢复开放,影视节目恢复制作,公司将从中受益;迪士尼(Disney),对迪士尼乐园被压抑的需求将得到释放,并且影院将恢复营业;万豪国际(Marriott),美国银行的分析师认为,该公司将从通货膨胀中受益,“因为上涨的房价和收入会转移到公司的收费模式”;赫斯公司(Hess),该银行首选的石油天然气股票;信安金融(Principal Financial),分析师指出,作为一家人寿保险公司,“与通货膨胀基本是正相关的关系”;艾默生电气公司(Emerson Electric),应该是油价反弹的“主要”受益者;以及博通(Broadcom),因为它有望从企业恢复支出和持续开展5G网络建设中受益。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

当前,板块轮换投资流行一时。

美国银行(Bank of America)当然不会错过。2020年是科技股和成长股大涨的一年。如今,美国银行正在研究,随着全世界恢复正常,通胀率再次开始上涨,有哪些股票将从中受益。

事实上,有些市场预言家预测利率(以及10年期国债收益率)上行的幅度和速度将远超华尔街预期。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的高级投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙最近告诉《财富》杂志:“如果[10年期国债收益率]在5月前达到2%,你会看到成长股再次品尝到‘真正的痛苦’,而且这种价值交易的频率会进一步加快。我认为轮换交易的趋势会继续下去。”

无论利率是否会在两个月内达到2%,美国银行的策略师们在3月15日的报告中写道,通货膨胀即将到来。

美国银行的策略师认为,市场目前处在通胀势头往往更强劲的“中周期”阶段。策略师写道:“在这个阶段,小盘股和价值股的表现通常会胜过大盘股和成长股,我们预测今年会出现的企业恢复盈利和经济反弹会进一步支撑这种行情。”

美国银行的预测不只是基于通胀率上升的预期,也是考虑到目前的政治体制。策略师们写道:“低通胀和股票市场中大公司继续扩大比重的寡头垄断趋势(在近几十年导致收入和财富分配不均达到最严重的程度,工资水平停滞不前)已经持续多年,但拜登政府支持小企业的立场和对社会/收入公平的重视,以及在大型科技公司等领域的监管与反垄断情绪,可能最终改变这种局面。”

美国银行写道,虽然小盘股最近表现不错(今年到目前为止,罗素2000指数上涨了19%),但按照远期市盈率计算,小盘股的定价依旧比大盘股低约10%。在小盘股中,能源和材料领域的股票交易价格依旧低于历史水平。

下一阶段值得关注的7只股票

美国银行的策略师列举了“可能从经济复苏(带来经济重启/服务消费或资本支出)和再通胀(通货膨胀的受益者拥有定价能力或利润驱动力)中受益并且没有估值过高的”几只股票。以下是该银行选出的7只股票。

美国银行分析师选择了康卡斯特(Comcast),因为随着主题公园恢复开放,影视节目恢复制作,公司将从中受益;迪士尼(Disney),对迪士尼乐园被压抑的需求将得到释放,并且影院将恢复营业;万豪国际(Marriott),美国银行的分析师认为,该公司将从通货膨胀中受益,“因为上涨的房价和收入会转移到公司的收费模式”;赫斯公司(Hess),该银行首选的石油天然气股票;信安金融(Principal Financial),分析师指出,作为一家人寿保险公司,“与通货膨胀基本是正相关的关系”;艾默生电气公司(Emerson Electric),应该是油价反弹的“主要”受益者;以及博通(Broadcom),因为它有望从企业恢复支出和持续开展5G网络建设中受益。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The rotation trade is all the rage.

And Bank of America certainly isn’t missing out. Coming off a huge year for tech and growth stocks in 2020, the bank is now looking at stocks that are poised to benefit as the world gets back to normal and inflation starts to pick up once more.

Indeed, some market prognosticators are expecting rates (and the 10-year Treasury yield) to rise higher—and faster—than some on the Street expect. “If we go to 2% [10-year yield] by May, you’re going to see growth go through another bout of real pain, and you’re going to see further acceleration into this value trade,” Morgan Stanley’s senior portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon recently told Fortune. “I think the rotation will continue.”

Whether or not rates get to that level in two months, strategists at Bank of America argue that inflation is coming, as they wrote in a March 15 report.

The BofA strategists suggest that the market is now “mid-cycle” where inflation is typically stronger (see BofA’s chart). “In this phase,” the strategists wrote, “small caps and value have typically outperformed large caps and growth—further supported by the profits recovery and economic rebound we expect this year.”

BofA’s reasoning is based not only on rising inflation expectations but also the current political regime. “After years of low inflation and oligopolistic trends within the equity market in which larger companies have continued to take share (contributing to peak income and wealth inequality and suppressing wages in recent decades), this could finally be reversing given pro–small-business sentiment and a focus on social/income equality by the Biden administration, along with potential regulation and anti-monopolistic sentiment in areas like Big Tech,” the strategists wrote.

Though small-caps have done well lately (The Russell 2000 is up 19% so far this year), they are still about 10% cheaper than large-caps based on forward price-to-earnings, BofA wrote. And within small-caps, areas like energy and materials are still trading inexpensively based on historical levels.

7 stocks for the next phase

BofA strategists outlined a group of stocks that “appear poised to benefit from both the recovery (exposed to reopening/services spend or capex) and reflation (inflation beneficiary with pricing power or margin drivers), and where valuation isn’t stretched.” Here are seven of the bank’s picks.

BofA analysts like Comcast, as it should benefit from a return to theme parks and production of shows and films; Disney, with pent-up demand for its theme parks and exposure to the reopening of theaters; Marriott, which should benefit from inflation “as higher room rates and revenues pass through to the company’s fee-based model,” per the BofA analyst; Hess, a preferred oil and gas player to the bank; Principal Financial, which, as a life insurer, is “generally positively correlated to inflation,” the analysts note; Emerson Electric, which should be a “key” beneficiary of a rebound in oil prices; and Broadcom, as it’s poised to benefit from the reopening of enterprise spending and the continued rollout of 5G.

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