道指突破33,000点，部分投资者却开始担忧
除非公司利润大幅上涨能挽救局面，否则美国股市将陷入大麻烦。超级乐观的场景要变为现实，股票收益需要吞噬掉很大一部分经济份额，但这种情况似乎不可能出现。华尔街的支持者们声称丰厚的利润已是囊中之物。对于投资者们而言，相信这种“天降神迹”般的预测，等于纵身跃下悬崖。
在新冠疫情期间，大盘股股价暴涨与疫情前几年的主流趋势完全背道而驰。从2016年年中到2019年年末，标普500指数的走势实际上与每股收益率步伐一致。每股收益率始终以每年15%的速度增长。在这三年半黄金时期，标普指数上涨54%到3231点，每股收益更是增长了高达60%，从每股86.92美元增长到史上最高的139.47美元。由于收益丰厚，因此貌似过高的估值并没有让热情的投资者感到烦恼。在此期间，标普市盈率倍数实际上有小幅下降，从25.3下降到23.2。
支持牛市的理由是每股收益会继续以两位数上涨，而华尔街预测合理的市盈率倍数即使不会增长，至少会保持稳定。股指每年上涨10%以上，似乎成了新常态。
当然，新冠疫情打破了人们对利润的预期，但股价却没有受到影响。标普指数依旧在按照它轻快的节奏起舞。显然，疫情导致的收益下滑只是一次性的灾难，而且每股收益必定会反弹。但问题在于：每股收益必须恢复到远高于疫情之前的最高水平，才能让股市的估值看起来更合理。否则，股民们就会像动画片里的威利狼一样，在巨大的峡谷上方原地飞奔，下一刻就会坠入深渊，而每股收益极有可能无法达到这样的水平。
标普调查的分析师预测，2021年的每股收益将达到157.12美元。这比2019年的最高点大幅上涨了12.7%。即使我们假设标普指数在圣帕特里克节收于3970点之后，在2021年的剩余时间保持平稳，它的市盈率倍数也只有25.3。这已经使股票的成本比2019年第4季度高了近10%，而当时的市盈率倍数已经是自大衰退结束以来的历史新高。
华尔街对收益的预测几乎总是过于乐观。但如果你真正相信标普指数依旧有上涨空间，你也必须相信每股收益157美元甚至更高是绝对能够达到的水平。这个预测有机会实现吗？一个有效的指标是衡量标普指数的总估值与美国经济产值的比率。这可以分为两个部分。首先是确定在起点，即2019年底，标普指数总估值占国民收入总值的比例过低还是过高。然后确定股票收益的增长速度需要比合理预测的未来GDP增速更快、更慢还是持平，才能让市盈率倍数和股票收益占国民收入总值的比例看起来合情合理。
第一个指标让人感到不安。按照历史标准，在2019年第4季度，收益已经过高。标普指数的综合市值已经相当于GDP的126%。这比2016年中期的99%提高了超过五分之一，当时美国经济正处在历史性的经济繁荣期。经济学家罗伯特·席勒发明的周期调整性市盈率指数显示，2019年的每股收益到2019年年末提高了10%至15%。
第二，今年美国经济确实会迎来大幅增长。国会预算办公室预测，2021年，包括通货膨胀在内，美国的GDP将较上一年增长6.3%。这听起来很美好，但我们要考虑一个问题：2021年的预测比2019年的数据只增长了3.8%。高度乐观的预测显示，在两年内，每股收益率增长将与GDP保持同步，即增长3.8%。如果我们以2019年第4季度新冠疫情爆发之前标普指数的基准每股收益139.47美元作为起点，到今年年底每股收益将达到145美元。
按照依旧乐观的预测，如果股市在今年剩余时间横盘整理，标普指数年底的市盈率倍数将达到27.6，比新冠疫情之前的水平高19%，比疫情之前三十年的平均水平高近40%。但这并不是华尔街的预测。高盛、瑞士信贷和摩根士丹利的市场策略师都认为标普指数在目前的基础上涨幅将超过8%。如果标普指数确实能达到高盛和瑞士信贷预测的4300点，按每股收益146美元计算，市盈率倍数为29.5。
关键在于利润需要消耗多少GDP。假设标普指数维持在目前的3970点，它到年底的总估值也将达到34万亿美元。这相当于今年预测的GDP的152%。我们以前从未看到过如此高的数字，这一次也不太可能出现。这个结果意味着分配给劳动者的收入减少，更多资本将流入股东手中。这不可能发生。
利润不可能永远上涨，投资者只要意识到这一点就会使牛市结束。而且这种疯狂持续的时间越长，后果就会越严重。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
除非公司利润大幅上涨能挽救局面，否则美国股市将陷入大麻烦。超级乐观的场景要变为现实，股票收益需要吞噬掉很大一部分经济份额，但这种情况似乎不可能出现。华尔街的支持者们声称丰厚的利润已是囊中之物。对于投资者们而言，相信这种“天降神迹”般的预测，等于纵身跃下悬崖。
在新冠疫情期间，大盘股股价暴涨与疫情前几年的主流趋势完全背道而驰。从2016年年中到2019年年末，标普500指数的走势实际上与每股收益率步伐一致。每股收益率始终以每年15%的速度增长。在这三年半黄金时期，标普指数上涨54%到3231点，每股收益更是增长了高达60%，从每股86.92美元增长到史上最高的139.47美元。由于收益丰厚，因此貌似过高的估值并没有让热情的投资者感到烦恼。在此期间，标普市盈率倍数实际上有小幅下降，从25.3下降到23.2。
支持牛市的理由是每股收益会继续以两位数上涨，而华尔街预测合理的市盈率倍数即使不会增长，至少会保持稳定。股指每年上涨10%以上，似乎成了新常态。
当然，新冠疫情打破了人们对利润的预期，但股价却没有受到影响。标普指数依旧在按照它轻快的节奏起舞。显然，疫情导致的收益下滑只是一次性的灾难，而且每股收益必定会反弹。但问题在于：每股收益必须恢复到远高于疫情之前的最高水平，才能让股市的估值看起来更合理。否则，股民们就会像动画片里的威利狼一样，在巨大的峡谷上方原地飞奔，下一刻就会坠入深渊，而每股收益极有可能无法达到这样的水平。
标普调查的分析师预测，2021年的每股收益将达到157.12美元。这比2019年的最高点大幅上涨了12.7%。即使我们假设标普指数在圣帕特里克节收于3970点之后，在2021年的剩余时间保持平稳，它的市盈率倍数也只有25.3。这已经使股票的成本比2019年第4季度高了近10%，而当时的市盈率倍数已经是自大衰退结束以来的历史新高。
华尔街对收益的预测几乎总是过于乐观。但如果你真正相信标普指数依旧有上涨空间，你也必须相信每股收益157美元甚至更高是绝对能够达到的水平。这个预测有机会实现吗？一个有效的指标是衡量标普指数的总估值与美国经济产值的比率。这可以分为两个部分。首先是确定在起点，即2019年底，标普指数总估值占国民收入总值的比例过低还是过高。然后确定股票收益的增长速度需要比合理预测的未来GDP增速更快、更慢还是持平，才能让市盈率倍数和股票收益占国民收入总值的比例看起来合情合理。
第一个指标让人感到不安。按照历史标准，在2019年第4季度，收益已经过高。标普指数的综合市值已经相当于GDP的126%。这比2016年中期的99%提高了超过五分之一，当时美国经济正处在历史性的经济繁荣期。经济学家罗伯特·席勒发明的周期调整性市盈率指数显示，2019年的每股收益到2019年年末提高了10%至15%。
第二，今年美国经济确实会迎来大幅增长。国会预算办公室预测，2021年，包括通货膨胀在内，美国的GDP将较上一年增长6.3%。这听起来很美好，但我们要考虑一个问题：2021年的预测比2019年的数据只增长了3.8%。高度乐观的预测显示，在两年内，每股收益率增长将与GDP保持同步，即增长3.8%。如果我们以2019年第4季度新冠疫情爆发之前标普指数的基准每股收益139.47美元作为起点，到今年年底每股收益将达到145美元。
按照依旧乐观的预测，如果股市在今年剩余时间横盘整理，标普指数年底的市盈率倍数将达到27.6，比新冠疫情之前的水平高19%，比疫情之前三十年的平均水平高近40%。但这并不是华尔街的预测。高盛、瑞士信贷和摩根士丹利的市场策略师都认为标普指数在目前的基础上涨幅将超过8%。如果标普指数确实能达到高盛和瑞士信贷预测的4300点，按每股收益146美元计算，市盈率倍数为29.5。
关键在于利润需要消耗多少GDP。假设标普指数维持在目前的3970点，它到年底的总估值也将达到34万亿美元。这相当于今年预测的GDP的152%。我们以前从未看到过如此高的数字，这一次也不太可能出现。这个结果意味着分配给劳动者的收入减少，更多资本将流入股东手中。这不可能发生。
利润不可能永远上涨，投资者只要意识到这一点就会使牛市结束。而且这种疯狂持续的时间越长，后果就会越严重。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Unless rampaging profits ride to the rescue, the stock market's in big trouble. For the ultra-bullish scenario to triumph, earnings would need to devour a seemingly impossible share of the economy. The Wall Street pros claim the profit bonanza is in the bag. For investors, following that leap-of-faith forecast could mean leaping off a cliff.
The explosion in big cap stock prices during the COVID pandemic is a total departure from the trend that reigned in the years preceding the cataclysm. From mid-2016 to the close of 2019, the S&P 500 rose practically in lock-step with earnings-per-share that grew consistently at an annual clip of 15%. In those three-and-a-half golden years, the S&P rose 54% to 3231, and profits waxed even more, by 60% from $86.92 a share to an all-time peak of $139.47. Because earnings were so strong, the enthusiasts didn't fret over what appeared as pricey valuations. During that span, the S&P's price-to-earnings (PE) multiple actually fell slightly, from 25.3 to 23.2.
The bull case held that profits would keep climbing at in double digits, and what Wall Street portrayed as reasonable multiples would at least hold steady, if not increase. An index advancing at well over 10% a year appeared the new normal.
The COVID crisis, of course, exploded the expectations for profits, but not for prices––the S&P kept dancing to its own, jaunty beat. It's obvious that pandemic-driven collapse in earnings is a one-off disaster, and that profits will recover. But here's the rub: Profits must roar back to levels far above their pre-COVID records for valuations to look even remotely reasonable. If they fail––and the best bet is that they don't there––shareholders will be caught like Wile E Coyote spinning his wheels over that cavernous ravine.
The analysts polled by S&P predict that profits for 2021 will hit $157.12 per share. That's a big, 12.7% rise over the 2019 summit. Even if we assume that the S&P goes flat following its Saint Patrick's Day close of 3970 for the remainder of 2021, it would end the year at a PE of 25.3. That's almost 10% more expensive than in Q4 of 2019, when its multiple was already higher than at virtually any time since the end of the Great Recession.
Wall Street's forecasts for earnings are almost always too rosy. But if you truly believe that the S&P is still a buy, you also have to believe that $157 a share, or even more, is eminently achievable. What are the chances of getting there? A excellent gauge is measuring the S&P's total value versus the U.S. economy. That exercise comes in two parts. The first is determining whether its share of national income was low or inflated at the starting point––in our case at the end of 2019. The second is deciding whether earning would need to grow faster, slower or in tandem with reasonable projections of future GDP from there for PE multiples and earnings as percentage of national income to look reasonable.
The first measure isn't reassuring. Earnings were already extremely high by historical standards in Q4 of 2019. The S&P's combined market cap equalled 126% of GDP. That's over one-fifth higher than the 99% reading in mid-2016, when we were already well into the historic boom. The CAPE index invented by economist Robert Shiller suggests that EPS in 2019 was inflated by 10% to 15% in late 2019.
Second, it's true that the U.S. will enjoy a big growth spurt this year. The Congressional Budget Office predicts GDP will rise at 6.3% in 2021 over last year, including inflation . Sounds pretty good. But take this into account: that 2021 projection represents just a slender projected 3.8% higher than the figure for 2019. A highly optimistic projection would show EPS rising arm-in-arm with GDP over that two-year period by 3.8%. If we start with pre-pandemic benchmark S&P profits of $139.47 in Q4 of 2019, we'd reach $145 by the close of this year.
In that still-hopeful forecast, if stocks go sideways for the rest of the year, the S&P's PE would finish the year at 27.6, 19% percent higher than its pre-COVID level, and almost 40% above the thirty year, pre-COVID average. But that's not at all what Wall Street's predicting. The market strategists at Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, and J.P. Morgan Chase all see the index rising more than 8% from here. If it indeed hits the Goldman and Credit Suisse targets of 4300, the multiple, based on earnings of $146, will hit 29.5.
The clincher is the amount of GDP that profits would need to consume. Even assuming the S&P stalls right here at 3970, it would have a total valuation of $34 trillion at year end. That's 152% of projected GDP for this year. We've never seen a number like that before, and we're unlikely to this time. That outcome would mean much less income going to labor, and tons more flowing to the shareholder class. It won't happen.
It's the realization that profits can't grow to the sky will end the bull market. And the longer this craziness goes on, the worse the reckoning to come.
